5/3 vs. Tampa Bay Rays

[Jayhawk Bill]

Site went down for me for a while.

 

Yeah...I'm back.

 

Nice game.

 

I was posting that I see Schilling back late in the season...I see Colon making spot starts sooner, but I don't see him lasting all season in the shape he's in after throwing hard all winter.

[VA Sox Fan]

Yeah...I'm back.

 

Nice game.

 

I was posting that I see Schilling back late in the season...I see Colon making spot starts sooner, but I don't see him lasting all season in the shape he's in after throwing hard all winter.

 

I hope you are right about Schill, especially if the post season is in the cards.

 

Colon would be a pleasant and cheap surprise if he can contribute with spot starts etc.

[das11209]

I hope you are right about Schill, especially if the post season is in the cards.

 

Colon would be a pleasant and cheap surprise if he can contribute with spot starts etc.

 

10% chance may be at best Colon can return to his Cy Young form.

 

But if he does - he is much better option than Curt at the point of his career.

[VA Sox Fan]

Tek better be okay dammit!!

 

THANK YOU YOUK OF THE NATION FOR BANNING THE ANNOYING TROLL! :thumbsup:

[Youk Of The Nation]

It's what I'm here for!

[Jayhawk Bill]

OK. I'm still a little hurt that my recent thread (LINK) got only two replies' date=' but... It certainly appears the point is moot, anyway. The offense has returned.[/quote']

 

Dude...I'd thought that it was request for memorabilia!

[ORS]

Nice quick inning from Beckett. He doesn't have his top-shelf stuff tonight, but, aside from the inning where he loaded the bases, he's pitched well with what he has. When Manny bailed him out, I thought he was overthrowing all inning.

[Cocos Disciples]

As for the Colon vs Schilling question posed, I'm going with Schilling. If he is healthy enough to pitch, he will be in the rotation, whereas that is not necessarily true for Colon.

[ORS]

The Ray's feed has the dead CF angle tonight. Howell gets an assload of movement on his 2-seamer.

[soxfan17881]

The Ray's feed has the dead CF angle tonight. Howell gets an assload of movement on his 2-seamer.

 

NESN Seems to have that all the time now. I like it, for the very reason that you can really see the pitches. Those guys on Baseball Tonight are always making comments. One of them said it makes hime feel "100 miles away," which makes no freakin' sense to me.

[das11209]

Anyone else thinks that the offensive explosion with Jacoby's coming back to the line-up is not a co-incidence?

 

Edit - Ortiz is coming around after a horrendous start too.

[Cocos Disciples]

Sooo happy that the offense has woken up the last 2 nights.

[ORS]

Anyone else thinks that the offensive explosion with Jacoby's coming back to the line-up is not a co-incidence?

 

Edit - Ortiz is coming around after a horrendous start too.

Coincidence. That is, unless Ellsbury's presence in the lineup makes everyone stop hitting the ball right at people.

[soxfan17881]

Baseball Tonight's Buster Olney (talking over the highlight of Manny's throw home) just said that Manny plays the green monster, quote "...better than anyone ever has..." When reminded about Yaz, Olney said, "Yes. As good as Yaz."

[Beaneater]

Admit it -- it would be entertaining in a pathological sort of way to watch Gagne try to blow an 8-run lead.

[Beaneater]

Aardsma? But he's half-decent! Shouldn't Timlin be mopping up?

[Cocos Disciples]

No way in hell Aardsma is half decent.

[ORS]

Win. Liked what I saw tonight.

[Beaneater]

No way in hell Aardsma is half decent.

 

Really? His stats on the season look half-decent. Way too many walks, but a 3 ERA. But you've seen him pitch and I haven't, so maybe you know something I don't.

[Jayhawk Bill]

No way in hell Aardsma is half decent.

 

Concur. He's at least two-thirds decent.

 

***

 

I saw both Yaz and Manny in left field. Yaz was better--no contest in any respect, either range or throwing arm or knowledge of the wall.

 

***

 

Good game. This was fun to watch.

