Breakdown of Dice-K

[Rdsxmbnt]

A lot of people have been down on Dice-K lately, and for good reason since hes gone through a rough patch right now. But fear not theres hope for him to turn it around, so I'll take the oppurtunity now to breakdown how Dice-K has pitched, and a breakdown of gamelogs to show exactly where he went wrong.

 

The Start:

Through the first three starts were fantastic, including 2 10 K performances, Dice-K had a 2.70 ERA and was looking like the ace we were expecting. He had little run support in two of those games but overall he looked dam good.

 

The next 3:

The next 3 starts were where hes ran into trouble. We got our first look at problem #1 in the game vs. Toronto where he had his spell of wildness however that time he was able to get out with only 2 ER however the next couple times he hasnt.

 

vs. Toronto (start #3)

Innings 1-3:

3.0 IP, 1 hit, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

 

4th inning:

Strike out, single, walk, single, walk, walk.

1.0 IP, 2 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

 

Innings 5-6

2.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

 

The Breakdown: He crusied through the first three and then trouble hit. It started with a single, and then he felt he got squeezed on a strike 3 call which lead to the first walk. Then he allowed another single. Then two more walks and luckily got out of it with only 2 runs allowed. Though he only gave up two singles, walks will absolutely kill you (the story so far).

 

vs. NYY (game 1)

Innings 1:

walk, HBP, double = 2 runs

Inning 3:

single, HBP, single = 1 run

Inning 5:

HR = 1 run

Inning 6:

single, single, DP scores run = 1 run

Inning 8:

single, Matsuzaka leaves, single, walk = 1 run

 

final line: 7.0 IP, 8 hits, 6 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ks, 2 HBP

 

The Breakdown: It started in the first. 2 outs and then the walk and then the HBP (which are just as bad as walks). Both the walk and the HBP scored on the double and theres 2 runs. Then in the 3rd inning, a single, HBP (again these will kill you) and then another single. Nothing hit real hard but you give an extra base and the Yankees especially will get you on that, tack on another run. 5th inning, a HR (a rare occurence so far), just good hitting there by Jeter, theres another run. 6th inning, pair of singles, and then run scores on the DP, just good hitting there. 8th inning, he probaly shouldnt have come out but gives up the single and then leaves and the MR allow the run to score. So thats 6 ER on the night, 2 of which scored on the BB and HBP.

 

vs. NYY (game 2)

Innings 1-3:

3.0 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

 

4th inning:

walk, walk, walk, single, single, single = 4 runs

 

Innings 5-6

2.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

 

Breakdown: Cruises through the first 3 again like in Toronto, and then again. Walk, Walk, Walk, three walks in a row and then the Yankees take advantage and pick up 3 singles and thats 4 runs allowed, 3 of which scored were walks. And then again he comes back with 2 perfect innings.

 

 

vs. Seattle

Inning 1:

walk, walk, walk, HBP, double, error = 5 runs

 

Innings 2-4

3.0 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

 

Inning 5:

walk, single, single, infield single = 2 runs

 

Breakdown: He never had it in this game. Started with 3 straight walks, had a HBP, a double and an error behind him. One ball was hit well that inning however the result is 5 runs. Breezes through the next 3 innings. In the 5th, a walk, and then 3 singles and thats 2 more runs.

 

Where we are now

His ERA has skyrocketed to 5.45, however his other peripherals are still very good.

-9.24 K/9

-.47 HR/9

-not allowing many XBH, 6 doubles, 2 HRs, all the rest singles

-high BABIP .317

 

The answer? Walks and HBP and unlucky?

- 3.55 BB/9

- 3 HBP

- high BABIP resulting in a higher amount of hits, as the year goes on this will go down and result in less hits allowed

 

Where do we go from here - a sabermetric point of view (stats from sosh)

FIP = 3.27 (5th in the AL)

FIP-ERA = -2.18 (one of the largest negative differencials in the league)

dERA = 3.11

 

So he appears to be a prime canidate to be able to turn it around. His problem has been walks, however he had a good BB/9 pitching in Japan, so theres no reason to think he cant drop his walk rates.

JAPAN 05 BB/9 = 2.05

JAPAN 06 BB/9 = 1.64

MLB 07 BB/9 = 3.55

(by comparison, Santanas BB/9 the past two years is around 1.80)

His walk rate will probaly go up a little since hes going from Japan to the Majors but hes had good command in the past so once he settles in more that rate should drop. And his walks have come in 2-3 1 inning places where hes just completely lost control. Not sure what happened there but with some work from Farrell and experience in the Majors he can limit those outbreaks and just dominate.

