Harden to Red Sox?

[BSN07]

Do you know the implications of a torn labrum?

 

Seriously?

 

Again, betting on damaged goods is not a good idea, and this year is a textbook example of it, not to mention the fact that both Penny and Smoltz had injuries that could be considered minor compared to Bedard's.

 

Stop it.

Yes I do. But I don't believe it anymore risky then signing a 41 year old coming off major shoulder surgery.

What do you guys think of Jose Reyes?

This was brought up earlier. Around the time the thread got locked.I missed what happened and didn't go back to find out either. Not sure if he is the subject that caused this or the over hanging "banned" threat it has for bringing it up. So until I know it's ok I'm going to not comment

Why is Bedard even still being mentioned? He has a torn labrum' date=' and he wouldn't even be available until sometime later into the next season. Not to mention it could, and probably will, have a dramatic effect on his performance. Again, even without that torn labrum, I'd still consider Harden slightly favored ahead of Bedard, but that's irrelevant at this point.[/quote']

 

I already stated he would be a second half addition. June at the earliest.

[Dipre]

Yes I do. But I don't believe it anymore risky then signing a 41 year old coming off major shoulder surgery.

 

If it's a torn labrum we're talking about, actually it is.

[BSN07]

If it's a torn labrum we're talking about' date=' actually it is.[/quote']

 

I looked up Smoltz's injury and all I came across so far was something that said major shoulder surgery. Do you happen to know his exact injury was?

 

I'm not try to discount a torn labrum. I realize how bad of an injury that is. I just figure with him being younger, and having a good shoulder program like the Sox, the odds of him recovering should be pretty good. Or as good as a 41 yr old coming off major shoulder surgery.

[Dipre]

I looked up Smoltz's injury and all I came across so far was something that said major shoulder surgery. Do you happen to know his exact injury was?

 

I'm not try to discount a torn labrum. I realize how bad of an injury that is. I just figure with him being younger, and having a good shoulder program like the Sox, the odds of him recovering should be pretty good. Or as good as a 41 yr old coming off major shoulder surgery.

 

He had "Extensive deterioration of the labrum", but no tear was found, they basically cleaned it up and he went to rehab.

 

However, upon reading this, it's more and more clear the John Smoltz signing was a bad idea, but hindsight is 20/20 so whatever.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes I do. But I don't believe it anymore risky then signing a 41 year old coming off major shoulder surgery.

 

This was brought up earlier. Around the time the thread got locked.I missed what happened and didn't go back to find out either. Not sure if he is the subject that caused this or the over hanging "banned" threat it has for bringing it up. So until I know it's ok I'm going to not comment

 

 

I already stated he would be a second half addition. June at the earliest.

 

I know, I think I was a part of the Reyes stuff, thats why I posted it, lol.

[Dipre]

The Reyes discussion was not the reason for the thread altering.

[a700hitter]

If I was going to take a risk on an injured pitcher, I'd go with Pedro who will be 3 years removed from surgery. I could see him being able to make 25-30 starts next season. Brandon Webb is just coming off surgery, so he'll probably need a full year to get back to full strength. Why should we let him spend that year on our DL. Harden is practically a permanent resident of the DL, and he never pitches for a full saeson.

[example1]

If I was going to take a risk on an injured pitcher' date=' I'd go with Pedro who will be 3 years removed from surgery. I could see him being able to make 25-30 starts next season. Brandon Webb is just coming off surgery, so he'll probably need a full year to get back to full strength. Why should we let him spend that year on our DL. Harden is practically a permanent resident of the DL, and he never pitches for a full saeson.[/quote']

 

Webb, when healthy, is a pitcher that cannot be acquired for any reasonable cost. I would absolutely and without hesitation be fine with the Sox getting him on a two year deal/reclaimation project. Hell, if the Sox owned the rights to this guy at a reasonable cost for 3 years I wouldn't complain.

