Player Values and A-Rod's Value to the Sox

[example1]

Okay, I think it's time to put our prediction hats on, take out our calculators, and see if we can figure out how the Sox will decide if, or how much to offer Alex Rodriguez should he become available.

 

I'm interested in seeing if people have ideas about what stats the Sox will use to ultimately make this decision. It's not simply a matter of replacing OBP or replacing SLG or HR or filling a particular spot on the field. For the Sox (and all teams, actually) A-Rod has a specific value. He IS the best play on the planet, but his numbers--while all-time best--are not an infinite value better than other available players.

 

VORP and WARP: I propose looking at Value over Replacement Player and Wins above Replacement Player to figure this out. Perhaps there are better statistics but these seem pretty solid and give a nice picture of overall value to one's team relative to other players in the league.

 

Here are his VORPs the last 5 years

 

2007: 96.6

2006: 51.6

2005: 91.0

2004: 52.3

2003: 87.9

-----------

AVG: 75.8

 

--(this year Mike Lowell had a 46.5 VORP)

--A-Rod's career seasonal average WARP (wins above replacement) of 8.8.

--Mike Lowell's career seasonal average WARP is 5.9

 

I can conclude from these numbers alone that A-Rod is considerably more valuable than Mike Lowell, by up to three wins a season--on average. That is a pretty significant number, if you look at the standings and how close many of these teams are.

 

In terms of VORP, A-Rod has averaged a season roughly equivalent to Matt Holliday's season this year for the past 5 seasons--most of them as a 3B. He's somewhere in the vicinity of David Ortiz, except that he plays in the field in some valuable positions to add to his value.

---------------------

 

So, little thought experiment aside, how valuable does that make A-Rod? In the book "Baseball Between the Numbers" there is a very interesting chapter about how the financial value of a player is directly proportional to his potential team's expected (and previous) success. In other words, the value of a player like A-Rod on a club like the Royals, or Devil Rays probably isn't too high because those teams have so few wins that his additional, say, 5 wins per season won't push them into the playoffs, where the real money is made. I think the Sox use tools like these to reach their "max value" for a player and they tend to stick to those numbers pretty strongly.

 

Likewise, A-Rod's value to a team like Milwaukee, Detroit, NYM, Seattle, Cleveland, Phillies, etc., might be higher because the wins he gives them could push their pre-existing teams over the edge into a continued run of playoff appearances, which is where the big money is made.

 

So, where does that put the Sox? I think his value would be high for the Sox as he would essentially replace the production from Manny, which has been a HUGE part of the Sox making the playoffs three of the past four seasons and the metioric rise of Red Sox nation to the status--and financial success--that it is today.

 

The Sox very well could make a big run at A-Rod because he is one of the few players who will ensure that they retain their place at the top of baseball. I simply do not see them pushing 30m a year for a player who is NOT almost 3 times better (more valuable) than David Ortiz, but if A-Rod finds the market for 30m players to be less than he thought, a heavily incentivized contract might make sense and be the best that Boras can find; particularly if A-Rod feels his bridges have been burned in NY.

 

 

Overall, however, perhaps the best-case scenario for the Sox is to resign Lowell while A-Rod leaves the Yankees for NL/non-AL-East competition. That saves the most money and leaves open the option of (gasp!) picking up Manny's options moving forward at a 50% A-Rod cost, moving Manny, or signing someone else in the next few years.

[LUGOforMVP]

I think it's going to come down to the Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers for A-Rod. Those teams can afford him (but will they?), and the L.A. teams need a 3B.

 

I think A-Rod to the Dodgers makes too much sense to actually happen. They need a big bat AND a third baseman.

 

With Bonds leaving, SF will be looking for something to fill the seats, and could be a darkhorse. Depends on how much A-Rod cares about playing for a losing team.

