Peavy

[mvp 78]

Park factors?

 

[table]Year|IP|Home ERA|Road ERA|Road v. Home Diff.

2002|97.2|2.56|6.23|+3.67

2003|194.2|3.57|4.59|+1.02

2004|166.1|2.21|2.33|+0.12

2005|203.0|2.81|2.98|+0.17

2006|202.1|3.75|4.57|+0.82

2007|223.1|2.51|2.57|+0.06

2008|173.2|1.74|4.28|+2.54[/table]

 

 

Peavy's success has always struck me as a product of his home park.

 

except that your numbers don't really show that. pitchers usually pitch better at home anyway and there are only 2 years above that have any red flags.

 

peavy is a great pitcher and would easily be better than either beckett or dice k (unless beckett can regain his 07 form).

 

however, is starting pitching really our biggest need? not at the moment. he's definitely more of a luxury item than anything else.

[TheKilo]

Career 3.80 ERA pitcher on the road, moving to the ALE?

 

Call me apprehensive.

[Dipre]

except that your numbers don't really show that. pitchers usually pitch better at home anyway and there are only 2 years above that have any red flags.

 

peavy is a great pitcher and would easily be better than either beckett or dice k (unless beckett can regain his 07 form).

 

however, is starting pitching really our biggest need? not at the moment. he's definitely more of a luxury item than anything else.

 

The point is you gotta take into account the fact that Petco Park is a pitcher's haven, so adjusting his home ERA would give you a better idea of how he would do in a new, more hitter oriented home park, as in Fenway Park.

[BSN07]

Peavy-Boston Possibility

By Tim Dierkes [December 18 at 9:17am CST]

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the possibility of Jake Peavy being traded to the Red Sox:

 

The Red Sox have "some" interest in Peavy, but as of a few days ago the teams had not entertained any substantive trade talks as Padres GM Kevin Towers knew that Boston was not on Peavy's wish list. But now that talks with Atlanta and the Cubs have broken down, Towers needs a new team to deal with and the 27-year-old Peavy, according to his agent, Barry Axelrod, probably would OK a deal to Boston. But if there's a Mark Teixeira splash, the Red Sox might not have the money to entertain it.

 

Padres CEO Sandy Alderson recently said the team is no longer actively pursuing a Peavy trade, but left the door open in case a team approaches them. While the Red Sox easily have the young pitching to get it done, they'd also have the leverage to shoot for a bargain in a trade with San Diego. Kevin Towers has historically been Theo Epstein's most frequent trade partner, but keep in mind that Peavy is in control

[BSN07]

Tex is obviously the priority.

 

But if they sign Tex and they can move say Lugo's contract or something to make some finacial room, then I don't see Peavy as being a bad #4 or #5 SP for this rotation. Especially if Theo and Towers come up with a reasonable deal for prospects. SD is getting nothing for value at this point, and that's after trying to involve 4 teams. If SD is desperate to move Peavy's contract it could work out well for the Sox.

 

Start with Bowden

 

Bowden/Lugo($)/Almanzar/Reddick

 

That's by far the best anyone has offered yet.

 

Maybe throw in another low level SP or something.

[TheKilo]

Who's the bench IF if Lugo is traded?

 

That's quite the haul for the Pads.

[BSN07]

There's plenty of bech guys out in the FA market.

 

Second basemen

Willie Bloomquist (31)

Chris Burke (29)

Craig Counsell (38)

Ray Durham (37)

Damion Easley (39)

David Eckstein (34)

Mark Grudzielanek (39) - Type B, offered arb

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)

Orlando Hudson (31) - Type A, offered arb

Tadahito Iguchi (34)

Jeff Kent (41) - Type B, not offered arb

Ramon Martinez (36)

Aaron Miles (32)

Pablo Ozuna (34)

Luis Rivas (29)

 

Shortstops

)

Orlando Cabrera (34) - Type A, offered arb

Alex Cintron (30)

Alex Cora (33)

Craig Counsell (38)

David Eckstein (34)

Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Chris Gomez (38)

Jerry Hairston Jr. (33)

Aaron Miles (32)

Tomohiro Nioka (33)

Luis Rivas (29)

Juan Uribe (30) - Type B, not offered arb

Omar Vizquel (42)

 

Third basemen

Rich Aurilia (37)

Willie Bloomquist (31)

Aaron Boone (36)

Craig Counsell (38)

Joe Crede (31)

Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Ramon Martinez (36)

Pablo Ozuna (34)

Juan Uribe (30) - Type B, not offered arb

Ty Wigginton (31

 

 

There some viable options for the bench.

