Official 2009-2010 Hot Stove season thread

[Lester82]

OMG -- Gom

 

Comparing any package that starts w/ Clay Buchholz to a Ian Kennedy/Melky Cabrera duo.

 

JUST. WOW.

 

W O W

[Dipre]

Well if shock value is what he was going for, he certainly managed it.

[Spudboy]

The deal for Halladay obviously has to be contingent on an extension being signed' date=' but I really have mixed feelings about giving up both Buchholz and Kelly for a 32 year old pitcher, even if it is Halladay.[/quote']

 

That's how I feel too.

[Gom]

Someone should look up the first 190.2 innings of Chris Carpenter' date=' Curt Schilling and [b']Roy Halladay[/b] ,then get back to us.

 

He matches up better than Carpenter, who did nothing until he went to the NL.

 

Roy Halladay..not even close. 2.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 6.32 K/9, 2.71 K/BB.

 

Schilling...about the same, I'd say. However, they are drastically different pitchers.

 

I just don't see it. Really.

 

How much would you laugh at a Yankee fan if he came on here and said "I wouldn't trade Hughes or Joba straight up for Halladay".

 

So...convince me. Show me why Buchholz is such an extreme talent.

 

Don't bother Dipre. Seriously. I'm looking for people who not only understand baseball, as well as people who will quote stats that are real.

 

Seriously...convince me.

[Spudboy]

Lol.

[Gom]

OMG -- Gom

 

Comparing any package that starts w/ Clay Buchholz to a Ian Kennedy/Melky Cabrera duo.

 

JUST. WOW.

 

W O W

 

Yes, it was for shock value. This is the kind of garbage on Yankee forums I would see all day. It's getting that way now here. Halladay is a SEASON changer. Not just a game changer. I heard on the radio after the trade deadline that the only thing that worried the Yankee players was Halladay going to Boston.

 

It doesn't really matter who the Yankees give up. A rotation of CC, Halladay, AJ and Pettite? Forget it. Book the parade now.

 

Halladay, Beckett, Lester? Party at Fenuiel Hall in October[did I spell that right?]

 

Halladay makes either team the prohibitive favorite to win it all. It will take more than one prospect who PROJECTS to be good...but hasn't been anything but mediocre so far. Put Buchholz, Hughes, and Chamberlain in that group. The truth is, Buchholz had more value two years ago. Ditto Hughes and Chamberlain. Tell me I'm wrong.

[Dojji]

 

I just don't see it. Really.

 

Not surprising.

[TheKilo]

Gom misses the boat yet again.

 

It's not that we aren't advocating a Buchholz for Halladay swap. It's that giving up the cost controlled years of Buchholz at the expense of one year of Roy Halladay (because that's what you have available right now) is foolish.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I'll throw another log on the fire: Would you rather have Buchholz+Holliday/Beckett for the next 5 years or just Halladay?

[BoSox21]

The truth is' date=' Buchholz had more value two years ago. Ditto Hughes and Chamberlain. Tell me I'm wrong.[/quote']

 

Buchholz has less value the year after he showed consistent success at the major league level?

[Dipre]

Crashing and burning at alarming speeds.

[Gom]

I'll throw another log on the fire: Would you rather have Buchholz+Holliday/Beckett for the next 5 years or just Halladay?

 

Except that the new Blue Jays GM said he'd be willing to grant an extension window.

 

Is there anyone here that is really that stupid to believe that ANY team would make a deal and NOT sign him to a long term extension? Seriously? Honestly?

 

If you do believe that, there is this really nice bridge I'd like to sell you in Brooklyn.

 

If it makes you feel better, assume any team that trades for Halladay extends him for 4-5 years. Whatever. A team will make the deal, if they can't sign him to an extension, the deal falls apart.

 

Buchholz has less value the year after he showed consistent success at the major league level?

Absof***inglutely. Are you clinically insane?

 

Remember, this is the guy that the Red Sox wanted to KEEP in the Santana deal. They were more willing to give up Lester. Would you give up Lester or Buchholz at this point?

 

Two years ago, Buchholz was 23, and from what I read, was the next big thing. He had just thrown a no-hitter. You really believe the two subsequent injury plagued/mediocre years, with ERA of 6.75s and 4.32 IMPROVED his status?

