Would you bring Manny back in 2009?

[TheKilo]

Is he worth $20 million a year from now?

[nateg]

His production this season sucked douchenozzle. *flaimsuit on*

[Rdsxmbnt]

Not a decision that needs to be made now, but if he is around a .900 OPS then yes.

[TheKilo]

Not a decision that needs to be made now' date=' but if he is around a .900 OPS then yes.[/quote']

 

Big if. Besides, his defense has been on a steady decline as well.

 

Also, this is closely linked to the ARod debate. We need a RH power bat in the lineup if and when Manny leaves.

 

All I know is that he wasn't close to a $20 million player this year and color me skeptical if he can return to a .900 OPS level.

[Thumper]

If we got rid of Manny, that would make room for Bonds, which would only be with us for a year. I'd rather something a little more long term, which is why I'd rather resign Manny, unless there's other good FAs out there.

[das11209]

Only if we do not get A-Rod. Considering how baseball salaries have moved up since this deal was done - it will be a bargain.

[ksushi]

No, his contract is up at the same time as Miguel Cabrera. If he doesn't get traded to a team besides the Red Sox this offseason you have to think they'll let Manny walk and try to put that money into some younger talent.

[ORS]

I don't think there's any question he's still a .900+ OPS hitter, and I think anyone who thinks he isn't is in for a nice surprise next year. If they get ARod, no you don't pick up his options. If they don't get ARod, I think you bring Manolo back. Personally, it's more fun to root for Manny, and there's less risk as '08, '09, and '10 can be taken one year at a time.

[TheKilo]

I don't think there's any question he's still a .900+ OPS hitter' date=' and I think anyone who thinks he isn't is in for a nice surprise next year.[/quote']

 

There's no doubt he has the talent to turn things around, but in all honesty I am myself very skeptical of it.

 

His bat isn't getting any quicker.

 

If they get ARod, no you don't pick up his options. If they don't get ARod, I think you bring Manolo back. Personally, it's more fun to root for Manny, and there's less risk as '08, '09, and '10 can be taken one year at a time.

 

This is a very good point. I would think the FO wants to minimize risk, and Manny's options provide that.

 

Still, I'd be interested to see how much of his offensive production is hurt by his defense.

[YAZMAN]

His production this season sucked douchenozzle. *flaimsuit on*

 

Except for when it really counted, the 2007 playoffs:

 

.348 AVE

2 doubles

4 HR's

16 RBI's

[Paradisecity]

Derek Lowe looked great in the '04 playoffs.

[TheKilo]

Except for when it really counted, the 2007 playoffs:

 

.348 AVE

2 doubles

4 HR's

16 RBI's

 

Small sample size?

[Paradisecity]

The reason we are celebrating our second title in 4 years is because management didn't get nostalgic and made less than popular moves to prevent financially crippling the team. Petey was my favorite player ever but I understood why they let him go. We fans knew Damon would kick our ass in year 1, be worth it in year 2, and by year 3 be overpaid.

 

Cabrera gets us Ellsbury, my vote for MVP. Everyone NEEDED to have Billy M back.

 

Nostalgia and complacence are what stifles organizations. This organization seems to be doing a decent job with that so far. Maybe Manny will be worth it. Maybe he won't. But I trust that this management has a plan, and I do so with good reason considering the simple fact of banners delivered.

[TheKilo]

The reason we are celebrating our second title in 4 years is because management didn't get nostalgic and made less than popular moves to prevent financially crippling the team. Petey was my favorite player ever but I understood why they let him go. We fans knew Damon would kick our ass in year 1, be worth it in year 2, and by year 3 be overpaid.

 

Cabrera gets us Ellsbury, my vote for MVP. Everyone NEEDED to have Billy M back.

 

Nostalgia and complacence are what stifles organizations. This organization seems to be doing a decent job with that so far. Maybe Manny will be worth it. Maybe he won't. But I trust that this management has a plan, and I do so with good reason considering the simple fact of banners delivered.

 

wasn't Buchholz a pick from Cabrera as well?

[VA Sox Fan]

I'm a MAJOR Manny "Homer" so I say YES, bring him back in '09!

[Cocos Disciples]

I like Manny a lot. It's really tough to make a decision right now, because you don't know who will be available for trade, and although you know who's a FA (Carl Crawford has a team option, Juan Rivera, to name a few) you don't know who'll be resigned. You don't know who steps up in the minors next year, and most of all, you don't know how Manny will do.

