Jason Bay going to the Mets

[Tyler Durden]

First reported on WFAN by Mike Francesa

 

Since confirmed by Jon Heyman.

 

 

 

I can confirm, Bay and Mets do have agreement. Good job by Mike.

[jacksonianmarch]

4 yrs 66 mil with an easy vesting 5th yr option. Sounds like a good deal for Bay. And, the sox get a second rounder for their troubles plus a supplemental pick.

 

So, the sox lost their #1 and #2 picks for Lackey and Scutaro. They gained Atlanta's #1 pick for Wagner, the Mets #2 pick for Bay and 2 supplemental picks.

[Imperial59]

Bay will certainly help their offense. I liked him in Boston but his approach at the plate which culminated in so many strikeouts and his poor defense were starting to bother me.

 

You'd think a .900+ OPS would have helped carry the offense, but in my opinion he was a large reason why the Sox offense was so up and down last year. He'd hit .324/.490/.634 one month and then .192/.394/.295 another month. And it didn't help that his best month was April and it was all downhill from there.

 

It was pretty telling when the Sox moved him out of the heart of the order even though he had the second best OPS on the team.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bay brought the thunder to the sox lineup. Especially when they brought in Martinez, who is more of a gap hitter with power who was more built for the #3 spot in the lineup. And Youkilis was a much better hitter so moving him out of the 4 hole didnt make sense. Then the matchups dictated his move to #6 so that Ortiz and Drew werent hitting back to back. He made the sox a lot more dangerous, IMO.

[Dipre]

Bay brought the thunder to the sox lineup. Especially when they brought in Martinez' date=' who is more of a gap hitter with power who was more built for the #3 spot in the lineup. And Youkilis was a much better hitter so moving him out of the 4 hole didnt make sense. Then the matchups dictated his move to #6 so that Ortiz and Drew werent hitting back to back. He made the sox a lot more dangerous, IMO.[/quote']

 

The 2009 Boston Red Sox hit 212 Home Runs and 335 doubles. Jason Bay contributed 36 and 29 of those, respectively. So it seems there was a lot of "thunder" in the lineup, but not enough game-to-game consistency.

 

You make it seem like losing Bay is the end of the world for the Red Sox. It's not.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre. I will ask you this question as basic as I can make it.

 

Are the sox better with Mike Cameron in LF or with Jason Bay in LF?

[rhet]

Bay was a very good player for the Sox. They are going to miss him.

[Dipre]

Dipre. I will ask you this question as basic as I can make it.

 

Are the sox better with Mike Cameron in LF or with Jason Bay in LF?

 

I will ask you a question back.

 

Are the Sox better with Mike Cameron in LF and John Lackey as the 3rd starter or are they better with Jason Bay in left and Brad Penny/Dice-K/Bucholz as the 3rd starter?

[Dipre]

Bay was a very good player for the Sox. They are going to miss him.

 

This is not in question.

 

He was very productive, but the improvement in pitching and defense has a much bigger impact than the loss on offense.

[rhet]

This is not in question.

 

He was very productive, but the improvement in pitching and defense has a much bigger impact than the loss on offense.

 

I don't agree with that.

[Dipre]

I don't agree with that.

 

You might not.

 

But it's the truth.

 

The back end of the rotation was the downfall for the 2009 Boston Red Sox. And besides, all of this discussion will be moot until rosters are finished. We still don't know if there's another deal in the works.

[Imperial59]

Dipre. I will ask you this question as basic as I can make it.

 

Are the sox better with Mike Cameron in LF or with Jason Bay in LF?

 

No, but the difference isn't as much as you're probably assuming. Cameron has significantly outperformed Bay in WAR over the last two years. If you take into account that he's getting a bonus from his position, and subtract that bonus (plus take into account Bay's positional adjustment), Cameron is only a few runs worse overall. The difference in their defensive abilities is quite large.

 

It's not nearly the dropoff the Yankees are seeing in left field going from Damon to Gardner/Nady/etc.

[BSN07]

I don't agree with that.

 

Of course you wouldn't Pretty sure a700 agree with you though

[jacksonianmarch]

I will ask you a question back.

 

Are the Sox better with Mike Cameron in LF and John Lackey as the 3rd starter or are they better with Jason Bay in left and Brad Penny/Dice-K/Bucholz as the 3rd starter?

 

An answer would be nice

[BSN07]

Good riddance BTW. I was never a big fan.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, but the difference isn't as much as you're probably assuming. Cameron has significantly outperformed Bay in WAR over the last two years. If you take into account that he's getting a bonus from his position, and subtract that bonus (plus take into account Bay's positional adjustment), Cameron is only a few runs worse overall. The difference in their defensive abilities is quite large.

 

It's not nearly the dropoff the Yankees are seeing in left field going from Damon to Gardner/Nady/etc.

 

Cameron's defensive prowess will be blunted in LF. That's the issue. The Red Sox LFer does not need to have a lot of range. The Red Sox LFer doesnt even need a strong arm. All he needs to do is be able to read the ball off the wall and make an accurate throw. That's it.

 

I didnt ask about the Yankees. But they have an improvement in CF, a dropoff in LF for now, and a likely wash at the DH position. So their offense stands to be similar.

[Dipre]

An answer would be nice

 

Same here.

