Wily Mo revisited

[TheRivernator]

Now that Wells is on the DL and is likely going to be out a month, how much different a dynamic has the arroyo deal taken. He currently has a sub 2 era in 2 starts and would side nicely into that 5 slot. I dont think the sox had a contingency plan for Paps as a closer and wells as an invalid. Arroyo would be very valuable right now...

[CrespoBlows]

Lenny Dinardo will take the 5th spot. He'll do just fine.

[TheRivernator]

Lenny Dinardo will take the 5th spot. He'll do just fine.

 

you have no idea how "fine" he will be. You know what Arroyo would have given you....

[CrespoBlows]

No, actually we don't. Arroyo could have been destroyed his next three starts. He's just a league average pitcher, similar to Dinardo. The only difference is that Dinardo has a Derek Lowe like GB/FB ratio (3.2 to 1), and a higher K/9 rate.

[ORS]

Now that Wells is on the DL and is likely going to be out a month, how much different a dynamic has the arroyo deal taken. He currently has a sub 2 era in 2 starts and would side nicely into that 5 slot. I dont think the sox had a contingency plan for Paps as a closer and wells as an invalid. Arroyo would be very valuable right now...

Let's not cherry-pick here. Not only is Wells headed to the DL, but they already have 2 OFs on the DL. Without Wily Mo, who is patrolling the OF? Mohr? He's played well, but he's not much to get excited about looking forward.

 

Another thing. It was too early to say Schilling or Beckett are going to be good this year after 2 starts, but it's OK to say Arroyo is? At least try and be consistent.

[a700hitter]

you have no idea how "fine" he will be. You know what Arroyo would have given you....

Yes, he would give us 12 0r 13 wins with a 4+ ERA.

[TheRivernator]

Let's not cherry-pick here. Not only is Wells headed to the DL, but they already have 2 OFs on the DL. Without Wily Mo, who is patrolling the OF? Mohr? He's played well, but he's not much to get excited about looking forward.

 

Another thing. It was too early to say Schilling or Beckett are going to be good this year after 2 starts, but it's OK to say Arroyo is? At least try and be consistent.

 

I'm not saying anything aside from the fact that he had 2 good starts. You knew what you got out of Arroyo and if you have SP depth with 2 39+ true pitchers (wake is not a true pitcher) in the rotation, then you need to keep them.

[TheRivernator]

Yes, he would give us 12 0r 13 wins with a 4+ ERA.

 

absolutely, and as a 5 starter, that is pretty good...

[ORS]

I'm not saying anything aside from the fact that he had 2 good starts. You knew what you got out of Arroyo and if you have SP depth with 2 39+ true pitchers (wake is not a true pitcher) in the rotation, then you need to keep them.

Nobody is doubting that Arroyo would have some value since Boomer is on the DL. What remains to be seen is if DiNardo can replace that value. If he can maintain his current peripheral stats, it's a safe assumption that he'll be able to do that. And the value he will be replacing is league average pitching (despite Bronson's good start, he was a league average pitcher in the AL East).

 

But that doesn't interest you. Nor are you interested in assessing Wily Mo's value to the team with 2 OFs on the DL. You want to sling a little mud and make the FO look bad, which is why you completely neglected to mention Wily Mo's value in your original post. Yes, Bronson would add some value, but is it more than what Wily Mo and DiNardo bring to the table given the Sox current injury problems? I'm not sure that it is at this point. Monday will provide us with some data to consider when DiNardo takes the bump in place of Boomer.

[ksushi]

I think you're reaching here. Sure, we'd love to have Arroyo, but I think going forward, we would much rather have Pena. Even if people want to write him off right now, in a few years that could be looked at as a steal. Arroyo was a good pitcher, but nothing to write home about. Papelbon will be stretched out once Foulke starts closing and he will be in the rotation. Its not a big issue really. Not having Wells is a blessing in disguise.

[a700hitter]

absolutely, and as a 5 starter, that is pretty good...

But Wily Mo can put up 30 or 40 Homers when he gets the chance. If he does, then it is a good deal.

[Soxfan1]

Rivernator, can you just stop being an ass? It's still pretty pathetic for a yankee fan to come to a red sox board, but at least don't be such an impartial idiot.

[schillingouttheks]

He's not exactly being an impartial ass. He's playing Devil's advocate, which is good to keep up debate. He's a Yankee fan, it's expected for him to take the position he is. You encourage debate, so why get on him for offering an alternate view? What he's saying is what a lot of Red Sox Nation's members are saying anyway.

[Cityofchampions33]

Our pitching is actually pretty deep, and will be even deeper in years to come. What we needed was some more power for this new lineup, and we got it in Wily-Mo. trade what you have for what you need.

[TheRivernator]

He's not exactly being an impartial ass. He's playing Devil's advocate, which is good to keep up debate. He's a Yankee fan, it's expected for him to take the position he is. You encourage debate, so why get on him for offering an alternate view? What he's saying is what a lot of Red Sox Nation's members are saying anyway.

 

I actually advocated this deal and said it was good for the sox. I am playing devil's advocate....

[schillingouttheks]

I actually advocated this deal and said it was good for the sox. I am playing devil's advocate....

Well, I mean in contrast to the views being shared here. More people disagree with you than agree so I'm just saying...

