...and whoever's playing the Yankees - 2008 Game Thread

[ORS]

You are right - that's too bad. It is not in my place to change your attitude - and I don't think it will ever change. And I never said I don't need stats. Stats are indicative of future performance 'indicative' being the operative word. Forget the baseball world - if stats could correctly predict future like stock market - we all will be rich. And again that is just my opinion - your opinion may very which I totally respect.

 

You missed my message. If you don't like someone's opinion - you have every right to exchange opinion and debate in a proper fashion but have no right to abuse them. Specially in a well-moderated forum.

Many people make loads on the stock market through statistical research. What is your point?

 

Also, you opinion right now disagrees not with the predictive value of stats, but also with the actual recorded data. That means your opinion is wrong. Unfortunately, you can't admit that, and you continually attempt to excuse your wrongness as just an opinion. Wrong is wrong, opinion or not.

[das11209]

Many people make loads on the stock market through statistical research. What is your point?

 

 

I happen to work in Algo trading - and I have never seen anyone predicting the stock market perfectly with stats. Many people make money and many don't. I don't think Greenspan knew that he was causing the biggest housing market crash in US history when he kept interest rates too low for too long. I am sure he did his homework.

 

My point is - stats are helpful if you use them right. Stats about past does not exactly tell you what future holds. Do you disagree?

[CrespoBlows]

I happen to work in Algo trading - and I have never seen anyone predicting the stock market perfectly with stats. Many people make money and many don't. I don't think Greenspan knew that he was causing the biggest housing market crash in US history when he kept interest rates too low for too long. I am sure he did his homework.

 

My point is - stats are helpful if you use them right. Stats about past does not exactly tell you what future holds. Do you disagree?

 

Dude, no one is saying stats are perfect. They're a hell of a lot better in predicting future events, than you going on a hunch.

 

The stats point out that the Red Sox are likely going to hit the ball. s***, you don't even need the stats. Look at the players in the lineup. They're all pretty good hitters, right?

[das11209]

Dude, no one is saying stats are perfect. They're a hell of a lot better in predicting future events, than you going on a hunch.

 

The stats point out that the Red Sox are likely going to hit the ball. s***, you don't even need the stats. Look at the players in the lineup. They're all pretty good hitters, right?

 

Let's hope it happens asap. Anyway - it was a good discussion but I will try to stick to the subject of the thread going forward ( Yankee games).

[jacksonianmarch]

CM Wang is the luckiest SOB in the ML. I have watched almost all his starts last 2 years - and I have no clue how he got 38 wins.

 

He's now 6-0 and has won 19 games the past 2 seasons each. Its about time we stop calling him lucky and start calling him one of the better pitchers in the league. He is our stopper thus far this yr.

[das11209]

He's now 6-0 and has won 19 games the past 2 seasons each. Its about time we stop calling him lucky and start calling him one of the better pitchers in the league. He is our stopper thus far this yr.

 

back to stats. No arguing with his results though - he is successful.

[ORS]

The case for "luck" with CMW still remains a strong one. With each passing year, his GB% has faded at the expense of a higher LD%. His FB% remains fairly constant. (see graph) Now, it would stupid to expect these trends to continue, as, eventually, he'd be giving up close to 60% LDs and about 20% each of the other two variety. Not likely. I would expect that somewhere close to what we are seeing this year will become the baseline.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/2074_P_season_full_9_20080502.png

 

Line drives are usually an indicator of more quality contact against the pitcher. What's odd about this year is that, in a small one month sample, his BABIP has surprisingly dropped, which is the opposite of what you would expect. (see graph)

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/2074_P_season_full_7_20080502.png

 

That is unlikely to hold. Notice how it increased as the LD% went up and GB% dropped in previous years. For it to remain at this year's current level will require some good fortune, or, to use a synonimous term, luck.

