Am I the only one a bit nervous about John Lackey?

[Dojji]

I see a lot of excitement over the Lackey signing, and while I'm glad the Red Sox made the investment, and think it was a good decision when they made it, I can't really join in the celebration over that signing with unbridled enthusiasm.

 

It seems to me that we're taking a fair-sized risk on a pitcher whose career peak was 3 years ago now, who pitched mostly in a pitcher's haven of a division (although I think the Angels' park is one of the more neutral parks in the pitcher-friendly West, the fact remains that even with neutral packs, AL Western offense has been extremely weak over the last few seasons) and who's struggled on and off with injuries each of the preceding two seasons.

 

I'm not the kind to panic-monger, my major malfunction tends to run in the other direction after all, but am I really the only one who's looking at some of those underlying facts and sort of more hoping that this guy doesn't unravel on is than actually believing he'll be effective over the lifetime of his deal? The bust potential on this guy is not exactly minimal after all, he's been used hard and he's used to a much bigger margin of error than he'll get in Boston.

 

I'm sure I'll be ripped apart for posting this, at least a little bit, especially because I'm providing near-perfect Jacko fodder but as you guys whet your knives just take a second to think about it and tell me you're not at least a little on guard over this issue yourself.

[rhet]

The one pitcher on the Sox whose health doesn't worry me is the one that had cancer.

[Dipre]

The one pitcher on the Sox whose health doesn't worry me is the one that had cancer.

 

Yet another signature-worthy post. Well done!

[Imperial59]

I see a lot of excitement over the Lackey signing, and while I'm glad the Red Sox made the investment, and think it was a good decision when they made it, I can't really join in the celebration over that signing with unbridled enthusiasm.

 

It seems to me that we're taking a fair-sized risk on a pitcher whose career peak was 3 years ago now, who pitched mostly in a pitcher's haven of a division (although I think the Angels' park is one of the more neutral parks in the pitcher-friendly West, the fact remains that even with neutral packs, AL Western offense has been extremely weak over the last few seasons) and who's struggled on and off with injuries each of the preceding two seasons.

 

I'm not the kind to panic-monger, my major malfunction tends to run in the other direction after all, but am I really the only one who's looking at some of those underlying facts and sort of more hoping that this guy doesn't unravel on is than actually believing he'll be effective over the lifetime of his deal? The bust potential on this guy is not exactly minimal after all, he's been used hard and he's used to a much bigger margin of error than he'll get in Boston.

 

I'm sure I'll be ripped apart for posting this, at least a little bit, especially because I'm providing near-perfect Jacko fodder but as you guys whet your knives just take a second to think about it and tell me you're not at least a little on guard over this issue yourself.

 

He's been a horse over most of his career and he's done better against AL East teams (not including the Red Sox) than he has AL West teams (not including the Angels) over his career.

 

There's a chance he gets hurt and only starts 25 games, but there's also a chance that he pitches 200 innings with an ERA around 3.50. PECOTA predicted that he'd match Sabathia in VORP next year.

[example1]

I think there's always reason to be anxous about pitchers Lackey's age. At the same time, there's no anxiety about him transitioning from the NL to the AL and there's no question about his toughness or ability to perform in big games. If he were coming from an NL team or a non-perannial contender then we would worry about those things.

 

What the Lackey move does is assure good pitching depth with a very high ceiling. The way I see it, if the Red Sox get two really good seasons (5+ WAR) from their starting five they will have a good chance of making the playoffs. If they get three really good seasons from their starting five they will contend for the division.

[riverside sluggers]

Id be more worried about the tail end of his contract, rather than year 1

[SCM33]

I'm sure I'll be ripped apart for posting this' date=' at least a little bit, especially because I'm providing near-perfect Jacko fodder but as you guys whet your knives just take a second to think about it and tell me you're not at least a little on guard over this issue yourself.[/quote']

 

You wont be ripped, I too am not quite sure what we will get. In my mind, hes not an ace, but not a #2 either. He is a top of the rotation starter, a #1 on an average to above average team, and a #2 on a above average to excellent team. I think that we have to expect him to put up numbers a little worse to those that he put up in ANA, but that doesnt mean he will have a bad year, the AL East is a tough pitchers division with the Bandbox in New York and Fenway Park making up 40% of the stadiums in the division. Like its been said in this thread, he may fade before the end of the deal.

[Keeper]

Eh, not that worried.

[a700hitter]

I don't understand the concern. We added a proven starter-- the ace of one of the best teams in the league. Why would people be concerned? I'd be more concerned if Wakefield and Buchholz were taking two spots in the rotation. It is much better that they are vying for 1 spot. Injury can happen to anyone at anytime, so why worry. I'm concerned about losing our most productive offensive player.

[TheMino007]

I'm a bit about nervous about Lackey too in all honestly. In the last two years he hasn't made more than 30 starts and has made stints on the DL. He hasn't surpased 180 inninngs in the last two years, and his ERA has gone up from his 3.01 mark in 2007 to 3.80 last year.