 

 

I know that be a haul for SD. But whats great is it's a good deal for them, and for the Sox. SD gets the value they want, while the red Sox move a couple valuable farm pieces, it doesn't hurt them too bad at the ML level.

 

I mean those names aren't set in stone, but it's a good starting area to go from.

[BoSox21]

they aren't getting rid of Lugo unless they take on some other team's bad contract

 

besides, I like the idea of Lugo as the super-sub anyway, regardless of his contract

[BSN07]

Well I threw it out there because SD is in need of a SS. And the Sox would have to move some salary to accomodate a Peavy trade. So and 1+1 thing.

[BoSox21]

They won't trade for Peavy cause there isn't a dire need for another front-line starter

[BSN07]

They won't trade for Peavy cause there isn't a dire need for another front-line starter

 

Ya I agree with you. But I think if Theo thought he was getting a deal, he would consider it. Alot of non baesball issues might play this thing out. Lets do a couple " what ifs"(normally I try to stick clear of such things, but given the current lack of news, I'll make a change).

 

SD to give a "deal" or "discount" would have to be desperate. Stemming from the economy, SD's owner's divorce, somthing of this nature.

 

Knowing this, in times of crisis(I use crisis, knowing full well this isn't a life or death dilehma) Most people go with what they know. And Theo and Towers know each other well. There wouldn't need to be the normal 2 step GM's normally play with each other when discussing a possible trade. No, they could get right down to buisness.

 

Towers should roughly know what he can get from Theo. I don't think he will ask for the Moon. And considering what he has been getting offered, if he is selective and not too greedy, he could come away with a nice deal for his ball club.

 

I also think Farrell would have to help him change his game a bit. Use his off speed stuff better. Beckett did it in 2007, last year he got a little FB happy at times. After the Post Season he had just come off who could blame him LOL But it showed you have be able to change it up. Power pitching is alot more useful in 40-50 degree weather, when your hands shatter when the bat hits the ball. Then it is when it's 90 and sunny.

 

I honestly think Bowden could be the center piece of a deal. Nothing close to him has been offered otherwise. I'm sure he will start a Buchholz, but remember, this is all beginning with Theo thinking he is getting a deal. And if Buchholz is asked for I don't believe Theo will consider it a deal(unless its just Buchholz+1, but that's another post).

 

Bowden+2 would seem to me as Towers believeing he is getting enough back, while Theo believe's it to be a "deal" so to speak, or discount.

 

 

What does everyone else think would be a good offer?

 

I still believe Bowden/Alamanzar+OF prospects is a solid start, while not comprimising the future of the team as well.

 

 

Beckett

Dicke-K

Lester

Wake(I only put Wake here to break up the hard throwing styles of Peavy and Lester)

Peavy

 

That's a solid rotation with 4/5 under 30 years of age.

 

This also leaves Buchholz to be groomed more in AAA.

 

$ aside, because no pitcher is worth the kind of money some get payed. Peavy is alot better option as the teams #4 or #5 SP. If he give 6IP with 4-4.75 ERA, I'll take that and run with it.

[diony]

Beckett

Dicke-K

Lester

Wake(I only put Wake here to break up the hard throwing styles of Peavy and Lester)

Peavy

 

That's a solid rotation with 4/5 under 30 years of age.

 

This also leaves Buchholz to be groomed more in AAA.

 

$ aside, because no pitcher is worth the kind of money some get payed. Peavy is alot better option as the teams #4 or #5 SP. If he give 6IP with 4-4.75 ERA, I'll take that and run with it.

 

Huh? I think you're underestimating Jake Peavy a little. In that rotation, Peavy is your #2 starter by much.

 

But if you want a guy that can give you 6 IP and a 4.75 ERA, then just sign Paul Byrd.

[riverside sluggers]

Peavy averaged 6 innings in the NL, it wouldnt improve going to the AL East. Peavy wouldnt be the #2 guy in the Boston rotation. Its moot anyway because I dont see the Sox giving up a horde of prospects to San Diego

[RedSoxRooter]

I only see this happening if the Tex offer falls apart. They probably would just resign Byrd, but if the Yanks land Tex, go for more pitching I say. But who knows, the GMs are buds and I don't put anything past Theo to upgrade. And it could definitely help both teams.

 

I don't see Lugo being too happy at being a bench player either. Jay Payton anyone?

[BoSox21]

I don't see Lugo being too happy at being a bench player either.

 

If Julio Lugo were to bitch in any way about his role in the team, I'd be perfectly fine with the team telling him he hasn't played well enough to be an every day player and he should thank God he's actually able to make $9 million a year. He's got absolutely no right to complain about being on the bench.