 

The biggest surprise to me has been his HR/FB ratio. In his MLB years, his HR/FB rate has been 11.2%, 8.2%, 6.4%, and 3.1% from 2005-2008. This is anomalous to the trends in his contact type rates. Batters are squaring the ball up more often, yet a RH pitcher who throws half his games in the greatest HR park for LH hitters has managed to reduce the incidences where a fly ball leaves the park. Color me skeptical as to his ability to maintain this type of good fortune. His best active comparables in terms of repertoire and GB inducing ability are Lowe and Webb. Both are better at missing bats, and both have not seen an erosion of their GB%, yet both are typically north of 10% HR/FB while pitching a significant amount of games in extreme pitcher's parks (I realize Webb's home park is not a pitcher's park but the rest of the NL West is).

[schillingouttheks]

He's now 6-0 and has won 19 games the past 2 seasons each. Its about time we stop calling him lucky and start calling him one of the better pitchers in the league. He is our stopper thus far this yr.

 

Didn't you say, after last season, that he's not a 1, but a 2 at best? I swear you did.

[jacksonianmarch]

he isnt a postseason ace. Unfortunately, those are few and far between these days. He is one of the better pitchers in the league. But he isnt a #1.

[das11209]

New Yankee savior Rasner gave up a 2 run home-run to Beltre in the first innings.

 

Edit - Next Yankee savior replacing Kennedy is - Kei Igawa...:)

[ORS]

Rasner needs 76 pitches to go 6 against the M's, he's got an 8-2 lead, and Girardi goes to Fred "The Dorf" Dorfman who is on pace for over 100 IP. That's a Torre move. Stupid.

[das11209]

Joba gave up a 3 run Homerun in 8th. 5-3 Guardians.

[Remember the Titans]

LOL 5-3 Tribe

[TheKilo]

Awesome. Sheer awesomeness.

[ORS]

Nice to see the Stadium pay off for the opposition too.

[BoSox21]

hahahaha, Joba s*** the bed

[a700hitter]

Joba"s ERA is at a non-dominating 3.38. They had better make him a starter.

[ORS]

Very satisfying day of baseball.

[ARod2212]

It happens. He'll bounce back. It's only May.

[yeszir]

Granted, its only the second HR he's given up ever but still, that makes me smile.

[German Workers Party]

STFU Homeruns are for noobs.

[Mr Crunchy]

good to see the american nazi's represented here.

sonny

Sie brauchen eine ausbildung gemeinsam takt motherf***er

 

if we come face to face you'll be eating my schmekel balls deep with all the zest and vigor you're cock swilling brethren have come to shown in the field of championship cocksucking tournaments....

dont ban him

find him

[Mr Crunchy]

apologies to the german folk on board here

as most of you know i am an equel oppurtunity xenophobic bigot.

 

watching joba pitch last night was exciting

when he walked gomes to pitch to garko i thought cleveland had a pop to tie the game.

when they brought in delucci i was pissed till he hit the traditional bronx homerun and then the yanks faded into the night.

ny is 0-19 when trailing after 8 but have indeed been playing well as of late.

[The Dustball]

3-0 Guardians in the 5th....could've been more but Sizemore was caught stealing third. It's nice to finally see a team get to Wang

[Optimist]

That inning shows what injuries have done to this team as Morgan Ensberg (not A-Rod) and Molina (not Posada) face Lee in his first "jam" of the night.

[a700hitter]

That inning shows what injuries have done to this team as Morgan Ensberg (not A-Rod) and Molina (not Posada) face Lee in his first "jam" of the night.

Have some cheese with that whine.

[The Dustball]

Sigh. The Guardians have driven Wangs pitch count up all night, and when they have a chance to knock him out of the game, they give him a nice, easy 8 pitch inning

[Optimist]

Have some cheese with that whine.

 

Says everybody's favorite whine connoisseur.

 

Since when is pointing out a fact whining? Geeze.

[jacksonianmarch]

if we dont get anything out of the top of the order, it feels like we dont have a shot.

[a700hitter]

Says everybody's favorite whine connoisseur.

 

Since when is pointing out a fact whining? Geeze.

Whine season has started earlier than usual for Yankee fans.