New Manny Rumor...

[Sox Fan on Cape]

VORP/RARP are calculated from league averages at that position. RARP (runs above replacement player) is simpler so I'll explain it to give you an idea of how it's done.

 

First you look at a player's EqA* (equivalent average). This takes all of the player's offensive contribution (H, XBH, BB, HBP, SB, CS, SF, SH) and puts it into one number.

 

*Note, before you start questioning this number, consider this. Statisticians have looked at every season of team statistical data and determined which statistics actually lead to more runs. This is called correlation. Correlations range between 1 and -1. A correlation of 1 means that every time a stat increases, then the team's runs scored increases (-1 is a perfect increase/decrease relationship). A correlation of 0 means that the statistic has no output on runs scored. Here are the correlations of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and EqA.

 

BA - .828

OBP - .866

SLG - .890

OPS - .922

EqA - .928

 

Once the you have the EqA, you convert it to EqR (equivalent runs). Replacement level has been statistically determined to be about 73% of league average. So, you take the league average EqA for that position, take 73% of it, and convert that number to EqR. The difference between the player's EqR and this number is the RARP.*

 

*Note, I keep saying you, but you don't really have to do all these things to find these numbers. Non-subscription users can access all of this information at Baseball Prospectus.

 

Why did I go to the trouble to explain this? To show that part of your assertion is right. These numbers are computed from league averages, so more elite hitters at a position will raise the league average, making the replacement level (RL) higher. That means that the replacement level for SS is lower. By these metrics, if you were to take Manny + a RL SS it would be about the same as Miggy + a RL LF. However, teams aren't limited to replacement level when building their roster. Last year there were 26 COFs with a 30+ VORP, while there were only 5 SSs, meaning it would be easier to get a higher combination of the two postions with Tejada.

Good stuff One Red Seat. You might want to copy, paste and post into the terms and defenitions thred. BTW, if the EE career does pan out you could always go into a career in taxation.

[ORS]

Good stuff One Red Seat. You might want to copy, paste and post into the terms and defenitions thred. BTW, if the EE career does pan out you could always go into a career in taxation.

A shorter definition of RARP and how to calculate it is already there in the terms I added. Yeah, I've always liked numbers. So engineering, accounting, or statistics would be the best fit. I picked engineering because I like the science too.

[Manny Goes Boom]

VORP/RARP are calculated from league averages at that position. RARP (runs above replacement player) is simpler so I'll explain it to give you an idea of how it's done.

 

First you look at a player's EqA* (equivalent average). This takes all of the player's offensive contribution (H, XBH, BB, HBP, SB, CS, SF, SH) and puts it into one number.

 

*Note, before you start questioning this number, consider this. Statisticians have looked at every season of team statistical data and determined which statistics actually lead to more runs. This is called correlation. Correlations range between 1 and -1. A correlation of 1 means that every time a stat increases, then the team's runs scored increases (-1 is a perfect increase/decrease relationship). A correlation of 0 means that the statistic has no output on runs scored. Here are the correlations of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and EqA.

 

BA - .828

OBP - .866

SLG - .890

OPS - .922

EqA - .928

 

Once the you have the EqA, you convert it to EqR (equivalent runs). Replacement level has been statistically determined to be about 73% of league average. So, you take the league average EqA for that position, take 73% of it, and convert that number to EqR. The difference between the player's EqR and this number is the RARP.*

 

*Note, I keep saying you, but you don't really have to do all these things to find these numbers. Non-subscription users can access all of this information at Baseball Prospectus.

 

Why did I go to the trouble to explain this? To show that part of your assertion is right. These numbers are computed from league averages, so more elite hitters at a position will raise the league average, making the replacement level (RL) higher. That means that the replacement level for SS is lower. By these metrics, if you were to take Manny + a RL SS it would be about the same as Miggy + a RL LF. However, teams aren't limited to replacement level when building their roster. Last year there were 26 COFs with a 30+ VORP, while there were only 5 SSs, meaning it would be easier to get a higher combination of the two postions with Tejada.

 

Makes more sense now. Made it easier to understand thanks.

 

Anyway, I didn't mean to sound harsh or whatever by saying your numebrs are ******** but its frustarting that my favorite player and one of the best ever might not be on the team next year. Thats all, frustration coming out thats all. I apologize if I sounded rude.

 

You could seriously teach man.

