Would you bring Manny back in 2009?

[ORS]

It's a statistical theory. At most it is an indicator. It does not determine with accuracy the number of runs a fielder saves or gives up for his team.

Why can't it? Based on historical performance we know the context independent value of a single through linear weighting. With observational data, we know how many extra hits or bases a fielder gives up relative to average. Assign the linear weight value to the marginal outcomes, and voila, you have a very good idea of relative performance.

 

Remember, the runs created formulas, be it RC or EqR or etc, have very high correlations to runs scored. The Linear Weights model has the highest correlation. The input variables are the offensive counting stats (1B, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, CS, GIDP, etc) and the output is runs. With each season, you get 30 equations that look like this....

 

1B + 2B + 3B + HR + BB + HBP + SB + CS + K + OUT + GIDP + SF + SH = R

 

...one for each team. With 13 variables and 30 equations, you can find the linear value of each variable. To get even closer values, you can average the results over a period of years. So, while you are right, it is just an approximation, it's got a pretty small error factor due to the multitude of historical data that can be used to create the model.

 

EDIT: Where I think the models fail is in the adjustments for Fenway. JHB noted earlier that Manny is just as bad by these metrics on the road as he is at Fenway. That, to me, suggests there is a problem with the models because of two things. One, his problem is limited range, which is greatly reduced at Fenway. Two, everyone acknowledges he is very adept at playing the monster. His numbers should be better at Fenway. I trust his road numbers for what they are because those parks are normally sized and have normal wall types (for the most part).

[Jayhawk Bill]

EDIT: Where I think the models fail is in the adjustments for Fenway. JHB noted earlier that Manny is just as bad by these metrics on the road as he is at Fenway. That' date=' to me, suggests there is a problem with the models because of two things. One, his problem is limited range, which is greatly reduced at Fenway. Two, everyone acknowledges he is very adept at playing the monster. His numbers should be better at Fenway. I trust his road numbers for what they are because those parks are normally sized and have normal wall types (for the most part).[/quote']

 

First, thanks for trying to explain the accuracy of these metrics in other words.

 

Regarding the Fenway/non-Fenway splits, my points are that Fenway hurts Manny less than other outfielders because his range is already so limited by speed, and the models already give Manny the benefit of hitting in Fenway. I didn't find anything about a park factor on defensive stats: one could try to offer Manny a few runs for that, but they'd be offset by the amount that Fenway boosts his offense, which is roughly 10-70 OPS points in recent years.

 

*****************************************************************

 

I was asking how it could be verified that he is at -17 runs as a fielder. This is his injury log.

 

The post to which I was responding cited both the question you reiterate and your belief that his injuries are irrelevant. I was addressing both points.

[Hammer]

if I may add my 2 cents...........this team just wouldn't be the same without manny and David........not having manny would be like having one prized cuff link in the dresser draw.

without any doubt manny is the purest hitter I have ever seen in my lifetime....I hope we see him in a red sox uniform for a long long time.

 

here's to the dynamic dominican duo!!! whoooooooooooooooooooouh!!!!

[jacksonianmarch]

THE HAMMER RETURNS. Long time no speak Ham the Man, how are ya?

[a700hitter]

The post to which I was responding cited both the question you reiterate and your belief that his injuries are irrelevant. I was addressing both points.

I never said that injuries were irrelevant. I said that his injuries the last two years were not chronic injuries. He has recovered from those injuries and should be starting the season healthy. You were citing a stat about down years after a certain age as an indicator of diminished productivity. I pointed out that he has been injured the last two years, resulting in reduced productivity. Since his injuries were not chronic, I don't think the last two years are a valid indicator of his future productivity.

[soxfan17881]

Coincidentally, I'm reading Jason Stark's book, "The Stark Truth" which lists his lists of the most underrated and overrated baseball players at each position. Stark lists Manny as one of his underrated left fielders and, admittedly, bases it almost solely on the fact that

"Manny Ramirez is arguably one of the five greatest right handed hitters who ever lived."

 

Here are some more items that Stark lists. I'm following his text closely, here, but I've edited some things to include this past season:

 

Only right handed members of the .300-.400-.600 club?

Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Alber Pujols, Many Ramirez.

