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Posted

Why would the Sox trade Lowell before getting Tex??? If they get Tex, bring back Lowell slowly from the DL. Make sure he's right, then trade him later in the season once he's cleared to play every day. He is Mike Lowell by the way - he knows it's a business, he's class all the way. He'd understand. And if something happens to Youk or Tex or even Papi at DH, then we have a super sub 3rd baseman in the wings much like Crisp was in the OF.

 

 

They wouldn't complete a trade before signing Tex but they would have to be confident that they could make one. The whole situation is sticky.

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Posted

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081119&content_id=3685422&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

 

Ramon Ramirez, the newest member of the Boston Red Sox, can easily flash back to May 20, the only time he's ever pitched at Fenway Park.

 

"I was discussing the very same thing with my father a little while ago -- how, when I first got out there, you felt the history of the stadium," Ramirez said through interpreter Eddie Romero. "It was packed."

 

"You have all these fans there. It was like a Major League moment," Ramirez said. "You look around and you're at Fenway and you recall the level of players that have played on this field. It was really something that caused a great amount of joy. A very proud moment for me."

 

And now that the right-handed reliever is a member of the Boston Red Sox?

 

"I couldn't be happier right now. I'm ecstatic," Ramirez said.

 

"I think it's a new experience for me to be able to be on a contending club," Ramirez said. "I know that Boston is going to be in it this upcoming season and that they have been the past couple of years. It's just an exciting opportunity to be able to be on a winning club."

 

"It doesn't matter what inning it is, that's for the team to decide," Ramirez said. "It's not up to me. I'll do whatever they want me to do. As far as my demeanor, I like being aggressive. I like attacking the strike zone, it doesn't matter what the count or what situation I'm being brought into. I just want to be as aggressive as possible and go right after hitters."

 

That type of mentality will suit him well in Boston, a place which can carve up a player not accustomed to the pressure.

 

"Other players have discussed those type of things," Ramirez said. "But I feel aside from the pressure, it's a great place to play. The fans give the team so much support. I'm human, sometimes you do feel some pressure. But I'm just going to go out there and give 200 percent of what I can for the team and do what I can to ignore that pressure. I don't think it will be an issue."

Posted
They wouldn't complete a trade before signing Tex but they would have to be confident that they could make one. The whole situation is sticky.

 

And they could make one and they know it.

Posted
And they could make one and they know it.

 

Yeah, as you said there are definitely suitors for Lowell, though we may have to eat some salary.

 

For the lazy, here's our new guy:

http://i.a.cnn.net/si/images/baseball/mlb/players/7730.jpg

Posted

http://diamondbacks.mlb.com/mlb/images/news/postseason/y2008/tn_delcarmen.jpg

 

Separated at birth.

 

Ramirez is basically Delcarmen. If you like Delcarmen, you'll like Ramirez.

Posted
http://diamondbacks.mlb.com/mlb/images/news/postseason/y2008/tn_delcarmen.jpg

 

Separated at birth.

 

Ramirez is basically Delcarmen. If you like Delcarmen, you'll like Ramirez.

 

I was coming here to post the exact same thing. I think their stuff is similar and their roles will be similar. The Sox must think fairly highly of him if they were willing to give up a potential everyday player like Crisp for him--I suppose his age and cost control play a big part in his value.

Posted
I am not saying its a terrible trade. I think the sox got a guy who could be a dominant reliever. I just thought on a pure value level' date=' that they got the short end of the stick.[/quote']

 

I thought this too. but I read there was a surprisingly small market for Crisp. It was the Royals and Reds. Those are the only teams that where in on him.

Posted

Coco's a below average hitter and his defensive numbers are inconsistent. I didn't realize Crisp was only average in center this year. I think considering this they did a great job picking up a potentially dominant reliever for him.

 

I do want to thank him for his huge defensive contribution to the World Series title in 2007. There are a lot of games we literally would not have won without his glove in centerfield.

Posted
Reds GM Walt Jocketty says that his team nearly settled on a deal for Coco Crisp, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "We were close," Jocketty said, although specific pieces aren't mentioned in the article. It'd be interesting to know what the Reds were offering considering the Red Sox received pitching help in exchange for Crisp.
Posted
I wonder if the Sox would be able to swing a Mike Lowell for Franklin Gutierrez type deal

 

Sure, why not? I mean, Gutierrez has a whopping .258/.308/.409/.717 line, I'm sure teams are lining up to trade 20 HR clubhouse leaders for him.

Posted

bosox

baldelli was an abuser since the summer before his senior year in high school.

that s*** does things to your body that we dont even know about yet.

Gom

im not all giddy on crisp and i love pitching but this guy we got struggles against lefties and had his break out year at age 27 in kc...if he couldnt win the closers job in kc then he aint all that good,the #s arent breathtaking either...1.23 whip isnt what i want for the 8th inning, the era is ok but i dont know about inherited runners scoring...Timlin is done,he was a real pro here for a long time and was awesome down the stretch in 03-04...

