Official Red Sox offseason thread

[example1]

I find it hard to believe they could move Johan. But maybe Beltran/Reyes/Wright could be available:dunno:

 

 

I changed it for you.

 

If David Wright were available then of course the Sox should explore that option. He's a great player and would be a nice fit. The other two have updsides and downsides that make the decision a bit tougher: Reyes's injury, Beltran's injury history, cost and age. Both would be nice additions, all other things being equal.

[BSN07]

I changed it for you.

 

If David Wright were available then of course the Sox should explore that option. He's a great player and would be a nice fit. The other two have updsides and downsides that make the decision a bit tougher: Reyes's injury, Beltran's injury history, cost and age. Both would be nice additions, all other things being equal.

 

Thanks, your right. I's rank him last out of the 4 in likely hood of being traded.

 

 

If they got Wright, I might be able to live with Lowrie being the everyday SS:D

 

 

He is putting up Pedroia type numbers in that new park. Which are good, but not CIF #'s. He will never be the HR threat he once was playing at Citi field IMO. The Sox could probably make an attractive offer.

[RedSox2737]

I only have three words to say about it: Please sign Bay

[Dojji]

I agree with that. Don't go messing around trying to be clever. Holliday isn't a big enough upgrade over Bay to risk winding up with neither, and the extra supplemental first isn't worth dealing with an inadequate left fielder either.

[example1]

... I'm quoting from the Game 2 thread, moving it to offseason discussion...

 

Even with the power numbers' date=' i simply think Bay, as a hitter, is too vulnerable. I'd rather get Holliday and his superior speed and defense.[/quote']

 

I'm concerned about letting either of these guys go to New York.

 

I think there are two semi-tolerable scenarios:

 

1) The Sox sign Bay, and Holliday--loving the idea of hitting behind Pujols in a great base ball city in the NL--re-signs in St. Louis.

 

2) They could also try to sign both to prepare the offense for the losses of Ortiz, Lowell and Martinez following 2010. Drew's last year is 2012. There are significan tholes coming up.

 

3) To me, the 3rd option--signing Holliday alone, letting Bay go--could be worse than it seems. I have visions of Jason Bay hitting behind Teixeira and A-Rod for the next few years. Bay seems like the more likely guy the Yankees would pursue, specifically to screw over the Red Sox. It's a very Yankees-esque move: details be damned, we know this move screws over the Red Sox and Bay and Holliday are both well above average options. Let's get their guy. They would plop down $19.5 million/yr for 4 or 5 years and leave the Sox hopes in the hands of Holliday, who really liked St. Louis. I don't think the FO can let that happen.

 

 

It really is a very important offseason, regardless of what happens with the playoffs. The Sox undoubtedly will be looking for a LH/SW bat to mix into the lineup and it seems like Prince Fielder (available after 2010 season) and Adrian Gonzalez (available after 2011) are the best options out there, given their need for someone with experience, a good eye, and the ability to hit LH for power. The question might be whether they wait for those guys--and the Sox continue largely as they are in 2009, with lots of questions for beyond 2010--or whether they just start making the changes now. In the interest of wanting to continue to have 95-win seasons I think they should start retooling sooner than later.

[SoxFan02]

The Brewers have Fielder under control for one more season after his current contract expires so he won't be a free-agent until after 2011 as well.

[jacksonianmarch]

To be totally honest, I wouldnt be surprised if the yankees let Damon walk, resign Matsui for a yr and then go after another pitcher like Lackey.

[MANNYHOF24]

Baseball is still to be played boys. Lets not forget how dominant we have been at fenway this year. I have seen to much crazy s*** over the past 7 years to give up at this point.

[BSN07]

Baseball is still to be played boys. Lets not forget how dominant we have been at fenway this year. I have seen to much crazy s*** over the past 7 years to give up at this point.

 

I don't think anyone is giving up. He did say regardless of what happens in the playoffs.

 

This team has some holes to fill over the next couple years to continue to be contenders. This is no secret. All he's doing is talking about what some of those moves might be.

[Dipre]

I've said it before and i'll say it again, this lineup needs a bit more balance and a true thumper.

[Cocos Disciples]

I've said it before and i'll say it again' date=' this lineup needs a bit more balance and a true thumper.[/quote']

 

*Makes obligatory Thumper joke*

[Dojji]

I've said it before and i'll say it again' date=' this lineup needs a bit more balance and a true thumper.[/quote']

 

OK. I imagine that at least 28 other teams have fans saying exactly the same thing but OK.