[BoSox21]

don't need weird stats to tell me that A-Rod is more productive than Mike Lowell. there's also no stat that shows the effect A-Rod would have on the rest of the lineup, such as the type of pitches Papi or Ortiz would see

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I'd be curious to see how surrounding players VORP or WARP change when A-Rod joins the team. I wouldn't be suprised if a good majority of them drop.

[TheKilo]

I'd be curious to see how surrounding players VORP or WARP change when A-Rod joins the team. I wouldn't be suprised if a good majority of them drop.

 

 

I don't know about that, aren't VORP and WARP mostly independent stats? IOW, doesn't the player have all of the control of the inputs to those stats?

 

I would even argue in the reverse, having ARod on the team would offer guys like Ortiz and Ramirez even more chances to drive in runs, etc. Adding ARod would result in more wins, but I don't think he'd take away the performance for others.

[BrentD22]

With our payroll we should make the play-offs every year. If we make the play-offs and our highest paid player can't put out then whats the point?

[TheKilo]

With our payroll we should make the play-offs every year. If we make the play-offs and our highest paid player can't put out then whats the point?

 

So you're saying ARod is not clutch?

[YAZMAN]

First off, let me precede any point I make by saying I hate Payrod, I can't stand looking at the self-centered, pussified excuse of a man.

 

Does he have talent? Yes, maybe more than anybody else playing the game right now. But that's all he has. What he doesn't have is balls, the desire for his team to win so badly that he excels in the biggest situations. If he really just wanted to win then how the hell did he wind up in Texas in the first place? Sure he puts up numbers, but it's about him and him alone. Regular season numbers are great but it's all just a qualifier for the playoffs, the real games, the reason they're playing in the first place. When talk of his career comes up, ask Bucky f***ing Dent what people want to talk about.

 

We don't need a lineup full of superstars, look where that's gotten the Y*nkees in the last dozen years. Their previous success? It came from solid players with balls like Paul O'Neill and role players with bigger ball like Scott Brosius complementing the marquee players forming a solid team - success together, each feeding off the other.

 

Screw Payfraud and the antithesis of everything that is baseball, the deceiver Scott Boras. Resign Lowell and Manny. Save the rest to sign Papelbon, and then Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury or whatever holes wind up not filled. You know it won't be cheap, and with Gayrod's contract exceeding some team's payrolls you couldn't do it all with him around.

 

If there's one thing we should have learned following 2004, it wasn't that we could get the job done. It's that you can't f*** with the chemistry of a successful team too much and stay viable - the current Y*nks of the past half dozen years solidify that point.

 

Maybe Minaya will sign him and trade Reyes for some pitching so they can take the NL next year. I've been patiently waiting 20 years to revenge 1986.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v495/BoNeato/ArodHamburgerHelper.jpg

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v495/BoNeato/pay-rodchop.bmp

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v495/BoNeato/gayrod.jpg

[TheKilo]

First off' date=' let me precede any point I make by saying I hate Payrod, I can't stand looking at the self-centered, pussified excuse of a man.[/quote']

 

The fact you call him "Payrod" suggests some kind of negative bias towards him, and I'm sure later on in your post you will call him "unclutch", "selfish", or some other terms similar to that.

 

Does he have talent? Yes, maybe more than anybody else playing the game right now. But that's all he has.

 

This is true...so why would you be opposed to someone that talented on your team?

 

What he doesn't have is balls, the desire for his team to win so badly that he excels in the biggest situations.

 

Oh goody, the unclutch argument. How exactly do you measure "balls"? Did Keith Foulke have them?

 

I bet you loved Trot Nixon and hate JD Drew for this exact reason. Would you like Paul O'Neill if the Sox signed him?

 

If he really just wanted to win then how the hell did he wind up in Texas in the first place?

 

They offered him the most money for his performance on the field. Are you saying ARod is a bad person for taking the best offer given to him?

 

Sure he puts up numbers, but it's about him and him alone.

 

Most player's stats are.

 

Regular season numbers are great but it's all just a qualifier for the playoffs, the real games, the reason they're playing in the first place. When talk of his career comes up, ask Bucky f***ing Dent what people want to talk about.

