Official Red Sox offseason thread

[BSN07]

Bedard wouldn't get more from the Sox then Penny got. The whole point is to get them on the cheap. 8M guaranteed +7M in incentives is not cheap.

 

Bedard is probably looking at 5-7M base salary, with 1-3 M in incentives. And the chance to rebuild his value in Boston.

 

1B/SP+ package for Fielder is a good place to start. The cost could however go up depending on who gets involved.

[Dojji]

I'm not sure who else would. Most of the contenders and near contenders have all star caliber first basemen of their own. The exception is the Giants and I'm not sure they want to get into a bidding war with a system as deep as Boston's. They'll probably just sign Adam LaRoche anyway.

[BSN07]

I'm not sure who else would. Most of the contenders and near contenders have all star caliber first basemen of their own. The exception is the Giants and I'm not sure they want to get into a bidding war with a system as deep as Boston's. They'll probably just sign Adam LaRoche anyway.

 

You raise a valid point. What about LAA? Fielder>Morales:dunno:

[Dojji]

yes but Morales is no slouch and they need to improve more in other areas. Especially if they lose Lackey.

 

In fairness, we have an all star caliber 1B ourselves. It just happens he's ALSO a star caliber 3B, and those have been harder to find over the last several years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bedard wouldn't get more from the Sox then Penny got. The whole point is to get them on the cheap. 8M guaranteed +7M in incentives is not cheap.

 

Bedard is probably looking at 5-7M base salary, with 1-3 M in incentives. And the chance to rebuild his value in Boston.

 

1B/SP+ package for Fielder is a good place to start. The cost could however go up depending on who gets involved.

 

Fielder is gonna cost a TON. Young, still controlled for a few more yrs, and an MVP candidate. With Buchholz likely securing a spot in the rotation for 2010, your leverage has just dropped significantly, assuming you dont consider him a possibility for trade.

[example1]

Fielder is gonna cost a TON. Young' date=' still controlled for a few more yrs, and an MVP candidate. With Buchholz likely securing a spot in the rotation for 2010, your leverage has just dropped significantly, assuming you dont consider him a possibility for trade.[/quote']

 

Nope. He signed a 2 year $18m extension before this season, avoiding arbitration through next season. He'll make $10.5m next year and isn't signed after that. I don't know if that means he'll be a FA or if he'll have a final year of arb. In either case, this is his 4th full season, so he's not particularly cost controlled.

 

What do you think he'll cost? He has a 5.8 WARP this year. That's pretty good, but it isn't good enough for top 30 in baseball. Last year he put up a 2.9 and a 3.8 the season before that. You think the Sox are going to be fooled into thinking he's worth more than he is? I don't.

 

How hard is it to make up for 12 wins above replacement (the next two years of his contract) by dealing prospects who have 6 years of cost controlled value left? Well, one player who gives you 6 years of 2 WARP would come close. 3 players who give you 1.5 WARP a year for 6 years gives you 27 WARP.

 

How much would it take to get the Brewers to trade 12 WARP for 27 WARP, when that 27 costs 1/9th the value, covers 3 positions and will be around for three times longer?

 

Sorry man, I just don't think it is going to cost them as much as you predict. Prospects who are likely to be MLB regulars are extremely valuable. Kalish, Anderson and Bowden all fill that role and might be too much.

[BSN07]

Nope. He signed a 2 year $18m extension before this season, avoiding arbitration through next season. He'll make $10.5m next year and isn't signed after that. I don't know if that means he'll be a FA or if he'll have a final year of arb. In either case, this is his 4th full season, so he's not particularly cost controlled.

 

What do you think he'll cost? He has a 5.8 WARP this year. That's pretty good, but it isn't good enough for top 30 in baseball. Last year he put up a 2.9 and a 3.8 the season before that. You think the Sox are going to be fooled into thinking he's worth more than he is? I don't.

 

How hard is it to make up for 12 wins above replacement (the next two years of his contract) by dealing prospects who have 6 years of cost controlled value left? Well, one player who gives you 6 years of 2 WARP would come close. 3 players who give you 1.5 WARP a year for 6 years gives you 27 WARP.

 

How much would it take to get the Brewers to trade 12 WARP for 27 WARP, when that 27 costs 1/9th the value, covers 3 positions and will be around for three times longer?

 

Sorry man, I just don't think it is going to cost them as much as you predict. Prospects who are likely to be MLB regulars are extremely valuable. Kalish, Anderson and Bowden all fill that role and might be too much.

 

Example, always the voice of reason

 

The only competition I see is the Giants. If they offer up Cain or Bumgarner, the Sox might have to overpay. I could see a Cain for Fielder deal straight up possibly. And he is far better at this point then any of the SP Boston would likely offer, outside of maybe Dice-K.

