Thoughts on Adrian Beltre?

[example1]

His OBP doesn't justify his salary demands.

 

His OBP makes his (Boras's) salary demands questionable. His power mitigates it a bit, and his glove helps a bit more, but I don't think it makes up the entire difference.

 

Again, I ask, if Mike Cameron signed for 2 years 15.5m, shouldn't Beltre get roughly the same AAV? Even with their age differences, Cameron is coming off a better year and has been the more consistent player.

[Imperial59]

With WARs that roughly match Cameron's' date=' why should the Sox pay anything more than 2/15m for Beltre? [/quote']

 

I agree, that's about what he's worth in my opinion. Just because Boras says his client is asking for $10 million+ a year, doesn't mean that's what Beltre will actually sign for.

[neilpatrickharris]

In a market where Chone Figgins (a significantly better player all-around) gets 9mil, how can Beltre (coming off a sub .700 OPS season) get anymore than 5-7mil?

 

What teams would pay more than that for Beltre? In a league where plus defense is only really highly valued by a few GM I just don't see a well below-average corner infielder getting more than what I suggested above.

[a700hitter]

In a market where Chone Figgins (a significantly better player all-around) gets 9mil, how can Beltre (coming off a sub .700 OPS season) get anymore than 5-7mil?

 

What teams would pay more than that for Beltre? In a league where plus defense is only really highly valued by a few GM I just don't see a well below-average corner infielder getting more than what I suggested above.

How could the Mets ever give Ollie Perez 3yrs/$36 million.

[BudLight]

I don't believe the Sox need to add Beltre at this point. Put Youk at third and Kotchman at first. I think Kotchman will be outstanding with his defense and a suitable replacement for Lowell's bat, and he's cheap. Thinking long term, the Sox will need to keep first base available in 2011 for Martinez if they plan on making a run at Mauer. Same thinking if they are serious about getting Gonzalez at the trade deadline this year, you have to put Youk at third now. Beltre is the odd man out in either of those situations, you wouldn't play him ahead of Youk at third.

[neilpatrickharris]

How could the Mets ever give Ollie Perez 3yrs/$36 million.

 

Because he was coming off two consecutive good years? He had a 3.56 and a 4.22 ERA in the two prior seasons in his age 25 and age 26 seasons. Hindsight is really 20/20 right

 

Perez is only 27, when it rains it pours with him but when he's on, he's a damn good pitcher

[a700hitter]

I don't believe the Sox need to add Beltre at this point. Put Youk at third and Kotchman at first. I think Kotchman will be outstanding with his defense and a suitable replacement for Lowell's bat' date=' and he's cheap. Thinking long term, the Sox will need to keep first base available in 2011 for Martinez if they plan on making a run at Mauer. Same thinking if they are serious about getting Gonzalez at the trade deadline this year, you have to put Youk at third now. Beltre is the odd man out in either of those situations, you wouldn't play him ahead of Youk at third.[/quote']A suitable replacement for Lowell's bat? He is a suitable replacement for Alex Gonzalez's bat. Forget about Mauer. If the Twins are stupid enough to let him get away, the Yankees will have an opening at catcher in 2011, and they will not let us get him. Put Mauer in the category of pipe dream.

[a700hitter]

Because he was coming off two consecutive good years? He had a 3.56 and a 4.22 ERA in the two prior seasons in his age 25 and age 26 seasons. Hindsight is really 20/20 right

 

Perez is only 27, when it rains it pours with him but when he's on, he's a damn good pitcher

I have many friends who are Mets fans. I go to a lot of their games. They were criticizing that deal before the team broke spring training last year. Perez is a well known head case. Met fans thought the deal was very stupid considering the pitchers who were available last off season.

[italstallianion]

If we can get Beltre for single digit AAV then I'm for it.

 

 

I believe this is in terms of run prevention/runs created.

 

Youkilis (3b) 8.6 runs + Kotchman (1b) 4.4 runs = 13 runs

Youkilis (1b) 6.5 runs + Beltre (3b) 13.9 runs = 20.4 runs

[a700hitter]

Because he was coming off two consecutive good years? He had a 3.56 and a 4.22 ERA in the two prior seasons in his age 25 and age 26 seasons. Hindsight is really 20/20 right

 

Perez is only 27, when it rains it pours with him but when he's on, he's a damn good pitcher

They also thought signing Luis Castillo for 4 years and big bucks was stupidity without the benefit of hindsight.

