Breakdown of Dice-K

[schillingouttheks]

Dice-K sucks. Hate to say it but he's a glorified Chan-Ho Park.

 

Good God. Are you serious? I think you were. Yeszir we need a gun-to-head-and-shoot smiley.

 

Let's see here...Daisuke:

 

-came from f***in' Japan

-is in his FIRST year in a better league

-has showed that he can keep you in a game when he's pitching through the stomach flu

-has shown flashes of utter brilliance

-has at LEAST five pitches other than a fastball

-is 26 years old

-pitched an 18-inning complete game in high school

-he then pitched out of his teams' bullpen the next day

 

Please add to this list. I have no idea how you can say he sucks. He's sucked AT TIMES THIS YEAR, but he isn't a bad pitcher. Give him a year to adjust.

 

By your logic, you must have said last year that Beckett sucks. Did you or did you not?

[jacksonianmarch]

Breakdown of Dice K:

 

I take him in a new york minute.

[Mr Crunchy]

dice k is the anti matt clement

[Rdsxmbnt]

encouraging start last night

[Gom]

Solid pitcher, a poor man's Mike Mussina [old Mussina, not current]. Not an elite level pitcher, not at the talent level of a Halliday, Santana, Oswalt, Shilling/RJ in their days, Wang, Carpenter, etc., but more along the lines of a Beckett, Pettitte, Glavine, etc. Solid, very solid, but not spectacular.

 

Unlike hitters, pitchers usually don't improve by coming here from Japan. This is an analysis of starting pitchers who came over from Japan and their numbers the first two seasons.

 

Irabu [first full season]: 1998 4.06 ERA

1999 4.84 ERA

Lifetime ERA 5.15

 

Nomo 1995 2.54 ERA

1996 3.19 ERA

Lifetime 4.21 ERA

 

Masato Yoshii 1998: 3.93 ERA

1999: 4.40

Lifetime ERA 4.62

 

Tomo Ohka 2001: 5.47 ERA [only 107 IP]

2002: 3.18 ERA [192 IP IP]

2003: 4.16 ERA [199.2 IP]

Lifetime ERA: 4.10 ERA

 

These are the pitchers I remember. I'm sure there are other starters, but I believe that if you look into it, you will see this trend continue. Mainly because no one has seen the pitchers. Unfamiliarity always favors the pitchers. The more a hitter sees a pitcher, the better the chance of success against the pitcher, no matter how good that pitcher is.

 

All you have to look at how we beat the crap out of each other's pitching staff over the years. The Red Sox are pretty much the only team that has hit Rivera in his career. Imagine if Manny and Ortiz only saw Rivera three times a year. Look at what we do to Wakefield. It's pretty much common knowledge.

 

I think that when the season is done, you can expect a slight decrease in Dice-K's numbers in year two. To expect him to do the opposite is bucking the trend.

[Cocos Disciples]

Solid pitcher' date=' a poor man's Mike Mussina [old Mussina, not current']. Not an elite level pitcher, not at the talent level of a Halliday, Santana, Oswalt, Shilling/RJ in their days, Wang, Carpenter, etc., but more along the lines of a Beckett, Pettitte, Glavine, etc. Solid, very solid, but not spectacular.

 

Way to sneak Wang in there.

[BSN07]

I can't believe you mentioned Wang and Santanna in the same sentence.

[Gom]

 

I love my Wang!

 

I wondered how many of you would actually focus on that rather than the very well-written analysis of Japanese starting pitchers.

 

Regardless of where you wanna put my Wang, even if you take my Wang out and put it somewhere else, the point I was trying to make is that Dice-K, no matter how well or poorly he does, will probably have slightly decreased numbers next year.

[BSN07]

Wang is getting smacked around alot this year. His perph. numbers showed he probably wouldnt be able to sustain the success he enjoyed last season. Hes decent, but I take Beckett or matsuzaka andyday over him.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Difference is Dice-K is a significantly better pitcher than any of those guys, Irabu was supposed to be good but Dice is on another level then him and the best Japanese pitcher to ever come to the United States. I see him improving with experience rather than getting figured out, his stuff is top notch.

