Official Red Sox offseason thread

[Dipre]

I understand that. My point is that none of these teams are jumping to a deal where Buchholz is the centerpiece. My point is that Buchholz might not be as good as many of these people think and that the other GM's don't see Buchholz in the same light as many people here do. In addition, I believe that Buchholz not being traded is more because of the other GM's not being willing to trade a star player for him (in a package deal) rather than being because the Red Sox see Buchholz as indispenable or irreplaceable (as Dojji seems to put it).

 

Jumping off of that, I'll say that if any of those GM's make Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, King Felix or somewhat of that caliber in a deal involving Buchholz, that the Sox front office (as well as most of us here) would jizz themselves at trading Buchholz (depending on what the other pieces are) to get a player like Gonzo, Ramierz or Felix.

 

So why was Toronto asking specifically for Bucholz in any deal that might have involved Roy Halladay?

 

Clay Bucholz is a coveted pitcher throughout the league for his potential.

 

Stop it.

[ORS]

Wow' date=' you have no idea ...[/quote']

You could have stopped right here. This blanket statement describes all of Dojjiland.

[Dojji]

Anyway' date=' I think the FO still could have handled it better. After they walked away from the table a statement like the following would have been helpful (if it is what happened): "We entered negotiations with the intent of getting a deal done today. We were informed that in order to strike a deal today it required an exorbidant offer. We can only assume this means our best and final offer would be shopped to other teams (read Yankees). Our best and final offer remains on the table."[/quote']

 

Negotiations by media have their place, but it's a small place. I really don't think saying that would have accomplished anything. Everything of value that could be said by that statement is implicit in any negotiation, ongoing or stalled.

 

For all we know the gist of the above was communicated in a phone call directly between Theo and Boras after the meeting. It's no one's obligation to brief us on what was said, unless some media guy gets hold of a leak.

 

I really think Teixeira's fate was sealed before they entered that room. JMHO, but the "go down and visit Boras and his client" gambit has generally been employed by this team when they're ready to call Boras' bluff and get something done if it's going to be done at all. If you're not getting Teixeira then, you're not getting Teixeira.

 

Remember the Matsuzaka negotiations. If Daisuke doesn't get on that plane he goes back to Japan with not a little humiliation. So he got on the plane.

 

It was pretty clear to me that when Theo and Henry went to Boras, the offer they were putting on the table was the most generous one they were willing to countenance. Take it or leave it. They left it, and with a lot left to do over the offseason so did Theo and company.

[example1]

I understand that. My point is that none of these teams are jumping to a deal where Buchholz is the centerpiece. My point is that Buchholz might not be as good as many of these people think and that the other GM's don't see Buchholz in the same light as many people here do. In addition, I believe that Buchholz not being traded is more because of the other GM's not being willing to trade a star player for him (in a package deal) rather than being because the Red Sox see Buchholz as indispenable or irreplaceable (as Dojji seems to put it).

 

Jumping off of that, I'll say that if any of those GM's make Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, King Felix or somewhat of that caliber in a deal involving Buchholz, that the Sox front office (as well as most of us here) would jizz themselves at trading Buchholz (depending on what the other pieces are) to get a player like Gonzo, Ramierz or Felix.

 

You are vastly undervaluing Buchholz's value. He's got tremendous stuff. I understand other teams not treating him as if he is the finished product, but once he is nobody would trade him. His FB is roughly as good as Lester's, which is very, very good. He's got an elite changeup and an above average curveball and slider. He's got a frame that he's still building, a great and repeatable motion, and he's been handled very carefully by an organization that knows what it's doing.

 

His value is super high because his potential is legitimate.

