Unofficial Adrian Gonzalez thread.

[Dipre]

Not really. Some of them are going to be Fenway doubles too. And the height of the wall may take a couple away as well.

 

With that chart you're looking at possibly an extra 8 to 14 HRs depending on the Monster.

[Plumpamania]

Dipre is my hero!

[Emmz]

I think we can all agree on this: Adrian Gonzales' production would go up at Fenway Park from Petco Park, and fairly significantly as well.

[Imperial59]

If the sox put THAT lineup out there while waiting until midseason for a trade' date=' they will be so far behind in the division that any deal they make won't help them in the AL East.[/quote']

 

I don't know if you actually meant that Jackson or if you were just taking a shot at the Sox, but the Yankees were 8 games better than the Red Sox last year, which breaks down to only 4-5 games to overcome after the All-Star break. And that's assuming the Sox didn't get any better so far this offseason.

 

Lowell's 1.2 WAR isn't very hard to replace (Kotchman was only 0.4 points off last year in a down year). And even though the Sox are losing offense with Bay leaving, they're also improving their defense quite a bit overall*. And you'd have to be crazy to think they aren't a better overall team having replaced Brad Penny as the guy who made the third most starts on the team last year with John Lackey next year and Nick Green who started the vast majority of games at SS last year with Marco Scutaro.

 

*Replaced Ellsbury (-18.6 UZR/150) with Cameron (career 5.7 UZR/150)

*Replaced Bay (-14.4 UZR/150) with Ellsbury (21.8 career UZR/150 in limited playing time)

*Replaced Lowell (-13.3 UZR/150) with Youkilis (career 8.6 UZR/150)

 

Those are some HUGE upgrades at multiple positions. Also, Lugo had the 4th worst UZR on the team (not UZR/150) even though he only played in 30 odd games. Yes, he was THAT bad.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I don't know if you actually meant that Jackson or if you were just taking a shot at the Sox, but the Yankees were 8 games better than the Red Sox last year, which breaks down to only 4-5 games to overcome after the All-Star break. And that's assuming the Sox didn't get any better so far this offseason.

 

Lowell's 1.2 WAR isn't very hard to replace (Kotchman was only 0.4 points off last year in a down year). And even though the Sox are losing offense with Bay leaving, they're also improving their defense quite a bit overall*. And you'd have to be crazy to think they aren't a better overall team having replaced Brad Penny as the guy who made the third most starts on the team last year with John Lackey next year and Nick Green who started the vast majority of games at SS last year with Marco Scutaro.

 

*Replaced Ellsbury (-18.6 UZR/150) with Cameron (career 5.7 UZR/150)

*Replaced Bay (-14.4 UZR/150) with Ellsbury (21.8 career UZR/150 in limited playing time)

*Replaced Lowell (-13.3 UZR/150) with Youkilis (career 8.6 UZR/150)

 

Those are some HUGE upgrades at multiple positions. Also, Lugo had the 4th worst UZR on the team (not UZR/150) even though he only played in 30 odd games. Yes, he was THAT bad.

 

Someone tried to make this argument on SOSH and it just doesn't hold all that well. That defensive alignment shows a +80 point swing or roughly 8 additional wins which is in no way shape or form realistic. Particularly Ellsbury who has a +40 point swing just by switching to LF. Those LF metrics were accumulated during a time when Ellsbury was supposedly a +16.5 CF also.

 

Is the defense improved? Sure, by how much? It's hard to tell because UZR has a lot of flaws and at the same time the offensive hit from going from Bay to Cameron is pretty large.

[CoachC.]

Boston won't be only team on Gonzalez. Baltimore made a pretty good run at him at the winter meetings, I'm told

 

[Dojji]

Wow, that might push even the Orioles over .500

[Gom]

Olney makes a good point. Ellsbury isn't much of an option for SD, since he is a year away from free agency and he is a Boras client.

[Dojji]

I'd be very happy not to trade them Ellsbury.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Olney makes a good point. Ellsbury isn't much of an option for SD' date=' since he is a year away from free agency and he is a Boras client.[/quote']

 

He has got three years including '10.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't know if you actually meant that Jackson or if you were just taking a shot at the Sox, but the Yankees were 8 games better than the Red Sox last year, which breaks down to only 4-5 games to overcome after the All-Star break. And that's assuming the Sox didn't get any better so far this offseason.

