Alex Mayes

The Red Sox and Jarren Duran have avoided arbitration. What does this mean for his future in Boston? Ken Rosenthal reported on Friday that the Boston Red Sox and Jarren Duran have avoided arbitration, agreeing to a $3.75 million contract with an $8 million club option for 2026. The deal has a $100,000 buyout included if the club deems it unnecessary to pick up the second year of the deal. The option salary has incentives based on MVP votes received that max out $12 million. On top of that, there are performance bonuses built in, paying out at $50,000 increments at 400, 500, and 550 plate appearances and maxing out at $150,000. Duran will likely hit those performance bonuses as long as he stays healthy, something he proved capable of during the 2024 season. Duran had filed for a $4 million deal while the Red Sox came in at $3.5 million, leaving many to question what the front office was doing, haggling over a mere $500,000, myself included. It turns out that much of that was an overreaction, and we need to remember that we are not baseball experts in these situations. On the surface, it looked like the Red Sox were being cheap and quietly working to put together a deal that benefits both sides. It gives the team a very team-friendly deal for one of the best players in the league in 2024, with an option to bring him back at a more than fair rate for 2026, and it gives Duran the confidence that the Red Sox, for the time being, believe in him. However, my gut tells me there’s more to this deal than we see on the surface. Duran is entering his age-28 season and has an option for his age-29 season; he will reenter the arbitration process as a 30-year-old. If recent free agency has proven anything, teams are hesitant to pay for players entering their 30s, especially the Red Sox. I can’t foresee the team wanting to make a multi-million dollar commitment to anyone in arbitration in their age 30 and 31 seasons. I’ll preface this next statement by saying I don’t agree with it, but it seems like this deal makes Duran the odd man out in the outfield for the next two seasons. Should a team call about him, my gut says he will be available for the right price. There has been a very recent vote of confidence in Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu has survived the trade market, and Roman Anthony is primed to make his big league debut sometime in 2025. If the Red Sox are serious about a major youth movement to drive them to title contention, it’s not difficult to see why Duran may be the one on the outside looking in as we get further down the road. Duran is locked into a team-friendly deal for the next two years unless things go incredibly sideways this season. Look for him to continue to pay dividends for the Red Sox this season and make this deal look like the biggest underpay of the offseason. View full article

The Boston Red Sox drafted Conrad Cason in the eighth round of the 2024 draft, and they're going to let him play as both a pitcher and a shortstop. According to Chris Smith of MassLive, the Red Sox are preparing to enter spring training with Conrad Cason as a true two-way player. This arguably makes Cason, an 18-year-old whom the Sox took in the eighth round of the draft, the most interesting player to watch once he arrives in Fort Myers in February. Although the practice is slowly becoming more common around the league thanks to the monumental success of Shohei Ohtani, no other two-way player has found success yet. Kansas City's Michael Lorenzen attempted to pitch himself as a two-way player during free agency, but that was mainly as a roster manipulation strategy. As Cason is a teenager without any professional experience, projecting him to be an impact two-way player is tough, but there’s some belief that he will jump the Florida Complex League and start his professional career with the low-A Salem Red Sox. That’s a pretty high vote of confidence for a teenager. We’ve already briefly profiled Cason here at Talk Sox, but for those unfamiliar with him, he was a four-sport star for the Greater Atlanta Christian School in Norcross, Georgia. During his senior year, the 6-foot-2 Cason led the school to a regional title and was named the stat's Gatorade Player of the Year, with good reason. He went 7-1 an absurd 0.48 ERA as a pitcher, and batted .364 with three home runs and a .519 on-base percentage. He signed a letter of intent to play at Mississippi State, but chose to sign with the Sox. He was drafted as a pitcher/shortstop who sits around 92-95 mph with his fastball, but tops out in the high 90s. He’s an athletic shortstop who could shift to center field if necessary and has quite a bit of pop in his bat, especially to the pull side. (Plus, he’s right handed, and these days, it never hurts to be a righty hitter in the Boston system.) Cason is extremely young, and the two-way plan presumably makes his path too the majors even longer. However, he should be extremely fun to watch. The allure of a pitcher touching 100 mph on the radar gun while being able to turn around and hit for power was too much to pass up, and the Red Sox are hoping their bet pays off. Despite his age, Cason is a prospect to keep on your radar for the upcoming season. If his status as a two-way player can stick, the Red Sox may just have the next big thing on their hands. View full article