 

Of that group, the only one who's been to home plate more than Manny is Foxx.

 

He has a batting title, a home run title, and RBI title, and a World Series MVP.

He's done something Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, or Joe DiMaggio never did; Finished in the top ten for MVP voting for [nine] straight seasons.

 

[After the 2007 season,] Manny's career OPS (OBP + SLG) is [1.002], which is [229] points higher than the average hitter of his time. This puts him ahead of Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, and Hank Aaron.

 

I suppose we might want to hold on to him for awhile

[YAZMAN]

"He's done something Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, or Joe DiMaggio never did; Finished in the top ten for MVP voting for [nine] straight seasons."

 

I'll give Teddy Ballgame a pass on that one. He arguably spend half his prime years flying fighter planes.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Manny's career OPS (OBP + SLG) is [1.002]' date=' which is [229'] points higher than the average hitter of his time. This puts him ahead of Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, and Hank Aaron.

 

I suppose we might want to hold on to him for awhile

 

Career Fielding Runs Above Replacement Level (FRAR):

 

Willie Mays: +634

Hank Aaron: +422

Joe DiMaggio: +303

 

Manny Ramirez: -15

 

This puts him behind Willie Mays, Joe DiMaggio, and Hank Aaron. And it's not even close.

 

***

"Manny Ramirez is arguably one of the five greatest right handed hitters who ever lived."

 

I'm not saying Manny can't hit. I'm saying that Manny can't field, and that Boston already has a DH. Before the DH--and sometimes even after the DH--players like Manny didn't have the longevity of some others.

 

We'll see. Mine is a minority position: I say Manny isn't worth $20 million in 2009. Frankly, I don't think it's even close. That said, let's see if the option is exercised, and let's look at 2008 performance as a hint to which way it will go.

[soxfan17881]

This puts him behind Willie Mays' date=' Joe DiMaggio, and Hank Aaron. And it's not even close.[/quote']

 

No argument from me. I'm aware his defense blows.

[Hammer]

THE HAMMER RETURNS. Long time no speak Ham the Man' date=' how are ya?[/quote']

 

 

not bad jackson not bad!!! pretty tuff to be a fan of new england teams right now eh?

2nd WS loving cup in 3 years, heading for the big foohball game out in the dessert in january, the Big Green Machine looks like it's returning to it's glory days when Larry Legend was here and even the Bruins really don't suck like they did...

 

however, anyone that wouldn't want Manny back in 09 and on needs to lay down and take a fkn nap!

 

trust me, manny the machine will be in a sox uni for a long long time...I also believe that his days of not speaking to the media may be behind him now...

 

as an old long lost friend of mine used to say...................it's all good!!!

[Jim_Chandley]

I think you bring him back. Maybe you visit the possibility that he will sign for less if you refuse to pick up the option.

[talksox24]

Bring him back? In the blink of an eye! He should have NEVER left. It's so sad that after all Manny did for us during the last 8 years that management didn't work things out before they escalated. The atmosphere at Fenway will never be the same without Manny, there is such a void all around. Dare I mention the curse again. Manny needs to retire here, he needs to come home, we miss him so much, AMEN.

[BSN07]

Bring him back? In the blink of an eye! He should have NEVER left. It's so sad that after all Manny did for us during the last 8 years that management didn't work things out before they escalated. The atmosphere at Fenway will never be the same without Manny' date=' there is such a void all around. Dare I mention the curse again. Manny needs to retire here, he needs to come home, we miss him so much, AMEN.[/quote']

 

Your a tool. I don't even know where to start....

[Cocos Disciples]

Bring him back? In the blink of an eye! He should have NEVER left. It's so sad that after all Manny did for us during the last 8 years that management didn't work things out before they escalated. The atmosphere at Fenway will never be the same without Manny' date=' there is such a void all around. Dare I mention the curse again. Manny needs to retire here, he needs to come home, we miss him so much, AMEN.[/quote']

 

Yeah...wouldn't count on it.

[TheKilo]

How does he have 0 posts?

[Cocos Disciples]

Good question. Maybe he's a ghost.

[26 to 6]

Looks that way. I was wondering the same thing myself when i first saw his post.