[Gom]

Difference is Dice-K is a significantly better pitcher than any of those guys' date=' Irabu was supposed to be good but Dice is on another level then him and the best Japanese pitcher to ever come to the United States. I see him improving with experience rather than getting figured out, his stuff is top notch.[/quote']

 

Anything can happen, but irrespective of their talent level, every starting pitcher from Japan regressed in his second full season. Can he do it? Sure. Will he do it? Most likely not. Whether or not they sucked [irabu] or were awesome [Nomo], they all regressed. I also highly doubt that Dice-K's numbers will come close to Nomo's rookie season.

 

1995 Hideo Nomo 191.1 IP 124 H 78 W 236 K 13-6 Record 2.54 ERA

2007 Matsuzaka 79.2 IP 81 H 23 BB 76 K 7-4 Record 4.36 ERA

 

Dice-K better than Nomo? On what planet exactly? I can't wait to hear this lame answer. In fact, I couldn't find a single way Matsuzaka is better, except possibly winning more games, which is more dependent on your team behind you than anything else.

 

Please enlighten me. How is Dice-k's rookie season better than Nomo's. I would be willing to bet anyone here that Dice-k will never have as good a season as Nomo's first season. Pretty much any amount any of you can pony up.

[Metropolitan Cowboy]

Both Nomo and Dice-K were in there prime as a rookie. By the end of Nomo's second season he has tossed a no hitter in Coor's Field, and struck out 18 in one game. The only argument I can make fo Dice-K being a better pitcher is he is pitching in a tougher division.

[Gom]

Both Nomo and Dice-K were in there prime as a rookie. By the end of Nomo's second season he has tossed a no hitter in Coor's Field' date=' and struck out 18 in one game. The only argument I can make fo Dice-K being a better pitcher is he is pitching in a tougher division.[/quote']

 

I'll give you that. However, I remember how awesome Nomo was in his rookie year. Matsuzaka is 90% hype so far. The Red Sox severely overpaid for a slightly above average pitcher.

 

Of course, compared to our signing of Igawa....

[Rdsxmbnt]

I never said anything about DiceK having a better rookie campaign then Nomo did. However a lot of Nomo's early success can probaly be attributed to his very deceptive windup however as his career shows he was caught up to. What I am saying however is that DiceK is a much more likely canidate to succeed long term because he doesnt really rely on deception and has the nasty stuff which bodes much better for long-term success.

 

And the chances of ANY pitcher in the AL right now having an ERA lower than Nomos 2.54 ERA is unlikely (maybe Haren though) since even the best pitcher in the AL Johan Santana has never done it.

 

EDIT: And slightly above average? lol are you seriously making that claim in 1/3 of the season in his first season in the majors?

[Gom]

I never said anything about DiceK having a better rookie campaign then Nomo did. However a lot of Nomo's early success can probaly be attributed to his very deceptive windup however as his career shows he was caught up to. What I am saying however is that DiceK is a much more likely canidate to succeed long term because he doesnt really rely on deception and has the nasty stuff which bodes much better for long-term success.

 

And the chances of ANY pitcher in the AL right now having an ERA lower than Nomos 2.54 ERA is unlikely (maybe Haren though) since even the best pitcher in the AL Johan Santana has never done it.

 

EDIT: And slightly above average? lol are you seriously making that claim in 1/3 of the season in his first season in the majors?

 

Yes. As of right now, he is in my opinion a slightly above average pitcher. Even that is a bit of a stretch if you look at his numbers.

 

I think, like I said, that he will be a solid pitcher. Not a true ace in the mold of Halladay, Santana, Oswalt, etc. [fine, no Wang], but a very solid pitcher. I think he will end up with better numbers this year than what he has, but I don't think he will be that Cy Young candidate you are all hoping for this year.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Yes. As of right now, he is in my opinion a slightly above average pitcher. Even that is a bit of a stretch if you look at his numbers.

 

I thing, like I said, that he will be a solid pitcher. Not a true ace in the mold of Halladay, Santana, Oswalt, etc. [fine, no Wang], but a very solid pitcher. I think he will end up with better numbers this year than what he has, but I don't think he will be that Cy Young candidate you are all hoping for this year.

 

First think I should mention is Halladay and Oswalt are NOT Johan Santana. I don't think anyone will disagree with me that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball (probably has the best pitch in baseball as well). Halladay has injury issues while Oswalt pitches in the NL. Maybe that not fair but it is what it is....Santana is in a category of his own. So..

