Peavy

[yankeessuck013]

“Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League. If Jake's ever going to accept anything to the American League – and I don't want this to be taken wrong – I can safely say that it's going to be the Yankees or Red Sox or maybe the Angels. Those teams are going to be in contention and are going to spend money. If there were circumstances where he would be asked to go to the AL, kicking and screaming, those are the three places.”

 

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/dec/12/s13padres-peavy-frustrated-trade-talks-cubs/?padres

 

so now he would accept a trade to Boston?

[Dipre]

“Jake has a strong preference to stay in the National League. If Jake's ever going to accept anything to the American League – and I don't want this to be taken wrong – I can safely say that it's going to be the Yankees or Red Sox or maybe the Angels. Those teams are going to be in contention and are going to spend money. If there were circumstances where he would be asked to go to the AL, kicking and screaming, those are the three places.”

 

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/dec/12/s13padres-peavy-frustrated-trade-talks-cubs/?padres

 

so now he would accept a trade to Boston?

 

I still think Peavy would be just an above average pitcher in the AL, so even if he's available, the Sox may be better off passing on him.

[BSN07]

He has to be open to other teams besides the Cubs if he wants out of SD to play for a winner. I think he is a #3 at best in the AL. I think he's a comparable to what AJ Burnett gave last year. 4ish ERA, and he seems to be pretty durable so far.

 

The question remains, what will the Sox have to give to make him in compensation to waive his no trade clause, and what will it cost in prospects.

 

Obviously it will cost atleast 1 of Buchholz,Bowden,Masterson. I think a top OF prospect would be part of a deal. Reddick,Kalish,Westmoreland. Then maybe a player who is far off but with big upside like Almanzar.

 

 

Bowden/Reddick/Almanzar/MDC, sound good to any of you?

 

 

I'm not saying I'd like them to do it, but that looks to be decent offer. Better then the junk they have been getting offered from everyone else.

[Dipre]

He has to be open to other teams besides the Cubs if he wants out of SD to play for a winner. I think he is a #3 at best in the AL. I think he's a comparable to what AJ Burnett gave last year. 4ish ERA, and he seems to be pretty durable so far.

 

The question remains, what will the Sox have to give to make him in compensation to waive his no trade clause, and what will it cost in prospects.

 

Obviously it will cost atleast 1 of Buchholz,Bowden,Masterson. I think a top OF prospect would be part of a deal. Reddick,Kalish,Westmoreland. Then maybe a player who is far off but with big upside like Almanzar.

 

 

Bowden/Reddick/Almanzar/MDC, sound good to any of you?

 

 

I'm not saying I'd like them to do it, but that looks to be decent offer. Better then the junk they have been getting offered from everyone else.

 

A package of that size for the coin he's gonna make while not being at LEAST the number 2 starter on this staff is just silly.

 

We're better off keeping our prospects and letting someone else (Cubs) overpay for Peavy.

[BSN07]

He could go for less. Depends if SD wants Boston to absorb the whole contract. I was just throwing names out there.

[MANNYHOF24]

He has to be open to other teams besides the Cubs if he wants out of SD to play for a winner. I think he is a #3 at best in the AL. I think he's a comparable to what AJ Burnett gave last year. 4ish ERA, and he seems to be pretty durable.

 

 

I'm not saying I'd like them to do it, but that looks to be decent offer. Better then the junk they have been getting offered from everyone else.

 

 

Peavy is stud. Period. Three of the last four years he has had a sub 3 ERA, over 200 innings and over 200 strikeouts. What makes you think he would all of a sudden become a 4ish ERA pitcher in the American Leauge? He was much Better than Josh Beckett in the NL, and Beckett had a season where his ERA was 3.27 and last year he was hurt which caused a 4.03 ERA. If you can get this guy, do it.

[Dipre]

Peavy is stud. Period. Three of the last four years he has had a sub 3 ERA' date=' over 200 innings and over 200 strikeouts. What makes you think he would all of a sudden become a 4ish ERA pitcher in the American Leauge? He was much Better than Josh Beckett in the NL, and Beckett had a season where his ERA was 3.27 and last year he was hurt which caused a 4.03 ERA. If you can get this guy, do it.[/quote']

 

It's not about his ERA, which is mostly a useless stat anyway, it's about his ability to pitch deep into games, because most people with common sense agree that Peavy is most likely a 6 inning pitcher in the AL.