 

Quick question teach...So you said a correlation of -1 means a perfect increase/decrease relationship. So -1 would be the best to have?

[Beckett95]

new manny deal being discussed at Gotham Baseball

 

The Mets would get Manny Ramirez (and his whole contract).

The Rays would get Aaron Heilman and Anderson Hernandez.

The Red Sox would get Lastings Milledge, Danys Baez and Julio Lugo.

 

http://www.gothambaseball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2002

 

Only problem i have with the deal is, we have no one to bat behind or infront of Ortiz now.

[ORS]

Makes more sense now. Made it easier to understand thanks.

 

Anyway, I didn't mean to sound harsh or whatever by saying your numebrs are ******** but its frustarting that my favorite player and one of the best ever might not be on the team next year. Thats all, frustration coming out thats all. I apologize if I sounded rude.

 

You could seriously teach man.

 

Quick question teach...So you said a correlation of -1 means a perfect increase/decrease relationship. So -1 would be the best to have?

It depends on what you are looking for. A correlation of -1 means that every time the variable being examined increases, then the desired output decreases. That is what I meant by increase/decrease relationship. In this case a negative correlation wouldn't be ideal because runs scored would be decreasing as the stat you looked at increased. Off the top of my head, without reference, my best guess to this kind of relationship would be how often a team strikes out, or fewer pitches per AB, and how increases in those stats lead to less runs. Although, I suspect that if the SO correlation is indeed negative, it is a small number (between 0 and -.1) since the Sox lead the league in SOs and runs scored a couple of years ago.

 

EDIT: And I didn't take your comments as rude, just skeptical. I'm a skeptic too, and I questioned these metrics when I first came upon them as well. And, I do not hold them as absolutes in any way whatsoever. I prefer traditional stats (although I do like EqA) when comparing players of the same position, but it gets messy when you add the importance of different defensive positions into the mix, so these metrics become useful IMO.

[ksushi]

Hah, I would do that deal in a heart beat. All we give up is manny? Sounds great.

[ksushi]

According to The Boston Globe, the Red Sox would like an outfielder along with Tejada, possibly center fielder Luis Matos. The Orioles, The Sun reports, are eyeing young pitchers, Jon Lester or Jon Papelbon, but both are believed to be untouchable.

 

i might get moderated for this, but f*** that.

 

I'm sorry, but clement is a servicable pitcher and manny is downright a better offensive player than tejada. Yeah, tejada does play a more key position, but who cares? When it comes to lester and papelbon, they play a key position, young aces. So what Papelbon is ugly? Tejada is ugly, as a matter of fact, so is Melvin Mora, not that any of that has to do with anything.

 

Clement and Manny, yeah sure. Clement MAnny and Cash, yeah ok fine. Clement Manny and a prospect, yeah right but no cash. Clement manny and papelbon or lester? Go and die. Lester and Papelbon are both future aces, so although i would love to make the baltimore orioles franchise, I actually was lying just now, I don't want to do that at all. We could set them up to be better than us for the next five years but I personally think thats a terrible way to go about winning.

 

Sorry this post sucked, I just hate how everyone thinks we should just deal these two guys lightly, just to get a hitter or two.

 

I'm going to go punch a pillow.... or maybe something alive like my dog.

 

 

dont go calling peta im only kidding.

[riverside sluggers]

if sox trade papelbon, im leading a riot to fenway park

[ksushi]

THAT-A-BOY!

 

If the sox trade lester, I will... cancel my nesn subsciption!

 

In all seriousness, these two are potential future aces with front of the rotation potential. Lets take a step forward in time. Lets say Lester is coming off of a 15-9 season with a 3.80ish ERA at age 24, and Papelbon has been pitching at the major league level for three seasons now has a career ERA of 3.30 at 28.

 

 

Do you one of them and Clement and Manny for Miguel Tejada?

 

*pukes*

 

Yeah i know there is the chance they don't do that well, but I would rather take that gamble then piss it away on a hitter, which come a dime a dozen.

[guapo34]

new manny deal being discussed at Gotham Baseball

 

The Mets would get Manny Ramirez (and his whole contract).

The Rays would get Aaron Heilman and Anderson Hernandez.

The Red Sox would get Lastings Milledge, Danys Baez and Julio Lugo.

 

http://www.gothambaseball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2002

 

Only problem i have with the deal is, we have no one to bat behind or infront of Ortiz now.