 

Oh boy. Here we go. Are you really telling me that Bucky Dent had more desire to win than Arod? Are you telling me they're even remotely comparable players? You shouldn't be because the answer is a resounding NO. ARod will probably go down as one of the top 5 players in the game's history, but because he doesn't have the "balls" he can never be great?

 

Was it ARod's fault CMW sucked in two games this postseason? How about Posada hitting .001? How about Jeter making 17 outs in 17 PAs?

 

How about in '05 when Randy Johnson got lit up in the Brawnx? How about when the entire offense, not just ARod, took a vacation in the Detroit series?

 

Do me a favor and look up ARod's postseaon stats pre-2004.

 

We don't need a lineup full of superstars, look where that's gotten the Y*nkees in the last dozen years.

 

I would contend we are pretty damn close to having a lineup of superstars. I think the Yanks have done just fine over the last dozen years, maybe you mean since 2000?

 

Their previous success? It came from solid players with balls like Paul O'Neill and role players with bigger ball like Scott Brosius complementing the marquee players forming a solid team - success together, each feeding off the other.

 

Negative, it came from a solid offense and an otherworldly pitching staff. The Yanks haven't come close to matching those staffs except for maybe 2003, when they made it to the WS and just got beaten by a better Marlins team.

 

Are you telling me Scott Brosius is a better player than ARod?

 

 

Screw Payfraud and the antithesis of everything that is baseball, the deceiver Scott Boras.

 

I don't like Boras either, but how is ARod the "antithesis" of baseball? Seems to me he's one of the best talents in the game and one of the better things the game has going for it.

 

Resign Lowell and Manny.

 

FTR this is what I want them to do.

 

Save the rest to sign Papelbon, and then Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury or whatever holes wind up not filled.

 

I believe these players are tied up for the next five or six years before they become arbitration eligible. Someone else can look up those numbers but I don't think we have to worry about breaking the bank on them for a while.

 

You know it won't be cheap, and with Gayrod's contract exceeding some team's payrolls you couldn't do it all with him around.

 

This is actually a good point. Committing so much to ARod would give the Sox serious lack of payroll flexibility. But that doesn't mean I would hate having him on the team, seeing as he is one of the all time greats.

 

If there's one thing we should have learned following 2004, it wasn't that we could get the job done. It's that you can't f*** with the chemistry of a successful team too much and stay viable - the current Y*nks of the past half dozen years solidify that point.

 

Winning breeds good chemistry. 2004's team doesn't have great chemistry if they do not beat the Yankees and win the WS. If chemistry is so important why don't we trade Lugo and cut Mirabelli and sign guys like Eckstein and Lo Duca?

 

Maybe Minaya will sign him and trade Reyes for some pitching so they can take the NL next year. I've been patiently waiting 20 years to revenge 1986.

 

Minaya needs to sign pitching before he worries about ARod.

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v495/BoNeato/ArodHamburgerHelper.jpg

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v495/BoNeato/pay-rodchop.bmp

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v495/BoNeato/gayrod.jpg

 

The pics are cute.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Would he help the team?...sure he would.

Can we win without him?...absolutly.

Do we need A-Rod?....no we don't.

 

So either way I think we have a competitive team but I would rather root for the Red Sox without Alex Rodriguez.

[TheKilo]

Would he help the team?...sure he would.

Can we win without him?...absolutly.

Do we need A-Rod?....no we don't.

 

So either way I think we have a competitive team but I would rather root for the Red Sox without Alex Rodriguez.

 

Would our chances of winning increase with him on the team?

[example1]

I'd be curious to see how surrounding players VORP or WARP change when A-Rod joins the team. I wouldn't be suprised if a good majority of them drop.

 

I'm pretty sure that TheKilo is right. VORP does not count defense, and it is a measurement of a players additional value to a team comprised solely of league average players (in all categories). Therefore, using VORP (via Runs Created forumula based on the teams runs scored and runs allowed stats) gives you any players added value independent of those around them.