[BoSox21]

I don't see how you forecast this now. Who knows what the roster will look like after next season, who will be available via trade or free agency, etc.

[TheKilo]

I don't see how you forecast this now. Who knows what the roster will look like after next season' date=' who will be available via trade or free agency, etc.[/quote']

 

Really?

 

If you don't think Manny will be around for the 2009 season, you go get ARod because there won't be an elite RH power bat available.

 

If you think Manny comes back, you can forgo signing ARod.

 

It's not rocket science, people. Believe it or not, the FO does make decisions taking two, three seasons from now into effect.

[riverside sluggers]

If Theo has been looking to unload manny since he took office, hard to say he would activate the $20 million option

[soxfan17881]

I think it would be totally dependent on whom we were to pick up. For instance, if we were to sign A-Rod (which I do not think will happen) then we would not need Manny. If we replace that bat with another that is even 75% as good, but can also defend? Eh...Maybe.

 

And as long as someone brought him up, let me also add that the whole "Manny Being Manny" thing has worn thin, too. I'm tired of wondering if he's going to hustle on any given day. I'm tired of his Dominican Rain Man interviews. And mostly, I am tired...no...scratch that. I'm SICK AND TIRED, of that dumb-ass hairdo and the how his cap and batting helmet don't fit him. I can't stand the goofy rag he has to wear to keep it all harnessed (even the blue one with the "B" on it.) I can't stand the way he pushes the damn thing off his head when he's rounding third and the way he smirks when he does, like he's on SNL doing a skit instead of trying to score a freakin' run!

 

OK. Now I'm calm again...

 

Still love the guy, overall. Love it when he's at the plate. But he is not nearly as necessary an asset as he once was.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Let's check Manny's Zone Rating...we'll use RZR:

 

2004 .578

2005 .527

2006 .643

2007 .684

 

On the bright side, like a fine wine, Manny's defense seems to improve with age.

 

On the down side, like Boone's Farm, aside from its being worth a few giggles among friends it's really pretty bad if you evaluate it objectively.

 

Per THT, 16 MLB players qualified for consideration as full-time left fielders in 2007. Fifteen of those players had RZRs ranging from .923 (Eric Byrnes) to .803 (Pat Burrell). Manny's .684 RZR was further below the next-to-worst fielder's RZR than that player's RZR was below the leader's. Manny has been worst in MLB for three consecutive years; only Adam Dunn and Miggy Cabrera have come close to Manny's ineptitude in that time. Pat Burrell and, especially, Barry Bonds are comfortably better than Manny in the outfield.

 

Do I want Manny at his option price in 2009? Only as a DH. Because that would mean that Big Papi had been traded or that he'd suffered a terrible setback as a player, I'm hoping that there won't be a role for Manny in 2009 on the Red Sox, unless he's willing to come back to Boston for far less than his option price and play as a starter in Fenway and a fourth OF/PH on the road.

[ksushi]

Really?

 

If you don't think Manny will be around for the 2009 season, you go get ARod because there won't be an elite RH power bat available.

 

 

Miguel Cabrera will be on the market. The chances of the Marlins re-upping with him are slimmer than the chances of the Yankees re-upping with A-rod now that hes opted out. If he isn't an elite RH power bat, no one is.

 

Carl Crawford will more than likely be on the market especially if Baldelli shows signs of coming back to form. They'd probably opt not to pay him when they can still field a speedy and powerful outfield without him since they will still have Young, Rocco and Upton out there.

 

If you think Manny comes back, you can forgo signing ARod.

 

If we don't sign A-rod it probably just means that the Sox didn't think Boras is coming off of 30 Mil a year, and won't overpay. I don't think that having A-rod means we have to get rid of Manny or not pick up his option years.

 

I think if Boras finds out that teams aren't too anxious to part with 30+ million every year to have ARod and he might be signed for something like 20-25 with some kind of ridiculous incentives to do with the HR chase and MVP awards maybe the Sox would put in a legitimate bid. If they were to reel him in, I could see a Sox team with Manny and A-rod together even with Manny's option years.