[BudLight]

A suitable replacement for Lowell's bat? He is a suitable replacement for Alex Gonzalez's bat. Forget about Mauer. If the Twins are stupid enough to let him get away' date=' the Yankees will have an opening at catcher in 2011, and they will not let us get him. Put Mauer in the category of pipe dream.[/quote']

 

 

If you look at their 162 game averages, the numbers are not that far off. Kotchman has never had the opportunity to play over 150 games in a season. Compared to Beltre at $11M more per year, I do think Kotchman is a suitable replacement for Lowell with Youk at third.

[a700hitter]

If you look at their 162 game averages' date=' the numbers are not that far off. Kotchman has never had the opportunity to play over 150 games in a season. Compared to Beltre at $11M more per year, I do think Kotchman is a suitable replacement for Lowell with Youk at third.[/quote']I don't know what stats you are looking at, but the ones that I am seeing are not comparable with Lowell's production. Other than OBP, he doesn't come close to Lowell in any category. He's a really slow footed singles hitter. There's a reason why he hasn't played 150 games in a season and why two organizations that like young cheap talent gave up on him by age 26. He just not an acceptable major league starting first baseman.

[Keeper]

Perez is only 27' date=' when it rains it pours with him but when he's on, he's a damn good pitcher[/quote']

 

Terrible command, gives up the gopher ball, doesn't pitch deep into games, high K/9. He is not a good pitcher. He racks up the strikeouts. That's about it.

 

Ugh, I can't believe some people are warming to the possibility of Kotchman starting at 1st.

[a700hitter]

Ugh' date=' I can't believe some people are warming to the possibility of Kotchman starting at 1st.[/quote']

The planted Herald article is beginning to have its desired effect.

[Keeper]

The planted Herald article is beginning to have its desired effect.

 

Propaganda at its finest.

[BudLight]

Terrible command, gives up the gopher ball, doesn't pitch deep into games, high K/9. He is not a good pitcher. He racks up the strikeouts. That's about it.

 

Ugh, I can't believe some people are warming to the possibility of Kotchman starting at 1st.

 

 

I'm not around here much anymore, but my affiliation would explain why I wouldn't mind seeing Kotchman as the everyday first baseman. Seriously - Beltre wants way to much money for what he brings to the table. Putting Youk at third and Kotchman at first provides the best possible corner infield defense. With the improved rotation and defense you shouldn't need a lot of pop from Kotchman on offense.

[italstallianion]

If money wasn't an issue, I'm sure that most people would prefer Beltre at third over Kotchman at first. However, money is obviously an issue, so it seems that given what Beltre wants, most people here believe that Kotchman is a better value for the money, and I agree. But in a vacuum I'd rather have Beltre, and I also think he and Boras will be severely dissappointed come payday.

[neilpatrickharris]

Propaganda at its finest.

 

Please don't tell me you buy into that theory

[a700hitter]

Please don't tell me you buy into that theory

Those who believe the propaganda never realize it was propaganda. Major league teams use the press all the time as a PR tool. Last year, the despicable Met FO was floating stories in the press at Thanksgiving that all but one of the luxury boxes were sold. The message was that tickets were going like hot cakes. Don't miss out. Well, that was total bull s***. They had several luxury boxes that went unsold throughout the season, and i know that for a fact. Of course the Red Sox FO is too principled to ever use the press to help their business.

[Keeper]

If money wasn't an issue' date=' I'm sure that most people would prefer Beltre at third over Kotchman at first. However, money is obviously an issue, so it seems that given what Beltre wants, most people here believe that Kotchman is a better value for the money, and I agree. But in a vacuum I'd rather have Beltre, and I also think he and Boras will be severely dissappointed come payday.[/quote']

 

I seriously doubt most people here believe that Kotchman is better value for the money than Beltre.

[Dojji]

I wanted them to nontender Kotchman. He's a dangerous guy to have on a roster because he's a tweener. He's not good enough, but he's good enough that someone could get snookered into thinking he could be good enough, if that makes sense. And having him on the roster makes better, less tweenerish options less attractive than they probably should be.

