How good is Matsuzaka going to be?

[Linda]

Let's see how close to reality your projections are.

 

My prediction:

11 wins, 8 losses, 1 trip to the DL, 199 K, 3.82 ERA, and a gay hat to match his jacket.

[BSN07]

16-7 3.73 ERA 190 innings 200K's 50BB

[TheKilo]

14-8, 3.95 ERA.

 

Solid.

[rician blast]

and a gay hat to match his jacket.

 

ya really think he's gonna raid Wilson Betemit's locker? How appalled will he be when he sees old Willie's butt plug and NAMBLA newsletters?

[BSN07]

Look for his numbers to be like Nomo's 1st yr in the bigs or better. He has better stuff and is an all around better pitcher then Nomo.

[MANNYHOF24]

Let's see how close to reality your projections are.

 

My prediction:

11 wins, 8 losses, 1 trip to the DL, 199 K, 3.82 ERA, and a gay hat to match his jacket.

 

If Beckett can post 16 wins with a 5.00 Era I think a 3.82 Era will get DiceK at least 15 wins.

[Gator For MVP]

17-11, 4.09 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

[DUSTINMOHR4LIFE]

14-9, 3.87 ERA

[jacksonianmarch]

I have predicted things about him before, but that was with the assumption that he would have a bullpen. Put it this way, with the sox middle relief and closers role being about as porous as they come, do you see the sox starters cracking 16, 17, 18 wins?

 

Now as far as comparing Nomo to him, remember the differences in their game. Matsuzaka has multiple plus pitches, but Nomo had a windup that was extremely difficult to figure out and he had a splitter that nobody had ever seen before. His splitty was so good that it took 2 yrs for people to even start hitting it and figuring it out. Eventually, players learned that he couldnt locate it well and sat on the heat. That led to his destruction and his lack of confidence in finding the plate.

 

Matsuzaka does not have "the pitch" that nobody has seen before. In case you missed it, he has never thrown a gyroball in a game. The supposed "gyro" on youtube is actually a schutto (sp?) which is a back up slider that nearly all solid japanese pitchers either possess or have tinkered with. Consider it a slower screwball, which is still used in today's game. This is why I dont think Matsuzaka will have the type of initial success that Nomo had. But at the same time, he wont be "figured out" like Nomo was. He has more pitches and better control of them than Nomo had, so he will be good, but he wont be as baffling as Nomo was early on. I actually think that he will be the reverse of Nomo. He's a guy who will benefit from learning the league rather than the other way around and by yr 2 or 3, I expect him to be pretty damn good.

 

This yr, I predicted something in the 3.8-4.3 range, and I am sticking by that. He'll get near 200IP but I dont see the sox pushing this kid until they have to as far as IP, so he should be in the 180-200 range assuming he stays healthy. He will likely K something like 7-9 per 9IP depending on how challenging the hitters are to him. I feel that his K rate will rise if he has trouble because he will be fearful of players putting the ball in play, while I think his K rate will drop if he has success early on. If you look at his numbers, his K rate has declined with each yr he has dropped his ERA. He has started to pitch to contact once he learned the league and started to dominate. This allowed him to stay healthy and pitch longer into games. His BB rate will rise as he will be in the ALE and playing half his games against very patient teams will put a toll on him. It wont go through the roof, but it will be high early on.

 

Either way, even if the best of my predictions pan out, I see him in the 12-15 range of wins. Why? Because the lineup will be good enough to give the sox leads, but the pen is so bad that they will blow a lot of them. Mix that with Matsu's cautious handling at least for this yr and you have the potential to rob him of anywhere from 5-8 wins depending on how poorly the closer performs. At the same time, the sox MR isnt exactly stout with inherited runners, which could turn solid Matsu performances into losses. So at least this yr, I am predicting him to have anywhere from 7-10 losses, 3 or 4 of them not being his fault whatsoever.

 

So overall. 12-15W 7-10L 3.8-4.3ERA 180-200IP 150-180K 50-70BB

 

Yrs 2 and beyond will likely be better once he learns the league and starts to use his entire arsenal along with his knowledge of the hitters.

[castigs850]

we actually have some pretty good names in the pen whether or not they return to form is obviously in question but just two years ago we were going to trade mueller for jc romero, the only thing we lack is a sure thing to be our closer but i think they can hold the types of leads our starters should be able to get for them

[jacksonianmarch]

castigs, the pen can change and with bullpen guys you are talking about high end stakes. I have already digested, broken down, spit out my projections on the sox pen. It would take a miraculous turnaround and someone to excel past recent trends to make the pen reliable, let alone good.

[TheKilo]

castigs' date=' the pen can change and with bullpen guys you are talking about high end stakes. I have already digested, broken down, spit out my projections on the sox pen. It would take a miraculous turnaround and someone to excel past recent trends to make the pen reliable, let alone good.[/quote']

 

 

Middle relief sucks and is not predictable.

 

Aside from a handful of bullpens, there are pitchers who are absolute s*** residing in bullpens.

 

It happens. Donnelly has a track record of success. With some of the others, we'll have to wait and see.