 

He finished in the top two of the NL CY Young voting in 2006, 2007 and 2008, winning in 2006. If he returned to form, even only in 2011, he would be 32 and would certainly be a solid guy to have at t he #4 or #5 spot in a year or two.

 

Of course, I disagree WAY less about the benefits of the "lightning in a bottle" approach to the bottom of a pitching staff. I'm all for it, even after Smoltz and Penny. Hell, I liked it when they brought in Wade Miller. Give me Brandon Webb, Rich Harden (who is less of a reclamation project... yet), or even CM Wang at a very low cost.

[a700hitter]

Webb, when healthy, is a pitcher that cannot be acquired for any reasonable cost. I would absolutely and without hesitation be fine with the Sox getting him on a two year deal/reclaimation project. Hell, if the Sox owned the rights to this guy at a reasonable cost for 3 years I wouldn't complain.

 

He finished in the top two of the NL CY Young voting in 2006, 2007 and 2008, winning in 2006. If he returned to form, even only in 2011, he would be 32 and would certainly be a solid guy to have at t he #4 or #5 spot in a year or two.

 

Of course, I disagree WAY less about the benefits of the "lightning in a bottle" approach to the bottom of a pitching staff. I'm all for it, even after Smoltz and Penny. Hell, I liked it when they brought in Wade Miller. Give me Brandon Webb, Rich Harden (who is less of a reclamation project... yet), or even CM Wang at a very low cost.

Three years? What if he never returns to form? How reasonable of a cost would that be?

[example1]

Three years? What if he never returns to form? How reasonable of a cost would that be?

 

What if he does return to form? Obviously some front-end work would need to be done to see what his specific condition is and the chances of being healthy.

 

I think the cost of a player in these situations should be directly proportional to the potential payoff of their full recovery. Brandon Webb healthy is one of the games best pitchers. I would argue that he's better than John Lackey, who will undoubtedly get 15m/yr for 4-5 years. I would prospose that 15m over 3 years for a guy like Webb wouldn't be absurd.

[a700hitter]

What if he does return to form? Obviously some front-end work would need to be done to see what his specific condition is and the chances of being healthy.

 

I think the cost of a player in these situations should be directly proportional to the potential payoff of their full recovery. Brandon Webb healthy is one of the games best pitchers. I would argue that he's better than John Lackey, who will undoubtedly get 15m/yr for 4-5 years. I would prospose that 15m over 3 years for a guy like Webb wouldn't be absurd.

What is the percentage of dominant pitchers that return to dominance after major surgery in their 30's? Taking a 1 year flyer on a lame armed pitcher is one thing, but spending $15 million is way overboard.

[Dipre]

What if he does return to form? Obviously some front-end work would need to be done to see what his specific condition is and the chances of being healthy.

 

I think the cost of a player in these situations should be directly proportional to the potential payoff of their full recovery. Brandon Webb healthy is one of the games best pitchers. I would argue that he's better than John Lackey, who will undoubtedly get 15m/yr for 4-5 years. I would prospose that 15m over 3 years for a guy like Webb wouldn't be absurd.

 

Way too much money.

[example1]

Way too much money.

 

D-Backs picking up his $8.5m option for next year, so the point is moot.

 

I still don't think $5m/yr is too much for him if they thought his health could come back around. I bet if the D-Backs had him for 3 x 5 they would be happy.

 

WAR 06-09:

 

Year Webb Beckett

2006 7.0 2.1

2007 6.9 6.5

2008 6.1 5.0

2009 -2.1 5.3

 

If it worked out you would have an ace on your staff for very little. If it didn't you're $5m down for 3 seasons, or roughly 4% of the team's payroll. Makes sense to me.

 

Again, though, it is moot.

[Dipre]

D-Backs picking up his $8.5m option for next year, so the point is moot.

 

I still don't think $5m/yr is too much for him if they thought his health could come back around. I bet if the D-Backs had him for 3 x 5 they would be happy.

