Schilling: Sign Beckett -- Now

[TheKilo]

His velocity is going to be the first thing to go. And I'm not excited about having a 35 year old Beckett getting lit up on his 93 mph fastball and not knowing how to make the adjustment. He's a thrower' date=' not much of a pitcher.[/quote']

 

Were you saying this in 2007 or from MAy to July last year?

[Imperial59]

That is ridiculously untrue. When he came here, he was a thrower, but look at his command, look at his stuff, and more importantly, look at the results over the last 3 years.

 

Fenway isn't the easiest place to pitch, but Beckett came here and clicked. He does have moments where he gets into the habit of just trying to throw gas and blow it by people, but he does know how to locate, he does use his offspeed stuff, and that makes his fastball all the more effective. All he has to do to sustain that is be proactive about expanding his arsenal a bit as he loses his heat, and keep locating.

 

Your criticisms of Josh Beckett are about 4 years out of date, my friend.

 

 

I think we can both have differing opinions without saying the other person is "ridiculously untrue" or "4 years out of date". That really doesn't add anything to the conversation. Beckett still does, and always has thrown his fastball 2/3rds of the time. I just don't see that playing out very well when his fastball is 93 mph and he's still trying to throw it by everyone.

[Dipre]

I think we should just wait to see how this year plays out. I've been waiting for Beckett to finish "refining" his changeup ever since the Sox got him, but Imperial, Beckett's curveball is a plus-plus pitch, no ifs or buts about it. His pitch selection is the most easily fixable part of his game.

[Imperial59]

Were you saying this in 2007 or from MAy to July last year?

 

The cherry-picking in this thread is quite funny.

 

I'd have to agree with you Kilo, it's a riot

[Imperial59]

I think we should just wait to see how this year plays out. I've been waiting for Beckett to finish "refining" his changeup ever since the Sox got him' date=' but Imperial, Beckett's curveball is a plus-plus pitch, no ifs or buts about it. His pitch selection is the most easily fixable part of his game.[/quote']

 

I don't think anyone here was knocking his curveball.

[Dojji]

 

I think we can both have differing opinions without saying the other person is "ridiculously untrue" or "4 years out of date". That really doesn't add anything to the conversation. Beckett still does, and always has thrown his fastball 2/3rds of the time. I just don't see that playing out very well when his fastball is 93 mph and he's still trying to throw it by everyone.

 

He throws his fastball 2/3 of the time because it's a damn good pitch and he should be using it as his bread and butter. If you think he's still going to do it when he only tops out at 93, I have two things to say to that.

 

1: He has enough movement on his heater that he probably SHOULD continue to use Old Number 1 as his primary offering at "only" faster than most big league pitchers can throw, especially if he keeps locating it. Heck, Schilling kept living on his fastball and split fastball when he was only throwing 89-90, and he did a dang good job with it.

 

2: He has no problem going to his secondary stuff in appropriate situations now, I have no reason to believe he'll suddenly DEVELOP a reluctance to do so as he gets older.

 

Your concern isn't one. Next.

[Imperial59]

He throws his fastball 2/3 of the time because it's a damn good pitch and he should be using it as his bread and butter. If you think he's still going to do it when he only tops out at 93, I have two things to say to that.

 

1: He has enough movement on his heater that he probably SHOULD continue to use Old Number 1 as his primary offering at "only" faster than most big league pitchers can throw, especially if he keeps locating it. Heck, Schilling kept living on his fastball and split fastball when he was only throwing 89-90, and he did a dang good job with it.

 

2: He has no problem going to his secondary stuff in appropriate situations now, I have no reason to believe he'll suddenly DEVELOP a reluctance to do so as he gets older.

 

Your concern isn't one. Next.

 

 

If he has such great movement on his fastball and he goes to his secondary stuff in appropriate situations then why's he give up a home run every 9 innings?

[Imperial59]

Another thing to consider, Beckett has had shoulder issues in the past and pitchers with shoulder injuries don't have a very good track record. Once a shoulder goes bad, doctors don't really know how to fix it completely.

[a700hitter]

Another thing to consider' date=' Beckett has had shoulder issues in the past and pitchers with shoulder injuries don't have a very good track record. Once a shoulder goes bad, doctors don't really know how to fix it completely.[/quote']In 2008, Beckett visited a specialist who examined his arm and he found that his arm was in very good condition considering his age and innings pitched.

[Dipre]

Beckett: No blisters. No problem.

[Imperial59]

In 2008' date=' Beckett visited a specialist who examined his arm and he found that his arm was in very good condition considering his age and innings pitched.[/quote']

 

Do you have a source? I know he tore his labrum in 2000 and one of the specialists he went to see told him he'd probably need surgery on it eventually.