[Cocos Disciples]

That's quite the haul for the Pads.

 

Indeed, and IMO it's way too much. Any Peavy trade probably involves giving up too much, so I'm against it.

[diony]

Peavy averaged 6 innings in the NL' date=' it wouldnt improve going to the AL East. Peavy wouldnt be the #2 guy in the Boston rotation. Its moot anyway because I dont see the Sox giving up a horde of prospects to San Diego[/quote']

 

Dice-K is your #2? What a joke.

 

100 walks here we go.

[Cocos Disciples]

Dice-K is your #2? What a joke.

 

100 walks here we go.

 

Shall we compare our current #2's over the past two seasons?

 

Matsuzaka: 372 1/3 IP, 33-15, 3.72 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 355 K/174 BB

Wang: 294 1/3 IP, 27-9, 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 158 K/94 BB

[Dipre]

Dice-K is your #2? What a joke.

 

100 walks here we go.

 

100 walks, but at least he pitched.

 

Not only that, but even though his BB numbers were crazy, we all know he sustained his performance by limiting the number of hits the opposition got against him in scoring situations, and if that was a fluke, so was the 100 BB.

[mvp 78]

If Julio Lugo were to bitch in any way about his role in the team' date=' I'd be perfectly fine with the team telling him he hasn't played well enough to be an every day player and he should thank God he's actually able to make $9 million a year. He's got absolutely no right to complain about being on the bench.[/quote']

 

jay payton part two?

[example1]

Okay, I got carried away on the Peavy talk in the Teixeira thread, so I figured I would move it over here too, in case people wanted to discuss Peavy in a non-Teixeira context.

 

Now, about Peavy. I think there are two factors that have to be taken into account:

 

1. How good is he

2. What would he cost

 

1. How good is he: I agree with most that it would be crucial to take away some of his numbers in a move from the NLW to the ALE. No doubt. Any pitcher suddenly gets worse facing the Sox, D-Rays, Jays or Yankees over and over.

 

I disagree with most that that transformation would make him not valuable to the Sox. He's still relatively young and his numbers still count, even if they are against NL competition. Furthermore, many of his outs come by K, which is him single handedly getting the hitter out and wouldn't be benefited from a pitchers park.

 

Here are the top 21 (just to include Beckett) AL pitchers in VORP in 2008, 2007 and 2006:

 

2008:

 

Cliff Lee 76.5

Roy Halladay 70.6*

Jon Lester 59.6

John Danks 53.3

Ervin Santana 52.8*

Daisuke Matsuzaka 51.4*

Joe Saunders 46.6

Justin Duchscherer 45.7

Mike Mussina 45.1*

Zack Greinke 44.3

Scott Baker 44.2

James Shields 43.3*

Felix Hernandez 42.8

Jeremy Guthrie 41.8*

Gil Meche 38.9*

Shaun Marcum 37.9

Mark Buehrle 37.2*

Scott Kazmir 36.8*

John Lackey 35.3*

Matt Garza 35.2

Josh Beckett 34.6*

 

2007

 

CC Sabathia 65.2*

Fausto Carmona 64.0

John Lackey 60.7*

Josh Beckett 58.6*

Johan Santana 57.7*

Dan Haren 56.4*

Eric Bedard 54.9*

Javier Vazquez 51.1

Roy Halladay 50.6*

Kelvin Escobar 49.9*

Mark Buehrle 49.3*

Chien-ming Wang 48.5*

Scott Kazmir 47.2*

Gil Meche 47.1*

Joe Blanton 46.3

Justin Verlander 45.9*

James Shields 45.4*

Jeremy Guthrie 38.2*

AJ Burnett 37.5*

Daisuke Matsuzaka 37.0*

Andy Pettitte 36.8*

 

2006:

 

Johan Santana 79.6*

Roy Halladay 68.0*

Chien-ming Wang 54.6*

Barry Zito 49.9

Curt Schilling 48.6

Justin Verlander 47.5*

John Lackey 47.1*

CC Sabathia 46.5*

Mike Mussina 44.9*

Nate Robertson 42.4

Dan Haren 41.4*

Kenny Rogers 40.6

Erik Bedard 40.2*

Jeremy Bonderman 39.8

Jake Westbrook 35.6

Kelvin Escobar 33.9*

Jose Contreras 33.1

Kevin Millwood 32.9

Jon Garland 32.4

Freddy Garcia 32.3

Ervin Santana 30.2*

 