 

The point of this is, nobody should be worried hes a bust or anything. Its been 6 starts which you'll soon see is way too early to make any lasting impressions for any player.

[TheKilo]

Solid, solid post.

[ANiMAL]

According to Buster Olney (Baseball Tonight) Dice-K has great command and is slow and pitches well while there is no one on base. But when just one runner gets on base he speeds up.... A LOT. He cant use his normal delivery it is too slow. In the breakdown it showed thiat with no runners on base, he takes about 4.7 seconds until the ball leaves his hand, and when there are runners on, he takes about 1.4 seconds. The only problem now is his speed when runners are on.

 

 

Rdsxmbnt: Nice post.

[TGov]

According to Buster Olney (Baseball Tonight) Dice-K has great command and is slow and pitches well while there is no one on base. But when just one runner gets on base he speeds up.... A LOT. He cant use his normal delivery it is too slow. In the breakdown it showed thiat with no runners on base, he takes about 4.7 seconds until the ball leaves his hand, and when there are runners on, he takes about 1.4 seconds. The only problem now is his speed when runners are on.

 

 

Rdsxmbnt: Nice post.

 

I think that's the main problem, he probably gets jumpy with runners on because he don't want to give up any runs, yet he doesn't want to get stolen on, so he rushes all of his mechanics and looses command and control... He just needs to slow down, I like how the Sox management has realized this now... I think Dice-K can still go to the plate faster with runners on but if you watch him he looks like f***ing Brendan Donnelly... while his regular wind up and very slow and has pauses... just Slow Down Dice-K!...

 

You know, I wonder if Dice-K actually knows what Tito and Tek are saying when they visit him on the mound, all he does it shake his head "yes" and says ok...

[ksushi]

It seems like with runners on he is pressing and doesn't focus well on the batter. The walks are coming in clusters because once he has a guy on first and he goes to the stretch, he hurries.

[AirPantapas]

I'm gonna give him some time to adjust, look at Beckett for this year to last yea, he just needs time to adjust.

[ryanromine]

I believe Dice will come around and be the ace pitcher that everyone has expected through this offseason! He does have stellar stuff! I look for him to calm down and to start pitching like he did for Seibu and Japan in the WBC!

[Beckett95]

for all of you who think Dice-K will never be good and was a bust

 

With 40 hits and three homers allowed and a 47/18 K/BB in 45 innings, Daisuke Matsuzaka has the peripherals of a No. 1 starter. He's also helping himself by controlling the running game (one steal in two attempts) and by playing fine defense. Still, his ERA stands at 4.80, even after turning on one of his best performances of the season Wednesday against the Blue Jays. Everyone likes to say he's struggling from the stretch, and he is somewhat. However, the league is hitting .233 against him with the bases empty and .235 with runners on. Also, all three homers against him have been solo shots. The real problem is that he too often loses the strike zone for an inning at a time. He walked three and hit a batter in a five-run frame against the Mariners. He walked three straight in a four-run inning versus the Yankees. He walked three in a two-run inning in his first start against the Blue Jays. That's a full half of his 18 walks in just three innings. The encouraging thing is that he always seems to find it again after his ugly innings. Still, great pitchers don't have this kind of thing happen to them three times in a span of four starts. … One fascinating Matsuzaka stat: No. 3 and No. 4 hitters are 5-for-37 with no homers and one double against him. Clearly, he has the stuff to get anyone out.

 

if he can just pitch every inning the same, and not have control issues in that 1 inning, hes ERA would probably be around 3 right now.

 

he just needs to work on controlling his pitches when pitching frmo the stretch and he'll be an ace

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with the runners on base argument. Dice has a lot of deception in his full windup with the pauses and the slow slow windup then BANG. 95mph. He loses that deception in the stretch.

[Rdsxmbnt]

This chart was made by SoxScout over at Sosh:

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/4vquz29.gif

 

Basically explains the point of this thread about how Dice-K had fantastic peripherals but his ERA was very high. But as you can see hes maintaining a xERA, Fip, etc. all around 3 (which is around ace-#2 SP in the AL) and his ERA is adjusting down towards it.

[adam123]

DICE -K LOOKING GOOD PEOPLE .

[Cocos Disciples]

This chart was made by SoxScout over at Sosh:

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c65/rdsxmbnt/4vquz29.gif

 

Basically explains the point of this thread about how Dice-K had fantastic peripherals but his ERA was very high. But as you can see hes maintaining a xERA, Fip, etc. all around 3 (which is around ace-#2 SP in the AL) and his ERA is adjusting down towards it.