[ORS]

ORS: If I were San Deigo I would probably start by asking for Buchholz. When I heard from the Sox that he isn't available' date=' I would start by demanding (not asking) that Kelly be included in any deal. I would ask for Kelly, Bowden, either Doubront or Stolmy, Reddick or Kalish (whichever I thought was better... probably Reddick), and Rizzo or Lars Anderson. That seems like a really nice haul and a very cheap way to rebuild my club with good proven players. (Kelly, Bowden, Stolmy, Reddick and Rizzo?). I don't think it would hurt the Sox tremendously over the longrun. By the time Reddick's spot becomes important they could have Kalish or Lin or Westmoreland ready to go (in, say, 2-3 years). Kelly would be hard to lose but I think dealing him would be inevitable. Rizzo could go on to do great things, but Boston--unlike SD--cannot afford to let a major power position learn on the job. Stolmy and Bowden can both develop into very nice MLB pitchers, Bowden ready to start next season. They would get Reddick and Bowden immediately, Kelly and Rizzo in the next two years or so, and Stolmy as a promising prospect to have in the system. Again, that's a huge haul for a team that has a s***** farm system.[/quote']

I'd demand Buchholz, Anderson, and Kelly. And I wouldn't take less.

[Dojji]

You could have stopped right here. This blanket statement describes all of Dojjiland.

 

Becanse no one's seen a post like this in the last 5 econds.

 

What exactly is the point of posts like this? Beyond the obvious rules violation everyone looks the other way on I mean.

[example1]

Negotiations by media have their place, but it's a small place. I really don't think saying that would have accomplished anything. Everything of value that could be said by that statement is implicit in any negotiation, ongoing or stalled.

 

For all we know the gist of the above was communicated in a phone call directly between Theo and Boras after the meeting. It's no one's obligation to brief us on what was said, unless some media guy gets hold of a leak.

 

I really think Teixeira's fate was sealed before they entered that room. JMHO, but the "go down and visit Boras and his client" gambit has generally been employed by this team when they're ready to call Boras' bluff and get something done if it's going to be done at all. If you're not getting Teixeira then, you're not getting Teixeira.

 

Remember the Matsuzaka negotiations. If Daisuke doesn't get on that plane he goes back to Japan with not a little humiliation. So he got on the plane.

 

It was pretty clear to me that when Theo and Henry went to Boras, the offer they were putting on the table was the most generous one they were willing to countenance. Take it or leave it. They left it, and with a lot left to do over the offseason so did Theo and company.

 

I also think they wanted to talk individually with Teixeira and sell him on the benefits of being a Red Sox. My guess is they didn't know that he had a tiny hard-on for the Yankees and that he wasn't impressed by their meeting.

 

That's got to be an ego shock, but if someone doesn't like blondes they don't like blondes. Same with the Red Sox. If Teix wants to be a Yankee no matter what, he's unlikely to be imrpessed by Fenway's history. The face to face presentation worked with Schilling, but didn't work with Tex. C'est la vie.

[Dojji]

You are vastly undervaluing Buchholz's value. He's got tremendous stuff. I understand other teams not treating him as if he is the finished product, but once he is nobody would trade him. His FB is roughly as good as Lester's, which is very, very good. He's got an elite changeup and an above average curveball and slider. He's got a frame that he's still building, a great and repeatable motion, and he's been handled very carefully by an organization that knows what it's doing.

 

His value is super high because his potential is legitimate.

 

This. He's within about half a step of really getting it, and we've already got an idea of what he's gonna be when he tops out. His fastball has vastly improved from the instrument I was worried about a couple years ago, and is now a plus pitch in its own right. All he needs is some reps and a bit of refinement and this guy is going to be incredible

 

Within another 2 years the question of whether you trade Felix Hernandez for Clay Buchholz may well be a very open one. I was a doubter at first, but he's totally won me over

[ORS]

Becanse no one's seen a post like this in the last 5 econds.

 

What exactly is the point of posts like this? Beyond the obvious rules violation everyone looks the other way on I mean.

What is the point? It's my opinion. That's the point.

 

I'm informing someone that you need not bother with the specifics when it comes to reading a Dojji post. See the name Dojji, assume a deficiency of perspective as it pertains to consideration of all parties interests in consumating a deal, assume a deficiency of analysis as it pertains to consideration of player production and worth, etc, etc.

 

This is only my opinion. However, the frequency of similar posts by other members should tell you something about your thought process, or lack thereof.

[Dojji]

You're entitled to your opinion, ORS, but your rights end where my virtual nose begins.

 

If you can't argue my posts without blatant ad homenim, then you can't argue my posts at all.

[Keeper]

Within another 2 years the question of whether you trade Felix Hernandez for Clay Buchholz may well be a very open one.

 

In a word: no.

[Dojji]

In a word: no.