[Dojji]

Because the American League East is just so stacked with offensive talent and the NL West doesn't really have any dominant teams?

 

I don't think the payment would be worth the return on Peavy for us, but that has more to do with diminishing returns since our rotation is already pretty good, and the fact that the price tag will be so high. You might have noticed, but I'm generally not in favor of overpaying for elite talent when it's replacing above average talent.

[MANNYHOF24]

Can you imagine if you traded for Peavy and signed Teixeira?

 

A rotation of

 

Lester

Beckett

Peavy

DiceK

Wake

 

Lineup

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ortiz

Tex

Youk

Bay

Drew

Lowrie

Catcher (prefrebly Varitek if these two things happen)

 

Also with our bullpen of

 

Ramirez

Delcarmen

Masterson

Okajima

Papelbon

 

 

That team would be the favorite to win the AL east, hands down.

[MANNYHOF24]

It's not about his ERA' date=' which is mostly a useless stat anyway, it's about his ability to pitch deep into games, because most people with common sense agree that Peavy is most likely a 6 inning pitcher in the AL.[/quote']

 

The guy has electric stuff and pitches 200 innings every year, how is it common sense to think that he would be a 6 inning pitcher in the AL? Show me some evidence that supports this please.

[Dojji]

A pitcher who dominates the National League West automatically sucks when traded to the AL East, Manny, I thought you knew that.

 

Curt Schilling's 2004 campaign was, after all, positively hideous..

[MANNYHOF24]

Oh, and honestly I would personally take a 6 inning pitcher who would have a low to mid 3 ERA and strike out around 9 guys per 9 innings. As far as getting deep into games though, I think that Peavy would be just as good as Beckett and Lester as far as getting into the 7th and 8th innings.

[BSN07]

I'm not questioning whether or not he is a stud and has eletric stuff. His problem is he is so amped up and trys to strike out so many that he will most likely wear himself out earlier in the deeper AL. Thus some of us saying he could have the potential to be just a 6 inning guy.

 

I like Peavy alot, but I believe that it's reasonable to question a pitcher coming from the NL West. Just like it's reasonable to think that a player coming from the Rockies might not put up the same offensive numbers.

 

Can he be a stud in the AL East? Of course, he has plenty of stuff and the competitive drive. He will need to learn how to "pitch" a little more thow.

[Dipre]

The guy has electric stuff and pitches 200 innings every year' date=' how is it common sense to think that he would be a 6 inning pitcher in the AL? Show me some evidence that supports this please.[/quote']

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/standings

 

Check the Runs Scored of the NL West (no team above 740), and AL East (Only one below 740), which is indicative of the fact that the AL East has much stronger offenses than the NL West, and bound to improve, specially Toronto, now you take into account the DH, a stronger offensive league,and no Petco, add to that the fact he's thrown 200 innings thrice in his career (2008 not being one of those years 173.2 ro be exact), add to that recurrent elbow problems, and what you have is a pitcher who will not eclipse 200 IP in the AL East.

 

And just to illustrate my point even further:

 

Career splits:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=peavyja01&year=00

 

3.80 Away ERA.

 

2008 Splits:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=peavyja01&year=2008

 

4.28 away ERA.

 

Now after reading the above stats, can you seriously tell me Peavy's going to have 200 ip season, and a top-of-the-league ERA (although it's mostly a useless stat, i insist), when he failed to eclipse 200 ip last year and has a career ERA near 4.00 and a career ERA near 4.00 away from the hitter's inferno that is Petco Park?

[Dojji]

I'm not questioning whether or not he is a stud and has eletric stuff. His problem is he is so amped up and trys to strike out so many that he will most likely wear himself out earlier in the deeper AL. Thus some of us saying he could have the potential to be just a 6 inning guy.

 

Quite honestly, that's why you have a pitching coach. Also I wonder whether that behavior might change with better offensive support. Peavy really couldn't count on getting more than 2-3 runs in a given game in San Diego.