Crashing and burning at alarming speeds.

 

Honestly Dipre, you're just on this board now as comic relief. You ceased being a legitimate poster a while ago. See how others make their points? Try it some time. Again..all you do is bluster, and you can't prove s***. Forget about me, because that's embarrassing you, but I can't remember you winning a debate here...and a lot of posters here are 13-15 year olds whose balls haven't dropped and you're the lawyer.

 

Word of advice to all. NEVER break the law in the Dominican. You might get Dipre as your attorney.

[TheMino007]

I'm only for getting Halladay if the Sox can lock him up for the long term. Why are people complaining about his innings pitching? The guy is 32, not 37. The guy is just a work horse and won't have any shoulder problems, not all pitchers are fragile and need to be babied. This guy is the real deal. I said during the trade deadline last year, a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Halladay; that is impossible to beat in a short series. Pitching wins championships. If your not going to better offensively, than get better with pitching. If you give up less runs then you don't need to score more runs. Believe it or not as bad as the offense was at times last year, the Sox were 3rd in the AL in runs last year. I'd love to just have the Sox trade for Miguel Cabrera and sign John Lackey, but that simply isn't going to happen. Re-sign Bay, sure up the back end of the pen, trade for Halladay, and sign Gonzo to play SS for one more year and I'll be set. I think guys like Mike Lowell and Ortiz will be effective if healthy, and the offense isn't as bad as everyone will think. You bat Ortiz 6th or 7th and you will be fine; granted the team still has no true cleanup hitter, but the Sox can always re-evaluate at the trade deadline and make a move then.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Except that the new Blue Jays GM said he'd be willing to grant an extension window.

 

Is there anyone here that is really that stupid to believe that ANY team would make a deal and NOT sign him to a long term extension? Seriously? Honestly?

 

If you do believe that, there is this really nice bridge I'd like to sell you in Brooklyn.

 

sorry I meant to include that you'd have Halladay also for 5 years. But Buchholz+Holliday will cost the same as Halladay

[Spudboy]

Yes, it was for shock value. This is the kind of garbage on Yankee forums I would see all day. It's getting that way now here. Halladay is a SEASON changer. Not just a game changer. I heard on the radio after the trade deadline that the only thing that worried the Yankee players was Halladay going to Boston.

 

It doesn't really matter who the Yankees give up. A rotation of CC, Halladay, AJ and Pettite? Forget it. Book the parade now.

 

Halladay, Beckett, Lester? Party at Fenuiel Hall in October[did I spell that right?]

 

Halladay makes either team the prohibitive favorite to win it all. It will take more than one prospect who PROJECTS to be good...but hasn't been anything but mediocre so far. Put Buchholz, Hughes, and Chamberlain in that group. The truth is, Buchholz had more value two years ago. Ditto Hughes and Chamberlain. Tell me I'm wrong.

 

City Hall Plaza.

[Dipre]

I'm only for getting Halladay if the Sox can lock him up for the long term. Why are people complaining about his innings pitching? The guy is 32' date=' not 37. The guy is just a work horse and won't have any shoulder problems, not all pitchers are fragile and need to be babied. This guy is the real deal. I said during the trade deadline last year, a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Halladay; that is impossible to beat in a short series. Pitching wins championships. If your not going to better offensively, than get better with pitching. If you give up less runs then you don't need to score more runs. Believe it or not as bad as the offense was at times last year, the Sox were 3rd in the AL in runs last year. I'd love to just have the Sox trade for Miguel Cabrera and sign John Lackey, but that simply isn't going to happen. Re-sign Bay, sure up the back end of the pen, trade for Halladay, and sign Gonzo to play SS for one more year and I'll be set. I think guys like Mike Lowell and Ortiz will be effective if healthy, and the offense isn't as bad as everyone will think. You bat Ortiz 6th or 7th and you will be fine; granted the team still has no true cleanup hitter, but the Sox can always re-evaluate at the trade deadline and make a move then.[/quote']

 

Your evaluation of Halladay from a medical standpoint holds no water whatsoever. You know absolutely nothing about the current condition of his elbow and shoulder, just like everybody else who posts on the site.

