Jason Bay going to the Mets

[BSN07]

Just to put this out there, but fangraphs projects Bay to have a value of 13.8M next season. While they value Cameron at 15.7M. Also Cameron was more valuable in 2009, 19.4M-15.7M for Bay.

 

The Sox are losing a little bit of offensive, gaining a good amount of defense and saving like 45M in the process. There's the nuts and bolts of it.

[example1]

The overall impact of this off-season for Boston is difficult to assess. I think they get more consistent with Lackey taking the bump 30 times assuming he is healthy. But the offensive downgrade is important to keep in mind' date=' especially if Lowell is given away like he nearly was. That means that not only do you lose 36 homers and 119RBI, but you also lose a guy who hit around .300 with close to 20 homers. And both positions get replaced with worse players. The sox pen also takes a hit losing Wagner and Saito, since both put in well above replacement performance for the sox. So overall, they have the potential to be very good. And at the very worst, I think they are good enough for playoff contention. I think losing some of the guys they are in the process of losing, though, makes their potential high end performance lower than they were prior to this offseason. So overall, less potential upside, but more consistency and a higher potential downside.[/quote']

 

Many new draft picks, preserved longterm flexibility, playoff contention, the best rotation in baseball, improved defense without losing any obvious wins above replacement, a deep farm system.

 

To say that defense in LF doesn't matter for the Red Sox is just absurd. They really do play 81 games away from home and they've been terrible on the road lately.

 

This team is in good shape moving forward. Hell, if Jacksonian is saying they're a playoff caliber team then I think our work here is done. Their balls aren't bronzed in gold like A-Rod's are, but they are one of MLB's best teams nonetheless.

[Keeper]

Just to put this out there, but fangraphs projects Bay to have a value of 13.8M next season. While they value Cameron at 15.7M. Also Cameron was more valuable in 2009, 19.4M-15.7M for Bay.

 

The Sox are losing a little bit of offensive, gaining a good amount of defense and saving like 45M in the process. There's the nuts and bolts of it.

 

If you go by projections, the Sox are losing a lot of offense, according to Bill James.

 

Jason Bay's projections

 

Mike Cameron's projections

[Imperial59]

Just to put this out there, but fangraphs projects Bay to have a value of 13.8M next season. While they value Cameron at 15.7M. Also Cameron was more valuable in 2009, 19.4M-15.7M for Bay.

 

The Sox are losing a little bit of offensive, gaining a good amount of defense and saving like 45M in the process. There's the nuts and bolts of it.

 

If Cameron plays center, he's certainly move valuable than Bay is overall. But we're still seeing an offensive downgrade in left going from Bay to Ellsbury. Granted we're gaining plenty of offense and defense in center.

 

It's hard to say what kind of value Ellsbury will have in left field. He was 11.8 runs above average offensively last year, but we don't really have a reliable sample size of how he'd do defensively in left field.

[Imperial59]

If you go by projections, the Sox are losing a lot of offense, according to Bill James.

 

Jason Bay's projections

 

Mike Cameron's projections

 

Right, but we're talking the total impact of the players which includes defense.

[Imperial59]

The overall impact of this off-season for Boston is difficult to assess. I think they get more consistent with Lackey taking the bump 30 times assuming he is healthy. But the offensive downgrade is important to keep in mind' date=' especially if Lowell is given away like he nearly was. That means that not only do you lose 36 homers and 119RBI, but you also lose a guy who hit around .300 with close to 20 homers. And both positions get replaced with worse players. The sox pen also takes a hit losing Wagner and Saito, since both put in well above replacement performance for the sox. So overall, they have the potential to be very good. And at the very worst, I think they are good enough for playoff contention. I think losing some of the guys they are in the process of losing, though, makes their potential high end performance lower than they were prior to this offseason. So overall, less potential upside, but more consistency and a higher potential downside.[/quote']

 

It's really not that hard to determine.

 

They're going from Brad Penny (24 starts, 3rd most on the team last year) to John Lackey. That's a HUGE plus.

 

They're going from mostly Nick Green (0.4 WAR last year) to Marco Scutaro who's probably good for a WAR around 3 (that's about what he did in 2008). Also a huge plus.