 

There probably are stats you could use that take other players into account, but VORP isn't one of them. I think it is pretty easy to say that having more men on base increases the opportunity to create runs and to drive them in, as well as other things such as getting better pitches and being able to work more walks.

 

I want someone to prove to me why it is at all reasonable to think that players get WORSE around A-Rod, or why they believe that A-Rod can't perform in the clutch.

 

In fact, to take it a step further, simply prove that clutch hitting exists in any significant way and I will quickly say "A-Rod hasn't produced in the past, so he isn't likely to in the future".

 

The problem that this post gets at is that the Red Sox are going to be without Manny most likely following next year. He is getting older, his contract is expiring and his production has started to diminish somewhat (if only in the number of games played). So the question is who replaces him. A-Rod is the guy the Sox have had their eyes on since 2003 and have shown that they are willing to move Manny to make it happen.

 

If not A-Rod this year then who afterwards? What is more valuable to the Sox front office right now? Money or prospects? It would undoubtedly cost them serious prospects to get--say--Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins.

 

It's fine to dislike A-Rod. There are things about him that are dislikeable. You shouldn't assume that just because he is personally distasteful that the FO isn't licking their chops thinking about adding his production for the next few years. They are certainly doing the calculations about his value and true worth.

[example1]

Would our chances of winning increase with him on the team?

 

I think that's the point TheKilo. It is very hard to measure, but my guess is that the Sox will look at this based on WARP and VORP and consider:

 

Schilling will not be adding to the VORP/WARP totals (perhaps balanced by Buchholz's rise)

Manny will not be adding to the VORP/WARP totals (not balanced by anything)

Lowell will not be adding to the VORP/WARP totals (and if he does it will be for 10-12m a year as he ages)

 

So, are a diminished Manny and Lowell plus Buchholz equal to current Manny and Lowell plus Schilling? How much can we reasonably expect from Mike Lowell? If he does this 25HR/115 RBI thing for the next few years then it is a no-brainer. However, if he's insisting on 4-5 years at a rate reasonably expect for those numbers and the Sox FO doesn't have confidence that he can keep it up, then he will be moving on. Then it becomes an issue of replacing either your 3B or 1B. I don't see great 1B options available, and the best player in history is available at 3B. I don't think people should be shocked if we go for him.

 

Don't get too mad at Boras folks. He's not a lot of fun to deal with, and his greed makes all of us look bad as baseball fans, but honestly, can any of us blame him for squeezing all the money out of these teams? When you have a player like Dice-K or A-Rod who singlehandedly sells tickets, don't they deserve a fair share of the sales? Actors and actresses get paid millions of dollars for movies, because they are the main event in the movie. The same is true of A-Rod.

 

Consider that A-Rod's asking price--say 300m over 10 years--is roughly what Oprah makes in one year (she made something like 250m last year). She earns that because she does what nobody else can do--get viewers consistently--and A-Rod does what other players can't do (though he is more closely rivaled and that is reflected by the fact that other players have enormous contracts as well). The question is whether what he can do is valuable enough for the Red Sox to make that investment for the next--say--8 years.

 

My gut tells me they will participate in driving up the price with a 'reasonable' offer in the 23m range, but they won't go to the mat with Boras. My gut also tells me that without A-Rod this Yankee team becomes much less formidable, and with Pettitte and Posada and Rivera also looking around at other teams, the loss of A-rod would be the definitive end of an era in NY. Good riddance!!

[RedSoxRooter]

Would he help the team?...sure he would.

Can we win without him?...absolutly.

Do we need A-Rod?....no we don't.

 

So either way I think we have a competitive team but I would rather root for the Red Sox without Alex Rodriguez.

 

Amen, brother. Amen.