 

Don't be so sure. Felix has better velocity, but Buchholz has a better arsenal.

 

I think if Clay reaches his potential it will be very close. It'll come down to who has better command and refinement over a career. We all know Felix's is already very good, if Clay can match it all bets are off.

[Keeper]

Too many "if's" in there to sell me on Buchholz over Felix. They're about the same age, and one of them is light years ahead of the other in terms of development and just about everything else.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Too many "if's" in there to sell me on Buchholz over Felix. They're about the same age' date=' and one of them is light years ahead of the other in terms of development and just about everything else.[/quote']

 

Buchholz started late. Felix has accomplished far more in his career to this point but in the next 2-3 years it may change. Both have great stuff and I'm not sure how big the upgrade would be. How many more wins does Felix give us over the course of a season? I'd love to get Felix to replace Beckett in the end but somehow keep Buchholz in the process.

[example1]

I'd demand Buchholz' date=' Anderson, and Kelly. And I wouldn't take less.[/quote']

 

Really? I don't know how you could turn down a deal that outweighs Buchholz in overall value.

 

If I didn't get Buchholz, but instead got two pitchers like Bowden + Stolmy, AND added in my choice of Reddick and Kalish to the mix, I wouldn't be deterred. It seems stubborn to get so hung up on one player, especially when Buchholz's value will likely outweight Gonzalez's for the duration of AG's contract in terms of WARP, and certainly in terms of WARP/$$. The Sox know that, the Padres know that. They really can't in good conscience trade Buchholz as anything less than the centerpiece of the deal.

 

Perhaps you're right and San Diego will be stubborn and demand way more than AG is worth. I just think the Sox can pay way more than he is worth without giving up Buchholz.

[example1]

Too many "if's" in there to sell me on Buchholz over Felix. They're about the same age' date=' and one of them is light years ahead of the other in terms of development and just about everything else.[/quote']

 

If Felix were signed by the Red Sox when he was 18 he would have come up in the AL East, he wouldn't have seen the majors until a year ago, and he probably would have struggled more than he did. HWSNBN is a tremendous pitcher, one of the best in the game. Buchholz is a notch below that and at a crossroads: he could be in HWSNBN's class, he could be a #2 starter. In either case, his stuff is good enough to be a very good MLB pitcher for years, and he's CHEAP compared to HWSNBN, who is in arb and will be a FA in two seasons, at which time he will command 20m.

 

The other issue is that by acquiring HWSNBN you may prevent other teams from getting him as a FA. I don't think the Sox want him out there as a FA, where a team could sign him to a 10 year deal quite reasonably. They would rather that the Mariners have Buchholz for 4-5 more seasons and then pay HWSNBN now, when he's probably open to an (expensive) contract extension.

[ORS]

Really? I don't know how you could turn down a deal that outweighs Buchholz in overall value.

 

If I didn't get Buchholz, but instead got two pitchers like Bowden + Stolmy, AND added in my choice of Reddick and Kalish to the mix, I wouldn't be deterred. It seems stubborn to get so hung up on one player, especially when Buchholz's value will likely outweight Gonzalez's for the duration of AG's contract in terms of WARP, and certainly in terms of WARP/$$. The Sox know that, the Padres know that. They really can't in good conscience trade Buchholz as anything less than the centerpiece of the deal.

 

Perhaps you're right and San Diego will be stubborn and demand way more than AG is worth. I just think the Sox can pay way more than he is worth without giving up Buchholz.

The issue with the other packages is there's less surety that you are getting someone who will actually contribute. Buchholz is at the point where the last piece of the puzzle is consistency, but since it hasn't come, I don't know how "likely" it is he eclipses Gonzalez in WARP who has. As far as $/W goes, for a team like the Sox who can afford to pay the extra coin for the extra win, which can determine the fate of seasons, I don't think they should blink when it comes to filling a spot of noticeable deficiency.

[ORS]

Too many "if's" in there to sell me on Buchholz over Felix. They're about the same age' date=' and one of them is light years ahead of the other in terms of development and just about everything else.[/quote']

Light years is a bit much. Clay's two offspeed offerings are in the same class as King's, ie "video game" stuff. That said, the difference in their fastballs is significant. Clay's is somewhat flat with good velocity. King's has excellent movement and velocity. This is where the difference lies. It's big enough to not call it slight, but it's quite some way from being "light years", IMO.

