Mark Buehrle?

[CrespoBlows]

Jose Reyes had a career .338 OBP in 5 minor league seasons. This season he has a .399 OBP' date=' easily a career high (last year he had a GREAT season, with a .354 OBP). In all those minor league seasons he never ONCE had a season or stint with a minor league team with an OBP above .359 (as a 17 year old in the rookie-league).[/quote']

 

Cases like Reyes, happen very, very rarely, but with Ellsbury's track record, it's very encouraging that he'll be an OBP machine.

 

While "struggling" at AAA, Ellsbury has a .362 OBP; and between AA and AAA he has a .408 OBP.

 

I think people here are knowingly being conservative about his speed. This kid has amazing speed. Not 40 SB territory, but 60-70 SB territory.

 

In 162 games, at the rate he stole bases in A, AA, and AAA, Ellsbury would have had 62, 84 and 73 stolen-bases respectively. The catchers will get better, but not THAT much better; especially given that Ellsbury is bound to become a better baserunner with experience.

 

I leadoff with a guy like that. The desire to put youkilis at the top even if Ellsbury has a .380 OBP seems like a cute sabermetric move, but I don't think the Sox would do it.

 

How many times would Ellsbury get caught?

 

The break-even rate is at about 75%. That number is probably higher, because of the team he plays for. I like Ellsbury, because he might touch a .400 OBP at his peak, and his glove is going to save a s*** load of runs. His stolen bases are just a small touch of excitement.

[example1]

Cases like Reyes, happen very, very rarely, but with Ellsbury's track record, it's very encouraging that he'll be an OBP machine.

 

Indeed, it is. An OBP machine.

 

How many times would Ellsbury get caught?

 

A: 23 (73% success-rate)

AA: 21 (80%)

AAA: 15 (82%)

 

Reyes had 79% last year.

 

The break-even rate is at about 75%. That number is probably higher, because of the team he plays for.

 

One would have to weigh the loss when he gets thrown out because the team behind him is very good, but you also have to weigh the benefit of having a good team which can hit more singles, doubles and triples to get him around than the average team too.

 

I like Ellsbury, because he might touch a .400 OBP at his peak, and his glove is going to save a s*** load of runs. His stolen bases are just a small touch of excitement.

 

They are one of the numerous, but less significant things to get excited about. They do, however, make the difference when talking about where he hits in the lineup. He is and will continue to be a leadoff hitter.

[ksushi]

I was a second baseman. I don't have the arm for 3B or SS.

 

You need more range to cover ground as a shortstop. Why do you think Ripken was moved away from SS?

 

From all accounts, Rodriguez doesn't have the range anymore to move back to shortstop, which would be the greatest concern.

 

He's playing solid defense at 3B this year, why mess with that?

 

Range at third is different from range at short because at short there is time to react to the ball, while at third it really gets on you fast. I went from centerfield to third base and I felt like I had cement blocks on my feet playing third because really you can't take steps to the ball a lot of time, you just dive either way. When you see a guy like Lugo at short, diving after taking 2 or 1 or no steps that might be an indication that the guy has no range, but at third its really just the position. No one knows how well he will play at short until he works out there again.

[Rdsxmbnt]

FWIW:

 

The Red Sox are so interested in landing Mark Buehrle and keeping him away from the Yankees, Boston is reportedly willing to offer him a contract extension in the five-year range.

 

The Red Sox have a farm system loaded with players in whom the White Sox are interested. SP Clay Buchholz, SP Michael Bowden, OF Jacoby Ellsbury and SS Jed Lowrie are some players Chicago has expressed interest in.

 

 

I wouldnt deal Buchholz and probaly not Ellsbury. I'd think about dealing Bowden if Buehrle signed the extension.

[BSN07]

Try to get a deal done without Buchholz, Bowden, and Ellsbury. If you can get a deal done like that(even tho is tould be resonably harder) you have to pull the trigger if hes willing to sign a contract extension they offer him.