 

Maybe the Sox part with Kelly, and do a Kelly/Anderson/Bowden+OF and go for Hardy and Fielder:dunno:

[example1]

Example, always the voice of reason

 

The only competition I see is the Giants. If they offer up Cain or Bumgarner, the Sox might have to overpay. I could see a Cain for Fielder deal straight up possibly. And he is far better at this point then any of the SP Boston would likely offer, outside of maybe Dice-K.

 

Maybe the Sox part with Kelly, and do a Kelly/Anderson/Bowden+OF and go for Hardy and Fielder:dunno:

 

I don't see the Giants dealing Cain. If the Giants want to be competetive they won't trade Cain for Fielder. They're about as valuable as one another and they will still need pitching if they hope to win. Perhaps Sanchez, but not Cain.

 

Kelly anderson Bowden + is way too much for Fielder and Hardy. Hardy simply isn't that good. His power is nice but his low-OBP and inconsistency is concerning. The Red Sox are not enticed by middle-of-the-road semi-stars from other teams. I just don't see them doing much to get Hardy. His power needs to be weighed against his inability to get on base more than Jason Varitek.

[Cocos Disciples]

The Cain-Fielder was discussed for a while last year, but I don't see it. The Giants need offense, but is dealing one of the best pitchers in the game really a good idea?

[BoSox21]

The Giants are gonna ride on the back of the Lincecum-Cain combo for years to come, those two aren't going anywhere

[BSN07]

I don't see it either, but I read it so figured it was worth mentioning.

[Dojji]

I don't see the Giants dealing Cain. If the Giants want to be competetive they won't trade Cain for Fielder. They're about as valuable as one another and they will still need pitching if they hope to win. Perhaps Sanchez, but not Cain.

 

Kelly anderson Bowden + is way too much for Fielder and Hardy. Hardy simply isn't that good. His power is nice but his low-OBP and inconsistency is concerning. The Red Sox are not enticed by middle-of-the-road semi-stars from other teams. I just don't see them doing much to get Hardy. His power needs to be weighed against his inability to get on base more than Jason Varitek.

 

I agree with that. The most I'd offer for Hardy is Delcarmen.

 

That said, Hardy is an upgrade over what we have now even if he DOESN'T bounce back, since he's an above average defender. So Hardy is still a guy I go after even if he isn't the quintessential perfect Boston hitter.

[BSN07]

There's a possibility the Marlins will try to deal Josh Johnson this winter even though he won't be a free agent until after 2011. Johnson is not anticipated to take a hometown discount to stay in Florida.

 

Let the mega ubber blockbuster trade talks begin lol

 

 

Johnson and Hanley + a LF, and call it an off season

[Dojji]

NL pitcher for a large haul of prospects and probably a large contract extension? Sure, nothing can go wrong there.

 

But seriously, I'd make the deal and take the risk for a talent like Johnson. One thing to bear in mind though, is that Johnson while his young career is off to a nice start, has really only had the one great year, and he's been hurt a few times already. It's not a dealbreaker but it's something to track.

[bsox0407]

i would love to have the sox Johnson and hanley i would love for the sox to sign Victor Martinez to a long term contract and Bay. maybe give beckett an extension so he wont hit free agency after next season.

 

i assume lowell will call it quits and also wake but in both i hope not. and Tek may but i kinda hope not. if he does we should hire him as a bullpen coach so he can work with the pitchers before they come in. I know tek hits like s*** but hes is better than kottaras and his defense is still good(not shown in the past few games) but he will hit when it matters.

[Cocos Disciples]

i would love to have the sox Johnson and hanley i would love for the sox to sign Victor Martinez to a long term contract and Bay. maybe give beckett an extension so he wont hit free agency after next season.

 

That's a long shopping list. Obviously I'd love for them to get all of those guys, but that's going to cost a lot of coin, and if Theo is serious about making a push for Joe Mauer, it might not be realistic.

 

i assume lowell will call it quits and also wake but in both i hope not. and Tek may but i kinda hope not. if he does we should hire him as a bullpen coach so he can work with the pitchers before they come in. I know tek hits like s*** but hes is better than kottaras and his defense is still good(not shown in the past few games) but he will hit when it matters.

 

Are you talking about this off-season? The only one that might retire IMO is Wakefield. Lowell still has a year left on his deal, and Varitek can exercise his 2010 option for $3M.

[BSN07]

NL pitcher for a large haul of prospects and probably a large contract extension? Sure' date=' nothing can go wrong there.[/b']

 

But seriously, I'd make the deal and take the risk for a talent like Johnson. One thing to bear in mind though, is that Johnson while his young career is off to a nice start, has really only had the one great year, and he's been hurt a few times already. It's not a dealbreaker but it's something to track.

 

Josh Beckett says "up yours"...

