Sox Withdrew Offer to Bay in July Because of MRI

[a700hitter]

J.J. Putz recently spoke out about what a mess the Mets are. Among other things, he said:

 

 

 

 

 

So I think I'm gonna side with the Red Sox doctors on this Jason Bay issue :thumbsup:

If the Mets didn't examine him thoroughly, that would make the Mets and Bay unlikely sources of the MRI report. That would leave...

[Imperial59]

If the Mets didn't examine him thoroughly' date=' that would make the Mets and Bay unlikely sources of the MRI report. That would leave...[/quote']

 

Do you really need to bring that up again?

[Dipre]

Holy f***, just drop the f***ing thing. Bay's a Met, and we're all happy with goofy-looking Lackey. Jesus Christ.

[a700hitter]

I don't see how the Mets not examining Bay thoroughly would make Bay any less likely to have released information about a physical done by the Red Sox.

Because it would make his new Employer look like fools. Do you really think he would be so stupid and indiscreet? I don't

[Imperial59]

Holy f***' date=' just drop the f***ing thing. Bay's a Met, and we're all happy with goofy-looking Lackey. Jesus Christ.[/quote']

 

I'd be a lot more happy with Lackey if he wasn't so inferior to Vazquez and his 4.53 ERA in the American League (4.18 over his career).

[Spudboy]

I heard about this the other day but just stumbled upon an article concerning the topic.

 

 

 

 

April 27th, 2010

UZR owes Jason Bay an apology

Posted by John Tomase at 10:42 am

 

This slipped through the cracks, but the good folks at FanGraphs — who are constantly tweaking their formulas in an effort to make them as accurate as possible — recently tackled what many within the game considered one of the biggest flaws of UZR, or Ultimate Zone Rating, which was treated as Gospel this winter during all the discussions of defense around these parts.

 

That flaw was UZR’s inability to handle quirky parks like Fenway, where left field and center field are of such strange configurations, they cannot be judged with a cookie cutter model.

 

It turns out that Mitchel Lichtman, the creator of UZR, agreed, so he augmented his model to better gauge things like left field at Fenway, or right field in Minnesota, or the entire outfield at Coors, as the FanGraphs people explain.

 

The upshot of these changes is that most players were relatively unaffected. However — and this is a big however — one player had his UZR significantly altered by the fixes, which were retroactively applied to old data: Jason Bay.

 

The former Red Sox outfielder, who was killed all winter for his horrendous defense (which was part of the justification for letting him sign a free agent deal with the Mets) saw his UZR shift from minus-13.8 runs to plus-1.9. Bay’s play in 2009 obviously didn’t change. Only the numbers did. And the new numbers say Bay was not horribly below average last year, but in fact saved the Red Sox a couple of runs in left.

 

It wouldn’t have made a difference as far as the Red Sox re-signing Bay — we now know that was an impossibility once their deal collapsed at the All-Star break over his medicals — but it would have at least changed the narrative. Maybe fans and media members wouldn’t have been so quick to give up on the biggest bat in the lineup if they hadn’t been able to lean on the “he can’t play defense” crutch.

[Gom]

LOL @ UZR and the fools that support the dumbest formula in baseball.

 

Not signing Bay is the biggest reason Boston will watch the playoffs in October.

[rhet]

I heard about this the other day but just stumbled upon an article concerning the topic.

 

 

 

 

April 27th, 2010

UZR owes Jason Bay an apology

Posted by John Tomase at 10:42 am

 

This slipped through the cracks, but the good folks at FanGraphs — who are constantly tweaking their formulas in an effort to make them as accurate as possible — recently tackled what many within the game considered one of the biggest flaws of UZR, or Ultimate Zone Rating, which was treated as Gospel this winter during all the discussions of defense around these parts.

 

That flaw was UZR’s inability to handle quirky parks like Fenway, where left field and center field are of such strange configurations, they cannot be judged with a cookie cutter model.

 

It turns out that Mitchel Lichtman, the creator of UZR, agreed, so he augmented his model to better gauge things like left field at Fenway, or right field in Minnesota, or the entire outfield at Coors, as the FanGraphs people explain.

 

The upshot of these changes is that most players were relatively unaffected. However — and this is a big however — one player had his UZR significantly altered by the fixes, which were retroactively applied to old data: Jason Bay.

 

The former Red Sox outfielder, who was killed all winter for his horrendous defense (which was part of the justification for letting him sign a free agent deal with the Mets) saw his UZR shift from minus-13.8 runs to plus-1.9. Bay’s play in 2009 obviously didn’t change. Only the numbers did. And the new numbers say Bay was not horribly below average last year, but in fact saved the Red Sox a couple of runs in left.

 

It wouldn’t have made a difference as far as the Red Sox re-signing Bay — we now know that was an impossibility once their deal collapsed at the All-Star break over his medicals — but it would have at least changed the narrative. Maybe fans and media members wouldn’t have been so quick to give up on the biggest bat in the lineup if they hadn’t been able to lean on the “he can’t play defense” crutch.

 

Oops! He went from an 'awful' fielder to an 'awfully good' fielder without touching a ball!

Think that'll change any minds around here?