He deserves to be recognized for his efforts but he is indeed done.

Posted
bosox

baldelli was an abuser since the summer before his senior year in high school.

that s*** does things to your body that we dont even know about yet.

Gom

im not all giddy on crisp and i love pitching but this guy we got struggles against lefties and had his break out year at age 27 in kc...if he couldnt win the closers job in kc then he aint all that good,the #s arent breathtaking either...1.23 whip isnt what i want for the 8th inning, the era is ok but i dont know about inherited runners scoring...Timlin is done,he was a real pro here for a long time and was awesome down the stretch in 03-04...

He deserves to be recognized for his efforts but he is indeed done.

 

Fair enough Crunch, I will admit it's possible.

 

 

 

Lowell to Cleveland for Guitz is insanely out fo the question. Listen obviously if they trade Lowell it will be a sell low compared to say his value last season. But If they sign Tex. The Sox won't have use for them. And Guitz could be a very good 4th OF option to replace Crisp. And since the Sox would most likely only get Guitz back, Cleveland might pick up more of his remaining contract of Lowell's.

 

Although is Lowell is moved, I won't be shocked if the Sox eat alot of the contract.

Posted
bosox

baldelli was an abuser since the summer before his senior year in high school.

that s*** does things to your body that we dont even know about yet.

Gom

im not all giddy on crisp and i love pitching but this guy we got struggles against lefties and had his break out year at age 27 in kc...if he couldnt win the closers job in kc then he aint all that good,the #s arent breathtaking either...1.23 whip isnt what i want for the 8th inning, the era is ok but i dont know about inherited runners scoring...Timlin is done,he was a real pro here for a long time and was awesome down the stretch in 03-04...

He deserves to be recognized for his efforts but he is indeed done.

 

That's actually not true, Soria is one of the top 5 closers in the AL.

Posted

Seems everyone wants to build a fantasy team by letting go some winners,guys who are leaders,play thru pain,come thru in the clutch and deliver when it matters.

Lowell is older,sure but is he done?

Tek couldnt hit for s*** last year but is he finished?at 52M for 4 he is but i think he will get a grip and come back for something more reasonable but then again after giving half his money to his exwife??

a mill here and there may matter to him, i dont know.

perhaps he should just hit from the right side where he hit at .280 i think, i can live with that.

All these other guys that are mentioned as catchers are shiny but are they prepared to play 130 games in this environment?

Texeira

we are willing to offer this guy 175-200M to sign here?

well i hope they get him because hes a real talent but ....

Jesus Christ,

youk had very similar #s and his defense takes a back seat to nobody,are we going to pay youkillis 150M as well??

id just assume give our guy the money and go balls deep for another pitcher,Burnett is extremely attractive in my eyes and his health issues aside, i find him to be the best pitcher on the market, better than sheets sabby and whoever else is out there.

The Cubs gave Ryan Dempster 52m?

Good, I hate the Cubs

Posted
Seems everyone wants to build a fantasy team by letting go some winners,guys who are leaders,play thru pain,come thru in the clutch and deliver when it matters.

Lowell is older,sure but is he done?

Tek couldnt hit for s*** last year but is he finished?at 52M for 4 he is but i think he will get a grip and come back for something more reasonable but then again after giving half his money to his exwife??

a mill here and there may matter to him, i dont know.

perhaps he should just hit from the right side where he hit at .280 i think, i can live with that.

All these other guys that are mentioned as catchers are shiny but are they prepared to play 130 games in this environment?

Texeira

we are willing to offer this guy 175-200M to sign here?

well i hope they get him because hes a real talent but ....

Jesus Christ,

youk had very similar #s and his defense takes a back seat to nobody,are we going to pay youkillis 150M as well??

id just assume give our guy the money and go balls deep for another pitcher,Burnett is extremely attractive in my eyes and his health issues aside, i find him to be the best pitcher on the market, better than sheets sabby and whoever else is out there.

The Cubs gave Ryan Dempster 52m?

Good, I hate the Cubs

 

This is actually a very very very good point.

Posted

It does bring up a point about diminishing returns, doesn't it?

 

I mean, it might look like a slam dunk to bring in a player who's 5-6 wins above average even if the contract is vast, but if you're replacing a guy who's 4 wins above average then you're really only gaining 1-2 wins in net so you have to ask if it's worth the effort.

 

The other side of that question: Of course we're going to pay Youkilis. We're going to pay him a LOT of money. He's worth it. He's what makes it possible for either Teixeira, or eventually Anderson, to replace Lowell. He's got a big role to play in Boston for as long as he wants it.