 

Our pitching is cheap for the moment. Buchholz will make peanuts. Beckett is paid far below market value. Lester makes nothing, so does Papelbon, MDC, Okajima. DiceK doesn't even make very much annually - 8 mil, but obviously we shelled out quite a bit to talk to him in the first place so its silly to act like he isn't a high priced commodity. Point is though, our pitching is cheap enough for us to pay top dollar for the top hitters in the league.

 

It's not rocket science, people. Believe it or not, the FO does make decisions taking two, three seasons from now into effect.

 

Yeah, we'd been scouting Lugo and Coco for a whole season before we signed/traded for them. Clearly, we're really on our game when it comes to planning a few seasons ahead.

 

 

Honestly, I think Mannys best chance of being in a Sox uniform past the guarenteed years of his contract are if we ink someone like A-rod, or trade for someone like Cabrera if Mike Lowell opts not to come back. That would take the pressure off Manny to be the "bad motherf***er" hes been pre-07 and just be Manny. Hit .290 - .300+ send 20 - 30 into the bleachers and drive in 90-100+. Good year, but not vintage Manny. If we had an A-rod or a Cabrera we can get by with any manny that manny is gonna be.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Hit .290 - .300+ send 20 - 30 into the bleachers and drive in 90-100+. Good year' date=' but not vintage Manny. [/quote']

 

You know that Manny's .296/.388/.493 batting line this year, with only 20 HR, not only missed his 2007 projections but also didn't reach his 2011 PECOTA projection?

 

There may be some serious issues, perhaps with his knees.

[YAZMAN]

Small sample size?

 

Highlights

 

• All-time post-season home run leader (24)
  
• Tied with Pete Rose for longest LCS hitting streak (15)
  
• 11-time All-Star (1995, 1998-2007)
  
• 2-Time World Series Champion (Boston, 2004, 2007)
  
• World Series MVP Award (2004)
  
• 2-time Hank Aaron Award (1999, 2004)
  
• 8-time Silver Slugger Award (1995, 1999-2006)
  
• American League batting crown (2002, .349)
  
• Led AL in home runs (2004, 43)
  
• Led AL in RBI (1999, 165)
  
• 3-time led AL in slugging percentage (1999-2000, 2004)
  
• 3-time led AL in OPS (1999-2000, 2004)
  
• 3-time led AL in on base percentage (2002-03, 2006)
  
• Twice led AL in intentional walks (2001, 2003)
  
• 8-time Top 10 AL in total bases (1996-99, 2001,2003-05)
  
• 8-time Top 10 AL MVP (1998-2004)
  
• 9-time Top 10 AL in home runs (1998-2006)
  
• 8-time Top 10 AL in RBI (1995, 1998, 1999-2001, 2004, 2005)
  
• 5-time Top 10 AL hitters (1997, 1999-2000, 2003, 2006)
  
• 6-time Top 10 AL in times on base (1997, 1999, 2003-05)
  
• Member of Major League Baseball's Latino Legends Team
  
• 28-game hitting streak in 2006

Miscellaneous statistics and facts

 

• Career rankings among active players and on the All-Time lists
  • .313 batting average - 7th and 80th
    
  • 490 home runs - 7th and 26th
    
  • 1602 RBI - 5th and 28th
    
  • .409 on base percentage - 7th and 37th
    
  • .593 slugging average - 3rd and 8th
    
  • 977 extra base hits - 7th and 32nd
    
  • 1.002 OPS - 4th and 10th
    
  • 167 intentional walks - 5th and 26th
    
  • 20 grand slams - 1st and 2nd
    
  • 24 post season home runs - 1st

Plus, he's a "clutch" player!

*ducks to avoid thrown calculators*

[ORS]

Let's check Manny's Zone Rating...we'll use RZR:

 

2004 .578

2005 .527

2006 .643

2007 .684

 

On the bright side, like a fine wine, Manny's defense seems to improve with age.

 

On the down side, like Boone's Farm, aside from its being worth a few giggles among friends it's really pretty bad if you evaluate it objectively.

 

Per THT, 16 MLB players qualified for consideration as full-time left fielders in 2007. Fifteen of those players had RZRs ranging from .923 (Eric Byrnes) to .803 (Pat Burrell). Manny's .684 RZR was further below the next-to-worst fielder's RZR than that player's RZR was below the leader's. Manny has been worst in MLB for three consecutive years; only Adam Dunn and Miggy Cabrera have come close to Manny's ineptitude in that time. Pat Burrell and, especially, Barry Bonds are comfortably better than Manny in the outfield.

