Wily Mo revisited

[jacksonianmarch]

He is also pitching in the NL and has a little frame. Pedro also had a little frame but had better stuff and a not so violent delivery as Oswalt and was also younger when he was acquired.

 

I don't think you can ever look at a player and assess their true value. Fact is, Lester is a guy who was overhyped and does not have the stuff to be a consistent 20 game winner. Oswalt does and has proven he can. At 29, he still has 4-5 more years of dominance, and he also has the ability to pitch off his offspeed stuff, which is rather impressive in and of itself.

[riverside sluggers]

I don't think you can ever look at a player and assess their true value. Fact is, Lester is a guy who was overhyped and does not have the stuff to be a consistent 20 game winner.

 

This is his first season, maybe just a bit premature to call him out as a bust overhyped prospect. Not all great pitchers came firing out of the gate

 

It wasnt like the Sox turned down a straight up Oswalt for Lester trade, the Astros were asking what everyone wanted: Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen. Again you are just assuming that Theo wouldve traded Lester for Oswalt if they still had the 5th starter Bronson here. Unless you got some solid inside info on how Theo had set everything up, its not at all fact that this is how it wouldve gone down.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is his first season, maybe just a bit premature to call him out as a bust overhyped prospect. Not all great pitchers came firing out of the gate

 

I think you can see with your eyes that this guy does not have the pure stuff to be one of those shutdown aces that he was billed as. He has a MLB average heater. He has a nice little changeup and he has a big loopy curve. That spectrum includes guys like Casey Fossum at the low end, Ted Lilly in the middle, and Barry Zito at the top. Right now, nobody really knows which one he will be, but his ceiling isnt necessarily one for a shutdown ace, when the premium of his style of pitching (Zito) isnt even a shutdown ace. I am not trying to downplay him or anything, I think he will be a fine MLB pitcher, but he does not have the consistent power stuff to be an ace. Oswalt is an ace. He is 29. He could have been had for Lester, Hansen, and Coco. How often do you get the chance to get a young, power + finesse pitcher who has already won 17+ games? Once per 12 years. If nobody even brought up the idea of acquiring Oswalt, then this rant is pointless. But if Lester was the balking point, then Theo has too high of an opinion of himself. If rotational depth was the balking point, then hescrewed himself by letting his depth go to cincy.

[jacksonianmarch]

sorry double post

[riverside sluggers]

I think you can see with your eyes that this guy does not have the pure stuff to be one of those shutdown aces that he was billed as. He has a MLB average heater. He has a nice little changeup and he has a big loopy curve. That spectrum includes guys like Casey Fossum at the low end, Ted Lilly in the middle, and Barry Zito at the top. Right now, nobody really knows which one he will be, but his ceiling isnt necessarily one for a shutdown ace, when the premium of his style of pitching (Zito) isnt even a shutdown ace. I am not trying to downplay him or anything, I think he will be a fine MLB pitcher, but he does not have the consistent power stuff to be an ace. Oswalt is an ace. He is 29. He could have been had for Lester, Hansen, and Coco. How often do you get the chance to get a young, power + finesse pitcher who has already won 17+ games? Once per 12 years. If nobody even brought up the idea of acquiring Oswalt, then this rant is pointless. But if Lester was the balking point, then Theo has too high of an opinion of himself. If rotational depth was the balking point, then hescrewed himself by letting his depth go to cincy.

 

I dont think you get the fact that not all great pitchers (aces) are lights out in their first seasons

 

The Astros didnt ask for Coco. According to Gordon Edes the Sox didnt reply to the Astros asking price of Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen.

 

--Next season if Wily Mo has 30 Hrs/100 RBIs Id really like to see you all still bitch about how the Sox let go a 5th starter for a young power slugger in Wily Mo.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think you get the fact that not all great pitchers (aces) are lights out in their first seasons

 

The Astros didnt ask for Coco. According to Gordon Edes the Sox didnt reply to the Astros asking price of Lester, Hansen, Delcarmen.