 

And if you factor in offense AND defense, going from Bay to Cameron isn't a huge downgrade.

[BSN07]

Right' date=' but we're talking the total impact of the players which includes defense.[/quote']

 

Thank you

[Keeper]

BSN07 said they're losing a little bit of offense. That couldn't be further from the truth. I'm still not sold that a 37-year old player will have the impact you seem to think he will have.

[Imperial59]

BSN07 said they're losing a little bit of offense. That couldn't be further from the truth. I'm still not sold that a 37-year old player will have the impact you seem to think he will have.

 

We're losing a pretty big chunk of offense, but we're also gaining a pretty big chunk of run prevention due to defense. Overall, I don't think it's gonna kill us to make a moderate downgrade in left considering the huge upgrades we made in the rotation and at shortstop. We did win 95 games last year, it's not like we needed to improve much to be a 100 win caliber team.

[example1]

BSN07 said they're losing a little bit of offense. That couldn't be further from the truth. I'm still not sold that a 37-year old player will have the impact you seem to think he will have.

 

Are the merits of this deal based on who the replacement is, or whether Bay is actually a viable option by the end of the contract? If Bay were willing to sign a 3-4 year deal he'd be a Red Sox. As we've seen in the past, the Sox tend to make these types of decisions pretty well.

 

If he is injured or can't play the OF in two years, the fact that they have Cameron instead of Bay will be a huge victory. If Cameron gets injured/sucks he can be replaced. If Bay did that he will not be easily replaced.

 

This isn't the same as saying that Cameron is better than Bay, but his contract and abilities may be better for this team over the same timeframe.

[Dipre]

Dipre' date=' you can't honestly believe the lineup won't suffer with Mike Cameron in place of Jason Bay. The defense is better, the pitching is better, the lineup is not better. Until the Sox get Holliday or Gonzalez, there is no other way to look at it.[/quote']

 

Don't put words in my mouth.

 

I specifically mentioned the loss in offensive production. But i said the run-prevention upgrade far outweighs such loss.

[Dipre]

BSN07 said they're losing a little bit of offense. That couldn't be further from the truth. I'm still not sold that a 37-year old player will have the impact you seem to think he will have.

 

You're looking at it from a "Bay vs Cameron" perspective.

 

Everyone else (except Jacko) looks at it from a "Bay Vs Cameron/Lackey" perspective.

 

Therein lies the problem.

[Dipre]

it is not debateable that the sox offense is worse' date=' especially with Cameron and Kotchmann starting while Lowell and Bay are gone[/quote']

 

Kotchman starting is pure assumption.

[Cocos Disciples]

I'm glad the Sox didn't match that offer. That's too much. He'll be a very good player for the first two, maybe three years, but the Mets will regret it in the latter years when he's still playing the field.

[Dipre]

I'm glad the Sox didn't match that offer. That's too much. He'll be a very good player for the first two' date=' maybe three years, but the Mets will regret it in the latter years when he's still playing the field.[/quote']

 

The vesting option would raise the total value to 80 million dollars. That's plain ridiculous.

 

Jason Bay's vesting option could bring the overall value of his deal to slightly more than $80 million over five years.

 

Jerry Crasnick.

[Imperial59]

You're looking at it from a "Bay vs Cameron" perspective.

 

Everyone else (except Jacko) looks at it from a "Bay Vs Cameron/Lackey" perspective.

 

Therein lies the problem.

 

I don't think many other people were looking at it from a Bay vs. Cameron/Lackey perspective, but you do have a point in that we signed Cameron AND Lackey with the money we offered Bay and he rejected.

 

I think a fairly decent case could be made that the difference in offense between the two could be offset by having Victor Martinez with us for a full season, instead of 4 months of Varitek offensively. Not to mention having Scutaro play short instead of Nick Green and his disgusting .236/.303/.366 line.

 

And for the Yankees a case could probably be made that he dropoffs they'll be seeing in offense in left and at the DH spot could be offset by having A-Rod healthy the first month of the season.

[26 to 6]

I will ask you a question back.

 

Are the Sox better with Mike Cameron in LF and John Lackey as the 3rd starter or are they better with Jason Bay in left and Brad Penny/Dice-K/Bucholz as the 3rd starter?