 

 

Johnson is upper echelon IMO. He seems to have fully recovered from TJ. And he is hitting his prime. Me personally, I see Johnson as Beckett part II. Burnett at worst(which still isn't bad - his last 1.5 months lol).

[BSN07]

That's a long shopping list. Obviously I'd love for them to get all of those guys, but that's going to cost a lot of coin, and if Theo is serious about making a push for Joe Mauer, it might not be realistic.

 

 

 

Are you talking about this off-season? The only one that might retire IMO is Wakefield. Lowell still has a year left on his deal, and Varitek can exercise his 2010 option for $3M.

.

 

 

There is going to be many different paths they could take this off season. It will depend on a number of other teams as well,

 

Florida possibilities- Johnson and/or Hanley

 

Milwaukee possibilities- Hardy and/or Fielder

 

Seattle- Felix

 

SD- Adrian

 

Minnesota- Mauer( we won't know until November, but if talks fall through for an extension Mauer could possibly be available).

 

And then there is Beckett. If one of the pitchers mentioned ^ is acquired do the sox pony up the $ for him or let him walk and collect the picks. Maybe even possibly trade him.

 

Beckett for Mauer?

[TheKilo]

NL pitcher for a large haul of prospects and probably a large contract extension? Sure, nothing can go wrong there.

 

But seriously, I'd make the deal and take the risk for a talent like Johnson. One thing to bear in mind though, is that Johnson while his young career is off to a nice start, has really only had the one great year, and he's been hurt a few times already. It's not a dealbreaker but it's something to track.

 

Josh Beckett says hi

[Dipre]

Josh Beckett says hi

 

Exception to the rule, but i guess Johnsonn could be as well.

[TheKilo]

Exception to the rule' date=' but i guess Johnsonn could be as well.[/quote']

 

I wouldn't do it (I'd rather just sign a guy like Lackey) but there is precedent for the FO pulling off a move like this.

[Dipre]

I wouldn't do it (I'd rather just sign a guy like Lackey) but there is precedent for the FO pulling off a move like this.

 

Just get Hanley. He's what we really need.

[Dojji]

Hardy and Bedard. We're one of the best at keeping pitchers healthy, Bedard, a proven AL East top of the rotation starter filling out this rotation would be incredible.

[TheKilo]

Bedard can't stay healthy. Pass.

[Dojji]

We're one of the best teams in the league at keeping a pitcher healthy. And we have the depth to handle it if he can't stay healthy.

 

I'd give him a look.

[BoSox21]

It really all depends how much $$$ they'd have to invest in Bedard and the contingency plans they put in place if he goes down. But I agree, he can be effective and if there's one organization that could keep him healthy, it's the Sox

[example1]

A reclaimation project I could see the Sox inquiring about would be Rich Harden. He's injury prone, but who wouldn't rather have him on the mound than Paul Byrd? He's going to be 28 and still had 171 K in 141 IP--a pretty impressive K rate. In his 212 IP with the Cubs over the past two seasons he's got a 3.31 ERA. He could be a nice pick up for a team that can keep his innings down.

[a700hitter]

A reclaimation project I could see the Sox inquiring about would be Rich Harden. He's injury prone' date=' but who wouldn't rather have him on the mound than Paul Byrd? He's going to be 28 and still had 171 K in 141 IP--a pretty impressive K rate. In his 212 IP with the Cubs over the past two seasons he's got a 3.31 ERA. He could be a nice pick up for a team that can keep his innings down.[/quote']

These things very rarely work out. The few times that they do work out are when a previously reliable pitcher hits a rough patch of injuries but is able to work himself back. It never works out with a chronically injured pitcher like Harden. Has he managed to stay off the DL for even one year?

[BSN07]

A reclaimation project I could see the Sox inquiring about would be Rich Harden. He's injury prone' date=' but who wouldn't rather have him on the mound than Paul Byrd? He's going to be 28 and still had 171 K in 141 IP--a pretty impressive K rate. In his 212 IP with the Cubs over the past two seasons he's got a 3.31 ERA. He could be a nice pick up for a team that can keep his innings down.[/quote']

 

He may be a bit more expensive then Bedard but I think he's worth a shot. Harden as the #5 would be nice:D

 

He's going to want a multi year deal. I'd go as high as 2 years with a vesting option type of deal. He makes 7M this year, and I can't see him signing for much less. And given some of the recent pitching contracts there is probably someone to stupidly over pay for him( see: Mets vs Perez). I could see the Sox offering something like 2 years 15-18M with an option for like 12M.

 

But who knows I may be way off, maybe he's due to take a big pay cut. Or maybe he will get a Burnett type deal:dunno:

[ORS]

Cut bait with Tranny Delcarmen.

 

You read that right. Might have boys equipment, but pitches like a woman.