[riverside sluggers]

Bowden and Lowrie I would def do. You would have a proven (playoff tested) 28 year old lefty. Getting Buehrle would also relieve the Sox that they wouldnt have to ante up to Curt's demands if they become desperate this offseason. A potential rotation down the road of Beckett, Dice-K, Buehrle, Bucholz, and Lester is very promising. Thats if the Sox would be able to extend his contract when he is traded

[Rdsxmbnt]

I like the RH-LH balance in that rotation also. A ton of potential there also as Beckett/Dice/Buchholz have ace potential and Beckett is arguably there now with Dice picking up steam. Buehrle is a legit #2/#3 and Lester is a potential #2/#3. Make it happen theo!

[CrespoBlows]

I want to like Buehrle. He works fast, and he usually pitches into the 6th inning, but he struck out 98 batters in 200 IP last year.

 

Am I wrong to expect a regression? EDIT* No, I'm not. Career BABIP is near .290, this year it's .252. I expect somewhat of a slide, but he still eats a s*** load of innings.

 

I'd give up Bowden for him, but not Buchholtz.

 

Bowden, Lowrie, and Moss?

[schillingouttheks]

So what happens for this year's rotation then? Who gets moved to the bullpen? Tavarez has been pitching better and more consistently than Schilling or Wakefield...

[Beckett95]

wait for schilling to come back healthy, then move wakefield or tavarez to the pen

[schillingouttheks]

This also means that we probably won't be seeing Lester soon unless someone goes down with an injury.

 

So then, if we do land Buehrle with his 5-year extension, the '08 rotation could look like this (I REALLY want the Sox to go after Sabathia or Zambrano...either one):

 

Beckett

Matsuzaka

Zambrano/Sabathia

Buehrle

Lester

 

...the only thing is that I want to see Buchholz in the '08 rotation.

[Cocos Disciples]

On the ESPNEWS ticker, it says that the ChiSox expect to trade Buehrle. I'd love to get him. Can't have too many arms.

[riverside sluggers]

This also means that we probably won't be seeing Lester soon unless someone goes down with an injury.

 

So then, if we do land Buehrle with his 5-year extension, the '08 rotation could look like this (I REALLY want the Sox to go after Sabathia or Zambrano...either one):

 

Beckett

Matsuzaka

Zambrano/Sabathia

Buehrle

Lester

 

...the only thing is that I want to see Buchholz in the '08 rotation.

 

Under that plan, Lester would have to be moved so Bucholz could have an opening

[schillingouttheks]

Under that plan' date=' Lester would have to be moved so Bucholz could have an opening[/quote']

 

I'm not sure that I'd mind moving Lester so Buchholz could have an opening. If we sign a big-name FA SP like Zambrano or Sabathia, I'll take those veterans and Buchholz in the 5 spot over finding a spot for Lester.

[Cocos Disciples]

BUEHRLE TO BREWERS?

 

The Brewers, leading the NL Central by 8 ? games, are kicking around the idea of trading for White Sox left-hander Mark Buehrle — a move that, while a longshot, would make sense.

 

The addition of Buehrle would give the Brewers a potentially formidable postseason rotation — Buerhle, right-hander Ben Sheets, left-hander Chris Capuano and righty Jeff Suppan.

 

The move also would enable the Brewers to move righty Claudio Vargas or Dave Bush to the bullpen — Bush was a closer at Wake Forest.

 

Here are the obstacles:

 

Approximately 10 teams are on Buehrle, including the Mets, Braves, Mariners and Buehrle's expected long-term choice, the Cardinals.

 

Buehrle, a potential free agent earning $9.5 million, would increase the Brewers' payroll by approximately $3 million if they acquired him on July 31.

 

The price in young talent might be prohibitive for the Brewers, who would resist giving up third baseman Ryan Braun or right-hander Yovani Gallardo.

The Brewers, though, should be open to trading other prospects. They could recoup two high draft picks by offering Buehrle salary arbitration — an offer he surely would reject in order to sign a lucrative free-agent contract.

 

As for the payroll increase, the Brewers probably could absorb it — their average home attendance has jumped from 28,835 last season to 32,949 this season. Owner Mark Attanasio has said in the past that the team has payroll flexibility.