[TheMino007]

Just like everyone else has no idea how Clay Buchholz will pan out. Guy is already 26 and who knows if he will ever live up to the hype.

[Dipre]

Just like everyone else has no idea how Clay Buchholz will pan out. Guy is already 26 and who knows if he will ever live up to the hype.

 

Nobody's claiming he's going to pan out like you claim to know Halladay's medical status.

 

What is being claimed however, is that 5 years of Buch are more valuable than one year of Halladay.

 

If a negotiation window is indeed awarded (a Gom exclusive, i haven't read that anywhere else) then the game changes completely.

[TheKilo]

Gom has a point about Buchholz being more highly valued two years ago. If the deal is Buchholz and another prospect not named Kelly or Westmoreland for five years of Roy Halladay at $20mm AAV, I make that deal.

 

It's close.

 

But I make it.

[Gom]

Gom has a point about Buchholz being more highly valued two years ago. If the deal is Buchholz and another prospect not named Kelly or Westmoreland for five years of Roy Halladay at $20mm AAV, I make that deal.

 

It's close.

 

But I make it.

 

Thank you Kilo. I think that if you have to trade Kelly AND Westmoreland as well as Clay, you do it. Same with the Yankees. They ask for Hughes, Montero and Jackson, and I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on that deal.

 

There will always be another prospect that's hyped and ends up being forgotten.

 

If you get one championship from the trade...it's a good deal.

 

If a negotiation window is indeed awarded (a Gom exclusive, i haven't read that anywhere else) then the game changes completely.

Again you question me, and again I give you more proof that you know f***ing nothing about anything, and you just like to run your mouth. This isn't new news, or a GOM exclusive, this s*** is a week old. Go back to flipping cheeseburgers.

 

Nov. 17th.

 

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/11/jays_gm_keeping_an_open_mind.html

 

http://www.mlbnotebook.com/2009-articles/november/jays-to-give-halladay-suitors-a-negotiation-window.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+mlbnotebook+(MLB+Notebook)

 

Nov. 18th

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-11-18/jays-gm-willing-give-teams-time-talk-contract-halladay-before-making-trade

 

Now go away and let the adults talk. We'll let you back in at the beginning of spring training. Maybe.

[Dipre]

Thank you Kilo. I think that if you have to trade Kelly AND Westmoreland as well as Clay, you do it. Same with the Yankees. They ask for Hughes, Montero and Jackson, and I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on that deal.

 

There will always be another prospect that's hyped and ends up being forgotten.

 

If you get one championship from the trade...it's a good deal.

 

 

Again you question me, and again I give you more proof that you know f***ing nothing about anything, and you just like to run your mouth. This isn't new news, or a GOM exclusive, this s*** is a week old. Go back to flipping cheeseburgers.

 

Nov. 17th.

 

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/11/jays_gm_keeping_an_open_mind.html

 

http://www.mlbnotebook.com/2009-articles/november/jays-to-give-halladay-suitors-a-negotiation-window.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+mlbnotebook+(MLB+Notebook)

 

Nov. 18th

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/article/2009-11-18/jays-gm-willing-give-teams-time-talk-contract-halladay-before-making-trade

 

Now go away and let the adults talk. We'll let you back in at the beginning of spring training. Maybe.

 

The butthurt because i said i hadn't read it before is both hilarious and ridiculous.

 

If you took the time to post with sources in the first place, i wouldn't have to question you.

 

Now go away and let the people who post with credible sources on hand talk.

[bostonfan32]

beautiful to read haha

[bostonfan32]

I think we are better off going after Cabrera/Gonzalez and signing Lackey.

 

Bay obviously must be re-signed. I think if Halladay nets more of a Santana return, we could offer Buchholz and like Bowden and then flip Kelly and someone for Cabrera but thats a pipe dream.

 

Bay

Lackey

Cabrera

 

over

 

Bay

Halladay

FIB orJAG

 

would be ideal

[Dipre]

Thank you Kilo. I think that if you have to trade Kelly AND Westmoreland as well as Clay, you do it. Same with the Yankees. They ask for Hughes, Montero and Jackson, and I wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger on that deal.

 

There will always be another prospect that's hyped and ends up being forgotten.