 

Because obviously, the question i asked you is better suited for the discussion at hand. It's obvious Jason Bay is better, but when you look at the bigger picture, the improvement in run prevention outweighs from both players outweighs offensive production.

 

Whine all you want with your doomsday device. Even though they lost Bay, the Sox got better.

[Dipre]

Cameron's defensive prowess will be blunted in LF. That's the issue. The Red Sox LFer does not need to have a lot of range. The Red Sox LFer doesnt even need a strong arm. All he needs to do is be able to read the ball off the wall and make an accurate throw. That's it.

 

I didnt ask about the Yankees. But they have an improvement in CF, a dropoff in LF for now, and a likely wash at the DH position. So their offense stands to be similar.

 

A) We still don't know if Cameron's playing LF or CF.

 

B ) While this is true for Fenway, what about the season's other 81 games?

[jacksonianmarch]

Unquestionably, there is an improvement for the other 81 games. But when defense is the only improvement and the point is moot for half the games, the point rings a bit hollow.

[Tyler Durden]

This is not in question.

 

He was very productive, but the improvement in pitching and defense has a much bigger impact than the loss on offense.

 

Defense is VERY OVERRATED for a LFer in Fenway Park.

[Dipre]

Unquestionably' date=' there is an improvement for the other 81 games. But when defense is the only improvement and the point is moot for half the games, the point rings a bit hollow.[/quote']

 

It depends. If Cameron plays CF and Ellsbury plays LF, the defensive improvement is enormous all around.

 

Also, quite simply, the improvement from whatever the Sox had as a #3 to Lackey is also enormous. This needs to be taken into account when evaluating next year's team objectively.

[CoachC.]

#redsox found some "physical issues'' with #bay. #mets are believed to be aware of this. med. exam could be a marathon

 

Heyman

[rhet]

the improvement in run prevention outweighs from both players outweighs offensive production.

 

 

 

With "run prevention" the new off season mantra, I wonder if Theo knows it's not about preventing our team from scoring...

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Same here.

 

Because obviously, the question i asked you is better suited for the discussion at hand. It's obvious Jason Bay is better, but when you look at the bigger picture, the improvement in run prevention outweighs from both players outweighs offensive production.

 

Whine all you want with your doomsday device. Even though they lost Bay, the Sox got better.

 

The overall impact of this off-season for Boston is difficult to assess. I think they get more consistent with Lackey taking the bump 30 times assuming he is healthy. But the offensive downgrade is important to keep in mind, especially if Lowell is given away like he nearly was. That means that not only do you lose 36 homers and 119RBI, but you also lose a guy who hit around .300 with close to 20 homers. And both positions get replaced with worse players. The sox pen also takes a hit losing Wagner and Saito, since both put in well above replacement performance for the sox. So overall, they have the potential to be very good. And at the very worst, I think they are good enough for playoff contention. I think losing some of the guys they are in the process of losing, though, makes their potential high end performance lower than they were prior to this offseason. So overall, less potential upside, but more consistency and a higher potential downside.

[Keeper]

Dipre, you can't honestly believe the lineup won't suffer with Mike Cameron in place of Jason Bay. The defense is better, the pitching is better, the lineup is not better. Until the Sox get Holliday or Gonzalez, there is no other way to look at it.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

With "run prevention" the new off season mantra' date=' I wonder if Theo knows it's not about preventing our team from scoring...[/quote']

 

Wow.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre' date=' you can't honestly believe the lineup won't suffer with Mike Cameron in place of Jason Bay. The defense is better, the pitching is better, the lineup is not better. Until the Sox get Holliday or Gonzalez, there is no other way to look at it.[/quote']

 

it is not debateable that the sox offense is worse, especially with Cameron and Kotchmann starting while Lowell and Bay are gone

[Imperial59]

Bay brought the thunder to the sox lineup. Especially when they brought in Martinez' date=' who is more of a gap hitter with power who was more built for the #3 spot in the lineup. And Youkilis was a much better hitter so moving him out of the 4 hole didnt make sense. Then the matchups dictated his move to #6 so that Ortiz and Drew werent hitting back to back. He made the sox a lot more dangerous, IMO.[/quote']

 

Bay had the flashier HR numbers, but he wasn't much more of a power threat than Drew (.522 SLG), Martinez (.480 SLG) or Lowell (.474 SLG). Somehow the Sox will survive lol

[Imperial59]

it is not debateable that the sox offense is worse' date=' especially with Cameron and Kotchmann starting while Lowell and Bay are gone[/quote']

 

Umm... Lowell's not gone and by all accounts he'll be ready in plenty of time for Spring Training. In fact, he should be fully recovered by mid-February even if he's on the slower spectrum of his recovery time table.

[Imperial59]

Cameron's defensive prowess will be blunted in LF. That's the issue. The Red Sox LFer does not need to have a lot of range. The Red Sox LFer doesnt even need a strong arm. All he needs to do is be able to read the ball off the wall and make an accurate throw. That's it.

 

I didnt ask about the Yankees. But they have an improvement in CF, a dropoff in LF for now, and a likely wash at the DH position. So their offense stands to be similar.

 

Cameron will likely play center unless Ellsbury improves.

 

You can't honestly think the Yankees offense is improving overall going from Damon, Matsui and Melky (all putting up career type numbers) to Granderson, Johnson and Brett Gardner