 

DICE -K LOOKING GOOD PEOPLE .

 

Hmmm...which is the more useful post? :dunno:

[ANiMAL]

Hmmm...which is the more useful post? :dunno:

 

Adam's was, it's capitalized.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Id like to take the oppurtunity to bring this back up for an update. Dice-K hasnt looked good his last two starts, whether he was still suffering from being sick or what, he didnt make good pitches tonight and his stuff wasnt nearly at his best. Aside from the obvious reason for his recent struggles (this was made on 5/15):

 

Originally Posted by adam123

DICE -K LOOKING GOOD PEOPLE .

 

Back on 5/3/07 these were his stats (His stats now in bold):

- 5.45 ERA ---> 4.83 ERA

- 9.24 K/9 ----> 8.42 K/9 (8th in the AL)

- 3.55 BB/9 ---> 2.60 BB/9

- 2.60 K/BB ---> 3.24 K/BB (8th in the AL)

- .47 HR/9 ----> 1.00 HR/9

- .317 BABIP --> .325 BABIP

- FIP = 3.27 --> 3.80

- dERA = 3.11 -> 3.63

- Line against: .241/.327/.331.658 ----> .263/.325/.416/.741

 

So basically his K rate has gone down somewhat (though still very good) and his walk rate has decreased significantly (good sign). His HR rate was extremely low so that has leveled off as expected. His already high BABIP actually increased so its probaly about 35 points above the norm. However the difference is hes been getting hit harder (although highly attributed to the past 2 games rather than on a whole). Its hard to make a really complete comparison considering how he was very sick his last start and we dont really know the exact effects of his illness. At the bottom you see that his overall line has gone up a lot (mostly induced by SLG%, his improved walk rate actually decreased his OBP). And again it was from his past two games (before the CLE and TEX game his line was .235/.300/.342/.642). His 3 games since I made the original post were awesome, and it appeared he had settled in. But his sickness and then next start make it hard to determine what the trend is. So I think we'll have a better idea of where he is at this point over his next 3 starts where any effects of illness will be out the window.

[yeszir]

There's too many variables right now. We can't really tell is he's still sick and thats the reason why he's not up to par, or what.

 

Like you said, his next few starts are crucial for us to be able to judge Daisuke in 07.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the biggest thing is the homerun rate. 1 per 9 is astronomical, thats Pavano range.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I think the biggest thing is the homerun rate. 1 per 9 is astronomical' date=' thats Pavano range.[/quote']

 

eh not really, Pavanos was 1.45 in his time with the Yankees. By comparison Johan Santanas career HR/9 is .95

[schillingouttheks]

I'd rather have him give up the long ball than give up hit after hit after hit...

[Cocos Disciples]

Say Dice throws 220 innings this year. He keeps his pace of 1 HR/9 IP up. That means he allows 24 over the season. Which is the same amount as Johan Santana. It's slightly above average, but it's not horrible.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Dice K needs an "out pitch"

 

He may have one but last night I saw a lot of counts 1-2 and 0-2. Clearly in his favor so he is getting ahead of batters but not putting them away. Johan Santana goes to the changeup, Curt Schilling goes to the splitter, Randy Johnson goes to the slider, etc. You know its coming but there is still nothing you can do about it.

 

I thought Dice-Ks best pitch was his changeup and I rarely see it (I think he struggles trying to locate it). If he can use that pitch, his splitter, slider, whatever....as an "out pitch" he could be the best pitcher in the league...especially if he can somehow get all of them working like he did in Japan.

[schillingouttheks]

I think he said the MLB baseball is a bit more slick than the ball he used in Japan. Given a full year with the different ball I think he'll look like the pitcher that was advertised next year.

 

We've seen glimpses of what he was in Japan, but there's obviously still a lot to be seen.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I have a question for those who have seen extensive clips from Dice-K off youtube or on TV.

 

I see a clip of Dice-K from the WBC where he throws a pitch to a lefty batter from Cuba. The ball starts right at him then dives down and to the right all the way across the plate. It is the extreme case of "nasty" pitch and I'm still trying to figure out what it is? It looks like the movement from his changeup I saw a couple times but until now....I haven't seen him throw a pitch like that.

 

I also saw a clip of him throwing to a batter that resembles Tadahito Iguchi. This pitch looks like a splitter (wrong grip though when you watch in slow motion) and it dives SHARP down and a little to the right....completely unhittable.

 

Where are these pitches? Is it the ball? Is he saving this for when he becomes more accustomed to the league? Was it a fluke?