[example1]

The issue with the other packages is there's less surety that you are getting someone who will actually contribute. Buchholz is at the point where the last piece of the puzzle is consistency' date=' but since it hasn't come, I don't know how "likely" it is he eclipses Gonzalez in WARP who has. As far as $/W goes, for a team like the Sox who can afford to pay the extra coin for the extra win, which can determine the fate of seasons, I don't think they should blink when it comes to filling a spot of noticeable deficiency.[/quote']

 

I think Bowden and Reddick would contribute in the first season. Kelly and Anderson would probably contribute in a few years. I agree that there isn't a huge immediate return with that package, but if they want immediate return they probably shouldn't move Adrian Gonzalez in the first place.

 

I agree that the Sox shouldn't hesitate to fill a spot of noticeable deficiency. The question is whether giving up Buchholz in a deal like that would be subtraction by addition. I think they need his spot in the rotation to be solid or else any addition of a bat would be negated, especially with Beckett possibly leaving the year after.

 

However, combine trading Buchholz to SD with signing John Lackey as your #4 and we could be talking. Take away a rival's #1, add him to your staff, get a great hitter.

 

What do you think?

 

Light years is a bit much. Clay's two offspeed offerings are in the same class as King's' date=' ie "video game" stuff. That said, the difference in their fastballs is significant. Clay's is somewhat flat with good velocity. King's has excellent movement and velocity. This is where the difference lies. It's big enough to not call it slight, but it's quite some way from being "light years", IMO.[/quote']

 

Fangraphs has KF's velocity at 94.0 on the season. Buchholz was at 93.5. It has gone up the past 3 seasons (91.1, 92.6, 93.5). I agree that their FB is different (KF seems to have a very heavy fastball that is just hard to hit, Buchholz's seems straighter and easier to hit), but the velocity is pretty close.

[ORS]

I think Bowden and Reddick would contribute in the first season. Kelly and Anderson would probably contribute in a few years. I agree that there isn't a huge immediate return with that package' date=' but if they want immediate return they probably shouldn't move Adrian Gonzalez in the first place. [/quote']

Yes, Bowden and Reddick would "play". Contribute is another matter, even moreso with Kelly and Anderson because, as you stated, it's "probable". My post concerned surety of contribution. At this point, Buchholz is the only one of this group that has some level of surety.

 

However, combine trading Buchholz to SD with signing John Lackey as your #4 and we could be talking. Take away a rival's #1, add him to your staff, get a great hitter.

 

What do you think?

I'll address this later in an idea for a thread I have, but I don't plan on starting it until the season is officially over.

[example1]

Yes' date=' Bowden and Reddick would "play". Contribute is another matter, even moreso with Kelly and Anderson because, as you stated, it's "probable". My post concerned surety of contribution. At this point, Buchholz is the only one of this group that has some level of surety. [/quote']

 

I hear you. In my opinion it will be a judgement call about "surety" vs. "potential". At some point the potential and the probability can overweigh Buchholz's surety.

 

Buchholz had a 2.8 WARP in 91 IP. I expect at least this level of performance from him moving forward, I can reasonably hope it will be even better. Assuming 2.8 WARP in 91 IP I'll guess that a full season would put him around 5.6. Maybe more, mabe less, but that seems reasonable. That's roughly what Pedroia or Papelbon put up this year, less than 2009 Beckett or Lester, and that seems about right.

 

At 5.6 WARP each for 5 seasons we're looking at 28 WARP for very little cost. Adrian Gonzalez had an 8.9 WARP this year and is signed through 2011, 2 more seasons. That's maybe 18 more WARP, perhaps 20. A conservative estimate (for Clay's ability) hints that his contract is more valuable than Gonzalez's.

 

I don't think it will be hard to find a combination of players not including Buchholz who will produce 2 or 3 times as much combined during their 6 years of cost controlledness. At that point it is too big an offer for San Diego to turn down, even if the surety is low. If they're given some choice in which non-Buchholz players they want to have full control over, I can't see them turning it down. Whether the Sox want to go that far is another question...