 

--Next season if Wily Mo has 30 Hrs/100 RBIs Id really like to see you all still bitch about how the Sox let go a 5th starter for a young power slugger in Wily Mo.

 

I am not basing my assumptions off his performance, which is very good for a first year player. I am basing them off the type of pitcher that he is. Mediocre fastball, loopy curveball, average change guys don't become aces. Power fastball, biting curveballs, and sick changeups do. His stuff does not scream ace, hell it doesnt even whisper it. He was projected by many in the media (who seem to be sox fans) to be an ace. But seeing is believing and he doesnt have the stuff to be an ace. Maybe a solid 2 or 3 in the future, but not an ace. That is all I am saying.

[ORS]

I disagree. He's got a ways to go to get there, namely with command, but he can get there. And, you neglected to mention his best pitch, his cutter/slider. I don't know exactly what it is, cutter or slider, but it's his best pitch.

[CrespoBlows]

Wow. This kid has a sub-4.00 ERA in the AL in his first year, and he's a bust?

[TheKilo]

There was an ESPN the Magazine articel a while back featuring Oswalt and said how Oswalt was contemplating an early retirement. He didn't want to hang around in the game too long, and get out when he was at his peak.

 

 

I forget how much longer he wanted to pitch, though.

[jimmycarter05]

Hey anyone got a clip of some of WMP's homers in a Boston uniform this year?

[jsinger121]

Jackson you don't need a dominant fastball to be great. Its all movement and location. His fastball is good enough to get by in this league. To already him a bust is not doing your homework and not having any patience. Go be a yankee fan if you don't want to be patient with this team.

[ORS]

That patience card plays both ways, Jsinger. For example, wanting Loretta, a productive player, DFA'd for Pedroia while in a pennant race is pretty impatient, IMO. Both sides in this argument, the "keep the older vets" side and the "play the kids" side, could use a little patience.

[jsinger121]

The Red Sox had no choice to pitch Lester though and that is the difference. Loretta might be a veteran but he has an empty BA and when you look deep into his stats you will see how much of a disappointment he really has become.

[riverside sluggers]

Hey anyone got a clip of some of WMP's homers in a Boston uniform this year?

 

enjoy them

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/team/player_media.jsp?player_id=276377

[ORS]

The Red Sox had no choice to pitch Lester though and that is the difference. Loretta might be a veteran but he has an empty BA and when you look deep into his stats you will see how much of a disappointment he really has become.

Wrong. I know all about his IsoP and IsoD. That said, he's pumping out a consistent .730 OPS from the weakest offensive position on the field. That's league average, for everyone, at the weakest position. That's valuable, IMO. He's handled the heat of a pennant race before. He's right in line with his career numbers. I trust him down the stretch in a pennant race more than a kid with zero MLB at bats. Pedroia's time is starting the year next year, not now.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jackson you don't need a dominant fastball to be great. Its all movement and location. His fastball is good enough to get by in this league. To already him a bust is not doing your homework and not having any patience. Go be a yankee fan if you don't want to be patient with this team.

 

Jsing, you are a hypocrite as red seat pointed out.

 

Now, will you get it through your thick skull, I am not knocking Lester. I think he will be a good pitcher one day. But, look at the aces in the major leagues right now. Lets go team by team

NYY- Mussina,Wang (emerging).Johnson has fallen off the list due to age and performance.

BOS- Schilling. Beckett has fallen off the list because of ineffectiveness

BAL- Bedard (emerging)

TB- Kazmir

TOR- Halladay

CWS- Contreras

DET- Verlander

CLE- Sabathia

MIN- Santana, Liriano

KC- none

OAK- Haren, Harden. Zito is not an ace, but a solid 2.

TEX- nobody

ANA- Weaver, Santana. Both are emerging aces

SEA- Hernandez is emerging

NYM- Pedro

PHIL- Myers is emerging

ATL- Smoltz. Hudson has fallen off the list.