[Keeper]

I'm a bit about nervous about Lackey too in all honestly. In the last two years he hasn't made more than 30 starts and has made stints on the DL. He hasn't surpased 180 inninngs in the last two years' date=' and his ERA has gone up from his 3.01 mark in 2007 to 3.80 last year.[/quote']

 

He would have surpassed 180 innings last season if he hadn't got ejected in the 1st inning of his 1st start. For the most part, Lackey has been a horse in his career. He's only 31. Not exactly a true ace, but I don't think he has to be one on the Sox, considering he's their #3.

[Imperial59]

He would have surpassed 180 innings last season if he hadn't got ejected in the 1st inning of his 1st start. For the most part' date=' Lackey has been a horse in his career. He's only 31. Not exactly a true ace, but I don't think he has to be one on the Sox, considering he's their #3.[/quote']

 

Yeah, he did make 27 starts last year so his injury issues are a bit overblown. 2008 was the only year of his seven year career (since he became a regular starter) that he didn't make 27 starts.

[riverside sluggers]

I like his control. In the past 3 years he's had seasons of 52, 40, 47 walks

[Imperial59]

I like his control. In the past 3 years he's had seasons of 52' date=' 40, 47 walks[/quote']

 

Yeah, I think he's a bit underrated because he doesn't have the sexy strikeouts that a guy like Beckett does, but his career stats are very similar. Imagine having a pitcher of Beckett's caliber or better pitching the majority of our game next year. I'm really looking forward to it. I've always enjoyed good pitching more than offense.

[Plumpamania]

Lester - Beckett - Lackey .... Matsuzaka and Bucch or Wake at the end..

 

 

 

Bring on the Yankees, and peg Jeter in the face.

[Imperial59]

Lester - Beckett - Lackey .... Matsuzaka and Bucch or Wake at the end..

 

 

 

Bring on the Yankees, and peg Jeter in the face.

 

Yeah, I have a feeling the next time Chamberlain throws a pitch at Youk's head, Jeter's gonna get one in the head with guys like Beckett, Lackey and Buchholz in the rotation.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

I'm nervous about Lackey too. Every time I've seen him he never really wowed me, except that one game where he nearly no hit the sox. I think it's a nice signing, but I'm not expecting anything great out of the dude, to be honest.

[Dipre]

Yeah' date=' I have a feeling the next time Chamberlain throws a pitch at Youk's head, Jeter's gonna get one in the head with guys like Beckett, Lackey and Buchholz in the rotation.[/quote']

 

I doubt Bucholz intentionally throws at anyone. Lackey and Beckett, for the other hand, will probably be quick to head-hunt if Chamberlain keeps up his shenanigans.

[BOSOX11]

I've seen Lackey pitch in quite a few games and have never been overly impressed. He's a damn good pitcher and will fit in quite nicely in the BoSox rotation. He's a gamer, that's for sure.

[a700hitter]

Am I the only one who is concerned that we let our most productive hitter walk?

[Spudboy]

Am I the only one who is concerned that we let our most productive hitter walk?

 

No.

[Dipre]

Am i the only one who is concerned that Tito will play Varitek way more than he should?

[a700hitter]

Am i the only one who is concerned that Tito will play Varitek way more than he should?

No

[Dipre]

Also, am i the only one concerned that jackass Papelbon will keep refusing to throw the split 'cause he's a dick?

[Red Foreman]

Am I the only one who is concerned that we let our most productive hitter walk?

 

No.

[Spudboy]

Am I the only one who is concerned that the Sox rotation may not live up to it's billing?

[mvp 78]

I actually had a dream last night that Lackey was pitching with a 5 run lead. He ended up giving up 6 home runs in an inning (3 of which to people who had never hit one in the majors before).

Apparently I'm already prepared for the worst. I think he'll be ok though.

[Dipre]

Am I the only one who is concerned that the Sox rotation may not live up to it's billing?

 

Probably.

 

Specially since Beckett's in a contract year.

[Spudboy]

Well I think there are some big question marks.

 

Beckett is one of them. He may be dominant for 10-12 games then get shelled for 6-8. Why?

 

Lester is the stud of the rotation. I have no apprehension about him at all.

 

Lackey will likely do what he does.

 

Dice -K is an enigma. I will never be comfortable with him taking the mound. On his best days he befuddles hitters and goes maybe 6 productive innings. Great. But most of the time he teeters on the abyss. How can anyone be comfortable with that?

 

Buck has to come into camp with his head together and keep it there for 30 starts. We have not seen this from him yet.

 

Wakefield will probably be his normal self. Making hitters look stupid one start, and getting shelled the next.

 

So, no, I'm not as confident about the rotation as some here are.

[Dipre]

As Jacko has said 9,567 times, what you really need are three solid starters and a couple people who can eat innings and be a bit better than league average.

 

They have the best top three in the game, and three starters that can be above league average.

 

Besides that, every pitcher ever has some inconsistency. You're complaining about Beckett's rough stretch but forget Lester had one of his own early in the year. You also forgot Bucholz. I'd like to see another team (besides maybe the Yanks) who's trotting out a number five with as much upside as Bucholz, but that's just me, i like to be optimistic, specially if what my eyes tell me and the stats (plus typical pitcher trends) portend to a good year from the rotation.

 

After 2004 and 2007, i've discovered the beauty of not being a defeatist most of the time and being optimistic, specially if a situation (like the Sox rotation) calls for it.