 

 

I'll address this later in an idea for a thread I have, but I don't plan on starting it until the season is officially over.

 

I look forward to it. if the discussion above borders on it then feel free to just hold off responding until then.

[TheKilo]

But that isn't even the core of the argument anyway, Doiji's just twisting around (typical) to suit his weak-assed opinion.

 

Jason Bay is not a cleanup hitter.

 

Simple as that.

 

Really?

 

I like you man, but really?

 

On what Earth is a guy who hits 35 HRs and drives in 115 not a cleanup hitter?

[Dipre]

Really?

 

I like you man, but really?

 

On what Earth is a guy who hits 35 HRs and drives in 115 not a cleanup hitter?

 

Please read the rest of the thread.

[Dojji]

Really?

 

I like you man, but really?

 

On what Earth is a guy who hits 35 HRs and drives in 115 not a cleanup hitter?

 

*jaw drops*

 

Holy crap, I agree with Kilo.

[Dipre]

*jaw drops*

 

Holy crap, I agree with Kilo.

 

92 example1 and Dipre posts later.

 

Sure you do.

[TheKilo]

Please read the rest of the thread.

 

I just did.

 

What did you think about Bay being a cleanup hitter back in May? I bet you thought he was awesome then.

 

Look, I think Bay has his warts, but if you don't think he's a cleanup hitter, a middle of the order impact bat, then I just don't know what to tell you.

 

He's a 30/100 guy. Most teams would KILL to have a guy like Bay hitting 4th for them. It just so happens the Sox have a multitude of other excellent hitters hitting in their lineup as well.

 

And don't give me Bay's slash stats hitting fourth, Bay is who he is and he'd be a 30/100 .900+ OPS guy anywhere you put him in the lineup.

[Dipre]

I just did.

 

What did you think about Bay being a cleanup hitter back in May? I bet you thought he was awesome then.

 

Look, I think Bay has his warts, but if you don't think he's a cleanup hitter, a middle of the order impact bat, then I just don't know what to tell you.

 

He's a 30/100 guy. Most teams would KILL to have a guy like Bay hitting 4th for them. It just so happens the Sox have a multitude of other excellent hitters hitting in their lineup as well.

 

And don't give me Bay's slash stats hitting fourth, Bay is who he is and he'd be a 30/100 .900+ OPS guy anywhere you put him in the lineup.

 

You don't get it.

 

I love Bay and want him back.

 

However, let's make it simply.

 

In the hypothetical scenario that you had either Bay/Fielder or Bay/AGonzales coupled up on this team.

 

Who'd you hit 4th?

[TheKilo]

We're going to give our three best prospects to either Milwaukee or San Diego to bring in a LHH first baseman whose power will be suppressed in Fenway? If that's the Sox's plan they could have made something better happen last offseason (I know, dead horse).

 

You're comfortable giving up Buchholz/Anderson/Kelly+ for Gonzalez or Fielder? I'm not.

 

I'd rather go hard after John Lackey and re-sign Bay.

[Dipre]

We're going to give our three best prospects to either Milwaukee or San Diego to bring in a LHH first baseman whose power will be suppressed in Fenway? If that's the Sox's plan they could have made something better happen last offseason (I know, dead horse).

 

You're comfortable giving up Buchholz/Anderson/Kelly+ for Gonzalez or Fielder? I'm not.

 

I'd rather go hard after John Lackey and re-sign Bay.

 

Gonzales would be the exception to your rule.

 

He's already in a place that suppresses his power, and he's a pretty darn good 1B.

 

But let me tell you something, the FO has the need to make this deal for reasons that are extremely well-known to you.

[jacksonianmarch]

We're going to give our three best prospects to either Milwaukee or San Diego to bring in a LHH first baseman whose power will be suppressed in Fenway? If that's the Sox's plan they could have made something better happen last offseason (I know, dead horse).

 

You're comfortable giving up Buchholz/Anderson/Kelly+ for Gonzalez or Fielder? I'm not.

 

I'd rather go hard after John Lackey and re-sign Bay.

 

Do you go for Lackey and try to re-sign Beckett? Or are you cool with having a 3 headed monster of Beckett-Lester-Lackey and then letting Beckett walk after 2010