 

WAR 06-09:

 

Year Webb Beckett

2006 7.0 2.1

2007 6.9 6.5

2008 6.1 5.0

2009 -2.1 5.3

 

If it worked out you would have an ace on your staff for very little. If it didn't you're $5m down for 3 seasons, or roughly 4% of the team's payroll. Makes sense to me.

 

Again, though, it is moot.

 

Therein lies the problem.

 

But as you said, it's moot.

[example1]

Therein lies the problem.

 

But as you said, it's moot.

 

I have to believe that his health is likely to be better if the D-Backs are going to exercise the option at $8.5m. They're not a club that should be wasting money.

[Keeper]

If I was going to take a risk on an injured pitcher' date=' I'd go with Pedro who will be 3 years removed from surgery. I could see him being able to make 25-30 starts next season. Brandon Webb is just coming off surgery, so he'll probably need a full year to get back to full strength. Why should we let him spend that year on our DL. Harden is practically a permanent resident of the DL, and he never pitches for a full saeson.[/quote']

 

Pedro over Harden and Webb? What are you smoking?

[CoachC.]

Pedro can't pitch a full season anymore, signing him after the all star break is a different equation, but I'm not sure he can keep up with not only the AL East but the AL in general. When signing free agents you really have to keep your sentiments, heart, and past memories out of the equation (ex. Nomar)

[Dojji]

Pedro over Harden and Webb? What are you smoking?

 

He's still smoking the 90's apparently.

[mvp 78]

As a fan, I'd love to see Pedro wear a Sox cap once more. However, I'd rather Harden as a 5. Bedard is ok, but I don't think he'll ever be the pitcher he once was. We already know what Harden brings to the table. He'll pitch lights out for a few games. He'll have trouble pitching past the 5th innning in others. He'll need a few weeks off during the season. I'm ok with that for a number 5.

 

As for Reyes, it's probably nothing but a pipe dream. SS has been a mess for us since 04 and I don't see that changing anytime soon. With Epstein, it just feels like an afterthought (not considering his unforgivable mancrush on Lugo).

[TheMino007]

I'm not sure Rich Harden is really the answer for the Red Sox's (minor) rotation problems heading into next season. After being burnt by the low risk reward signings of last off season of Penny and Smoltz, I don't think Theo really wants to go that route again this off season. Neither do I. Harden will still demand some pretty big money based on his talent and past performance, and I think some team will be crazy to give him a multi-year deal. I want a guy I know will make 30+ starts and who will put up solid numbers depending on his spot in the rotation. With a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Buccholz, and (Wake?) I think we are fine. I'd love to get Halladay or Felix Hernandez, and the Sox should investigate those trade options, but I feel above all we need to bring in another power bat (Adrian Gonzalez). Of course with Wake's health issues over the past couple of years the Sox should sign a guy who can pitch out of the pen and start. I don't want Michael Bowden making up on the big league roster for any large stretches of time next year. Tazawa isn't a bad option to start if Wake goes down again (actualy not if but when).

[Dipre]

I'm not sure Rich Harden is really the answer for the Red Sox's (minor) rotation problems heading into next season. After being burnt by the low risk reward signings of last off season of Penny and Smoltz' date=' I don't think Theo really wants to go that route again this off season. Neither do I. Harden will still demand some pretty big money based on his talent and past performance, and I think some team will be crazy to give him a multi-year deal. I want a guy I know will make 30+ starts and who will put up solid numbers depending on his spot in the rotation. With a rotation of Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, Buccholz, and (Wake?) I think we are fine. I'd love to get Halladay or Felix Hernandez, and the Sox should investigate those trade options, but I feel above all we need to bring in another power bat (Adrian Gonzalez). Of course with Wake's health issues over the past couple of years the Sox should sign a guy who can pitch out of the pen and start. I don't want Michael Bowden making up on the big league roster for any large stretches of time next year. Tazawa isn't a bad option to start if Wake goes down again (actualy not if but when).[/quote']

 

Agree with everything except Harden.