[Mr Crunchy]

i think what yaz was trying to point out is that #s lie and arod comes with a certain harbinger of misery to those who play along side him

this isnt my opinion rather an overall assessment to how players and teams reacted on the field and in the press

the only yank who rallied for arod was f***ing reggie

the man won an mvp and was booed by his home fans and humiliated in last years playoff be hitting 8th....the ny papers crucified him in the spring over the stripper and if he didnt have 2 of the 3 best months ive ever seen in april and june it wouldve continued..

why put up with that ********?

the yanks are no closer than the angels for a title these days and the cubs arent satisfied with soriano being their face either

the sox are in this thing as well so it will get interesting for sure with lowell sitting back and reaping the after shock

[YAZMAN]

Did Keith Foulke have them?

 

He did when we needed him to, he'll be remebered more for the Fall of '04 than the abortion that was his last year in Boston.

 

I bet you loved Trot Nixon and hate JD Drew for this exact reason. Would you like Paul O'Neill if the Sox signed him?

 

No, O'Neill is too old.:harhar:

 

FTR, I didn't want Drew either.

 

They offered him the most money for his performance on the field. Are you saying ARod is a bad person for taking the best offer given to him?

 

No, I'm saying he's a fraud for it. He's a bad person for doing things like running around on his wife with a silicon infested douchebag of a bleach blonde.

 

ARod will probably go down as one of the top 5 players in the game's history' date=' but because he doesn't have the "balls" he can never be great?[/quote']

 

He will always be remembered as a playoff failure, the guy without the ring. That's why he should go hide on another low teir team. He can be 'the man', put up huge numbers, and never have to worry about taking a really crucial at bat.

 

Was it ARod's fault CMW sucked in two games this postseason? How about Posada hitting .001? How about Jeter making 17 outs in 17 PAs?

 

They're not looking to sign for the GNP of a third world nation.

 

I think the Yanks have done just fine over the last dozen years' date=' maybe you mean since 2000?[/quote']

 

Of course I forgot to type "half" in front of "dozen".

 

Are you telling me Scott Brosius is a better player than ARod?

 

Don't ask me, ask any Y*ankee who played in October with both of them.

 

I don't like Boras either' date=' but how is ARod the "antithesis" of baseball? Seems to me he's one of the best talents in the game and one of the better things the game has going for it.[/quote']

 

Arod isn't, Boras is. Reread the sentence "Screw Payfraud and the antithesis of everything that is baseball, the deceiver Scott Boras."

 

Actually, I found it to be quite eloquently written.

 

FTR this is what I want them to do.

 

I know you want them to sign Lowell and Manny. I also knew going in that you would respond point by point to my rant. Using statistical analysis, the argument to sign ARod is a no-brainer and can be backed up in a myriad of manners. But statistics are like bikinis, what they reveal is suggestive but what they hide is crucial.

 

I believe these players are tied up for the next five or six years before they become arbitration eligible. Someone else can look up those numbers but I don't think we have to worry about breaking the bank on them for a while.

 

Exactly, and Bor-ass wants ten years. So in the last half of that surely bloated contract, you lose half your team because you can't afford them. But that's OK because ARod may or may not be chasing the HR record.

 

This is actually a good point.

 

There was bound to be one hiding in there somewhere.

 

Winning breeds good chemistry. 2004's team doesn't have great chemistry if they do not beat the Yankees and win the WS. If chemistry is so important why don't we trade Lugo and cut Mirabelli and sign guys like Eckstein and Lo Duca?

 

We did send Belli packing. Surely you remember what happened, ending with him being escorted back to the field by the Mass State Police in a caravan for Wake's start.

 

 

 

Minaya needs to sign pitching before he worries about ARod.

 

Minaya is nuts, likes to be the center of attention, gets caught up in all this ********, and potentially could get better pitching by dangling Reyes than trying to sign one of this year's free agent pitchers.

 

 

 

The pics are cute.

 

Thanks. I don't think the Hamburger Helper guy gets nearly enough press these days.

 

Look, I hate the f***ing ******* and don't want to see him be a Red Sox player. Is it based on numbers or performance? Hell no. It's based on close to 40 years as a Sox fan and all that comes with that, the disappointment of '75, the summer of '78 which destroyed my childhood culminating with the afterschool elinination game...ah, f*** it, I just hate ARod.