 

Lowell's 1.2 WAR isn't very hard to replace (Kotchman was only 0.4 points off last year in a down year). And even though the Sox are losing offense with Bay leaving, they're also improving their defense quite a bit overall*. And you'd have to be crazy to think they aren't a better overall team having replaced Brad Penny as the guy who made the third most starts on the team last year with John Lackey next year and Nick Green who started the vast majority of games at SS last year with Marco Scutaro.

 

*Replaced Ellsbury (-18.6 UZR/150) with Cameron (career 5.7 UZR/150)

*Replaced Bay (-14.4 UZR/150) with Ellsbury (21.8 career UZR/150 in limited playing time)

*Replaced Lowell (-13.3 UZR/150) with Youkilis (career 8.6 UZR/150)

 

Those are some HUGE upgrades at multiple positions. Also, Lugo had the 4th worst UZR on the team (not UZR/150) even though he only played in 30 odd games. Yes, he was THAT bad.

 

The 8 games doesnt take into account that it was as high as 10 games in September and we hadnt put a full effort out there since the beginning of September. Plus, the Sox had a 5 game lead on the yankees prior to them getting all their pieces back. The difference after Posada and ARod came back from injury is more in the 15 game range. Now, I expect the sox to regain some of that with Matsuzaka being healthy in 2010. But, when it comes to Buchholz, take a look at this....

 

Buchholz 16GS 7-4 92IP 91H 43ER 36BB 68K

Wakefield 21GS 11-5 129.2IP 137H 66ER 50BB 72K

 

That really comes out to about 3-4 starts over a full rotation slot for the season. And since Wake is getting pushed out of the rotation for Buchholz, you can make this comp. Their composite numbers shake out to...

 

37GS 18-9 221.2IP 228H 109ER 86BB 140K. Anyone think Buchholz slotting in full time into that slot in the rotation is going to replicate these numbers? I dont think even the biggest Buch supporter expects him to reach 200IP and win 18 games in 2010. The biggest difference for the sox will be replacing Penny, Smoltz, and other BS in the 5 hole with Lackey. That's the difference maker.

 

Onto the offense. Defensive drop from AGon to Scutaro, but offensive improvement. Defensive improvement but offensive drop from going with Lowell/Youk at the corners to Youk/Kotch at the corners. Massive offensive drop in LF, but significant defensive improvement going from Bay to Cameron, although LF in Fenway doesnt need to be a defensive position. Overall, your offense suffers here. Losing Lowell, Bay, and Gonzalez for Scutaro, Cameron and Kotchmann is a massive, massive dropoff. I dont see how you think you gain games with the latter three.

[Cocos Disciples]

Olney makes a good point. Ellsbury isn't much of an option for SD' date=' since he is a year away from free agency and he is a Boras client.[/quote']

 

He has got three years including '10.

 

Actually I think it's more. Cot's indicated he's a FA after 2013.

[TedWilliams101]

The 8 games doesnt take into account that it was as high as 10 games in September and we hadnt put a full effort out there since the beginning of September. Plus, the Sox had a 5 game lead on the yankees prior to them getting all their pieces back. The difference after Posada and ARod came back from injury is more in the 15 game range. Now, I expect the sox to regain some of that with Matsuzaka being healthy in 2010. But, when it comes to Buchholz, take a look at this....

 

Buchholz 16GS 7-4 92IP 91H 43ER 36BB 68K

Wakefield 21GS 11-5 129.2IP 137H 66ER 50BB 72K

 

That really comes out to about 3-4 starts over a full rotation slot for the season. And since Wake is getting pushed out of the rotation for Buchholz, you can make this comp. Their composite numbers shake out to...

 

37GS 18-9 221.2IP 228H 109ER 86BB 140K. Anyone think Buchholz slotting in full time into that slot in the rotation is going to replicate these numbers? I dont think even the biggest Buch supporter expects him to reach 200IP and win 18 games in 2010. The biggest difference for the sox will be replacing Penny, Smoltz, and other BS in the 5 hole with Lackey. That's the difference maker.