 

If they're not going after an above-average pitcher like Lackey, they should try either an innings-eater or two high-talent health risk pitchers to fight it out for the 5 spot.

[TheMino007]

Theres an idea. The Sox could just sign Lackey and then trade prospects for the power bat that we need. I've never really felt Lackey as being a true ace, but he won't have to be in our rotation. Hell, he could be the number three guy. But I do have some concerns about him. He is 30, and over the last two years he has made stints on the DL. He just didn't seem like the normal John Lackey I was accustomed to seeing in the past.

[Dipre]

Theres an idea. The Sox could just sign Lackey and then trade prospects for the power bat that we need. I've never really felt Lackey as being a true ace' date=' but he won't have to be in our rotation. Hell, he could be the number three guy. But I do have some concerns about him. He is 30, and over the last two years he has made stints on the DL. He just didn't seem like the normal John Lackey I was accustomed to seeing in the past.[/quote']

 

Injuries.

 

But do you think the Sox would have money to sign both a LF and Lackey?

[TheMino007]

Spending is the way to go, just ask the Yankees. This team has a lot to do in order make up ground with the Yankees, so Theo can't be stingy with the checkbook this offseason. Obviously a LF comes first. We saw in the playoffs that the lack of offense cost us. Despite being 3rd in the AL in runs, the offense had way too many cold stretches throughout the course of the season.

[TheKilo]

Yes.

 

I won't listen to the payroll excuse this offseason.

[Dipre]

Yes.

 

I won't listen to the payroll excuse this offseason.

 

I honestly think they could, and should.

 

But will they?

[TheMino007]

if we are talking about paying for guys coming off of injuries, why not Tim Hudson then? We all know Theo will sign one veteran pitcher that is high risk, high reward. Mentioned so far has been Ben Sheets and Rich Harden in the media. While both of these guys can be studs, both will without a doubt be on the DL for 60+ days next year. One name I have not heard much mention of is Tim Hudson who can opt out of his 2010 contact which is a player option for $12M. While this is a of money, I would think he would rather have the security of a 2 year contract at $9M+. Besides the TJ, the guy has been a horse and also has played in the AL. He is 34 but he is arm should be fairly fresh having missed most of 2009. Having Hudson as your #3 would make the Sox rotation amazing. I would be in favor of the Sox giving him a one year deal at $10M and a team option fo 2011 at 12.5 milion.

[kreinbihl34]

if we are talking about paying for guys coming off of injuries' date=' why not Tim Hudson then? We all know Theo will sign one veteran pitcher that is high risk, high reward. Mentioned so far has been Ben Sheets and Rich Harden in the media. While both of these guys can be studs, both will without a doubt be on the DL for 60+ days next year. One name I have not heard much mention of is Tim Hudson who can opt out of his 2010 contact which is a player option for $12M. While this is a of money, I would think he would rather have the security of a 2 year contract at $9M+. Besides the TJ, the guy has been a horse and also has played in the AL. He is 34 but he is arm should be fairly fresh having missed most of 2009. Having Hudson as your #3 would make the Sox rotation amazing. I would be in favor of the Sox giving him a one year deal at $10M and a team option fo 2011 at 12.5 milion.[/quote']

 

It's been reported for some time that he's returning to the Braves.

[TheMino007]

when was this reported? I must have missed something? Has he def decided to stay with them?

[MNSoxChief102]

I'd gladly sign Harden but Bedard has been a train wreck since he left Fenway South. Thanks but no thanks.

 

When he's healthy, Harden has excellent stuff and has the ability to be the true #3-4 starter we've been missing. Behind Josh and Les we've got Buch (who's too inconsistent to count on) and that's about it... If we could somehow pull off a coup and snatch King Felix out of Seattle for Buch, Reddick, Bowden, + another piece and then sign Harden, we'd really be in business.

 

Just think... Beckett, Lester, Hernandez, Harden, Wake/Dice... now that's a rotation