[Mr Crunchy]

i'll take him

despite his image consultants,beauticians and manicurists and the wife with the f*** you t shirt on he can still play.

that said

you cannot justify his post season #s

its not justifiable in any way shape or form

 

this mans defining moment came monday when paul byrd k's his ass on 3 straight belt high pitches that never topped 86mph in the 1st inning with 2 guys on base..

the batting version of raja clemens if you will

 

it was almost predictable as well as humorous

[TheKilo]

He did when we needed him to' date=' he'll be remebered more for the Fall of '04 than the abortion that was his last year in Boston.[/quote']

 

What about his "Johnny from Burger King" comments or the fact that all he cared about was getting paid?

 

 

No, O'Neill is too old.:harhar:

 

FTR, I didn't want Drew either.

 

Fair enough, who did you want playing RF?

 

No, I'm saying he's a fraud for it. He's a bad person for doing things like running around on his wife with a silicon infested douchebag of a bleach blonde.

 

Can't argue there, he's made lots of questionable decisions.

 

He will always be remembered as a playoff failure, the guy without the ring. That's why he should go hide on another low teir team. He can be 'the man', put up huge numbers, and never have to worry about taking a really crucial at bat.

 

Isn't baseball a team sport though? Is it all Arod's fault that the Yanks didn't win since he got there? I think most of the blame should lie with Cashman and the way the team was constructed.

 

ARod hasn't been good the last 3.5 postseasons. He was monstrous before then.

 

 

Don't ask me, ask any Y*ankee who played in October with both of them.

 

It's a stretch to say Brosius is a better player because of one October series. It does warm my heart though to see Jeter still living off of big hits that Brosius and O'Neill hit.

 

 

 

Arod isn't, Boras is. Reread the sentence "Screw Payfraud and the antithesis of everything that is baseball, the deceiver Scott Boras."

 

Actually, I found it to be quite eloquently written.

 

My mistake.

 

I know you want them to sign Lowell and Manny. I also knew going in that you would respond point by point to my rant. Using statistical analysis, the argument to sign ARod is a no-brainer and can be backed up in a myriad of manners. But statistics are like bikinis, what they reveal is suggestive but what they hide is crucial.

 

Again, I agree. The stats say that ARod would be a solid contributor to any team, however the financial inflexibility it causes will cripple whoever wants to sign him.

 

 

Exactly, and Bor-ass wants ten years. So in the last half of that surely bloated contract, you lose half your team because you can't afford them. But that's OK because ARod may or may not be chasing the HR record.

 

Meh, we'll have to see...a lot of the guys playing now won't be on the team then.

 

 

We did send Belli packing. Surely you remember what happened, ending with him being escorted back to the field by the Mass State Police in a caravan for Wake's start.

 

That's not my point, my point was that winning breeds good chemistry and not the other way around.

 

 

 

 

 

Minaya is nuts, likes to be the center of attention, gets caught up in all this ********, and potentially could get better pitching by dangling Reyes than trying to sign one of this year's free agent pitchers.

 

Good point, the FA class for pitchers sucks.

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks. I don't think the Hamburger Helper guy gets nearly enough press these days.

 

Look, I hate the f***ing ******* and don't want to see him be a Red Sox player. Is it based on numbers or performance? Hell no. It's based on close to 40 years as a Sox fan and all that comes with that, the disappointment of '75, the summer of '78 which destroyed my childhood culminating with the afterschool elinination game...ah, f*** it, I just hate ARod.

 

Fair enough. The whole "unclutch" thing bothers me, if you couldn't tell.

[YAZMAN]

He (Foulke) did when we needed him to' date=' he'll be remebered more for the Fall of '04 than the abortion that was his last year in Boston.[/quote']

 

What about his "Johnny from Burger King" comments or the fact that all he cared about was getting paid?