[jacksonianmarch]

Middle relief sucks and is not predictable.

 

Aside from a handful of bullpens, there are pitchers who are absolute s*** residing in bullpens.

 

It happens. Donnelly has a track record of success. With some of the others, we'll have to wait and see.

 

we are agreeing a lot today kilo.

[Linda]

If Beckett can post 16 wins with a 5.00 Era I think a 3.82 Era will get DiceK at least 15 wins.

 

Did you forget where I wrote he would spend time on the DL?

[Cocos Disciples]

1 stint...meaning 15 days...meaning he makes approx. 32 starts.

 

15-6, 3.8 ERA.

[Youk Of The Nation]

17-5, 3.44 ERA, 230 Ks

[Gom]

17-9, 4.10 E.R.A.

 

Loses first game of ALCS as Boston gets swept by the Twins. Commits ritual sepaku on himself, but first decapitates Schilling who had lost game two for not changing his lucky sock, which gave him gangrene on his foot, and he couldn't land properly.

 

Surprisingly, the Red Sox announce they will no longer sign Japanese players.

[ksushi]

Pretty confident there, Nostradamus?

[CrespoBlows]

Pretty confident there' date=' Nostradamus?[/quote']

 

Probably not on the Twins, as they probably won't get out of the Central.

[ksushi]

They did win about 98 last year, I think theyll make a push.

[Cocos Disciples]

Bank on the Tribe in the central.

[example1]

Daisuke will win 18 games. He will be the first or second to 10 wins in the AL. He will be one of three Sox pitchers who make a strong case for an All-Star Appearance, but Schilling will be the only one to get the nod. The bullpen won't be as much of an issue as jacksonian says they will. There are plenty of average bullpens in baseball and it is admittedly the Sox' Grossman-area.

 

I think he'll have a very nice 'rookie' season:

 

18-9, 3.10, 212 IP, 189K

 

All of you talking about wins need to remember how fickle wins are as a statistic. Its just not that hard to get wins as a SP if you're on a team with above average defense and well above average offense. It didn't shock me that Beckett won 16 games last year and I think this year's team is considerably better prepared for the season. We have our SS, we have our RF, we already had a monster 3-4 spot; add to that veterans like Lowell and Varitek, and some solid young(er)sters in Youkilis, Pedroia and Crisp and I think they are in good shape.

 

Lots of wins, I admit, but this is a 90+ win team as currently constituted.

[jacksonianmarch]

"nice". That is a Cy Young rookie yr. Lots of expectations on this kid.

[TGov]

hmm, let's see...

 

W-L 17-6, 3.18 ERA, 215 2/3 Innings, 208 Ks...

[example1]

"nice". That is a Cy Young rookie yr. Lots of expectations on this kid.

 

Yup. Lots of expectations on the best pitcher in Japan who has dominated at every level and whom the Sox just spent 50m + 50m on. He's 26, he'll need to produce like he's in his prime, not like he's a rookie. Again, that's why they went after him.

[Gom]

hmm, let's see...

 

W-L 17-6, 3.18 ERA, 215 2/3 Innings, 208 Ks...

 

So basically, what you are saying is that you expect this guy to be as good as Halladay.

 

Damn...as fans of the other side, were we this bad every time we signed a free agent? I'm afraid of the answer.

[TheKilo]

So basically, what you are saying is that you expect this guy to be as good as Halladay.

 

Damn...as fans of the other side, were we this bad every time we signed a free agent? I'm afraid of the answer.

 

Some of you are. He doesn't speak for me.

[Linda]

1 stint...meaning 15 days...meaning he makes approx. 32 starts.

 

15-6, 3.8 ERA.

 

I didn't say the 15-day DL. Could be the 60-day DL. C'mon guys, you can do better than this.

[Linda]

Daisuke will win 18 games. He will be the first or second to 10 wins in the AL. He will be one of three Sox pitchers who make a strong case for an All-Star Appearance, but Schilling will be the only one to get the nod. The bullpen won't be as much of an issue as jacksonian says they will. There are plenty of average bullpens in baseball and it is admittedly the Sox' Grossman-area.

 

I think he'll have a very nice 'rookie' season:

 

18-9, 3.10, 212 IP, 189K

 

All of you talking about wins need to remember how fickle wins are as a statistic. Its just not that hard to get wins as a SP if you're on a team with above average defense and well above average offense. It didn't shock me that Beckett won 16 games last year and I think this year's team is considerably better prepared for the season. We have our SS, we have our RF, we already had a monster 3-4 spot; add to that veterans like Lowell and Varitek, and some solid young(er)sters in Youkilis, Pedroia and Crisp and I think they are in good shape.

 

Lots of wins, I admit, but this is a 90+ win team as currently constituted.

 

H-O-M-E-R

 

A f***ing 3.10 ERA his rookie year?!!! LMAO.

[Linda]

ya really think he's gonna raid Wilson Betemit's locker? How appalled will he be when he sees old Willie's butt plug and NAMBLA newsletters?

 

What the hell is this? Betemit? Nice comeback attempt.