[schillingouttheks]

No, I've seen him throw that pitch a lot in most of the clips I've seen. I think it's possible that he's hiding it until he gets more control over the new ball. I know exactly the pitch you're talking about (I think that batter was in fact Iguchi). I believe the pitch you're referring to is the one where he threw it as if he were a football quarterback?

 

Regardless, it's a dirty pitch. I've never seen it before I watched Matsuzaka throw it. I remember him (well, his translator) explicity stating that the ball was a bit more slick in America. He may be saving his best pitch(es) for when he gets better overall control of the ball with, of course, his basic pitches (fastball, changeup, etc.)

[TheKilo]

I think the biggest thing is the homerun rate. 1 per 9 is astronomical' date=' thats Pavano range.[/quote']

 

I love how you throw s*** like this out and never do any research to back it up.

[example1]

I have a question for those who have seen extensive clips from Dice-K off youtube or on TV.

 

I see a clip of Dice-K from the WBC where he throws a pitch to a lefty batter from Cuba. The ball starts right at him then dives down and to the right all the way across the plate. It is the extreme case of "nasty" pitch and I'm still trying to figure out what it is? It looks like the movement from his changeup I saw a couple times but until now....I haven't seen him throw a pitch like that.

 

I also saw a clip of him throwing to a batter that resembles Tadahito Iguchi. This pitch looks like a splitter (wrong grip though when you watch in slow motion) and it dives SHARP down and a little to the right....completely unhittable.

 

Where are these pitches? Is it the ball? Is he saving this for when he becomes more accustomed to the league? Was it a fluke?

 

I've watched everything I can find of Dice-K (what else is there to do in the offeason, right?). I think the theory about adjusting to a new ball is spot on. He is missing badly with a lot of the pitches that, in Japan, I think were unbelievable breaking pitches. These include the change up (which he has missed up and away to lefties by miles on a consistent basis) and a pitch that I think he tries to throw down-and-in to lefties but which has consistently either gone to the backstop or bounced 10 feet in front of the plate. He got these pitches over in Japan and they were mystifying.

 

Whoever said it above was right, this has all the marking of Beckett's trip into the AL last year. He is learning how to pitch to hitters.

 

It is also important to remember that Tek is still learning how to use daisuke and how to maxamize his pitches. There are some pitches that you just have to get over, and some where you can be more aggressive. It is very hard to do, as a rookie, in a new country, with a pitching coach who can't speak your language, under the most intense media coverage imaginable. Baring injury I think most people are pretty confident that he will figure out what he's doing and how to be effective. Right now he's the 3rd best pitcher on the team, but with what he's shown at times he could be the best by the playoffs (if we get there).

[jacksonianmarch]

I love how you throw s*** like this out and never do any research to back it up.

 

1 HR per 9IP. Pretty simple if you ask me Kilo.

[TheKilo]

1 HR per 9IP. Pretty simple if you ask me Kilo.

 

You called it astronomical.

 

(a) SSS

 

( Is it astronomical for Santana too?

[example1]

1 HR per 9IP. Pretty simple if you ask me Kilo.

 

The number is pretty simple, but how that qualifies him as a pitcher is not. Look at where he stands in relation to other pitchers who are called 'good' and see if the HR rate is astronomical. It isn't.

 

Through June 1st here's how it breaks down: Top 20 HR/9 in the AL:

 

Kelvim Escobar (.27)

Chad Gaudin (.27)

Josh Beckett (.31)

Andy Pettitte (.38)

Chien-Ming Wang (.50)

Dan Haren (.55)

Roy Halladay (.56)

John Lackey (.56)

Jeremy Bonderman (.61)

Jose Contreras (.61)

Jarrod Washburn (.64)

Jon Garland (.65)

Steve Trachsel (.68)

Carlos Silva (.75)

Odalis Perez (.76)

Joe Kennedy (.86)

Fausto Carmona (.92)

Justin Verlander (.93)

Tim Wakefield (.93)

Jorge De La Rosa (.94)

 

A few things are obvoius here. First of all, other than those who are absolutely exceptional (the top 5 or so) it is not at all rare to be NEAR 1HR/9. Given that #16-20 are all above .90 (each having given up 7 HR this season) that tells me that Matsuzaka could be on this list except for a poorly planned pitch or two. I'm not sure what the AVERAGE HR/9 is for starting pitchers, but if the 20 and above rankings are all above .95 then 1.00 is not at all abnormal.

[RedsoxFanInNYC]

Dice-K sucks. Hate to say it but he's a glorified Chan-Ho Park.

[EvilDonut]

Look at his peripheral stats, then put your foot in your mouth.