Sox sign Brad Penny and Josh Bard

[Dojji]

If he makes it through the season as a productive catcher for the Sox, which is the only way that option is relevant, he'll have earned that $3M and then some.

[a700hitter]

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view/2009_03_03_Not_smooth_sailing_for_Brad_Penny__J_D__Drew/

 

I think we will be seeing this type of news about Penny throughout the season. This is what you get when you sign damaged goods. Low risk high reward? ********. Low cost, small chance of success.

[jacksonianmarch]

Penny didnt get his shoulder cleaned out in the offseason. There were rumors that he needed surgery. Fatigue this early in the process can be completely normal though, so dont blow this out of proportion. That being said, it still isnt good for the sox. If Penny slips and starts the season on the DL, then Buchholz starts the yr in the rotation.

[example1]

Penny didnt get his shoulder cleaned out in the offseason. There were rumors that he needed surgery. Fatigue this early in the process can be completely normal though' date=' so dont blow this out of proportion. That being said, it still isnt good for the sox. If Penny slips and starts the season on the DL, then Buchholz starts the yr in the rotation.[/quote']

 

I'm not convinced that will be a bad thing, to be honest. Buchholz isn't a bad fallback, nor is Masterson.

[Keeper]

Masterson is an excellent fallback.

[Southie Sox]

like the Penny signing, ehh on the Bard pickup.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm not convinced that will be a bad thing' date=' to be honest. Buchholz isn't a bad fallback, nor is Masterson.[/quote']

 

I was actually listening to WEEI and Schilling was on, of course. He said that at the stage of ST that Penny was complaining of fatigue, you arent doing much at all. Take it for what its worth from Schill, but if thats the case, then Penny might be a complete lost cause if he cannot do a minimal amount of work without getting his shoulder fatigued.

[a700hitter]

The Sox will be fortunate if one of the players they signed is healthy and productive in 2009. So far it is looking like Saito. It is very possible that for the $12 -15 million that they spent that they will get a productive year from a middle inning reliever. Smart spending?

[BoSox21]

Smart spending?

 

It's also very possible that they will get something out of each guy. What's the point of grading these signings in spring training?

[BSN07]

It's also very possible that they will get something out of each guy. What's the point of grading these signings in spring training?

 

Because he's been bitching about these low risk/ high reward(coming off injury) players all off season. If he waits any longer, he runs the risk of them getting healthy and making his argument a moot point.

[BoSox21]

It's just dumb though. The absolute only way to judge these signings is at the end of the season. It's like all those stupid columns that pick winners and losers the day after the NFL draft.

[TheKilo]

Smoltz is gonna be so key to this team.

[Dojji]

The Sox will be fortunate if one of the players they signed is healthy and productive in 2009. So far it is looking like Saito. It is very possible that for the $12 -15 million that they spent that they will get a productive year from a middle inning reliever. Smart spending?

 

Poor use of logic there. Very poor use of the laws of probability. So because 1 in for are usually successful, and one seems successful now, the other 3 are gonna flop?

 

There is no room to judge Penny and Bard yet, and even less to judge Smoltz. Just because you've got a 25% chance on a sample size of 4 doesn't mean you can't have 2 hits, or they could all miss too

[a700hitter]

Because he's been bitching about these low risk/ high reward(coming off injury) players all off season. If he waits any longer' date=' he runs the risk of them getting healthy and making his argument a moot point.[/quote']Even if they all perform, calling these moves "low risk/high reward" is still a misnomer. They are low cost/ low probability of success. The low probability of success is the reason that the moves are low cost. If these moves had a high probability of success, they wouldn't be low cost. The "low risk/high reward" characterization of these moves is just positive spin from the FO.

[BoSox21]

it's a high probability of success in the sense that I think we'd all be pretty shocked if none or even one of these guys contributed fairly significantly to this team.

[a700hitter]

Poor use of logic there. Very poor use of the laws of probability. So because 1 in for are usually successful, and one seems successful now, the other 3 are gonna flop?

 

There is no room to judge Penny and Bard yet, and even less to judge Smoltz. Just because you've got a 25% chance on a sample size of 4 doesn't mean you can't have 2 hits, or they could all miss too

I'm not a mathematician, but if there is a 50% chance that Penny is productive and starts 30+games, a 40% chance that Smoltz is productive and starts 20 + games, a 75% chance that Baldelli has an injury-free productive year, and 60% chance that Saito remains healthy and productive, what is the mathematical probability that all 4 will be healthy and productive? I don't think it is very great. In addition, the Red Sox medical staff can't seem to identify injuries during medical exams-- witness Kotay's back.

[ORS]

Independent probabilities can be multiplied.

 

0.5 x 0.4 x 0.75 x 0.6 = 0.09 or 9%

 

What Dojji is correctly saying is that if Saito's 0.6 is realized (in accordance with your post), then the other probabilities don't drop to zero, which is essentially what you said.