Or would they be better with Bay in left, Cam in center, Ellsbury in San Diego, and Lackey as their #3?

 

Good signing by Omar, the Mets desperately needed this. They need pitching even more desperately though. I wonder how big the dropoff in Bay's numbers will be going from Fenway to Citi. Probably something to keep an eye on. Either way it's still a huge addition.

[Dipre]

Or would they be better with Bay in left' date=' Cam in center, Ellsbury in San Diego, and Lackey as their #3?[/i']

 

Good signing by Omar, the Mets desperately needed this. They need pitching even more desperately though. I wonder how big the dropoff in Bay's numbers will be going from Fenway to Citi. Probably something to keep an eye on. Either way it's still a huge addition.

 

Yes, because we decide whether or not SD trades Ad-Gon.

[CoachC.]

Bay's daughters reaction to him signing with the Mets

 

http://web11.twitpic.com/img/53379158-7bf7fe76acbf1ce848db43841a40e0a8.4b3a8395-scaled.jpg

[26 to 6]

Yes' date=' because we decide whether or not SD trades Ad-Gon.[/quote']

The way you guys were talking about it for a few weeks there it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion

[Tyler Durden]

Sox are going to miss Bay, and Bay is going to miss the Sox.

[Dipre]

The way you guys were talking about it for a few weeks there it seemed like it was a forgone conclusion

 

Is this another one of your "opinions", because as usual, it lacks a logical foundation.

 

There was speculation, and Hoyer made his desires known, but the Sox have their limit, and a deal didn't get done. They can't force the Padres to trade him now if they can wait and force the Sox' hand (or any other team) for a better package. He will be traded, it simply remains to be seen whether if now or later.

 

I urge you to make actual contributions instead of flawed "opinions" and blatant trolling.

[26 to 6]

 

I realize all of this, and I'm glad you do now too. The point I was making is that at the time PEOPLE, particularly RED SOX FANS talked about the possibility of a deal as if it were definitely going to go through. Some Sox fans considered him a part of the team at one point. So I don't know what you're talking about. Way to go trying to stir up an argument from nothing, based solely on your retardation. Nothing I shared was an opinion, I was pointing out the opinions YOU GUYS were sharing.

 

Time to go destress now, you get me so angry sometimes.

[Red Foreman]

With "run prevention" the new off season mantra' date=' I wonder if Theo knows it's not about preventing [b']our [/b]team from scoring...

 

 

[Imperial59]

Kotchman starting is pure assumption.

 

Just like the rest of Jackson's arguments (ex. Kotchman is starting at first, Cameron is starting in left, 4 of the Yankees starters are a "sure thing" to make 30+ starts and 200 innings, etc.)

 

When you can't win an argument with logic, just speculate!

[Red Foreman]

Cameron will likely play center unless Ellsbury improves.

 

You can't honestly think the Yankees offense is improving overall going from Damon, Matsui and Melky (all putting up career type numbers) to Granderson, Johnson and Brett Gardner

 

 

Is that sarcasm? It looks like a leateral move at worst to me.

[Spudboy]

I'm glad the Sox didn't match that offer. That's too much. He'll be a very good player for the first two' date=' maybe three years, but the Mets will regret it in the latter years when he's still playing the field.[/quote']

 

Yup.

 

I still don't understand why an NL team has paid so much for a guy that should be a DH in 2-3 years.

 

I'll miss Bay's production at the plate. But I'm glad the Sox did not over-pay for a middling talent here.

[Red Foreman]

We're losing a pretty big chunk of offense' date=' but we're also gaining a pretty big chunk of run prevention due to defense. Overall, I don't think it's gonna kill us to make a moderate downgrade in left considering the huge upgrades we made in the rotation and at shortstop. We did win 95 games last year, it's not like we needed to improve much to be a 100 win caliber team.[/quote']

 

 

When did they make a huge upgrade at SS?

[italstallianion]

Countdown until Bay wants to be traded?

 

I bet we could trade for Bay back for a few Dominican guys in rookie ball. Gotta love Omar Minaya.

[jacksonianmarch]

When did they make a huge upgrade at SS?

 

exactly