 

Onto the offense. Defensive drop from AGon to Scutaro, but offensive improvement. Defensive improvement but offensive drop from going with Lowell/Youk at the corners to Youk/Kotch at the corners. Massive offensive drop in LF, but significant defensive improvement going from Bay to Cameron, although LF in Fenway doesnt need to be a defensive position. Overall, your offense suffers here. Losing Lowell, Bay, and Gonzalez for Scutaro, Cameron and Kotchmann is a massive, massive dropoff. I dont see how you think you gain games with the latter three.

 

I don't think this team can be standing pat right now. They NEED to do something at 1st/3rd. Kotchman shouldn't be a starting 1B in this league (and please don't think of Vmart at 1st and Tek behind the plate... oh god).

[flinch]

Joey Votto would be my next target. I like Miggy put Gonzo seems untouchable.

[SoxSport]

That Fenway overlay looks off. Fenway is 380 to straight away RF' date=' and goes out to 383 at the corner of the bullpen in RCF. The 378 at Petco should be just about even with the Fenway overlay.[/quote']

 

RF is a standoff. It's 380 to the Red Sox BP in right-center.

 

The big difference is LF. He would hit .350 in Fenway.

[Palodios]

"Unfortunately for the rest of the league, when asked if Votto could be included in a trade this offseason, Reds GM Walt Jocketty replied “Oh God, no!”

"

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/vottos-value/

 

So it basically presents the same problem as AGon. The sox would have to overpay.

[bsox0407]

RF is a standoff. It's 380 to the Red Sox BP in right-center.

 

The big difference is LF. He would hit .350 in Fenway.

 

What about the ocean breeze in San Diego?

 

Isn't Petco close to the Bay.

[BSN07]

What about the ocean breeze in San Diego?

 

Isn't Petco close to the Bay.

 

Let's try not to reach too far mate

[bsox0407]

Let's try not to reach too far mate

 

I thought that it was really close to the ocean and the breeze is coming off the ocean and it hurting the balls travel.

[Dojji]

What about the ocean breeze in San Diego?

 

Isn't Petco close to the Bay.

 

San Diego isn't within 600 miles of the Bay.

[bsox0407]

San Diego isn't within 600 miles of the Bay.

 

I meant ocean.

[Spudboy]

San Diego isn't within 600 miles of the Bay.

 

wut:blink:

[jacksonianmarch]

RF is a standoff. It's 380 to the Red Sox BP in right-center.

 

The big difference is LF. He would hit .350 in Fenway.

 

 

His highest BA in a season was .304 in 2006. He just came off a career yr where he hit .277. You really think he's gonna gain 73 points based on park factor in 81 of his 162 games? That seems illogical

[TedWilliams101]

His highest BA in a season was .304 in 2006. He just came off a career yr where he hit .277. You really think he's gonna gain 73 points based on park factor in 81 of his 162 games? That seems illogical

 

His career BA away is .300. This season his away BA was .306. The guy is just 27 and has improved just about every facet of his game each season.

 

Do you really find it hard to believe that a career .300 hitter away from Petco, who is still blossoming into one of the most feared hitters in the league, can hit close to .350 playing 1/2 his games at friendly Fenway? Just the switch alone should make him a .300-.320 hitter, if he continues to improve and really adapts well to Fenway, there is no reason to believe he can't approach .350. Now, obviously we don't EXPECT him to hit .350, but I think its very well possible.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes, I find it very hard to believe. Actually, incredibly hard to believe

[Dipre]

Yes' date=' I find it very hard to believe. Actually, incredibly hard to believe[/quote']

 

Unless he were to go to the Yankees.

[jacksonianmarch]

AdGon is not gonna hit .350. He's never shown that capability.

[Dipre]

AdGon is not gonna hit .350. He's never shown that capability.

 

I don't believe he will. In all seriousness, i believe OP meant .350 at Fenway, which is much more feasible, but still unlikely. Over a full season, i highly, highly doubt it.

[SoxSport]

 

Isn't Petco close to the Bay.

 

another Freudian slip

[SoxSport]

AdGon is not gonna hit .350. He's never shown that capability.

 

at Fenway