 

http://www.jockbio.com/Bios/Beckett/Beckett_bio.html

[a700hitter]

Do you have a source?

Boston Globe article in 2008.

[Imperial59]

Boston Globe article in 2008.

 

EDIT: I assume this is the article you're talking about.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/08/30/beckett_aces_all_his_tests/

 

They ran tests on his elbow, not his shoulder.

[a700hitter]

EDIT: I assume this is the article you're talking about.

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/08/30/beckett_aces_all_his_tests/

 

They ran tests on his elbow, not his shoulder.

They ran the tests on his elbow, because Beckett, not the Sox, was concerned about tingling in his arm. The Sox Doctors had cleared him to pitch. They tested his elbow, because that was his concern, not the shoulder. Beckett has had no shoulder concerns since 2000. He has missed no time with shoulder issues of any sort in his four years with the Red Sox.

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/02/09/the-importance-of-josh-becketts-shoulder/

 

So, he has had no problem with his shoulder in many years and he has a clean bill of health on his elbow as well.

[Imperial59]

They ran the tests on his elbow, because Beckett, not the Sox, was concerned about tingling in his arm. The Sox Doctors had cleared him to pitch. They tested his elbow, because that was his concern, not the shoulder. Beckett has had no shoulder concerns since 2000. He has missed no time with shoulder issues of any sort in his four years with the Red Sox.

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2010/02/09/the-importance-of-josh-becketts-shoulder/

 

So, he has had no problem with his shoulder in many years and he has a clean bill of health on his elbow as well.

 

I understand why they tested his elbow but I was discussing that he has a slight history of shoulder injury and you gave me a source about his elbow looking healthy in 2008. Who knows what kind of scar tissue he may or may not have in his shoulder.

 

I'm not saying he's going to go on the DL, but shoulder injuries are very hard for pitchers to overcome, so it's something to keep in mind when signing someone to a long-term deal. It could be a deal breaker for the Sox like Bay's knees were this offseason. Or perhaps the Sox could negotiate a shoulder clause like they did with Drew.

[Dojji]

 

If he has such great movement on his fastball and he goes to his secondary stuff in appropriate situations then why's he give up a home run every 9 innings?

 

Because he still hasn't quite put it all together yet. That's the terrifying thing about Beckett. He's good now, but you have an idea how great he could be when it all clicks.

 

Besides, his apparent "competition" also allows a home run every 9 innings over his career, besides being significantly more hittable than Beckett.

[Imperial59]

Because he still hasn't quite put it all together yet. That's the terrifying thing about Beckett. He's good now, but you have an idea how great he could be when it all clicks.

 

Besides, his apparent "competition" also allows a home run every 9 innings over his career, besides being significantly more hittable than Beckett.

 

What hasn't he put together? You claimed he had great movement on his fastball, he has great breaking stuff, and he knows when to throw his breaking stuff.

 

P.S. - Lee has allowed 0.5 and 0.7 HR/9 IP the last two years respectively. He's not the same pitcher he was before when he'd routinely allow more than a home run every 9 innings.

[a700hitter]

I understand why they tested his elbow but I was discussing that he has a slight history of shoulder injury and you gave me a source about his elbow looking healthy in 2008. Who knows what kind of scar tissue he may or may not have in his shoulder.

 

I'm not saying he's going to go on the DL, but shoulder injuries are very hard for pitchers to overcome, so it's something to keep in mind when signing someone to a long-term deal. It could be a deal breaker for the Sox like Bay's knees were this offseason. Or perhaps the Sox could negotiate a shoulder clause like they did with Drew.

His shoulder was MRI'd after 2007. From the Bradford article:

 

Beckett also underwent an MRI following the 2007 season as part of the process to potentially getting insurance, which he also identified as not raising any new red flags.

[Imperial59]

His shoulder was MRI'd after 2007. From the Bradford article:

 

The MRI didn't raise any new red flags. Meaning it's quite possible that it did show some damage that the Red Sox were already aware of.

[a700hitter]

Were you saying this in 2007 or from MAy to July last year?

Who do you think would be the better pitcher to sign long term? You are defending Beckett. Do you think he is clearly the better choice than Lee, and if so, on what are you basing your opinion?

[Dojji]

What hasn't he put together? You claimed he had great movement on his fastball' date=' he has great breaking stuff, and he knows when to throw his breaking stuff.[/quote']

 

We've been over this. Try to keep up.

 

P.S. - Lee has allowed 0.5 and 0.7 HR/9 IP the last two years respectively. He's not the same pitcher he was before when he'd routinely allow more than a home run every 9 innings.