 

Do I want Manny at his option price in 2009? Only as a DH. Because that would mean that Big Papi had been traded or that he'd suffered a terrible setback as a player, I'm hoping that there won't be a role for Manny in 2009 on the Red Sox, unless he's willing to come back to Boston for far less than his option price and play as a starter in Fenway and a fourth OF/PH on the road.

RZR assigns every wall-ball to Manny's zone. It's a completely unrealistic chance. Not saying Manny isn't bad, but he's not 11% worse than Pat Burrell.

[TheKilo]

Highlights

 

• All-time post-season home run leader (24)
  
• Tied with Pete Rose for longest LCS hitting streak (15)
  
• 11-time All-Star (1995, 1998-2007)
  
• 2-Time World Series Champion (Boston, 2004, 2007)
  
• World Series MVP Award (2004)
  
• 2-time Hank Aaron Award (1999, 2004)
  
• 8-time Silver Slugger Award (1995, 1999-2006)
  
• American League batting crown (2002, .349)
  
• Led AL in home runs (2004, 43)
  
• Led AL in RBI (1999, 165)
  
• 3-time led AL in slugging percentage (1999-2000, 2004)
  
• 3-time led AL in OPS (1999-2000, 2004)
  
• 3-time led AL in on base percentage (2002-03, 2006)
  
• Twice led AL in intentional walks (2001, 2003)
  
• 8-time Top 10 AL in total bases (1996-99, 2001,2003-05)
  
• 8-time Top 10 AL MVP (1998-2004)
  
• 9-time Top 10 AL in home runs (1998-2006)
  
• 8-time Top 10 AL in RBI (1995, 1998, 1999-2001, 2004, 2005)
  
• 5-time Top 10 AL hitters (1997, 1999-2000, 2003, 2006)
  
• 6-time Top 10 AL in times on base (1997, 1999, 2003-05)
  
• Member of Major League Baseball's Latino Legends Team
  
• 28-game hitting streak in 2006

Miscellaneous statistics and facts

 

• Career rankings among active players and on the All-Time lists
  • .313 batting average - 7th and 80th
    
  • 490 home runs - 7th and 26th
    
  • 1602 RBI - 5th and 28th
    
  • .409 on base percentage - 7th and 37th
    
  • .593 slugging average - 3rd and 8th
    
  • 977 extra base hits - 7th and 32nd
    
  • 1.002 OPS - 4th and 10th
    
  • 167 intentional walks - 5th and 26th
    
  • 20 grand slams - 1st and 2nd
    
  • 24 post season home runs - 1st

Plus, he's a "clutch" player!

*ducks to avoid thrown calculators*

 

Ok, so we want to pay him $20 million in 2008 based on what he's done from 1993-2007? Brilliant.

 

Do you think he's the same player he was in the late 90s/early 00s?

[TheKilo]

Miguel Cabrera will be on the market. The chances of the Marlins re-upping with him are slimmer than the chances of the Yankees re-upping with A-rod now that hes opted out. If he isn't an elite RH power bat' date=' no one is. [/quote']

 

The chances of him re-upping are slim, yes. The chances of him being traded are much, much higher.

 

This is what the Marlins do. Stockpile good young talent, ship out before they get too expensive. Unless you want to see Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz gone, I don't see how Cabrera becomes a Red Sox.

 

Carl Crawford will more than likely be on the market especially if Baldelli shows signs of coming back to form. They'd probably opt not to pay him when they can still field a speedy and powerful outfield without him since they will still have Young, Rocco and Upton out there.

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Crawford hits left-handed for one second, how confident do you think the Rays are that Baldelli will be back? Dude is made of glass.

 

Besides, the Rays are on the cusp of being a very competitive team (1-2 years away). I doubt they let their best player walk via FA.

 

 

If we don't sign A-rod it probably just means that the Sox didn't think Boras is coming off of 30 Mil a year, and won't overpay. I don't think that having A-rod means we have to get rid of Manny or not pick up his option years.

 

I do think that if the Sox make a play for ARod, then it makes Manny expendable either this offseason or the next. You want to spend $20 mil on Manny in $30 mil on ARod in '09?

 

If the team gets ARod, Manny is gone, IMO.