[BoSox21]

Why is there a discussion about the mathematics of probability when no one knows what the f*** do base any of that probability on?

[ORS]

The numbers really don't matter, but Dojji's point about the application of probabilities is a good one. You can lump x number of indepedent probabilities together and come up with a 1/y chance of them happening. However, if 1 happens, it doesn't preclude the other x-1 from happening.

[jacksonianmarch]

it's a high probability of success in the sense that I think we'd all be pretty shocked if none or even one of these guys contributed fairly significantly to this team.

 

you think that the one yr, below market signings of injured pitchers have a high probability of success? Really?

[jacksonianmarch]

So lets say that you give each player a probability of helping your team. For example, just for shits and giggles

 

Smoltz has a 30% chance of positively impacting the sox in 2009

Penny has a 40% chance of positively impacting the sox in 2009

Saito has a 25% change of positively impacting the sox in 2009.

 

The chance that all of them will have a positive impact is

 

.3 * .4 * .25 = .03 or 3%

 

The chance that none of them will have a positive impact is

 

(1-.3) * (1-.4) * (1-.25) = 31.5%.

 

So while you have a 3% chance of all the players panning out, you have a 68.5% chance of at least one of them panning out.

[BoSox21]

you think that the one yr' date=' below market signings of injured pitchers have a high probability of success? Really?[/quote']

 

Well, what is your definition of success in this situation? if Brad Penny doesn't win the Cy Young and John Smoltz doesn't win WS MVP, did the signings fail?

 

I'm expecting about 15 wins and a 3.65 ERA from Penny/Smoltz. I'm expecting Saito to have a solid sub-3.00 ERA for at least half the season and I'm expecting Baldelli to be healthy as a backup outfielder hitting about .270 with 7-9 HRs.

 

Anyway, this is a stupid argument, just wait until the f***ing season plays out before judging the signings. Even if none of them see a baseball field in the regular season, they're still paying them all less than they did for Schilling to sit at home, Renteria to be a Tiger and Manny to be a Dodger

[CrespoBlows]

well, what is your definition of success in this situation? if Brad Penny doesn't win the Cy Young and John Smoltz doesn't win WS MVP, did the signings fail?

 

I'm expecting about 15 wins and a 3.65 ERA from Penny/Smoltz. I'm expecting Saito to have a solid sub-3.00 ERA for at least half the season and I'm expecting Baldelli to be healthy as a backup outfielder hitting about .270 with 7-9 HRs.

 

I think Jacko is pointing out that there is a high probability that Smoltz, and Penny don't contribute because of injury.

[BoSox21]

I'm just trying to point out the stupidity of trying to use math to figure the likelyhood of these guys doing anything

[rician blast]

Even if they all perform' date=' calling these moves "low risk/high reward" is still a misnomer. They are low cost/ low probability of success. The low probability of success is the reason that the moves are low cost. If these moves had a high probability of success, they wouldn't be low cost. The "low risk/high reward" characterization of these moves is just positive spin from the FO.[/quote']

 

 

I think this is a very fair way to look at the signings.

 

What may be debatable is the probability of success...it's pretty subjective. The FO may think they know something in terms of that probability, fans may see the probability of success at very different ends of the spectrum, but to be sure none of these guys are a sure thing.

 

I can't argue with 700's basic premise.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, what is your definition of success in this situation? if Brad Penny doesn't win the Cy Young and John Smoltz doesn't win WS MVP, did the signings fail?

 

I'm expecting about 15 wins and a 3.65 ERA from Penny/Smoltz. I'm expecting Saito to have a solid sub-3.00 ERA for at least half the season and I'm expecting Baldelli to be healthy as a backup outfielder hitting about .270 with 7-9 HRs.

 

Anyway, this is a stupid argument, just wait until the f***ing season plays out before judging the signings. Even if none of them see a baseball field in the regular season, they're still paying them all less than they did for Schilling to sit at home, Renteria to be a Tiger and Manny to be a Dodger

 

You are expecting a 3.65 ERA out of Penny and Smoltz combined? In their first seasons in the AL coming off shoulder injuries? Thats dumb

[Dipre]

What's dumb is trying to predict what they're gonna do in spring f***ing training, that's what's dumb.

 

And to be fair, you can't argue with a700's basic premise, yet while that is true his lack of optimism on the probablility of Baldelli/Smoltz/Penny being productive is simply unbelievable.

 

Of those 4, the only one i firmly believe is gonna flop big time is Penny, but gues what?

 

How the f*** would i know if it's MARCH?

[Gom]

 

How the f*** would i know if it's MARCH?

If the Dominicans went home, it must be early March.

[BoSox21]

You are expecting a 3.65 ERA out of Penny and Smoltz combined? In their first seasons in the AL coming off shoulder injuries? Thats dumb

 

I'll try to remember to quote this at the end of the season

[diony]

I'll try to remember to quote this at the end of the season

 

That's gonna make a really good signature

 

Are they even healthy?