[ORS]

I actually advocated this deal and said it was good for the sox. I am playing devil's advocate....

I'll take your word for it. It would have looked a lot better if you had assessed both sides of the equation, i.e. the value of Arroyo vs. the value of Wily Mo + DiNardo.

 

EDIT: And if you had mentioned everyone on the DL, not just Boomer.

[MANNYHOF24]

I am not saying Willy Mo wont be worth it, however I do wish we had Bronson Right now. He would probally give us 13 wins with an Era around 4, he is missed by me. I do think Dinardo can get the job done however he shinned in his one start last year so lets see what he can do.

[Varitek33]

Lenny Dinardo will take the 5th spot. He'll do just fine.

 

indeed.

[TheRivernator]

indeed.

 

You have no idea how DiNardo will fare. Kinda like how yankee fans now have no idea how chacon will fare...

[mtbykr]

You have no idea how DiNardo will fare. Kinda like how yankee fans now have no idea how chacon will fare...

He didn't say he was going to go pitch a no-hitter tommorow--just that he would do fine. Judging by his limited track record, that is a fair statement!

[mtbykr]

It will be nice to have Trot back patrolling right field tommorow----it was interesting to say the least watching pena "play" in right today. I don't blame him for that triple (would have been a triple anyway) but that misplayed ball early that allowed Ichiro to score and the hitter to get a triple was just aweful!

 

I don't mind him getting his ab's, but i feel much more comfortable with Trot roaming right!

[He Hate Me]

I was pretty impressed with DiNardo in that series against us or Toronto in Spetember. I thought he showed real poise, and was pretty jealous we didnt have a young arm like that.

[seabeachfred]

One Red Seat, well now it is three starts for Schilling and Beckett and three wins apiece. Not bad at all from where I'm sitting. Then, again, today we didn't hit very well unless you call five hits hitting. Yesterday Francona had one of his brain locks with that popgun lineup of his. It would be great to see DiNardo pitch a good game and have some run support thrown his way. We are sort of due for a offensive breakout of sorts, don't you think?

[empirestrikesback26]

Well the point remains that from the looks of things RIGHT NOW, it was a bad trade for the sox.

[seabeachfred]

MTB, people are viewing Pena with rose colored glasses. The fact is he is a debacle waiting to happen out in right field. The guy is a bad outfielder and Theo should have known it seeing him butcher ball after ball in the Cincinnati series last summer. He does seem to be going with the pitch at the plate and showing a little more discipline that he did with the Reds, thanks to Papa Jack. However, I am glad Trot will be back out in right field and hope after seeing what he have in that position for the past few games we all will be a little more appreciative of Trot from here on in.

[schillingouttheks]

Well the point remains that from the looks of things RIGHT NOW, it was a bad trade for the sox.

The point remains that we were never expecting for things RIGHT NOW to look good. We acquired Wily Mo knowing that we were going to get tons of strikeouts with a good amount of HRs. Over the next few years, he could be the next 40/50 HR hitter in the lineup. That's when you judge this trade. Too many people are judging it after only 2 weeks of the baseball season. It CAN'T BE JUDGED YET.

[ORS]

Well the point remains that from the looks of things RIGHT NOW, it was a bad trade for the sox.

I don't think it is. It still has the potential to be a bad trade, but we need to wait until tomorrow to get a little more information because that is when Arroyo's replacement will be pitching. If DiNardo can go out there and keep the Sox in the game (and the ball in the yard), then this is a good trade for the Sox because that is what Arroyo provided most of the time (without the ball in the yard part), and DiNardo + WMP would be worth more to the Sox than Arroyo alone. On the other hand, if DiNardo gets lit up like a Christmas tree, then yes, Wily Mo's performance hasn't been good enough to give up league average innings at the back of the rotation.

[ksushi]

People will pull their heads out of the sand when its more obvious how good Pena actually is. Rightfield in fenway is tough, and Pena didn't come with a good history in the field. To play right at Fenway effectively almost calls for the skill set of a centerfielder. He's new, its a unique field, and hes not so great with the glove. Hes got a power arm, a power bat, and hes young. This was a good move. In two years, when Pena is in the everyday lineup, and he hits the cover off the ball, people will be buying Pena jerseys and forgetting how they wanted to kill him and bring back arroyo and hang Theo for making this move. He'll eventually play left, he will look better out there than he does in right and his arm will really shrink the diamond out there, no one will be getting wall ball doubles against this kid. Arroyo is average, taking a chance on a potentially great hitter for an average pitcher is well worth it.

[26 to 6]

I don't think it is. It still has the potential to be a bad trade, but we need to wait until tomorrow to get a little more information because that is when Arroyo's replacement will be pitching. If DiNardo can go out there and keep the Sox in the game (and the ball in the yard), then this is a good trade for the Sox because that is what Arroyo provided most of the time (without the ball in the yard part), and DiNardo + WMP would be worth more to the Sox than Arroyo alone. On the other hand, if DiNardo gets lit up like a Christmas tree, then yes, Wily Mo's performance hasn't been good enough to give up league average innings at the back of the rotation.

Good point. Tomorrow will determine.

 

However with the date being April 16th, it's still way too ear;y for me to label an offseason trade good or bad yet.