 

Per Ken Rosenthal

[SCM33]

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/7949

[MDF3530]

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070624&content_id=2046643&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

[Beckett95]

I think Bowden, Lowrie and Murphy or Moss could and should get it done

[ksushi]

I think we could do it with Gabbard, Murphy/Moss and Hansen. Any word on what the package could be?

 

Counter Offer: that might be low balling, but not a bad initial offer. Ellsbury, Lowrie, and Murphy gets it done hands down and I'd be fine with that.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

This seems to be picking up steam. I'm good with a trade that doesn't include Jacoby Ellsbury or Clay Buchholz. Those are the gems of our very talented minor league system. There are many other players who are good players and could contribute now in the major leagues. Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Kason Gabbard, Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen, Edgar Martinez, David Pauley, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp, Wily Mo Pena....I would go as far as Michael Bowden but I'm nervous about him. At 20 years old (and I've seen him pitch) he is well ahead of the game and will turn into a real good pitcher. Better than Mark Buehrle?....no I don't think so but Clay Buchholz certainly could be...so stay away from him.

[TedWilliams101]

I like Manny Delcarmen, Hansen, and Gabbard, but I like Buehrle more. I don't want to give up Ellsbury or Buchholz. Or Bowden.

[Cocos Disciples]

You might very well have to give up Bowden. I'm hearing Bowden and Lowrie and maybe someone else could get the job done. I like Lowrie a lot, and it would be tough to part with the most advanced middle infielder in the farm system with Lugo sucking it up in the majors. But you have to do it for Buehrle.

 

The rotation would be pretty nice if we do get him.

This season:

1. Josh Beckett

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka

3. Mark Buehrle

4. Curt Schilling

5. Tim Wakefield

 

Next season:

1. Josh Beckett

2. Daisuke Matsuzaka

3. Mark Buehrle

4. Jon Lester

5. Clay Buchholz/Tim Wakefield?

[jacksonianmarch]

I dunno. Buerhle is an interesting fellow. The white sox may have a partner with the Mutts if the Mutts offer Gomez or Milledge. To beat that package, the sox would have to include either Ellsbury or Buchholz. If the Mets arent serious with that offer, then Bowden and another prospect will be required. He wont come cheap since he is 28, and if the sox get a window to negotiate an extension, you better believe the white sox will ask for a ton. I dont think he comes to Boston btw. I just dont see Theo outclassing Minaya on this one. And if he does, I have a feeling that the Buchholz lovers on the site will picket Theo's offices.

[Cocos Disciples]

I dunno. Buerhle is an interesting fellow. The white sox may have a partner with the Mutts if the Mutts offer Gomez or Milledge. To beat that package' date=' the sox would have to include either Ellsbury or Buchholz. If the Mets arent serious with that offer, then Bowden and another prospect will be required. He wont come cheap since he is 28, and if the sox get a window to negotiate an extension, you better believe the white sox will ask for a ton. I dont think he comes to Boston btw. I just dont see Theo outclassing Minaya on this one. And if he does, I have a feeling that the Buchholz lovers on the site will picket Theo's offices.[/quote']

 

If the Mets offer Gomez/Milledge, they can have him. I would not want to give Buchholz or Ellsbury for him.

[a700hitter]

There will be plenty of room for Bucholz when he is ready. in the meantime, if the Red Sox can get Buerhle without giving up a blue-chipper, they should do it.

[ksushi]

I would give up bowden, looking down the road, we might not have a need for him, or at least not such a pressing need that we can see at this point to justify keeping him instead of acquiring a guy who would very possibly put us over the top. Bucholz is our absolutely untradable guy. Ellsbury is close, because great leadoff hitters are rare, but I don't cry over losing him. Bowden might make sense for us to deal. I don't know off-hand anyone can offer a package that tops a Bowden, Murphy, and Gabbard deal.