 

Yeah...I forgot about all that...see what happens when a guy is clutch in the playoffs.:joke:

[soxfan17881]

I have a sneaking suspicion that if we got A-Rod (which I hope happens) that it would make Manny obsolete. I beleive that Manny would "be Manny", would pout and bitch and slack off because of the money going to A-Rod.

 

That having been said, with Manny in left until he screws-the-pooch, and A-Rod at short, could we still manage to keep Lowell at third? I mean, IMAGINE THAT!!! Add to that the probability (whatever it might be) of Drew having a year more atune to his capability and salary...HOLY COW!

[BSN07]

If we get him I'll root for him because of the uniform he wears, but if we don't get him I won't shed any tears.

 

I will say this tho, Manny is going to have to be replaced, plain and simple, he won't be here forever. We will need a new RH bat to drive in runs and help maintaining the balance of our line up. If the Sox where to replace Manny with a power LH bat it wouldn't be the end of the world but LH power will decrease slightly playing at Fenway and make out two biggest threats LH.

[example1]

If we get him I'll root for him because of the uniform he wears, but if we don't get him I won't shed any tears.

 

I will say this tho, Manny is going to have to be replaced, plain and simple, he won't be here forever. We will need a new RH bat to drive in runs and help maintaining the balance of our line up. If the Sox where to replace Manny with a power LH bat it wouldn't be the end of the world but LH power will decrease slightly playing at Fenway and make out two biggest threats LH.

 

That's the whole point. Who do we get to replace Manny when he inevitably ends his Red Sox career? Who is available this year or next to replace him. If someone were able to point out--for instance--that someone like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday or Miguel Cabrera were available then I would say don't sign A-Rod, but the question is WHO will that player be.

 

Fukudome could be the wildcard here. Could he be a 4th OF next year, after dealing Crisp and then be the opposite corner OF with Drew and Ellsbury for the years to come? I think Fukudome could realistically add 20HR/100RBI from a corner OF position, which would be pretty solid for a #5 type hitter.

[Mr Crunchy]

you wont see manny and arod together in fenway

if we get arod we decline on manny and lose lowell as well

arod put up more hrs #s than them both combined and i hate the **********....

but would love him in a bleeding moment if we got him

ya i would

i admit it

[RobZombie]

There are some fans who will never love A-Rod in Boston unless the Sox win a World Series with him on their team. Of course there are also many who consider every year they don't win as a failure. You can't argue with the "A-Rod is a bad/unclutch guy" I don't want him.

 

One thing that has to be considered for next year is that there will be no luxury tax for 2008. That means that any money the Sox paid this year in luxury tax can go into the hands of A-Rod, Schilling, Lowell, Colon, Dunn, Santana, or whomever they see fit.

 

Also be careful of judging people you've never met.

[CrespoBlows]

That's the whole point. Who do we get to replace Manny when he inevitably ends his Red Sox career? Who is available this year or next to replace him. If someone were able to point out--for instance--that someone like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday or Miguel Cabrera were available then I would say don't sign A-Rod, but the question is WHO will that player be.

 

Fukudome could be the wildcard here. Could he be a 4th OF next year, after dealing Crisp and then be the opposite corner OF with Drew and Ellsbury for the years to come? I think Fukudome could realistically add 20HR/100RBI from a corner OF position, which would be pretty solid for a #5 type hitter.

 

From what I hear, Fukudome is going to want $12 million annually. Do you really think he's going to be the 4th OF, (even for a year) if he signs with the Red Sox?

[example1]

There are some fans who will never love A-Rod in Boston unless the Sox win a World Series with him on their team. Of course there are also many who consider every year they don't win as a failure. You can't argue with the "A-Rod is a bad/unclutch guy" I don't want him.

 

One thing that has to be considered for next year is that there will be no luxury tax for 2008. That means that any money the Sox paid this year in luxury tax can go into the hands of A-Rod, Schilling, Lowell, Colon, Dunn, Santana, or whomever they see fit.