 

I don't see a lot of true thumpers that are likely to be available on simple terms.

[Dipre]

OK. I imagine that at least 28 other teams have fans saying exactly the same thing but OK.

 

I don't see a lot of true thumpers that are likely to be available on simple terms.

 

Why do you have to be such a smug little s***?

 

I'm sorry, i'm not trying to stir s*** up, but seriously.

 

The only other teams in the postseason to not have a true 4-hitter are Anaheim and Colorado, and Colorado had it but traded him away.

 

The Twins have an injured Morneau, the Yanks have A-Rod, the Dodgers have Manny, the Phillies have Howard, the Cards have Pujols/Holliday, and Detroit, had they made it, would have had Miguel Cabrera.

 

I'll list other teams with a legitimate 4-hitter just for shits and giggles.

 

Mets: Delgado/Beltran

 

Milwaukee: Fielder

 

Cubs: Ramirez/Lee (who appears to have finally overcome his injuries)

 

Texas: Hamilton

 

Giants: Panda.

 

And that's not even mentioning teams who, coming into the year had a true cleanup hitter but they declined/got injured/simply sucked.

 

In other words, the lineup of the Boston Red Sox lacks a true offensive threat, because it has a lot of good all-around hitters, but no one that makes the other manager plan ahead for his ABs. It doesn't matter if you think "Oh 28 other teams" or whatever other "WTF?" inducing thought goes through your head, it's simply the truth.

[Dojji]

Honest question: If Bay is not a true #4 hitter, why is Howard?

 

I consider Beltran a "true" #3 hitter. Both his OBP and his speed component make him a better fit for that slot than as opposed to a "true" #4.

 

I think Josh Hamilton needs to have another great year before he's a "true" #4. He really wasn't one this year. The Rangers really smarted from his regression, too.

 

Delgado is a walking dionsaur. I don't think anyone, the Mets included, is really counting on him to continue at 2008 levels much longer.

 

That pretty much leaves Fielder and Gonzalez as definites, Aramis Ramirez as a probable, Derek Lee as a good career guy with a nice year last year, and Sandoval who's got a great chance but is a rookie..

[Dipre]

Honest question: If Bay is not a true #4 hitter' date=' why is Howard?[/quote']

 

Because unlike Bay, Howard scares the s*** out of opposing pitchers.

 

Listen, he's probably every bit as vulnerable as Bay, the difference is, they have to adapt to Howard because he's a threat to go yard at any moment, be it at home or on the road, he's just that much of a threat.

 

Honest question: If Bay is a cleanup hitter, then why does Tito keep batting him 6th?

[Dojji]

Because unlike Bay' date=' Howard scares the s*** out of opposing pitchers.[/quote']

 

You lose a lot of your sabremetric cred when you use arguments like this. I understand the scariness factor, but honestly Howard is very vulnerable indeed, even though he can theoretically run into one at any time.

Listen, he's probably every bit as vulnerable as Bay, the difference is, they have to adapt to Howard because he's a threat to go yard at any moment, be it at home or on the road, he's just that much of a threat.

 

I'm not buying. Bay is a legitimate 30+ HR threat in his own right, if pitchers aren't taking him seriously when he comes up to the plate it's because they're stupid.

 

Honest question: If Bay is a cleanup hitter, then why does Tito keep batting him 6th?

 

You're using tito's lineup construction to back up an argument? You?

[Dipre]

You lose a lot of your sabremetric cred when you use arguments like this. I understand the scariness factor' date=' but honestly Howard is very vulnerable indeed, even though he can theoretically run into one at any time. [/quote']

 

"Sabermatrics cred?"

 

What the f*** is that ********?

 

I don't give a f*** about that. I've been a proponent of baseball intangibles ever since i came to this board. Stop making s*** up.

 

I'm not buying. Bay is a legitimate 30+ HR threat in his own right, if pitchers aren't taking him seriously when he comes up to the plate it's because they're stupid.

 

Bay is not a legitimate "Holy s***, i'll crap my pants" power threat, in fact, remember this is his CAREER YEAR in, not surprisingly, his CONTRACT SEASON.

 

Hell, he even had a career high in LD% and FB%, as well as the highest HR/FB% since 2004, even while having a career-high 162 Ks.

 

You're using tito's lineup construction to back up an argument? You?

 

Since you think Tito's the Best.Manager.Ever, i want you to explain that to me.

[a700hitter]

Honest question: If Bay is a cleanup hitter, then why does Tito keep batting him 6th?