 

 

I don't think the Mets are giving up enough in that deal, and the Red Sox aren't getting enough. They should be shipping other prospects to the Rays, and we should get Heilman, Milledge, Baez, and Lugo. And we should only do that if we can swing Heilman and maybe a small prospect for someone like Abreau.

[Cityofchampions33]

Gamons says the Tejada-Manny talks have stalled, but that the Os are crazy to turn down Manny and Clement.

[schillingouttheks]

Gamons says the Tejada-Manny talks have stalled, but that the Os are crazy to turn down Manny and Clement.

Manny is the best pure hitter in the game, and Clement is definitely an upgrade over almost anyone in their rotation. I don't know what they're smoking to turn this down.

[guapo34]

I dunno if its fair to say the O's are stupid for turning down the trade. There are 3 teams in the division that are better than them right now. They have some good young players. They'd win more games next year with Manny, but it doesn't do too much for their future. They should be looking for players like Brandon Mccarthy from the White Sox, Milledge from the Mets, or tell us to keep Manny and go after one of our top 3 with a couple other prospects. A deal with the Angels where they take Ocab along with a couple of their prospects would be good for them long term. If i were an O's fan, I'd rather see a deal like any of these than Manny.

[ksushi]

They are going after our top three prospects, along with manny.

[Cityofchampions33]

Seems that every team we deal with has a feeling they can rip us because of our holes this late in the off-season.

[jsinger121]

the sox won't give the orioles any of our pitching prosects. we are not as desperate as they think we are. they have been running a pathetic organiztion for a long time their in baltimore and it starts with the moron at the top in angelos.

[guapo34]

They are going after our top three prospects, along with manny.

 

They asked about one, and that might have been after we asked about their top prospect. It would make sense for them to want one of ours if we end up with their top prospect who is an OF and would fill a hole in our farm system.

[jsinger121]

it doesn't make sense at all. we are giving them one of the best right handed hitters in the game in manny and a pitcher in clement and probably cash. we should get at least a prospect if they are gettting significant amount of cash and that prospect should be Nick Markakis if we are giving them about 13-15 million in this transaction. they should not even think about asking for one of our prospects.

[a700hitter]

Seems that every team we deal with has a feeling they can rip us because of our holes this late in the off-season.

They should break off talks with these teams that are looking to rip them off, so they don't look desperate. They should sign Gonzalez to play SS, and wait out SD. Sooner or later SD should come to their senses and realize that Roberts for Wells is a good deal.

[Damonwillfryforthis]

The Boston Herald reports that Baltimore is asking for Marte in addition to Manny and Clement and that talks have stalled because of it. It also states that Manny's request for his options to be picked up hasn't been the problem when in fact talks haven't really progressed all that much. Manny, Clement and cash for Tejada and Matos is more than enough IMO, when they start asking for Marte, Papelbon or Lester is when you hang up the phone with the Orioles and pick up the phone and call Manny and try, in some way, to work it out. Unless another team comes with an offer that blows the FO away, i think that Manny will stay put and the FO will concentrate more on acquiring Reed. Cora will make due at SS until the help from the farm is ready.

[example1]

Good, I'm glad talks have stalled when Baltimore gets bigger than they actually are. To be honest, at this point I don't think Manny can doubt that the sox tried to trade him. Let's just keep manny unless someone comes along with something better. Screw Baltimore. They are trying to keep the sox busy dealing with this Miggy s*** to weaken our chances of getting someone good. Cora can play SS. I don't want to spend 5 mill to get gonzalez, especially if it lasts more than a year.

 

Find a CF somewhere. If that's not possible then play Adam Stern. At this point I would rather keep all of our young players, get them a lot of time this year and retool (as LL so nicely put it) for the following 7 years. Marte could get time, Pedroia could get time, Lester could get time, Stern/Murhpy/Moss/Ellsbury can get time.

 

Mostly, I'm sick of logging on and looking everywhere for word about movement in the O's talks. Nothing is happening and it is just getting repeatitive.

[elsrbueno]

new manny deal being discussed at Gotham Baseball

 

The Mets would get Manny Ramirez (and his whole contract).

The Rays would get Aaron Heilman and Anderson Hernandez.

The Red Sox would get Lastings Milledge, Danys Baez and Julio Lugo.

 

http://www.gothambaseball.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2002

 

Only problem i have with the deal is, we have no one to bat behind or infront of Ortiz now.