 

I like Peavy alot, but I believe that it's reasonable to question a pitcher coming from the NL West. Just like it's reasonable to think that a player coming from the Rockies might not put up the same offensive numbers.

 

Can he be a stud in the AL East? Of course, he has plenty of stuff and the competitive drive. He will need to learn how to "pitch" a little more thow.

 

Honestly I don't think the whole "pitch, not throw" thing is likely to be an issue for Peavy since he already pitches at a very high level. This isn't Josh Beckett here, all talent and limited experience, this is a guy who's been to war a few times.

 

On the other hand though, this is mostly just a waste of time. They threw the name out there because every talented player throws the name of the Red Sox out there these dfays. It's a great sign because it means the credibility of the team is high, but it really doesn't mean that player is coming here.

[Dipre]

Quite honestly, that's why you have a pitching coach. Also I wonder whether that behavior might change with better offensive support. Peavy really couldn't count on getting more than 2-3 runs in a given game in San Diego.

 

 

 

Honestly I don't think the whole "pitch, not throw" thing is likely to be an issue for Peavy since he already pitches at a very high level. This isn't Josh Beckett here, all talent and limited experience, this is a guy who's been to war a few times.

 

On the other hand though, this is mostly just a waste of time. They threw the name out there because every talented player throws the name of the Red Sox out there these dfays. It's a great sign because it means the credibility of the team is high, but it really doesn't mean that player is coming here.

 

Well, gotta agree with you completely on this one.

[TheKilo]

Park factors?

 

[table]Year|IP|Home ERA|Road ERA|Road v. Home Diff.

2002|97.2|2.56|6.23|+3.67

2003|194.2|3.57|4.59|+1.02

2004|166.1|2.21|2.33|+0.12

2005|203.0|2.81|2.98|+0.17

2006|202.1|3.75|4.57|+0.82

2007|223.1|2.51|2.57|+0.06

2008|173.2|1.74|4.28|+2.54[/table]

 

BB/9:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1051_P_season_full_1_20080930.png

 

BB/9:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1051_P_season_full_2_20080930.png

 

 

Peavy's success has always struck me as a product of his home park. The BB/9 seems to be moving closer to the K/9, and I'm not really sure how this trend would translate in the ALE.

 

Not too stoked about giving up a king's ransom for him.

[MANNYHOF24]

Park factors?

 

[table]Year|IP|Home ERA|Road ERA|Road v. Home Diff.

2002|97.2|2.56|6.23|+3.67

2003|194.2|3.57|4.59|+1.02

2004|166.1|2.21|2.33|+0.12

2005|203.0|2.81|2.98|+0.17

2006|202.1|3.75|4.57|+0.82

2007|223.1|2.51|2.57|+0.06

2008|173.2|1.74|4.28|+2.54[/table]

 

BB/9:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1051_P_season_full_1_20080930.png

 

BB/9:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1051_P_season_full_2_20080930.png

 

 

Peavy's success has always struck me as a product of his home park. The BB/9 seems to be moving closer to the K/9, and I'm not really sure how this trend would translate in the ALE.

 

Not too stoked about giving up a king's ransom for him.

 

Yeah, I guess I forgot that he was pitching in Pecto for some reason. However, if we could get him with Buchholz as the main piece, dont you have to consider it?

[TheKilo]

Depends what you're giving up after Buchholz.

[MANNYHOF24]

Depends what you're giving up after Buchholz.

 

Would you go Buchholz, Bowden and a lesser calibur prospect?

[TheKilo]

No, I have difficulty giving up our two best pitching prospects for one when they can be used for a position of need, catcher.

[MANNYHOF24]

No' date=' I have difficulty giving up our two best pitching prospects for one when they can be used for a position of need, catcher.[/quote']

 

Thats a good point, I wasnt really thinking of it in terms of how it affects us on the catching front.

[example1]

I generally like Peavy and think that his splits are somewhat overblown. He's still had 4 seasons of significant IPs where he's getting more than 1 K/IP against MLB hitters. He has the same career ERA+ as CC, and although he pitches in a pitcher's park, I think at 17m he's a better deal than Burnett, but that he probably isn't worth 17m on this Sox team.