FLA- Johnson (emerging), Willis

WAS- nobody

HOU- Oswalt, Clemens, Pettitte

STL- Carpenter

CHC- Zambrano. Prior has fallen off the list.

PIT- nobody

MIL- Sheets if he ever stays healthy could be an ace.

CIN- Harang?

LA- Penny

SD- Peavy when healthy

COL- Francis is emerging a solid 2

ARI- Webb

SF- Schmidt.

 

That is 30 teams with 32 guys who I could consider "aces" or emerging aces. Of that list, the only guy who really draws a distinct parallel in stuff to Lester is Francis and he is an emerging #2 type starter. Other than that, everyone on the list either is power all the way or has one pitch that is so devastating that they can use it as their out pitch. Guys like Wang, Webb, and Harang use an absolutely filthy sinker to get people to pound that ball into the ground. A can stretch their appearances out, and all can go the distance on any given day. The other guys are essentially power pitchers. Feel free to add or subtract from the list all you want, but the fact is, the elite pitchers in the game all either have a signature pitch that is unhittable even when you know it is coming, or they are a mix of power and finesse and can get you with any of 2-3 pitches. Lester is a guy without the power FB. I forgot about his cutter, sorry, but even so, the cutter needs a counterpart.

 

For the guys who use the Pettitte analogy, he used the cutter as an out pitch after he was able to set people up with a hard fastball (which he doesnt have anymore) and a devastating curve. Lester doesnt have the hard fastball and his curve isnt there. So, at this stage, I don't think he has the stuff to be an ace, per se. We will see if he proves me wrong. But, I think his stuff is perfect for a #2 style starter. The one guy on the sox who would project to be a lights out ace though, is the closer. Papelbon and Lester could be a great 1-2 punch for yrs to come if they decide to bring him in from the pen.

 

Just please get this straight. Lester for Oswalt shouldnt even be a consideration. Oswalt is an ace, Lester is a current #4-#5 type starter with potential, in my opinion, to be a #2. No knocks, just what I see. I'd welcome any criticisms on my point, but lets keep it civil, okay.

[jsinger121]

But it wouldn't be just Lester for Oswalt. It would be alot more than that an would likely create more holes in the roster than fill them.

[riverside sluggers]

But it wouldn't be just Lester for Oswalt. It would be alot more than that an would likely create more holes in the roster than fill them.

 

The Astros were reportedly asking Boston for Lester, Delcarmen & Hansen. Even though the 4th & 5th spots would still be crapshoots, and the Sox would then need to scramble for relief help

[jacksonianmarch]

But it wouldn't be just Lester for Oswalt. It would be alot more than that an would likely create more holes in the roster than fill them.

 

that is a fair point, but we are talking about 2 middle relievers here. It isnt like they are asking for another starter or a position player prospect. They are talking about 2 relievers. One who cannot find the plate currently and is old for a "prospect" in DelCarmen and one who batters just seem to love facing in Hansen. Aces don't come available very often, and if you could ship 3 prospects for a young ace, you do it.

 

Now, I am not sure how old you are, but were you for or against the Pedro trade when it happened. The sox gave up 2 top pitching prospects and one other guy for a young ace with a small frame. Those two pitching prospects have been nothing but mediocre from day 1. Pedro will be a HOFer. See what I mean? Prospects are like lotto tickets. Current aces are like solid gold. I'll take solid gold over the potential to get solid gold any day of the week.

[riverside sluggers]

that is a fair point, but we are talking about 2 middle relievers here. It isnt like they are asking for another starter or a position player prospect. They are talking about 2 relievers. One who cannot find the plate currently and is old for a "prospect" in DelCarmen and one who batters just seem to love facing in Hansen. Aces don't come available very often, and if you could ship 3 prospects for a young ace, you do it.