 

While this is the most realistic rumor I've heard in a while, it seems to me that there are missing pieces. The Devil Rays have been asking for the likes of Andy Marte and Jon Lester for Lugo, they would be insane to drop down to a modest request of Anderson Hernandez and Aaron Heilman for Danys Baez AND Lugo.

 

I think the Mets are getting off so easily in this deal. Millege, Heilman, and Hernandez for Ramirez? That's a steal. I think NY's got to give up a bit more and both the Red Sox and Devil Rays should be getting a bit more talent from NY.

 

It's a real good start though. Let me take a crack at retooling the deal a bit.

 

The Mets would get Manny Ramirez (and his whole contract).

The Rays would get Aaron Heilman, Kaz Matsui (and cash), and Anderson Hernandez.

The Red Sox would get Victor Diaz, Lastings Milledge, Danys Baez and Julio Lugo.

 

OK. I'm probably the only person on Talksox who's high on Victor Diaz, but the kid's been called "Mini Manny" by some and could at least be a 4th outfielder immediately if not get a chance at starting in LF everyday. At 24 he's got a chance to blossom into a pretty darn good hitter and will be helped out by Fenway. Millege is obviously added to the crop of outfield prospects and CF candidates and is invited to spring training. Baez joins a pretty talented bullpen as a setup man and Lugo becomes the everyday shortstop. I'm not enamored with Lugo as a shortstop but he's a better option than Gonzalez or Clayton, so I'll deal with it at this point.

 

The Rays add a guy they like in Kaz Matsui, and with New York paying most of his salary he's a low risk guy and can be a stopgap infielder while Upton develops and can probably step right in at second base. Who knows, without the NY spotlight he could do very well. Heilman and Hernandez are the earlier mentioned youngsters (although Heilman is only 1 year younger than Baez) and Hernandez probably pushes Cantu to third long term. If anything Tampa's coming up a little short in this deal.

 

The Mets are giving up a lot of Quantity, but still worth it for them IMO. They get the prize of the offseason in Manny Ramirez, and give up a pretty decent package of players they have almost no use for: Kaz Matsui has been rendered a bust by NY and they signed Bret Boone to play second. They basically want to cut their losses on Kaz. Anderson Hernandez, a MI prospect will never play shortstop on account of Jose Reyes being there. With Floyd, Beltran, and Nady already in the fold, add Ramirez in there and you've basically got no place for Victor Diaz. Heilman and Millege are the two guys who New York still has a place for, and that's a small price to pay for the best hitter in the game.

 

Personally, I think this benefits all parties. The Red Sox pick up a stopgap shortstop, a decent setup man, and 2 youngsters and getting tons of financial relief from no Manny. Plus, Manny's in New York with the Mets which means at MOST they face him 3 games a year. Tampa's thrilled they don't have to face Manny anymore, and get a decent package for 2 guys who won't be around when this team starts to compete anyway. It's pretty obvious why the Mets do this deal.

 

On to the important aspect of this trade: The Red Sox perspective. We all knew that trading Manny would cause a drastic restructuring of the Red Sox, and this would no doubt be followed by subsequent moves.

 

If we got off the hook from Manny's deal (the only way it makes sense IMO), the Red Sox need to go balls to the wall to sign Roger Clemens. give him a 1 year, $15 million deal if he wants it. You're still saving money from not having Manny, and adding a guy like Clemens has amazing repercussions.

 

With Schilling, Beckett, Clemens, and Wakefield taking up 4 rotation spots already, the Red Sox have the freedom to trade 2 of the following 3: Arroyo, Clement, Wells. Got to keep one along with Papelbon because of the health issues of Schilling and Beckett.

 

Obviously Wells goes. A package from San Diego of Roberts and one of the following: Tim Stauffer, Clay Hensley, Sean Thompson, Rusty Tucker is perfect. Roberts is thrown into the CF mix with Millege and Murphy, and the other is relegated to AAA. Personally I prefer Hensley to the rest, because he was very good at AAA and continued to dominate out of the bullpen. He would be given a chance in spring training to win a job. This guy was a reliever last year at the bigs, but made 14 starts in AAA last year. Thompson or Stauffer are starters who probably need some more time at AAA, but in their early-mid 20s are nice pickups. Rusty Tucker is a lefty reliever who could compete for a job out of the bullpen with the likes of DiNardo and Alvarez.

