Schilling: Sign Beckett -- Now

[Dojji]

http://38pitches.com/2010/02/08/why-you-sign-josh-beckett-today/

 

You lock Josh up you lock up the top 3 spots in your rotation (well 4 if you don’t trade Clay) for the next 3-5 years, and each of those spots is occupied by a 1 or a 2. In the AL East you go into each season with a legitimate shot at winning it all with that mix.

 

Schill apparently isn't counting Daisuke there. Probably understandable. Regardless, Beckett is certainly at least as likely to take us over the top as anyone we brought in to replace him.

 

Here’s the other thing. Whatever you perceive Josh’s value to be at the end of this deal the one thing you know for sure is that he’ll still be giving you every ounce of everything he has, that’s just who he is. You cannot say the same thing for other guys around the league.

 

A strong endorsement from a player also well known as a man who would reach deep down and give you his last drop of blood.

[Imperial59]

I don't care what Schilling says. I'd rather sign Cliff Lee.

[Dojji]

I'm not against Lee, but I wonder what you think Lee provides that Beckett wouldn't, considering we already have Lester for our rotation lefty.

[Imperial59]

I'm not against Lee' date=' but I wonder what you think Lee provides that Beckett wouldn't, considering we already have Lester for our rotation lefty.[/quote']

 

He's a better pitcher, who cares what side of the mound he throws from?

[Cocos Disciples]

Yeah, I'd take Lee over Beckett in an instant. Before 2009, Beckett's advantage over Lee was his playoff experience, but Lee was pretty awesome last year. Plus it's not like the rotation would be stacked with lefties. With Lester and Lee they would still be a minority. But I wouldn't be heartbroken if we resigned Beckett either.

[Dojji]

I want to wait to see how this season pans out. I'm still not really sold on Lee -- not that his last 2 years have been anything other than excellent, but he's been up and down a bit over his career. It would be a shame, and typical, if we got him just as he was going to hit a downswing anyway and Beckett signs with someone inconvenient and does much better..

 

I have no problem with bringing him in, since even his downside is pretty danged solid, since even in the worst case scenario he's a durable lefthander with elite control, but Becks... I feel he's earned a certain loyalty from me and I just want him to stay. 2007 was not that long ago and I think the difference between Beckett and Lee in an already great rotation aren't worth the risks involved in bringing in a new guy. As long as Becks doesn't flame out or get critically hurt I'd rather just keep him.

 

This is all just MHO.

[TheMino007]

I would try to work out an extension with him before he hits free agency. Right now he is probably worth John Lackey type money, and for the talent that he is, I'm fine with paying him that type of money. Maybe you throw an a couple player option years on the end of a 4 year deal worth $20 million. If Beckett has a great year this year and hits free agency, he will demand CC Sabbathia type money, or more, at least 20+ mill a year. At that point, I don't think the Sox would give Beckett that type of money or a long term deal.

[suns]

The Red Sox need to sign Beckett and forget about Lee.

[Dipre]

And why would that be? And i hope to God you don't say something about him signing with the Guardians.

 

My only gripe about Lee is that he might command the same number of years and more money than Beckett, but he's actually two years older. That is significant time when awarding a contract to a pitcher.

[Emmz]

I'll take Lee over Beckett too, and I don't know how you can't be sold on Lee, he's proven himself to be a top-notch pitcher the past two seasons, one of which he was practically unbeatable, and the other he showed he was capable of pitching well in the postseason. He out-pitched CC, when I recall practically everyone on this site said that CC was "vastly" superior. (This even though Lee put up as good, or better numbers in the AL than CC did)

[Dipre]

Ah yes, the "Vastly superior argument". It felt delicious when Lee outdueled CC.

[Dojji]

I guess the reason it's so easy to underestimate Lee is that he isn't truly a big strikeout guy -- or wasn't until he spent half a year in the National League. He's got generational level command and he's made some kind of adjustment that makes it much harder to square him up so he just plain doesn't allow baserunners -- at all. That makes being a dominant pitcher a lot easier. Just ask Schilling in his later years.

 

But 2007 wasn't that long ago either. And neither was 2005, the last time Lee broke out -- and then promptly got stuffed back in the bottle.The guy has had an up and down career, more so even than Josh Beckett, so if you're going to claim he's that much better than Beckett, you do have to deal with the worry that he might turn back into a pumpkin. As a big righthanded power arm with high strikeout numbers (and nearly Lee's level of command), that's a slightly smaller concern for Beckett.

 

O and while we're at it, Lee's h/9 is nothing to write home about. The guy just does not miss bats, and it will come back to bite him if he can't adjust.

[Dipre]

I guess the reason it's so easy to underestimate Lee is that he isn't trsllu a big strikeout guy -- or wasn't until he spent half a year in the National League. He's got generational level command and he's made some kind of adjustment that makes it much harder to square him up so he just plain doesn't allow baserunners -- at all. That makes being a dominant pitcher a lot easier. Just ask Schilling in his later years.

 

But 2007 wasn't that long ago either. And neither was 2005, the last time Lee broke out -- and then promptly got stuffed back in the bottle. If you're going to claim he's that much better than Beckett, you do have to deal with the worry that he might turn back into a pumpkin.

 

Problem is, it goes both ways.

 

Beckett got his ass kicked in '06.

 

Made the adjustments in '07.

 

Was "meh" in '08.