Posted
Burnett is extremely attractive in my eyes and his health issues aside, i find him to be the best pitcher on the market

 

Yes, and health issues aside, I'd love to f*** Pam Anderson rawdog.

 

 

Not to mention paying 80M for a guy with a 4 ERA

 

 

How does that improve our team in the long run again?

Posted
This is actually a very very very good point.

 

Yes...but youk did those numbers once while tex has putting numbers like that for the past 5-6 years

 

EDIT:and also adding tex would not be to replace youk it would be to replace lowell with youk moving to 3rd

Posted
It does bring up a point about diminishing returns, doesn't it?

 

I mean, it might look like a slam dunk to bring in a player who's 5-6 wins above average even if the contract is vast, but if you're replacing a guy who's 4 wins above average then you're really only gaining 1-2 wins in net so you have to ask if it's worth the effort.

 

The other side of that question: Of course we're going to pay Youkilis. We're going to pay him a LOT of money. He's worth it. He's what makes it possible for either Teixeira, or eventually Anderson, to replace Lowell. He's got a big role to play in Boston for as long as he wants it.

This "diminished returns" is the market though. A look at $/VORP reveals that each incremental marginal gain comes at increasing cost. You aren't going to get an 8 WARP player for twice what a 4 WARP player costs on the market. The higher the level of performance, the more scarcity comes into play.

 

Furthermore, you are downplaying the gain. The 4 year weighted average for Teixeira vs. Lowell is 9.2 to 6.6. This is with Teixeira entering his prime (just came off a 10 WARP season), and Lowell well past his going into the year with a potentially debilitating injury. I went to 4 years to include Lowell's abyssmal 2005 (2.3 WARP) to offset his fantasyland 2007 (8.7 WARP). The gap is approaching 3 wins, and I'd bet it exceeds it this year.

Posted

Another good point, ORS, and if you use Fangraph's $5.5 m estimate per extra win you're looking at a $16.5 million increase on Lowell's salary, bringing it closer to $30 mil.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-values-mark-teixeira/

 

If Teixeira is a +5 win player, and we use the $5.5 million per win projection for off-season spending, that gives us a $27.5 million figure for 2009. Again, we’ll factor in a 10% discount off of his current value for the safety of a long term deal, and that gives us something like $24.5 million for Teixeira. Teams are more comfortable giving longer deals to hitters than pitchers, so let’s pencil him in for a 7 year, $171 million contract.
Posted
Yes...but youk did those numbers once while tex has putting numbers like that for the past 5-6 years

 

Youk has put together three solid campaign in a row, it's not like he's only had one good year.

 

That said, comparing the two over the last three years, Tex leads in each of the following categories overall AND in most categories (except BA I thin in 2008) each individual year: Average, HRs, RBIs, OBP, OPS.

 

However the gap between the two has closed quite a bit. The how long has the guy been doing it argument? I think of Wade Boggs and how long it took him to become the Red Sox starting 3B...Youk has finally arrived in a similar fashion, wheras Tex made a splash at a younger age...that simply illustrates that some guys develop at different rates.

 

Personally I don't think the difference between them is all that great, certainly not justified by the salary differences we're about to see. That said, it concerns me that potentially the Sox would pay Tex those $$ and what that means for Youk in terms of an extension some time soon.

Posted
Yes...but youk did those numbers once while tex has putting numbers like that for the past 5-6 years

 

EDIT:and also adding tex would not be to replace youk it would be to replace lowell with youk moving to 3rd

 

The point is we'd have to pay Youkilis Teixeira money when he hits FA.

Posted
I'm with you there, Rician. I think the lone solid argument against signing Teixeira has nothing to do with Mike Lowell. The issue of concern should be the fact that the core of this team is all underpriced right now, but won't be in 3-4 years. Who do they see as the must keep guys? They won't be able to afford them all. Just won't happen, not unless guys start signing extensions with a little home town discount thrown in right now. Does their vision of the core moving forward include Mark Teixeira? We don't know, but it will be interesting if he is to see who gets left out when they start making offers to keep these guys around.
Posted

I agree with pretty much everything you've said here ORS, especially the point of each $/VORP point costing more than the previous point.

 

However...why can't the Red Sox afford all their players? They are the 2nd richest team in baseball.

Posted

It's not totally out of the realm of possibilites that they can sign them all. They don't have to extend anyone for a couple years. But if say the get Pedroia and Papelbon this season. Maybe Lester and Youk next season. Then the following year Papi comes off the books(replaced by Lars, who will be cheap for awhile). So does Beckett. And the following season Drew comes off the books.

 

Out of all of them tho, I don't see them letting Pedroia or Lester walk, Papelbon either. Youk on the other hand is almost 30, so in a couple years, they might very well let him hit FA.

 

I'm sure the FO has a plan going forward to keep the players they want around.

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