Excellent point. Bay is a very good hitter with plus power, but he is not a great hitter. He just isn't. Manny is a great hitter. Pujols is a great hitter. These guys are few and far between in the history of the game. We have a bunch of plus hitters which is about the best we can do (stack the lineup with high OBP plus hitters from 1 to 8), because great hitters don't grow on trees. They are very difficult to find no matter how many draft picks you have. I realize that the situation with Manny had become untenable and he had to go, but I think the FO could have done a better job. They let the situation deteriorate. Manny is an all time great hitter, not a very good hitter like Bay or Youk or Drew. He's an all-time great. When you are lucky enough to get a guy like that, you do your best to keep them and not let them go help another team win. This FO could hardly wait to move Manny. They had been trying to move him for years. Thankfully, they had been unsuccessful in their attempts, or their wouldn't be 2 banners hanging over Fenway.(Please save the "you have to move on" comment, because that's just stupid.)

[Dipre]

Excellent point. Bay is a very good hitter with plus power' date=' but he is not a great hitter. He just isn't.[/b'] Manny is a great hitter. Pujols is a great hitter. These guys are few and far between in the history of the game. We have a bunch of plus hitters which is about the best we can do (stack the lineup with high OBP plus hitters from 1 to 8), because great hitters don't grow on trees. They are very difficult to find no matter how many draft picks you have. I realize that the situation with Manny had become untenable and he had to go, but I think the FO could have done a better job. They let the situation deteriorate. Manny is an all time great hitter, not a very good hitter like Bay or Youk or Drew. He's an all-time great. When you are lucky enough to get a guy like that, you do your best to keep them and not let them go help another team win. This FO could hardly wait to move Manny. They had been trying to move him for years. Thankfully, they had been unsuccessful in their attempts, or their wouldn't be 2 banners hanging over Fenway.(Please save the "you have to move on" comment, because that's just stupid.)

 

That's exactly the point, plain and simple.

[Dojji]

Bay is not a legitimate "Holy s***' date=' i'll crap my pants" power threat, in fact, remember this is his CAREER YEAR in, not surprisingly, his CONTRACT SEASON.[/quote']

 

Jason Bay's career season is 2005 with Pittsburgh.

 

His performance in 2006 was also better than this year.

 

This is nothing resembling a career year for Bay. In fact it's barely above average for him, even when you throw in his injury-riddled 2007 campaign.

Hell, he even had a career high in LD% and FB%, as well as the highest HR/FB% since 2004, even while having a career-high 162 Ks.

 

that's fine as far as it goes, except for the little detail that none of it is true except FB% which is not necessarily a good thing (Bay had a career high in popups this year).

 

His HR/FB, and LD were both substantially higher in 2005. And for that matter, Bay's BABIP is below his career average this year. And if you looked up these numbers you probably saw that and chose not to report it. Hmm.

 

Since you think Tito's the Best.Manager.Ever, i want you to explain that to me.

 

since you don't think that, why on earth would you appeal to his authority on a subject like this?

[Dipre]

Jason Bay's career season is 2005 with Pittsburgh.

 

His performance in 2006 was also better than this year.

 

This is nothing resembling a career year for Bay. In fact it's barely above average for him, even when you throw in his injury-riddled 2007 campaign.

 

Reasons stated below.

 

that's fine as far as it goes, except for the little detail that none of it is true except FB% which is not necessarily a good thing (Bay had a career high in popups this year).

 

His HR/FB, and LD were both substantially higher in 2005. And for that matter, Bay's BABIP is below his career average this year. And if you looked up these numbers you probably saw that and chose not to report it. Hmm.

 

You think .338 and .355 BABIP's are sustainable in the long run? LOL

 

It is for "power" hitters, and i didn't "choose" not to report BABIP, it doesn't help your argument, it helps mine, because Bay put up all these numbers with a right-around league-average BABIP. Do you think we're the only ones who look at advanced stats?

 

I'd be willing to concede 2005 as his "career year" had it not happened with Pittsburgh, i'm sorry, but the "Al/NL" and "Produced for a contender" argument are very heavy in my book. I'll admit it is debateable though.

 

since you don't think that, why on earth would you appeal to his authority on a subject like this?

 

Because you think he's the "Best.Manager.Ever" so you probably think his input has some value.

[a700hitter]

I'd be willing to concede 2005 as his "career year" had it not happened with Pittsburgh, i'm sorry, but the "Al/NL" and "Produced for a contender" argument are very heavy in my book. I'll admit it is debateable though.