 

Also be careful of judging people you've never met.

 

It's too bad if what you say is true, because I think that A-Rod was disliked in NY because he didn't win a WS and he may leave because of it. Even when they came around and liked him because of a MONSTER year he wanted to say "F-CK YOU NY". Everyone can see that. It's similar to what's going on with JD Drew this year, but the team has done well and Drew has shown signs of life recently so he's not getting booed out of the park.

 

SMART fans know that A-Rod is a good player and want him batting over just about anyone else in baseball regardless of the situation. What do you do to break a slump? You play through it. The way I see it, the question isn't "who would take A-Rod and his playoff crappiness?"; the quesiton is "who is going to own A-Rod when he puts up 5 HR in a 5 game series, breaks the all-time HR record and god-knows what else."? His playoff problems-insofar as he has problems--are mental and they are absolutely not insurmountable. Having bad luck and bad at bats in the playoffs is not some physical disability. It is a combination of selective data mining in the media, fan sentiment, and a player having a statistical slump at a time when, all things being equal, fans would rather he didn't. Jeter, Damon, Vlad, Manny have all struggled for extended periods in the playoffs and don't get that much criticism and baseless assumptions such as "A-Rod can't perform in the playoffs".

 

 

 

From what I hear' date=' Fukudome is going to want $12 million annually. Do you really think he's going to be the 4th OF, (even for a year) if he signs with the Red Sox?[/quote']

 

It depends on the Sox assessment of his skills and his recovery from injury this season. I wouldn't put any amount past the Sox to sign a player whose reliable production they consider valuable or irreplaceable.

[Mr Crunchy]

arod hasnt struggled in october

he flat out disappeared

he is the poster child for the yankees choking in 04

he is the also the poster boy for their 06 failure in detroit

right wrong on indifferent the whole world remembers the arroyo slap and him hitting 8th

this is his october legacy and he will need to fix this by producing

you play thru a slump in july

in october when you have a best of 5 series these slumps arent tolerated

[example1]

arod hasnt struggled in october

he flat out disappeared

he is the poster child for the yankees choking in 04

he is the also the poster boy for their 06 failure in detroit

right wrong on indifferent the whole world remembers the arroyo slap and him hitting 8th

this is his october legacy and he will need to fix this by producing

you play thru a slump in july

in october when you have a best of 5 series these slumps arent tolerated

 

They aren't tolerated by fans who are shortsighted, particularly when his frustration hasn't even been for our team.

 

Do you really expect 10 more years of A-Rod "only" hitting .280/.361/.483 in the playoffs? Manny Ramirez's career postseason numbers: .260./362./508

He's a choker too, apparently.

[YAZMAN]

Do you really expect 10 more years of A-Rod "only" hitting .280/.361/.483 in the playoffs? Manny Ramirez's career postseason numbers: .260./362./508

He's a choker too, apparently.

 

You inadvertantly left out a few very important numbers:

 

Manny - 315AB, 22HR, 52RBI

 

Payrod - 147AB, 7HR, 17RBI

 

You do the math. Better yet, go back and see how much of an impact the HRs and RBIs had in the outcome of the game. Yes, Payrod hit a HR in the ALDS - team was down 6-2 wit nodody on base, not exactly a huge juncture in the game. Manny hit one that followed Papi's in the deciding game which gave the hometown team a 2 run lead in a game that was scoreless to that point. The other one he hit in the series was only a bottom of the 9th walkoff blast that may still be in orbit.

[TheKilo]

They aren't tolerated by fans who are shortsighted, particularly when his frustration hasn't even been for our team.

 

Do you really expect 10 more years of A-Rod "only" hitting .280/.361/.483 in the playoffs? Manny Ramirez's career postseason numbers: .260./362./508

He's a choker too, apparently.

 

Postseason:

Manny OPS - .870

ARod OPS - .844

 

Career:

Manny OPS+ - 155

ARod OPS+ - 148

 

Umm, so what's your point?