 

Next you've got either Clement or Arroyo. Personally I say hold on to Clement for 2 reasons:

 

1. He's got better stuff and a higher ceiling. He doesn't have the makup of Arroyo and really struggled in the playoffs, but he's really the better pitcher.

2. Arroyo has more trade value. He's younger and cheaper, and didn't collapse last year in the second half and playoffs like Clement did. The Red Sox are much better off keeping Clement as the #5 and hoping he turns it around.... and quite frankly-- Clement will probably be the best #5 in the game next year.

 

Who Arroyo goes for is less clear. I'm very curious to see what Victor Diaz can do, but in reality getting a RH power bat is the #1 priority. Graffanino's also got to be traded before opening day, so that duo would be a real good start towards adding an established bat. Mike Sweeney is the first name that comes to mind, but the Sox seem committed to Youkilis at first base. One guy that would seem a perfect fit is Andruw Jones. The Braves value pitching very highly and Graffanino came up in their system. A prospect would need to be included, but I think it could be done without Papelbon or Lester (probably a David Murphy)

 

So, my proposal to Atlanta would be Bronson Arroyo, David Murphy, and Tony Graffanino for Andruw Jones. They get a decent pitcher, a pretty good CF prospect (who will soon be eclipsed by Ellsbury in Boston anyway) and a great utility guy. Jones slots himself into CF and the cleanup spot and Roberts shifs to left field. My lineup:

 

LF Roberts

2B Loretta

DH Ortiz

CF Jones

RF Nixon

3B Lowell

C Varitek

SS Lugo

1B Youkilis

 

Rotation: Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Clement, Clemens*

* Assuming we sign him. If not, Papelbon takes that role.

 

Bullpen: Foulke, Baez, Timlin, Mota, Seanez, DiNardo/Alvarez/SDP*

*SDP is the extra we got from San Diego in the Wells deal.

 

If Clemens is not signed, the team has some serious payroll flexibility. Jones gets the money Damon would have gotten, and they're still up $10 million+ from not having Manny. Plus, Roberts/Jones/Nixon has more range than Ramirez/Damon/Nixon from last year and instead of having the worst CF arm the Red Sox will have one of the best. Roberts has a weak arm but would be playing half his games in Fenway where it wouldn't matter.

 

The Red Sox future outfield looks pretty good with youngsters added (Diaz and Millege) and youngers coming up (Ellsbury, Moss) and with all the young pitching and keeping Andy Marte as the future 3B this team's future looks pretty sweet-- while still competing in 2006 with the best staff in the division and a pretty good lineup.

[a700hitter]

If that's not possible then play Adam Stern. At this point I would rather keep all of our young players, get them a lot of time this year and retool (as LL so nicely put it) for the following 7 years. Marte could get time, Pedroia could get time, Lester could get time, Stern/Murhpy/Moss/Ellsbury can get time.

 

Mostly, I'm sick of logging on and looking everywhere for word about movement in the O's talks. Nothing is happening and it is just getting repeatitive.

I agree that the rumor mill is getting boring, but they can't go into the season with Stern in CF. There is too much $ invested in this team to go with a completely untested and injury prone minor leaguer in CF with no professional backup. The FO should just sign Gonzalez for SS and make a trade to get Roberts. If anything comes up after that make adjustments.

[ksushi]

I second examples motion to hear by declare all orioles talk as ********. Anyone who speaks of said orioles is now known as a bullshitter. Tejada and Manny are both very ugly men, neither of whom have any place in a beauty pageant. I do not want to look at either for 162 games. I say we get david wright for no other reason than that he is handsome. So, now that I have professed my man-crush for david wright... uhh, I forget where I am going with this, yada yada yada, tejada talks are certainly getting old, I vote 'yay' on re-tooling with the kiddies. I also vote 'nay' on the rumor mill.

[jimmycarter05]

While this is the most realistic rumor I've heard in a while, it seems to me that there are missing pieces. The Devil Rays have been asking for the likes of Andy Marte and Jon Lester for Lugo, they would be insane to drop down to a modest request of Anderson Hernandez and Aaron Heilman for Danys Baez AND Lugo.

 

I think the Mets are getting off so easily in this deal. Millege, Heilman, and Hernandez for Ramirez? That's a steal. I think NY's got to give up a bit more and both the Red Sox and Devil Rays should be getting a bit more talent from NY.

 

It's a real good start though. Let me take a crack at retooling the deal a bit.