I am agreeing with you again. You are really getting smart. Soon posters will be calling you old-timer.

 

We don't know how much of Bay's production in Pittsburgh came when his team was down by a bunch of runs and out of the game. Plus, it is just a much lower pressure environment.

[Dipre]

I am agreeing with you again. You are really getting smart. Soon posters will be calling you old-timer.

 

We don't know how much of Bay's production in Pittsburgh came when his team was down by a bunch of runs and out of the game. Plus, it is just a much lower pressure environment.

 

But that isn't even the core of the argument anyway, Doiji's just twisting around (typical) to suit his weak-assed opinion.

 

Jason Bay is not a cleanup hitter.

 

Simple as that.

[das11209]

But that isn't even the core of the argument anyway, Doiji's just twisting around (typical) to suit his weak-assed opinion.

 

Jason Bay is not a cleanup hitter.

 

Simple as that.

 

I guess in a long season we have come around and agreed on lot of points.

 

Problem is it will be hard to get a real clean-up hitter. They don't grow on trees - and we have no one in our farm ( not Lars for sure).

[Dipre]

I guess in a long season we have come around and agreed on lot of points.

 

Problem is it will be hard to get a real clean-up hitter. They don't grow on trees - and we have no one in our farm ( not Lars for sure).

 

The point is not whether they grow in trees or (This is not meant to be an insulting or snarky remark, just trying to point something out) but the fact that almost every contending team, including most of the teams who made the playoffs have a true threat on their lineup and we don't.

[a700hitter]

But that isn't even the core of the argument anyway, Doiji's just twisting around (typical) to suit his weak-assed opinion.

 

Jason Bay is not a cleanup hitter.

 

Simple as that.

When Doji has a weak argument, which is just about all the time, he tries to take you off on tangents to argue those instead of the main point. When he agrees with me, I usually rethink my position.

[das11209]

The point is not whether they grow in trees or (This is not meant to be an insulting or snarky remark' date=' just trying to point something out) but the fact that almost every contending team, including most of the teams who made the playoffs have a true threat on their lineup and we don't.[/quote']

 

I am with you - how do we get one next year? Seems pretty hard to me.

 

First of all - will Theo make it a priority? Since 2004 - he seemed to think that small-ball/pitching/defense is the way to go and he is willing to sacrifice power for that. Just looked to me that way.

[Dipre]

When Doji has a weak argument' date=' which is just about all the time, he tries to take you off on tangents to argue those instead of the main point. When he agrees with me, I usually rethink my position.[/quote']

 

Lol.

[Dipre]

I am with you - how do we get one next year? Seems pretty hard to me.

 

First of all - will Theo make it a priority? Since 2004 - he seemed to think that small-ball/pitching/defense is the way to go and he is willing to sacrifice power for that. Just looked to me that way.

 

We would have one if not for the Manny debacle.

 

Now your argument is wrong, because remember he made a hell of a push for Adrian Gonzales during the deadline.

[Dojji]

You think .338 and .355 BABIP's are sustainable in the long run? LOL

 

He has a high LD% and he put up those BABIP numbers for three full consecutive seasons before he got hurt. Remember, before his knee injury he was actually close to being a 5 tool player and he still has above average speed. That helps BABIP a lot.

 

i didn't "choose" not to report BABIP, it doesn't help your argument, it helps mine, because Bay put up all these numbers with a right-around league-average BABIP.

 

Interesting point. Bay certainly did get luckier in 2005 than he did this year. However, I do wish to remind you that Jason Bay has hit 30 or more HR's every full year in the majors except his rookie year, and his injury-stunted 2007. He also maintains a well above average OBP and OPS, even for a left fielder, which is one of the reasons I was challenging you specifically on Howard, because he doesn't.

 

Statistically the difference between Bay and a "true" power hitter is trivial. If there's a difference, it's purely in intangibles and the validity of an intangibles argument almost invariably boils down to how much posters like a certain player rather than a true evluation of things players can control on the field. That's why I was deriding the "scariness factor."

 

I'd be willing to concede 2005 as his "career year" had it not happened with Pittsburgh, i'm sorry, but the "Al/NL" and "Produced for a contender" argument are very heavy in my book. I'll admit it is debateable though.

 

Fine. I see the logic here. I just disagree with it. I believe you laud, or blame, a player for things under his control. His league he couldn't control, and it's worth bearing in mind that the Pirates were a non-contender despite his best efforts rather than because of them.