 

Was very good in '09. But not in '07 levels.

 

They both have a lot to prove, but it's dishonest to say that taking the last two years as a simple size, Lee hasn't been a much more dominant pitcher, which is why 2009 is crucial for assesing their respective values.

[Dojji]

I like Beckett's secondary numbers more.

 

Lee wins on walks -- but not by that much. Beckett allows slightly fewer hits and significantly more strikeouts. Home runs are a wash.

 

That's what I mean about regression potential. Lee misses fewer bats than Beckett does, it's just a fact. No matter how good his command is a h/9 of more than 9 is going to come back to hurt him at some point.

 

Beckett had the lower WHIP between himself and Lee last year, just by the by.

[Dipre]

I like Beckett's fundamental numbers more.

 

Lee wins on walks. Beckett allows signifiicantly fewer hits and significantly more strikeouts. Home runs are a wash.

 

That's what I mean about regression potential. Lee misses fewer bats than Beckett does, it's just a fact. No matter how good his command is a h/9 of more than 9 is going to come back to hurt him at some point.

 

It's harder for it to bite you in the ass if you have a SO/BB over 4.

[Dojji]

Sure, but if you're allowing that many hits, it means you've got baserunners anyway -- they were just able to earn it on you. Tell me that's not a problem if Lee comes to Boston -- a lefthanded pitcher that hitters can hit in a park with a short left field wall.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Beckett's had 2 good seasons out of his 4 total in Boston. But we should lock him up now and give him the cookie before this season even starts (and if it's bad or forgettable, that's 2 good years out of 5 with the Sox... what a great option to pay out the ass for)? Christ. Schilling's just talking like an ex-player who wants to see his buddy and former teammate get a free pay day with zero regard for the team's best interest.

[Dipre]

Sure' date=' but if you're allowing that many hits, it means you've got baserunners anyway -- they were just able to earn it on you. Tell me that's not a problem if Lee comes to Boston -- a lefthanded pitcher that hitters can hit in a park with a short left field wall.[/quote']

 

1)Citizens Bank Park.

 

2) Jon Lester.

[Dojji]

Jon Lester misses bats.

 

Fenway is not an easy place for a lefthander to pitch at the best of times. Lester's just that awesome.

 

Citizen's Bank Park was a worse overall offensive ballpark than Fenway last year.

 

It's an easier HR park than Fenway, but Fenway is the king of doubles.

[Spudboy]

"Honest question".

 

Is Beckett an "elite" pitcher?

[Keeper]

To be elite, you have to be an ace. Beckett has pitched like an ace before, but not year in, year out. If we're talking about top tier pitchers, I would say Beckett just misses the cut.

[Dojji]

What's your working definition of "pitches like an ace," and why does Lackey and not Beckett quality?

[jacksonianmarch]

Lee is a better bet going forward IMO, because his game plays better with age. Lee isnt a power guy, although he can reach 94mph at times. He's a movement guy who can hit a dime on the corner of the plate every single time. Plus, his loopy curve is nasty and his changeup is retardedly good. He's the kind of guy who can still give you ace level performance topping out at 88-89mph. Beckett's game is power and command, but without a 96mph fastball, I dont think he'd play nearly as well.

[YAZMAN]

Translation: I hope Theo gets carried away again, I'd love to see Becks in pinstripes.

[Spudboy]

Translation: I hope Theo gets carried away again' date=' I'd love to see Becks in pinstripes.[/quote']

 

I don't think so. Any team would like to have Beckett in the rotation.

 

Jacko just added his $.02 worth. He may be a homer, but he knows more than just a little bit about the subject.

 

I hope Beckett has a good year this season. I'm apprehensive to some degree, because of his mid-late season injuries and difficulties of late.

 

Never the less, when he's on, he is one of the dominant pitchers in the game. I suspect that he needs to throw less innings earlier in the season so he can be effective in August, September, and hopefully, October.

[Emmz]

He's retardedly good.

[YAZMAN]

Jacko just added his $.02 worth. He may be a homer' date=' but he knows more than just a little bit about the subject.[/quote']

 

I know. We go all the way back to '04, I've had a bunch of great baseball conversations with him, not just MLB. We actually played for rival teams in the same college conference, I stopped coaching for my alma mater a few years before he played.

[Dipre]

Jon Lester misses bats.

 

Fenway is not an easy place for a lefthander to pitch at the best of times. Lester's just that awesome.

 

Citizen's Bank Park was a worse overall offensive ballpark than Fenway last year.

 

It's an easier HR park than Fenway, but Fenway is the king of doubles.

 

Check Lester's 2008 performance. Then get back to me.

 

Park factors also fluctuate due to the quality of the pitching staff. You know this. Try HR tracker.

[Keeper]

What's your working definition of "pitches like an ace' date='" and why does Lackey and not Beckett quality?[/quote']

 

Consistent dominance and durability. Beckett has never been a lock for 30 starts and has only been dominant for 1 season with the Sox and parts of seasons with the Marlins. Lackey was an ace for about 3 seasons. He has been good (not great) the last 2 seasons.

[Spudboy]

Consistent dominance and durability. Beckett has never been a lock for 30 starts and has only been dominant for 1 season with the Sox and parts of seasons with the Marlins. Lackey was an ace for about 3 seasons. He has been good (not great) the last 2 seasons.

 

This is the best definition of an "elite" pitcher. Think Pedro.