 

I think if Boras finds out that teams aren't too anxious to part with 30+ million every year to have ARod and he might be signed for something like 20-25 with some kind of ridiculous incentives to do with the HR chase and MVP awards maybe the Sox would put in a legitimate bid. If they were to reel him in, I could see a Sox team with Manny and A-rod together even with Manny's option years.

 

Upwards of $45 million tied to two players. And you're the one who complains about the $9 million Lugo makes?

 

Our pitching is cheap for the moment. Buchholz will make peanuts. Beckett is paid far below market value. Lester makes nothing, so does Papelbon, MDC, Okajima. DiceK doesn't even make very much annually - 8 mil, but obviously we shelled out quite a bit to talk to him in the first place so its silly to act like he isn't a high priced commodity. Point is though, our pitching is cheap enough for us to pay top dollar for the top hitters in the league.

 

If you want Cabrera, you'll part with some of that pitching. And since more teams are signing their big name players to longer deals, tell me, who are the top hitters hitting the market anytime soon?

 

Yeah, we'd been scouting Lugo and Coco for a whole season before we signed/traded for them. Clearly, we're really on our game when it comes to planning a few seasons ahead.

 

We were also scouting Lowell. How'd that work out?

 

Honestly, I think Mannys best chance of being in a Sox uniform past the guarenteed years of his contract are if we ink someone like A-rod, or trade for someone like Cabrera if Mike Lowell opts not to come back. That would take the pressure off Manny to be the "bad motherf***er" hes been pre-07 and just be Manny. Hit .290 - .300+ send 20 - 30 into the bleachers and drive in 90-100+. Good year, but not vintage Manny. If we had an A-rod or a Cabrera we can get by with any manny that manny is gonna be.

 

If Manny is going to continue to be as bad as he is defensively, that line is not worth $20 million.

[Jayhawk Bill]

RZR assigns every wall-ball to Manny's zone. It's a completely unrealistic chance. Not saying Manny isn't bad' date=' but he's not 11% worse than Pat Burrell.[/quote']

 

Well, not EVERY wall ball...just those that land where a left fielder could be expected to field them. Yes, the wall is a factor; no, it's not everything.

 

Let's see what the guru of UZR, MGL, has to say on the issue:

 

I know exactly what you mean about Fenway. My park factor for LF at Fenway is perfectly adequate in the long run. I simply divide everyone's catch rate in LF at Fenway by .82 or so. In the short run, that is not correct of course, but in the long run when everyone has around the same distribution of balls hit near them in LF at Fenway, it is perfectly adequate to do it that way. Not to mention that Ramirez' road UZR is just as bad as his park adjusted home UZR.

 

There are a few nutty individuals, no names mentioned, who seem to be on a Quixotic quest to prove that Manny is not a terrible OF'er.

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/mgl_uzr_2007_notable_fielders/

 

Bold added.

 

UZR is a ZR-based stat--the Fenway Park Factor should hold true. Let's use 0.82 and proceed from there.

 

At best, you could divide Manny's RZR by (1.82/2), or 0.91, to get a best-case approximation of his ability. That would be an RZR of .752 in 2007, still a whopping 51 RZR points below Pat Burrell's anemic .803.

 

My perception is that the Green Monster has little adverse effect on Manny: he knows how to adjust his position to allow himself not to be constrained in his range by the wall, while visiting outfielders are less savvy and suffer more.

[example1]

RZR assigns every wall-ball to Manny's zone. It's a completely unrealistic chance. Not saying Manny isn't bad' date=' but he's not 11% worse than Pat Burrell.[/quote']

 

That's what I was going to say too. Don't all the balls that don't 'land' in LF impact his ZR? Apparently the answer was yes, which explains why Manny's ZR appears to be roughly that of the two-peg-legged pirate from Family Guy, despite his improvement.

[Jayhawk Bill]

That's what I was going to say too. Don't all the balls that don't 'land' in LF impact his ZR? Apparently the answer was yes' date=' which explains why Manny's ZR appears to be roughly that of the two-peg-legged pirate from Family Guy, despite his improvement.[/quote']

 

My post immediately preceding yours estimates the effect of Park Factor.

 

Does it matter? Sure--but it matters less for slower outfielders such as Manny who can't cover that much ground anyway, it matters less if one knows Fenway Park, and it doesn't matter enough in any case to make up more than half of the difference between Manny and Pat Burrell, the next-to-last defensive LF in MLB.