 

Is Dice-K the next Johan Santana? No he is not but he DOES have the ability to put up a few potential Cy Young seasons. He has a terrific team behind him and once he becomes more settled in, I would expect more. He has his good days and his bad days but when he starts to understand teams better then he will know how to attack them. Because of his style I don't see it being the other way around. He managed to defeat the Yankees when he knew nothing about them.

 

He is a smart pitcher who knows how to pitch and eventually that will catch up with him, he will have better pitch selection and learn how to set up batters. Right now he places the game in Jason Varitek's hands and Varitek (as good as he is) doesn't quite know how to handle Dice-K at this point. Everyone makes the comparison of Dice-K to Josh Beckett of 2006....that seems more appropriate than comparing Dice-K to previous Japanese pitchers. Wouldn't you know it...Josh Beckett is putting up Cy Young type numbers.

 

Johan Santana? Probably not but a future ace? Yes. Between Beckett and Dice-K the future and present is bright in Boston.

[schillingouttheks]

If someone hoped for a Cy Young year from Dice-K they were horribly mistaken. That said, I really believe he will be a top-notch starter next year and in those following for a few reasons. However, right now, he is a slightly above average pitcher (even though I hate tagging judgments based on 1/3 of the first season in the bigs).

 

We've seen what he's capable with outings like those against the Tigers, but we've also seen that he has a lot to work on (see: Toronto Blue Jays outing in 4th inning). The thing with Matsuzaka is that he has 5 or so known (I say known because no one really knows how many pitches he has other than Dice-K himself) pitches other than his fastball. That's kind of crazy. In addition, he said himself that the MLB ball is a bit slicker than the Japanese league ball, so he's going to need to get accustomed to it...given some time he'll get that grip down and throw some pitches that we probably haven't seen yet (i.e. that nasty pitch that we've seen in his videos that just drops right off the table...completely unhittable). We haven't seen this pitch yet..which brings me to my next point/question.

 

Do you think he's hiding this pitch because he doesn't have complete control over the ball yet? It wouldn't surprise me if he wanted to keep a pitch or two to himself until he gets complete control of the ball... SchillingIsTheNatural brought this question up awhile back and I wanted to bring it back up for discussion's sake.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Taking a look a Nomo, his Japanese career also went exactly how I expected it would:

1990 Kintetsu Buffaloes 18 8 0 2.91 29 235 287 
1991 Kintetsu Buffaloes 17 11 1 3.05 31 242.1 287 
1992 Kintetsu Buffaloes 18 8 0 2.66 30 216.2 228 
1993 Kintetsu Buffaloes 17 12 0 3.70 32 243.1 276 
1994 Kintetsu Buffaloes 8 7 0 3.63 17 114 126 
1995 LA Dodgers 13 6 0 2.54 28 191.1 236 
1996 LA Dodgers 16 11 0 3.19 33 228.1 234 
1997 LA Dodgers 14 12 0 4.25 33 207.1 233 
1998 LA Dodgers 2 7 0 5.05 12 67.2 73 
1998 NY Mets 4 5 0 4.82 17 89.2 94 

 

He came in and for his first 3 seasons he was very good in Japan. However after getting accustomed to him, his ERA jumps up to 3.70 and 3.63 in the following years. Then he goes to the United States where no one has seen him before and he dominates for the first 2 years and then hes figured out.

 

I wasnt expecting Dice to come in and compete for the CY Young, and he wont this year. However aside from a few bad starts hes looked very good at times, and I predict his ERA will be in the 3.80 to 3.90 after this season which is very solid in the AL. Few pitchers in the game have his arsenal of pitches, so I can easily see him being a legit #2 next year (with this year him being a #3) and possibly being an ace one day, time will tell.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Of course nothing says the kid can't get hot and go on a tear. This is only the first half of the season where he has 7 wins while pitching hot and cold. He is up near the top of the list in strikeouts. Right now nobody can claim the Cy Young but wouldn't it be nice to see Dice-K and Beckett go crazy and battle each other for the award.

[Gom]

Do you think he's hiding this pitch because he doesn't have complete control over the ball yet? It wouldn't surprise me if he wanted to keep a pitch or two to himself until he gets complete control of the ball... SchillingIsTheNatural brought this question up awhile back and I wanted to bring it back up for discussion's sake.