Okay, given those 3 lists, there are 27 players who were either in the top 20 in AL VORP for at least 2 seasons of the past 3, or who seem to have enough talent to be there for the next few years (IMO). That list is (in no particular order)(players in () appeared only on 2008 list, players in [ ] are now in the NL:

 

[J. Santana]

R. Halladay

CC. Sabathia

J. Lackey

J. Beckett

E. Santana,

Matsuzaka,

*Mussina,

Shields,

Guthrie,

Meche,

Kazmir,

[Haren],

*Bedard,

Escobar,

Buehrle,

Wang,

Kazmir,

Verlander,

Burnett,

*Pettitte,

(Lee),

(F. Hernandez%),

(Lester%),

(Saunders),

(Greinke),

(Garza)

 

So to me, the question is:

a) does Peavy belong on this list, if he were in the AL and if so

where?

 

I think that the answer to a) is obvious. Yes. He has been the 3rd or 4th most valuable pitcher by VORP avg over the past 3 years taking both leagues into account.

 

To I would be willing to place him at least solidly in the middle of this list, perhaps at the bottom of the top 1/3rd.

 

AL Pitchers from above list I would definitely rank above Peavy:

 

[J Santana]

Halladay

Sabathia

 

Pitchers I have a hard time saying one way or the other:

 

Lackey

Beckett--amazing stuff, too inconsistent to be top tier

Matsuzaka

Shields

[Haren]

Buehrle

Wang

Kazmir

Verlander

Burnett

E. Santana

*Bedard

 

I would rather have Peavy than:

 

*Mussina

Guthrie

Meche

Escobar

Pettitte

Lee

Saunders

Greinke

Garza

 

Pitchers for whom it is too early to tell, but I would probably rather have than Peavy:

 

(Lester)

(F. Hernandez)

 

 

--So, this absurdly tedious look at the pitchers who are actually pitching in the AL and who are established, and have had some success as SPs, tells me that at worst Peavy is at the bottom of that second group, which, if you remove J Santana and Haren (both of whom are in the NL now) and if you ADD Felix Hernandez and J. Lester (just to be conservative), means he would be one of the top 15 pitchers in the AL IMO.

 

In my opinion, to say that he would "only be a #4 or #5 pitcher in the ALE" vastly over estimates the quality of pitchers in the AL, and under represents the fickle nature of pitcher quality from year to year.

 

The fact that Peavy's track record is considerably better than many on that list and that he has consistently been one of the NL's top pitchers, tells me he would probably bring that consistency to the AL and would probably find pretty good success. Personally, I think he stuff would make him a top 10 pitcher in the AL in a good year, and would be near this top 21 list in an off year.

 

I may be overstating it a bit, but I think people are also overstating the difference between AL and NL, and pitchers park and hitters park.

 

What would he cost? He would probably cost too much because the Padres don't have a bunch of other guys who would fit on any "top player in the league" lists, so they will milk it for all he's worth. That is in addition to his 17m AAV over the next few years.

 

To me (and I've said it before) I think the Sox should set their eyes firmly on Felix Hernandez, and look to score him in a year or two with a significant prospect package similar to their Beckett deal. They should expect to pay a heavy price, including taking veteran $$ from Seattle if need be, but they will benefit from Seattle having 'babied' him over the past few years and his extremely young age.

 

 

Aside from Felix, I don't see many realistic big name young option out there who the Sox could expect to possibly land.

 

Sorry to ramble, but it was a worthwhile thought experiment for me... I hope someone else sees it as valuable too.

 

I wouldn't be totally upset if the Sox pursued Peavy, if the price were right. I don't expect them to break the bank, but if the LAA are indeed the team that goes after Teixeira, I doubt they'll be psyched to pay 17m a year for Peavy with their already-solid pitching staff, and San Diego ("a whale's vagina") will still be looking for suitors.

[BoSox21]

jay payton part two?

 

Jay Payton was signed to a team that had Manny, Damon and Nixon as its starting outfielders. I have no idea where he thought his every day playing time was gonna come from

[mvp 78]

Jay Payton was signed to a team that had Manny' date=' Damon and Nixon as its starting outfielders. I have no idea where he thought his every day playing time was gonna come from[/quote']

 

i agree. i was just noting that there's a chance for lugo to blow up on the team in may.

(note: he was traded rather than "signed" and probably was pissed off at coming to the sox to begin with.)

[ydeologi]

Grrrrreat stuff, but I worry about any power pitcher with injury problems, and any pitcher making the NL -> AL transition. More fail than succeed, and I don't see the Sox overpaying for a guy who hasn't proven he can make that move.