 

Now, I am not sure how old you are, but were you for or against the Pedro trade when it happened. The sox gave up 2 top pitching prospects and one other guy for a young ace with a small frame. Those two pitching prospects have been nothing but mediocre from day 1. Pedro will be a HOFer. See what I mean? Prospects are like lotto tickets. Current aces are like solid gold. I'll take solid gold over the potential to get solid gold any day of the week.

 

How is Manny Delcarmen old for a "prospect"?

[jsinger121]

that is a fair point, but we are talking about 2 middle relievers here. It isnt like they are asking for another starter or a position player prospect. They are talking about 2 relievers. One who cannot find the plate currently and is old for a "prospect" in DelCarmen and one who batters just seem to love facing in Hansen. Aces don't come available very often, and if you could ship 3 prospects for a young ace, you do it.

 

Now, I am not sure how old you are, but were you for or against the Pedro trade when it happened. The sox gave up 2 top pitching prospects and one other guy for a young ace with a small frame. Those two pitching prospects have been nothing but mediocre from day 1. Pedro will be a HOFer. See what I mean? Prospects are like lotto tickets. Current aces are like solid gold. I'll take solid gold over the potential to get solid gold any day of the week.

 

I was for the Pedro trade because at that time the Red Sox did not have an ace pitcher. I was never high on Tony Armas Jr. but high on Carl Pavano. Pretty much if you made that trade today it would cost you double what the sox paid back then. After losing Clemens after 1996 and seeing the likes of steve avery and other bums pitch in 1997, DD did the smart thing and acquired a 26 year old ace. Right now the sox system is very thin at the top of it an trading the likes of Lester, Delcarmen and Hansen for Oswalt would create alot more holes in my opinion because of the weak FA class after this season and the fact it might be alot easier to build a bullpen from within. I would rather not have the EZ boys pitching in any tight situation and would rather give the innings to Hansen and Delcarmen who have betters arms even if they going through normal rookie struggles.

[jacksonianmarch]

all good points. One thing I want to point out though is that this FA class, pitching wise, will beone of the best in the last 5 years. I dont get where people are getting off saying that it will be poor after we have watched the last 2 FA periods be highlighted by the Carl Pavano's, Matt Clements, and AJ Burnetts of the world.

[jsinger121]

Outside of Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito and the Japanese guy if his team posts him there is nothing impressive about the pitchers out there.

[riverside sluggers]

Outside of Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito and the Japanese guy if his team posts him there is nothing impressive about the pitchers out there.

 

I dont see the Sox looking for starting pitching unless Paps is kept in closer role

[Beckett95]

I dont see the Sox looking for starting pitching unless Paps is kept in closer role

 

Exactly

 

Schill

Paps

Beckett

Lester

Wake

 

for next years rotation

 

 

i could see them going after someone like Fransisco Cordero, if Papelbon goes to the rotation.

[ORS]

Outside of Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito and the Japanese guy if his team posts him there is nothing impressive about the pitchers out there.

No, but there's quite a few more serviceable guys available. Any help on the back end of the rotation will take pressure off the front end.

 

EDIT: Personally, if they don't pick up Schmidt, I prefer they stand pat until the '07 class. Doug Davis, C.Zambrano, Oswalt, and Chris Carpenter all hit the market if they aren't extended.

[Cocos Disciples]

Mark Mulder is a quality 2 who could help out in the rotation also. May be expensive because he is a big name though.

[a700hitter]

Mark Mulder is a quality 2 who could help out in the rotation also. May be expensive because he is a big name though.

Do we really want to take a chance that he isn't damaged goods.

[CrespoBlows]

Mark Mulder is a quality 2 who could help out in the rotation also. May be expensive because he is a big name though.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/player_locator_results.jsp?playerLocator=Mulder

 

No, he isn't.

[SCM33]

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/player_locator_results.jsp?playerLocator=Mulder

 

No, he isn't.

 

Based on this season, no.

 

He has been very consistent over his career though. His mechanics must be out of whack or something. You don't go from that good for that long to really bad overnight. Hes also relatively young. He was a front of the rotation type guy. Any reports of him losing velocity?