 

The Mets would get Manny Ramirez (and his whole contract).

The Rays would get Aaron Heilman, Kaz Matsui (and cash), and Anderson Hernandez.

The Red Sox would get Victor Diaz, Lastings Milledge, Danys Baez and Julio Lugo.

 

OK. I'm probably the only person on Talksox who's high on Victor Diaz, but the kid's been called "Mini Manny" by some and could at least be a 4th outfielder immediately if not get a chance at starting in LF everyday. At 24 he's got a chance to blossom into a pretty darn good hitter and will be helped out by Fenway. Millege is obviously added to the crop of outfield prospects and CF candidates and is invited to spring training. Baez joins a pretty talented bullpen as a setup man and Lugo becomes the everyday shortstop. I'm not enamored with Lugo as a shortstop but he's a better option than Gonzalez or Clayton, so I'll deal with it at this point.

 

The Rays add a guy they like in Kaz Matsui, and with New York paying most of his salary he's a low risk guy and can be a stopgap infielder while Upton develops and can probably step right in at second base. Who knows, without the NY spotlight he could do very well. Heilman and Hernandez are the earlier mentioned youngsters (although Heilman is only 1 year younger than Baez) and Hernandez probably pushes Cantu to third long term. If anything Tampa's coming up a little short in this deal.

 

The Mets are giving up a lot of Quantity, but still worth it for them IMO. They get the prize of the offseason in Manny Ramirez, and give up a pretty decent package of players they have almost no use for: Kaz Matsui has been rendered a bust by NY and they signed Bret Boone to play second. They basically want to cut their losses on Kaz. Anderson Hernandez, a MI prospect will never play shortstop on account of Jose Reyes being there. With Floyd, Beltran, and Nady already in the fold, add Ramirez in there and you've basically got no place for Victor Diaz. Heilman and Millege are the two guys who New York still has a place for, and that's a small price to pay for the best hitter in the game.

 

Personally, I think this benefits all parties. The Red Sox pick up a stopgap shortstop, a decent setup man, and 2 youngsters and getting tons of financial relief from no Manny. Plus, Manny's in New York with the Mets which means at MOST they face him 3 games a year. Tampa's thrilled they don't have to face Manny anymore, and get a decent package for 2 guys who won't be around when this team starts to compete anyway. It's pretty obvious why the Mets do this deal.

 

On to the important aspect of this trade: The Red Sox perspective. We all knew that trading Manny would cause a drastic restructuring of the Red Sox, and this would no doubt be followed by subsequent moves.

 

If we got off the hook from Manny's deal (the only way it makes sense IMO), the Red Sox need to go balls to the wall to sign Roger Clemens. give him a 1 year, $15 million deal if he wants it. You're still saving money from not having Manny, and adding a guy like Clemens has amazing repercussions.

 

With Schilling, Beckett, Clemens, and Wakefield taking up 4 rotation spots already, the Red Sox have the freedom to trade 2 of the following 3: Arroyo, Clement, Wells. Got to keep one along with Papelbon because of the health issues of Schilling and Beckett.

 

Obviously Wells goes. A package from San Diego of Roberts and one of the following: Tim Stauffer, Clay Hensley, Sean Thompson, Rusty Tucker is perfect. Roberts is thrown into the CF mix with Millege and Murphy, and the other is relegated to AAA. Personally I prefer Hensley to the rest, because he was very good at AAA and continued to dominate out of the bullpen. He would be given a chance in spring training to win a job. This guy was a reliever last year at the bigs, but made 14 starts in AAA last year. Thompson or Stauffer are starters who probably need some more time at AAA, but in their early-mid 20s are nice pickups. Rusty Tucker is a lefty reliever who could compete for a job out of the bullpen with the likes of DiNardo and Alvarez.

 

Next you've got either Clement or Arroyo. Personally I say hold on to Clement for 2 reasons:

 

1. He's got better stuff and a higher ceiling. He doesn't have the makup of Arroyo and really struggled in the playoffs, but he's really the better pitcher.

2. Arroyo has more trade value. He's younger and cheaper, and didn't collapse last year in the second half and playoffs like Clement did. The Red Sox are much better off keeping Clement as the #5 and hoping he turns it around.... and quite frankly-- Clement will probably be the best #5 in the game next year.