I think that is a ludicrous statement, my friend. Why would a pitcher hide a pitch. It may take a couple of sessions to get used to the ball, but seasons? Come on, buddy. To think that one day he can suddenly "grip" the ball better is a little far-fetched, don't you think?

 

He doesn't have a magical pitch, fellas. In fact the pitches he has aren't all that special. It's the fact that he has so many of them that makes his potential high. His fastball, curve, etc., are all average/slightly above average, but the fact that he can throw 5 or 6 pitches makes him a very solid pitcher.

[schillingouttheks]

No, not seasons. But I think he has to have consistent work for at least 3-4 months because he can feel confident in all of his pitches. I think we'll all start to see more of what he can do when August/September rolls around.

[Rdsxmbnt]

He doesn't have a magical pitch, fellas. In fact the pitches he has aren't all that special. It's the fact that he has so many of them that makes his potential high. His fastball, curve, etc., are all average/slightly above average, but the fact that he can throw 5 or 6 pitches makes him a very solid pitcher.

 

Not sure where you got the idea that his pitches were average to slightly above average. Six of his pitches grade out as plus or better.

[Ray10]

I still stand behind what I have been saying all season Dice-K is amazing and will continue to b e all year. The problem is every time the guy pitches he doesn't get any run support it's almost like he has to throw a shutout to win the game. The bats need to start hitting when he pitches this guy should be a 9 or 10 game winner right now and he would be if they gave him support when he pitched. He is a very solid pitcher and will continue to be all year by the looks of things. Once the team starts to hit behind him he will be winning alot more games.

[a700hitter]

I still stand behind what I have been saying all season Dice-K is amazing and will continue to b e all year. The problem is every time the guy pitches he doesn't get any run support it's almost like he has to throw a shutout to win the game. The bats need to start hitting when he pitches this guy should be a 9 or 10 game winner right now and he would be if they gave him support when he pitched. He is a very solid pitcher and will continue to be all year by the looks of things. Once the team starts to hit behind him he will be winning alot more games.

He has the highest ERA of our top 4 starters. Run support has not been his problem.

[schillingouttheks]

I still stand behind what I have been saying all season Dice-K is amazing and will continue to b e all year. The problem is every time the guy pitches he doesn't get any run support it's almost like he has to throw a shutout to win the game. The bats need to start hitting when he pitches this guy should be a 9 or 10 game winner right now and he would be if they gave him support when he pitched. He is a very solid pitcher and will continue to be all year by the looks of things. Once the team starts to hit behind him he will be winning alot more games.

 

Have you been watching his starts? This post highly suggests you haven't.

 

He hasn't been amazing this year. He's been average. There's no amazing year to continue if it wasn't there already.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

He has the highest ERA of our top 4 starters. Run support has not been his problem.

 

In all fairness to him, his ERA has been grossly inflated by 2 or 3 REALLY bad starts...I don't feel like it's indicative of him as a whole.

[jacksonianmarch]

In all fairness to him' date=' his ERA has been grossly inflated by 2 or 3 REALLY bad starts...I don't feel like it's indicative of him as a whole.[/quote']

 

not really. He's had one terrible start and a bunch of crappy ones. He's also had a few ridiculous starts that some could argue has LOWERED his ERA from where it actually belongs.

[schillingouttheks]

Maybe not, but it's indicative of his current status as a major league pitcher. He's a fine pitcher, or at least he will be, but right now he's nothing more than a very talented pitcher learning how to pitch in the bigs.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe not' date=' but it's indicative of his current status as a major league pitcher. He's a fine pitcher, or at least he will be, [b']but right now he's nothing more than a very talented pitcher learning how to pitch in the bigs[/b].

 

Those guys are a dime a dozen. The true great ones are the ones who actually learn how to pitch and implement it. There is no given that DiceK will do that effectively.

[schillingouttheks]

Those guys are a dime a dozen. The true great ones are the ones who actually learn how to pitch and implement it. There is no given that DiceK will do that effectively.

 

Which is why I said what I said. He's nothing more than a very talented pitcher trying to learn how to pitch in this new and more talented league. There's no saying he will, but all signs point to the fact that he should. I'm not going to get ahead of myself and proclaim him the next ace of the staff, but he has the talent to become one. Right now, he needs to learn how to effectively use it.