 

If you get one championship from the trade...it's a good deal.

 

 

Gems like this is what you get for agreeing with Gom, Kilo.

 

And with that in mind, good night everyone.

[Spudboy]

I like cheeseburgers.

 

With bacon and mayonnaise.

[Gom]

 

If you took the time to post with sources in the first place, i wouldn't have to question you.

 

 

I didn't realize I had to post sources to NEWS THAT IS A WEEK OLD. Is the internet that slow on that island you live on?

I like cheeseburgers.

 

With bacon and mayonnaise.

 

It's so funny. He talks about one year, not even realizing that week old news states that the Jays will allow for an extension. Then when I say it, he calls it a "gom exclusive". Then when I give him multiple sources, he claims....get ready for the laugh...drum roll please...I have no credibility [which by the way, is the word he hypes on since I called him out on it on another infamous thread]. However, when I thought the Sox should sign Scutaro, he called me out on it and said it was a career year. I looked it up, and Scutaro had a good year. I said I didn't realize it, admitted it, and dropped it.

 

Even when he is raped, he still acts like a f***ing immature child. It's the internet version of "I know you are, but what am I?". At least he had the sense to go away tonight.

 

Kilo, I'm not debating whether they should trade Westmoreland and the other guy. Honestly, I have no f***ing clue who they are. My point is that Halladay gives you THE dominant team for three years. With the resources both of our teams have, that's plenty of time to recoup those losses.

 

Eventually, trading tomorrow for today will bite you in the ass. However, with the fiscal inequalities inherent in baseball, well, the money renders that damage as negligible, if not virtually non-existent.

[TheKilo]

See, here's the thing. I don't think they get Halladay to sign an extension for less than $20mm AAV. If they are going to spend that much money on one pitcher, and potentially lose out on Beckett when he becomes a free agent as a result, I am not comfortable giving away the Sox's three best trading chips.

 

Two of three, fine, and I'm probably only 52/48 on that deal.

[Gom]

See, here's the thing. I don't think they get Halladay to sign an extension for less than $20mm AAV. If they are going to spend that much money on one pitcher, and potentially lose out on Beckett when he becomes a free agent as a result, I am not comfortable giving away the Sox's three best trading chips.

 

Two of three, fine, and I'm probably only 52/48 on that deal.

 

I don't understand why you'd lose Beckett. After this season, Ortiz and Lowell come off the books. Ortiz will probably come back at a discount, a huge one. There is more than enough money to bring back Beckett.

 

Lowell is gone. Youk slides to third, Martinez takes over first, and you sign a defensive catcher on the cheap. Where is the problem?

[TheKilo]

I don't understand why you'd lose Beckett. After this season, Ortiz and Lowell come off the books. Ortiz will probably come back at a discount, a huge one. There is more than enough money to bring back Beckett.

 

Lowell is gone. Youk slides to third, Martinez takes over first, and you sign a defensive catcher on the cheap. Where is the problem?

 

You may have a point there with respect to the finances, but I'm still not comfortable giving the Jays that much for a 32 year old pitcher with a lot of miles on that arm.

 

If the FO trades for Halladay and then signs Bay or Holliday, I'll be comfortable with the team going in to next season even if Lowell is manning 3rd.

[example1]

I don't really see what you guys love about Buchholz so much. Everyone knows I'm more of a veteran than prospect kind of guy...but his numbers are not overwhelming to me(...)

 

(...)I just don't see it. He hasn't pitched a full season, he's not exactly young for a prospect, most of these pitchers had been pitching YEARS in the majors.

 

Only bad or pitching-desperate teams have their 20 or 21 year old kids starting consistently. You know that. His playing time is a factor of playing for a good franchise that can't tolerate guys struggling on the fly.

 

He doesn't have a blazing fastball, he doesn't overpower you.

 

What data do you use to support this claim?

 

Out of pitchers who threw 80 or more innings last year he ranked 20th in fastball velocity at 93.5. Zack Greinke throws 93.7 and ranked 17th.

 

Anyone who consistently throws in the mid-90s is throwing hard. If they have effective secondary pitches nobody will criticize their fastball. Nobody criticizes his fastball.

 

Players who ranked below Buchholz?