 

Who Arroyo goes for is less clear. I'm very curious to see what Victor Diaz can do, but in reality getting a RH power bat is the #1 priority. Graffanino's also got to be traded before opening day, so that duo would be a real good start towards adding an established bat. Mike Sweeney is the first name that comes to mind, but the Sox seem committed to Youkilis at first base. One guy that would seem a perfect fit is Andruw Jones. The Braves value pitching very highly and Graffanino came up in their system. A prospect would need to be included, but I think it could be done without Papelbon or Lester (probably a David Murphy)

 

So, my proposal to Atlanta would be Bronson Arroyo, David Murphy, and Tony Graffanino for Andruw Jones. They get a decent pitcher, a pretty good CF prospect (who will soon be eclipsed by Ellsbury in Boston anyway) and a great utility guy. Jones slots himself into CF and the cleanup spot and Roberts shifs to left field. My lineup:

 

LF Roberts

2B Loretta

DH Ortiz

CF Jones

RF Nixon

3B Lowell

C Varitek

SS Lugo

1B Youkilis

 

Rotation: Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Clement, Clemens*

* Assuming we sign him. If not, Papelbon takes that role.

 

Bullpen: Foulke, Baez, Timlin, Mota, Seanez, DiNardo/Alvarez/SDP*

*SDP is the extra we got from San Diego in the Wells deal.

 

If Clemens is not signed, the team has some serious payroll flexibility. Jones gets the money Damon would have gotten, and they're still up $10 million+ from not having Manny. Plus, Roberts/Jones/Nixon has more range than Ramirez/Damon/Nixon from last year and instead of having the worst CF arm the Red Sox will have one of the best. Roberts has a weak arm but would be playing half his games in Fenway where it wouldn't matter.

 

The Red Sox future outfield looks pretty good with youngsters added (Diaz and Millege) and youngers coming up (Ellsbury, Moss) and with all the young pitching and keeping Andy Marte as the future 3B this team's future looks pretty sweet-- while still competing in 2006 with the best staff in the division and a pretty good lineup.

 

There is no possible way that package of players is going to get a 7 time GG winner with a great clean up bat, we'd probably have to add another above average player to it.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

If I had the choice between Clement and Arroyo I would have to stick with Arroyo for a couple reasons:

 

1. He isn't a head case

2. Arroyo has shown he can pitch under pressure

3. Bronson is also capable of pitching out of the bullpen

4. He is cheaper

5. Most of all I hate the way Matt Clement basically gave up in the game against the White Sox in the playoffs. I have never seen Arroyo give up. Get crushed once in a while...yes...but not give up.

[Manny Goes Boom]

Andruw Jones would be nice to see in Centerfield next year. :thumbsup:

[ksushi]

Considering andruw jones contract? I think Els's offer is more reasonable than you guys think. It won't happen simply because that team really has a gun to their head right now, they already don't have enough to win the east, and there is going to be significant pressure for them to do so anyways. Losing jones is the last PR hit they want to bring upon themselves.

 

Schill the Natural, while I agree with you, you have to realize, the sox might not have a choice. When you have holes like this, to some extent you are at the other teams mercy. Not to the extent where you have to deal grade A prospects, but certainly to the extent where if they ask for arroyo, we can't say no.

[a700hitter]

Now that Manny says he wants to stay in Boston, does the FO continue to make a move for Tejada using prospects? I think it would be a great move if the Sox could get Miggy by offering Clement and three prospects-- two blue-chippers and a lower level prospect. Just because Manny wants to stay doesn't mean that Miggy doesn't want to leave. It would be great to get Miggy and keep Manny. What a 3,4,5 batting order that would be-- a modern murderers row.

[ORS]

Now that Manny says he wants to stay in Boston, does the FO continue to make a move for Tejada using prospects? I think it would be a great move if the Sox could get Miggy by offering Clement and three prospects-- two blue-chippers and a lower level prospect. Just because Manny wants to stay doesn't mean that Miggy doesn't want to leave. It would be great to get Miggy and keep Manny. What a 3,4,5 batting order that would be-- a modern murderers row.

That would be a fearsome heart of the order; however, I think moving blue-chippers for Tejada puts the team in a win now mode. I don't know if the pitching staff is strong enough to do that. If Schilling and Foulke aren't able to bounce back, then they have mortgaged the future in vain, which is something I don't see them doing. As it stands right now, they are a CF and RH 4th OF away from having a contender if Schilling and Foulke can return to form.