[a700hitter]

I was at the game last night. He made a very nice running diving catch. He has thrown out a couple of runners too.

[a700hitter]

I never thought he was an awful fielder. I thought he was average.

[Spudboy]

I never thought he was an awful fielder. I thought he was average.

 

Same here.

[example1]

Oops! He went from an 'awful' fielder to an 'awfully good' fielder without touching a ball!

Think that'll change any minds around here?

 

Unless the Sox private metrics had the same flaw, there's reason to believe they still didn't think Bay was worth the price he was asking.

[rhet]

Unless the Sox private metrics had the same flaw' date=' there's reason to believe they still didn't think Bay was worth the price he was asking.[/quote']

 

The veracity of their "private metrics" is certainly in question. Bay was never the bad fielder the Sox hinted he was.

[example1]

The veracity of their "private metrics" is certainly in question. Bay was never the bad fielder the Sox hinted he was.

 

What makes the veracity of them be in question? The many years of playoff appearances, or the fact that they don't win the WS every year?

[rhet]

What makes the veracity of them be in question? The many years of playoff appearances' date=' or the fact that they don't win the WS every year?[/quote']

 

You still think Bay is a bad fielder?

[Gom]

The irony is that all the people that defend UZR are nowhere to be seen. Nor will you see them.

 

I'd take pleasure in proving them wrong, except for the fact that they are never right.

[a700hitter]

Unless the Sox private metrics had the same flaw' date=' there's reason to believe they still didn't think Bay was worth the price he was asking.[/quote']If they did think he was worth the price he was asking, he'd still be a Red Sox. The discussion here is about his fielding not his market value.

[Palodios]

Call it a hunch, but I'd say the Sox's private metrics include park-specific factors in their hundred year old stadium.

[Gom]

Call it a hunch' date=' but I'd say the Sox's private metrics include park-specific factors in their hundred year old stadium.[/quote']

 

I think your hunch is way off.

[TheMino007]

This is why people should not go by sabermetrics, they change and all of sudden a bad player can become above average.

[Gom]

This is why people should not go by sabermetrics' date=' they change and all of sudden a bad player can become above average.[/quote']

 

There is nothing wrong with sabermetrics. UZR is useless as a formula. It's no different than using Batting Average to determine a player's worth, or wins for a pitcher.

 

I take that back. Those two stats are more accurate than UZR.

[ORS]

Twit. Google "UZR" and "Fenway". This has been a topic of discussion for years. This isn't news.

[Gom]

Twit. Google "UZR" and "Fenway". This has been a topic of discussion for years. This isn't news.

 

The only discussion should have been how useless the stat is, moron.

[Keeper]

This does make UZR look like a very flawed metric.

[Chamomile]

Last I checked, the Red Sox didn't extend Bay because he had bad knees, not because of his fielding. And considering Bay has an .823 OPS and April is one of his best months, it looks like they made the right move

 

Besides, Jason Bay had poor fielding stats long before he came to the Red Sox. Seems like a non-issue if ever there was one.

[a700hitter]

So, his performance should track month by month what it has been in the past, and because April has been a historically good month, but now it is down, his performance should decline beginning this season? Is that what you are extrapolating from April? If so I completely disagree. If his offense declines, it will be because Citifield is a very tough park for power hitters. Although he only has 1 HR thus far, he has 3 triples. I've seen him leg out two of them in person, and I can report that he is running just fine. His legs looked plenty healthy when he made a running diving catch. He still busts it down to first base very quickly. The only guy on the Red Sox who is clearly faster than him is Ellsbury. Ikd have to see clocked times to convince me that anyone else is faster than him. I go to lots of games, and when I saw him play I was surprised at how well he runs.

[ORS]

This does make UZR look like a very flawed metric.

"Very"? Hardly. They made a tweak to account for unique park configuration effects, and they resulted with, according to the article, one player with significant result change. This is one player out of 180 starting outfielders, and it occurred for the fielder patrolling the most unique field in all parks (LF at Fenway). Very is far too strong a word.

[rhet]

Last I checked, the Red Sox didn't extend Bay because he had bad knees, not because of his fielding. And considering Bay has an .823 OPS and April is one of his best months, it looks like they made the right move

 

Besides, Jason Bay had poor fielding stats long before he came to the Red Sox. Seems like a non-issue if ever there was one.

 

They made the right decision because Bay has an .823 OPS this April? Really?

What's Drew's OPS this April? How about Beltre's? Or Cameron or Scutaro? Does the fact that they're all well under .823 mean the Sox made the wrong decision on them?

[rhet]

This does make UZR look like a very flawed metric.

 

No question about it.

[Dojji]

IT'S NOT ABOUT THIS YEAR people. If it was about this year Bay would be a Red Sox. The issue behind their reason not to sign Bay has to do with what they think he'll be in the middle to end of the deal -- 3-5 years from now. If that knee doesn't hold up Bay gets a lot less useful very quickly -- especially in the National League. Knee injuries affect both offense and defense at the same time.

 

Again -- it doesn't MATTER what he does this year. It doesn't matter if he MURDERS the ball THIS year. Not to the debate over whether or not to sign him to a 5 year deal anyway. The Red Sox fully intend to be contenders in 5 years too and Bay may or may not be useful by then.