 

Among others, Oswalt, Carpenter, Garza, Price, Cueto, Halladay, Cain, Joba, Lincecum, Harden, Hanson, Gallardo, Billingsly, Floyd, Liriano, Peavy, Lackey, etc.,

 

These are the very best pitchers in the world and Buchholz currently ranks near the top at 24.

 

Last three years:

 

2007: 91.1

2008: 92.6

2009: 93.5

 

 

Given that playing time (i.e., IP) is not reflective of actual talent in a young team, we should look at pitchers by age.

 

Are there other pitchers who went on to be good but who had yet to fully display that through age 24?

 

Roy Halladay vs. Clay Buchholz, thru age 24:

 

[Table] NAME | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB |

Halladay | 336.1 | 4.95 | 1.537 | 6.3 | 1.59 |

Buchholz | 190.2 | 4.91 | 1.495 | 7.6 | 1.86 | [/table]

 

Buchholz had a better ERA, a better WHIP, better K/9, and a better K/BB than Roy Halladay through the same age.

 

Chris Carpenter vs. Clay Buchholz, thru age 24:

 

[table] NAME | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB |

Carpenter | 406.1 | 4.52 | 1.496 | 6.6 | 2.03 |

Buchholz | 190.2 | 4.91 | 1.495 | 7.6 | 1.86 | [/table]

 

Similar WHIP, better K's.

 

Sandy Koufax vs. Clay Buchholz, thru age 24:

 

[table] NAME | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB |

Koufax | 691.2 | 4.10 | 1.428 | 8.9 | 1.69 |

Bucholz | 190.2 | 4.91 | 1.495 | 7.6 | 1.86 | [/table]

 

Similar WHIP, better K/BB, much heavier hitters era (ERA+ = 100 for Koufax, 95 for Buchholz)

 

Curt Schilling vs. Clay Buchholz, thru age 24

[table] NAME | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB | ERA + |

Schilling | 145.0 | 4.16 | 1.517 | 7.0 | 1.59 | 88 |

Buchholz | 190.2 | 4.91 | 1.497 | 7.6 | 1.86 | 95 | [/table]

 

Buchholz is better in every category except ERA.

 

Bob Gibson vs. Clay Buchholz, thru age 24:

 

[table] NAME | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | K/BB | ERA + |

Gibson | 162.1 | 4.55 | 1.608 | 6.5 | 1.34 | 91 |

Buchholz | 190.2 | 4.91 | 1.497 | 7.6 | 1.86 | 95 | [/table]

 

Again, better down the line...

 

I'm not here touting Hughes or Chamberlain as superstars...they're not. To think you can get Halladay that easily..well, you're believing your own team's press clippings. He's just not that good...better yet, he's nowhere near as good as most of you believe. I'm sure if you go check out most pitchers who had similar numbers, you would find that Buchholz can be a decent pitcher...but not an ace.

 

I just listed you 5 pitchers. 2 of them are in the HOF, 2 of them could one-day get there, all 5 are bona-fide aces. There are more, many, many more. There are plenty of pitchers who are dominant at 24, but there are also plenty who have only begun to pitch in the bigs by that age and some who have been pitching for awhile and are worse.

 

If I was the Jays, and this is as objective as I can make it, I'd probably want Hughes more than any of the three. He's got an assortment of pitches, and he's got two years on Clay. However, I'd want to restock my entire farm system if I was them.

 

You might be right about this. But Hughes IS a special arm. You and I might disagree about that. Buchholz and Hughes both have an assortment of pitches.

 

I don't know who they'd want from the Red Sox, but I'd be looking at Hughes, Montero, Jackson and maybe Cano. The Jays are in an incredible position. As long as they grant the team time to work out an extension, they can restock their team and they hold the balance of power in the AL East in their hand. They can effectively gut one of our team's farm system, and turn themselves into a solid team in three years with the right move.

 

Only if one team completely overspends to get Halladay. That's the only way the Jays can gut these farm systems. The Jays had their chance last year and didn't take it. Now their options are more limited and their asking price has to be lower.

 

You guys are way too high on Clay. Way too high. My opinion, anyways.

 

I don't think you defend your points very well. He's got elite stuff at 24 in a frame that is still developing.