 

Bowden is the youngest player in AA, and has all the ceiling in the world. Thing is, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester and Bucholz are the guys ahead of him in the "pitchers of the future" department. Thats stiff competition and gives us a little bit of a surplus here of young pitching talent (jesus christ did I just say that?). Dealing Bowden away for just anyone would be a mistake, but if you're talking about bringing in a pitcher like Buehrle, I think its due dilligence to at least kick the tires. Buehrle gives us big time schilling insurance and a scary front 3 in the playoffs that might even be better than the Schilling, Pedro and Lowe 1-2-3 punch we had that year we when we did pretty good. When was that again? Eh, minor detail.

 

Point is, Buehrle is worth parting with prospects. Looking ahead to the future is important, but when we're looking at guys like Buch, Lester, Dice-K, Papelbon etc. I think we might be ok there. Buehrle is a rock. I'm in favor of this one big time.

[example1]

I would give up bowden, looking down the road, we might not have a need for him, or at least not such a pressing need that we can see at this point to justify keeping him instead of acquiring a guy who would very possibly put us over the top. Bucholz is our absolutely untradable guy. Ellsbury is close, because great leadoff hitters are rare, but I don't cry over losing him. Bowden might make sense for us to deal. I don't know off-hand anyone can offer a package that tops a Bowden, Murphy, and Gabbard deal.

 

Bowden is the youngest player in AA, and has all the ceiling in the world. Thing is, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester and Bucholz are the guys ahead of him in the "pitchers of the future" department. Thats stiff competition and gives us a little bit of a surplus here of young pitching talent (jesus christ did I just say that?). Dealing Bowden away for just anyone would be a mistake, but if you're talking about bringing in a pitcher like Buehrle, I think its due dilligence to at least kick the tires. Buehrle gives us big time schilling insurance and a scary front 3 in the playoffs that might even be better than the Schilling, Pedro and Lowe 1-2-3 punch we had that year we when we did pretty good. When was that again? Eh, minor detail.

 

Point is, Buehrle is worth parting with prospects. Looking ahead to the future is important, but when we're looking at guys like Buch, Lester, Dice-K, Papelbon etc. I think we might be ok there. Buehrle is a rock. I'm in favor of this one big time.

 

I wonder if the sox are convinced that Lester can come back. Bowden may have a higher upside if he can put it together and the team could wait. They are both great pitchers though. Buehrle would be a tremendous addition to the team in the #4 spot this year. I agree with just about everyone else here: if you can do it without Buchholz and Ellsbury and possibly Bowden then pull the string. If you can get a guy of Buehrle's caliber for a AA prospect (as the centerpiece that is) then he has already given you value. I haven't really seen Buehrle throw this season but he looked pretty good the two games I did watch. He has been great in the past against good competition.

[a700hitter]

If kenny Williams is convinced that the 2007 White Sox will not be able to compete for Wild Card, he'll get the most value for Buerhle if he trades him soon. If he waits until the trading deadline, teams will not pay as much for him. He'd be a huge addition, but I think the desperation of the Mets will result in them being the most aggressive trading partners.

[a700hitter]

I wonder if the sox are convinced that Lester can come back.

Come back? He never established himself as a consistent reliable major league starter.

[ksushi]

I wonder if the sox are convinced that Lester can come back. Bowden may have a higher upside if he can put it together and the team could wait. They are both great pitchers though. Buehrle would be a tremendous addition to the team in the #4 spot this year. I agree with just about everyone else here: if you can do it without Buchholz and Ellsbury and possibly Bowden then pull the string. If you can get a guy of Buehrle's caliber for a AA prospect (as the centerpiece that is) then he has already given you value. I haven't really seen Buehrle throw this season but he looked pretty good the two games I did watch. He has been great in the past against good competition.

 

Given his AAA numbers, and the nature of the setbacks and potential for full recovery (and the signs that he has made a full recovery with the fastball coming back and the weight) I would say I feel pretty comfortable talking about Lester as part of the Sox going forward. He has been inconsistent, but I know the pitch count is something that has hindered his performance in the past and has always been impatient with it. Regardless, his AAA numbers are solid right now. I think Lester is back to being Lester.