[Cocos Disciples]

Really? His stats on the season look half-decent. Way too many walks' date=' but a 3 ERA. But you've seen him pitch and I haven't, so maybe you know something I don't.[/quote']

 

Maybe we have different definitions of half decent, but I don't think Aardsma is good enough to make a point of saving him for a closer game. This year he has a 1.50 WHIP, showing that his 3.07 ERA is bound to rise heavily. In his career, in 110 2/3 IP since 2004, he has a 4.88 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and a 1.56 K/BB ratio. That sucks.

[Beaneater]

Maybe we have different definitions of half decent' date=' but [b']I don't think Aardsma is good enough to make a point of saving him for a closer game[/b]. This year he has a 1.50 WHIP, showing that his 3.07 ERA is bound to rise heavily. In his career, in 110 2/3 IP since 2004, he has a 4.88 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and a 1.56 K/BB ratio. That sucks.

 

OK, that makes sense.

 

On the other hand, if you don't pitch Timlin with an 8-run lead, when do you pitch him? We can agree that Aardsma > Timlin right now, I hope...

[Jayhawk Bill]

Aardsma has allowed only a 12.5% LD%, suggesting that opposing batters are having trouble making good contact. He's actually had some bad luck on BABIP: none of his line drives allowed have yet been fielded by Boston's defense, while normally about 70% are caught. His WHIP is high, but it's largely walks, and walks are only 70% as important as singles.

 

Let's see how he does...but right now let's celebrate his solid start with Boston.

[Cocos Disciples]

OK, that makes sense.

 

On the other hand, if you don't pitch Timlin with an 8-run lead, when do you pitch him? We can agree that Aardsma > Timlin right now, I hope...

 

We absolutely can. Unfortunately, Francona seems to still trust Timlin, as he continues to use him despite his outrageously high ERA and WHIP.

[Beaneater]

Aardsma... a 12.5% LD%

 

Aardsma is 12.5% learning disabled? He looks pretty bright in his GameCast picture...

[Beaneater]

We absolutely can. Unfortunately' date=' Francona seems to still trust Timlin, as he continues to use him despite his outrageously high ERA and WHIP.[/quote']

 

Tito thinks 2003 Timlin is somewhere in the bullpen.

[Jayhawk Bill]

We absolutely can. Unfortunately' date=' Francona seems to still trust Timlin, as he continues to use him despite his outrageously high ERA and WHIP.[/quote']

 

Specifically, he uses him in high-leverage situations despite his outrageously bad pitching. Here's the average leverage (criticality) of each Boston pitcher's 2008 appearances, minimum three games pitched in relief:

 

[table] Name | Leverage

Papelbon | 1.88

Okajima | 1.60

Timlin | 1.23

Lopez | 1.06

Delcarmen | 1.03

Corey | 0.88

Aardsma | 0.82

Tavarez | 0.27 [/table]

 

A leverage of 1.00 is average, reflecting the start of a game.

 

It's not just that Aardsma is clearly better than Timlin this year--it's that Tavarez is clearly better than Timlin this year.

 

The best solution would be to ease Timlin into retirement somehow to clear a roster spot while treating a cherished member of two World Champion teams with dignity. Barring that, giving Timlin the chance to pitch a few innings with 12-4 leads--or, better yet, behind by four or more runs--would be better thanusing him as the alternate set-up guy.

 

Aardsma is 12.5% learning disabled? He looks pretty bright in his GameCast picture...

 

Yeah, ESPN chose a good picture...

 

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/65x90/7307.jpg

 

...but that's from his time with the White Sox, AFTER he'd already learned how to pitch. Here's a picture from when he was STILL LEARNING in AAA:

 

http://woolis.com/images/2006ICubs/06BB05-16%20087Aardsma.jpg

 

See the difference?

 

***

 

OK, LD% is, of course, "Line Drive Percentage." Aardsma is only allowing 12.5% of balls in play to be line drives, while 16% or higher is more typical. LD% is a good metric regarding how hard a pitcher is being hit.

[Beaneater]

OK' date=' LD% is, of course, "Line Drive Percentage."[/quote']

 

Yeah, I figured that. It's just that when I see "LD", the special ed class is the first thing that comes to mind. It's as if there was a stat called Leaguewide Mean Arbitration Opportunities. It'd be pretty hard not to double-take if someone talked about Boston's excellent LMAO rating from last off-season.