 

If the Sox could land him without moving Buchholz or Anderson then I think it is absolutely worth a shot. The chances of that happening are nil, so I don't see Peavy coming to Boston any time soon. A refreshed Buchholz and a still dominant Lester should be what this team needs to compete in the AL East.

[TedWilliams101]

The reason we think of Peavy as being at best a 6-inning pitcher in the AL is because he was a 6-inning pitcher in the NL. Over his career he has averaged 6 1/3 innings per start. Thats while playing in a terrible weak NL west, with a pitcher slot, and in Petco.

 

Look at what CC did to the NL last season. He's always been a great pitcher in the AL, but he absolutely destroyed the NL. Same thing with Clemens. It's no secret.

 

I like Peavy, but I have watched a lot of his games (my friend is in love with him for some reason), and I don't think he could be anything great in the AL East. You would be looking at a 5-inning pitcher, unless he drastically changes his pitching approach. I would compare his style almost to dice-k in the sense that when he gets an 0-2, often it will end up 3-2. He just throws WAY to many pitches per at-bat.

 

That being said, I would love to have him at a cheap price, but they should absolutely not overpay for him. If he could learn to be more efficient, he could be great, but I think it would be just too big a gamble to give up a lot of talent. I don't think I'd want to give up even 1 top pitching prospect for him.

[cobra24]

Can you imagine if you traded for Peavy and signed Teixeira?

 

A rotation of

 

Lester

Beckett

Peavy

DiceK

Wake

 

Lineup

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ortiz

Tex

Youk

Bay

Drew

Lowrie

Catcher (prefrebly Varitek if these two things happen)

 

Also with our bullpen of

 

Ramirez

Delcarmen

Masterson

Okajima

Papelbon

 

 

That team would be the favorite to win the AL east, hands down.

 

I like this alot. i hope we can find a way to keep Masterson in the pen. i think that fits him the best..

 

i wouldnt even mind getting Lowe back.

[BoSox21]

No way Theo would give up what it would take to get Peavy, nor should he

[BSN07]

No way Theo would give up what it would take to get Peavy' date=' nor should he[/quote']

 

I think the only way he ends up in Boston, is if Towers absolutely has to move his salary ASAP. Theo and Towers have a good history. No one else out there matches up good enough to make a trade without involving 2+ more teams. If Theo could some how use this to his advantage there might be a deal in there somwhere.

 

 

I still think a package of Bowden,Reddick,Almanzar + the Sox taking on most of the Salary would be the best deal Towers could get.

 

SD is trying to cut salary. So they don't really need ML ready players back in return. This team isn't going to contend for awhile.

[BoSox21]

If Towers absolutely had to move Peavy, he'd be a Cub right now. Towers can wait until the season starts and the injury report starts to fill up

[BSN07]

If Towers absolutely had to move Peavy' date=' he'd be a Cub right now. Towers can wait until the season starts and the injury report starts to fill up[/quote']

 

No he wouldn't. Because the Cubs want to move salary back to make room for Peavy and SD can't do that. Hence why all the other teams where involved. If Peavy is traded to the Cubs, Marquis salary has to be moved as well, but SD won't take his contract. That's where there hung up. If it was just players, ya he be a Cub. But the biggest problem is money. Plus the Cubs also lack the Pitching SD wants in return.

 

 

If Bowden was offered in a deal, he would easily be the best pitching prospect SD has been offered.

[Dipre]

I think the only way he ends up in Boston, is if Towers absolutely has to move his salary ASAP. Theo and Towers have a good history. No one else out there matches up good enough to make a trade without involving 2+ more teams. If Theo could some how use this to his advantage there might be a deal in there somwhere.

 

 

I still think a package of Bowden,Reddick,Almanzar + the Sox taking on most of the Salary would be the best deal Towers could get.

 

SD is trying to cut salary. So they don't really need ML ready players back in return. This team isn't going to contend for awhile.

 

If it could be done for the package you state here, it probably would have been, i think it's good for both sides, but i suppose SD would want much more in return.