 

The world didn't start in 2008 and it didn't end in 2009, you have to consider a pitcher's whole body of work. Why is that so easy to do with Beckett's injury history and not with Lee's performance history?

 

He's still way too hittable for me to be particularly tempted to bring him to a park where off-handed hitters are augmented by park factors.

[a700hitter]

The MRI didn't raise any new red flags. Meaning it's quite possible that it did show some damage that the Red Sox were already aware of.

If his shoulder is in the same condition that it was in after the 2005 season, then that is an excellent sign. Most pitchers have deterioration from wear and tear year after year. No changes to his MRI coupled with no shoulder issues in the last 4 season makes his shoulder seem like a pretty safe bet.

[Dojji]

Who do you think would be the better pitcher to sign long term? You are defending Beckett. Do you think he is clearly the better choice than Lee' date=' and if so, on what are you basing your opinion?[/quote']

 

I'm not Kilo, but I hold the same opinion, and it's based on my belief that Lee is somewhat more likely to regress immediately once brought to Fenway, that he isn't a great fit for the park, and also my sense that Beckett will probably age better.

[a700hitter]

I'm not Kilo' date=' but I hold the same opinion, and it's based on my belief that Lee is somewhat more likely to regress immediately once brought to Fenway, that he isn't a great fit for the park, and also my sense that Beckett will probably age better.[/quote']I understand the concerns presented by the ballpark, but the "aging better" argument has no support. If anything, for some reason lefties seem to survive as productive pitchers long after they lose their heaters. I don't think there is a clear cut winner between Beckett and Lee. Nothing in this thread has provided a compelling argument either way.

[Dojji]

Then the compelling argument is probably "Better the devil you know." We know Beckett can be a productive pitcher here -- maybe not an ace at all times, but above average certainly. We can guess, but we actually don't really know that about Lee. So if there isn't that much to choose from, and no real compelling reason to take one for the other, why rock the boat?

[a700hitter]

Then the compelling argument is probably "Better the devil you know." We know Beckett can be a productive pitcher here -- maybe not an ace at all times' date=' but above average certainly. We can guess, but we actually don't really know that about Lee. So if there isn't that much to choose from, and no real compelling reason to take one for the other, why rock the boat?[/quote']I can agree with that, because I don't see the potential for a big upgrade with Lee.

[Imperial59]

We've been over this. Try to keep up.

 

So just to clarify, which one of your arguments am I supposed to be "keeping up" with? The one where you claim that he struggles with pitch selection at times and tries to throw his fastball by everyone...

 

Half his problem right now is that he he thinks he can get his heat past anyone, anywhere, anytime. He mostly unlearned that in '06, but he still does relapse from time to time -- that game in '08 against the Brewers is a classic example, dominant performance except for two pitches, both of which were fastballs that left in a hurry.

 

He gets fully disabused of his young-pitcher ideas and at some point he'll actually start pitching, and I think we'd be pleasantly surprised by the result.

 

...or the argument where you say that I'm "ridiculously untrue" when I say he struggles with pitch selection at times and tries to throw his fastball by everyone?

 

That is ridiculously untrue. When he came here' date=' he was a thrower, but look at his command, look at his stuff, and more importantly, look at the results over the last 3 years.[/quote']

[Imperial59]

If his shoulder is in the same condition that it was in after the 2005 season' date=' then that is an excellent sign. Most pitchers have deterioration from wear and tear year after year. No changes to his MRI coupled with no shoulder issues in the last 4 season makes his shoulder seem like a pretty safe bet.[/quote']

 

It's a pretty safe bet now, but will a 35 year old pitcher with some previous shoulder damage be a safe bet? That's what I'm not sold on.

[Dojji]

So just to clarify, which one of your arguments am I supposed to be "keeping up" with? The one where you claim that he struggles with pitch selection at times and tries to throw his fastball by everyone...

 

 

 

...or the argument where you say that I'm "ridiculously untrue" when I say he struggles with pitch selection at times and tries to throw his fastball by everyone?

 

Sure, because you're exaggerating the problem. When a guy generally does the right thing, has great command and good strikeout rates, the odd brainfart of bull-headed moment doesn't make him a thrower rather than a pitcher, because 85% or more of the time the guy's doing exactly what you expect of him.

[Dojji]

It's a pretty safe bet now' date=' but will a 35 year old pitcher with some previous shoulder damage be a safe bet? That's what I'm not sold on.[/quote']

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/02/09/blessing-in-disguise-mariners-not-sweating-injury-to-cliff-lee/

 

because a guy who had surgery this preseason is a much better bet to stay healthy longterm than a guy who hasn't had a shoulder problem or any other health problem bigger than a blister or a pulled muscle since he turned 21.