[italstallianion]

I seriously doubt most people here believe that Kotchman is better value for the money than Beltre.

 

 

 

I'm talking about who's more valuable for the money we are paying them. Kotchman is still in arbitration whereas Beltre is seeking upwards of 12-13 million AAV. I am confident that the majority see Kotchman as more valuable at roughly 3-4 million than Beltre at 12-13 million.

 

I'm not sure what part of my point you misunderstood, but that's all I was trying to say. I am not saying that Kotchman would be more valuable for THE SAME MONEY, as Beltre, but for the money they are/expecting to receive.

[Keeper]

I understood your point. What I'm saying is Kotchman has no value. He can catch the ball at first base. Other than that...

 

If you need a late inning defensive replacement at first base, he's your guy. That goes beyond a specialized player. That makes him almost completely worthless in my estimation.

[Dipre]

I don't know about anyone else, but i will not be happy is Kotchman is manning first come Opening Day, propaganda or no propaganda.

[a700hitter]

I don't know about anyone else' date=' but i will not be happy is Kotchman is manning first come Opening Day, propaganda or no propaganda.[/quote']There isn't one aspect of Kotchman's game that is as good as Doug Mientkievicz's game-- not one. Why would anyone be happy about him starting at first base?

[jacksonianmarch]

That's not how the luxury tax works Jackson. The Red Sox would be paying 17.5% of the amount of money that they go over the luxury tax, because they haven't gone over the luxury tax in a while. The Yankees only pay 40% on the amount of money that they go over the luxury tax because they've been over the luxury tax every single year, and if you're over the luxury tax threshold 3 years in a row, you pay the maximum 40% penalty.

 

So if the Sox are over the luxury tax by 5 million in 2010, they'd pay an adittional $875,000, not the $5 million figure you just made up. Not nearly as big a deal as you're making it out to be. And they're shedding over $50 million in salary after this year, so they could easily go back under the luxury tax threshold.

 

http://www.overthemonster.com/2009/12/22/1212797/lets-talk-about-luxury-tax

 

We're both wrong. If the sox break the lux tax in 2010, then they will be hit with a 30% tax. They exceeded in 2007 and were hit with a 40% tax. They were under the tax in 2008, so they dropped brackets to 30%. They would need to be under the lux tax for 2 yrs after that to drop down another bracket. So, if the sox stayed under the limit this yr, they would be at 22.5% next season. If they break this yr, they are at 40% for 2011.

 

Also, the site below shows the sox current salary structure. Although this artice is actually wrong in how much the sox would need to pay based on the lux tax rules

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2009/12/15/breaking-bank-look-red-sox-payroll-2010

 

The sox are currently at $168 million with a lux tax for 2010 of $170 mil. If they can rekindle the deal for Lowell and save $3 million while taking on a $400K player in Ramirez, then they stay under the cap by $4.6 million. Lets just say for arguments sake that Beltre signs for $9 million AAV over 3 yrs. That means that the sox would exceed the lux tax by $4.4 million. That means that to sox would pay $1.3 million in lux tax. So, for 2010, Beltre will cost $10.3 million. Then, for 2011, the sox would be in the 40% tax bracket instead of the 22.5% tax bracket. And for 2012, they'd be in the 40% instead of the 30%. That means that Beltre not only is going to cost his contract plus lux tax, he will also cost 17.5% more for overall team lux tax in 2011 and 10% more in lux tax in 2012.

[Lester82]

The planted Herald article is beginning to have its desired effect.

 

Yeah, I'm sure the Herald is a great "propaganda" paper for the Sox. Read Michael Silverman's piece just before Christmas, he actually believes Javy Vazquez is as good as Lackey.

[jacksonianmarch]

He could be. But I would definitely say that the odds are on Lackey's side for this upcoming season.

[Dipre]

He could be. But I would definitely say that the odds are on Lackey's side for this upcoming season.

 

He is until Vasquez proves he can keep runs off the board consistently in the AL.

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly. We dont need him to be better than Lackey, though. We just need him to throw 200 innings and continue pitching above average. Anything more than that is gravy.