David Sandlin, Talk Sox Podcast MVP

The Red Sox locked in salaries for three of their four arbitration-eligible players but failed to reach an agreement with All-Star Jarren Duran. Do they have room to keep adding? On Thursday, the Boston Red Sox avoided arbitration by agreeing to 2025 salaries for three of their four arb-eligible players: Garrett Crochet ($3.8 million), Tanner Houck ($3.95 million), and Kutter Crawford ($2.75 million). This means that the entire starting rotation is locked into deals for the 2025 season. However, the Red Sox are headed to arbitration with Jarren Duran. Before we dive into what this means for each player, a quick refresher on arbitration: The arbitration system is spelled out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the owners and the Players Association, and it is a way of artificially suppressing salaries for younger players. This appeals both to veteran players (who make up most of the union reps and who feel that they have earned the right to make more) and to owners (who never want to pay anyone). According to the CBA, any player with three years of service time may submit the issue of the Player’s salary to final and binding arbitration without the consent of the club. In simpler terms, the player comes to the team with a number they want to be paid and the team has a number they want to pay the player. If they can find common ground between the two numbers, then they sign a one-year deal and everyone moves on. If they can't agree to terms, both sides submit a number and present a case to an independent arbitrator, who picks one of the two numbers. It doesn’t always come to this though. Even if the team and player do not agree on a number before the deadline, they can agree at any point before the hearings begin later this month. Back to the Red Sox, according to MLB Trade Rumors Tanner Houck was projected to receive $4.49 million, Kutter Crawford was projected for $3.5 million, and Garrett Crochet was projected for $2.9 million. Unsurprisingly, Crochet was paid more than his projection, likely as a sign of good faith as the two sides begin negotiations for a possible extension. Houck and Crawford both came in under their projections though. Obviously, the Red Sox value both pitchers very highly and Houck became the de facto ace of the staff last season, so it’s a bit surprising to see his actual number come in below his projection. Crawford’s number is more in line with his production, especially considering that he led the league in home runs allowed in 2024. The difference between Duran’s ask and the team's number is $500,000. Duran came in at $4 million and the Red Sox came in at $3.5 million. Haggling over such a small amount from the best player on the 2024 team isn’t a good look, but it’s not all bad news, as an agreement can still be reached before the two sides head to a hearing. It's important to keep in mind just how underpaid Duran will be either way. Last year, Duran made $760,000 despite the fact that, according to FanGraphs, his on-field value came to a staggering $53.9 million. These agreements obviously have impacts on the payroll moving forward. According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox currently have a projected payroll of $171 million after the agreements, coming in at $13 million less than their 2024 mark. This leaves plenty of room for the Red Sox add an impact bullpen arm or a right-handed hitter without a year-over-year increase in payroll. It also puts them third in the AL East in terms of money spent, leading both the small market teams of Baltimore and Tampa Bay, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Lastly, it leaves them nearly $40 million shy of the first luxury tax threshold, which the team publicly said it would not be afraid to cross. The front office has been extremely clear about its desire to compete, and the best way to do that is to spend money when necessary. It’s now necessary. There is ample room in the payroll to add both a right-handed bat and a high-leverage bullpen arm. Agreeing to terms with three of the four arbitration-eligible players is great, but haggling with Duran is decidedly less so. Here’s to hoping the Red Sox and Duran can come to an agreement before the arbitration hearings later this month. Many thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, FanGraphs, Cot’s Baseball Contracts, for being invaluable resources. View full article

With so much smoke, it's getting harder to believe that there's no fire. The Red Sox seem eager to ship out the young slugger, but doing so would hurt the major league roster. I’m going to start this off by saying that I absolutely do not want to trade Triston Casas for pretty much anyone who isn’t named Vladamir Guerrero Jr. To me, there’s very little benefit in getting rid of a young, potential All-Star-caliber first baseman. The only trade that makes sense is to send him to Toronto straight up for Vladdy with the promise of an extension as soon as his plane touches down at Logan. That’s not going to happen, so Casas shouldn’t be traded. If the constant swirl of rumors is to be believed even a little bit, however, the powers that be in Boston seem to disagree. Craig Breslow has said said publicly on more than one occasion that the Red Sox are not shopping Casas, and I’m sure that he didn’t draft an email to every GM in the league saying that Casas was on the trading block, but it’s starting to look obvious that Casas is likely to be involved in any major deal. In rumors, he’s been attached to the Mariners, Cardinals, and Marlins, and it’s been reported that the reason the Red Sox haven’t signed Alex Bregman because Casas is still on the roster. That's one way to drive a wedge between the team and an up-and-coming, homegrown star. It boggles the mind to think that someone with the potential Casas has shown could fall so far out of favor that the team is willing to sell low or attach him to Masataka Yoshida in a salary dump. The market for first basemen is about as stagnant as pond water; just ask Pete Alonso. Selling a cost-controlled Casas to make room for a high-priced free agent like Bregman would be incredibly shortsighted. The organization has very few options who could step up to play first base to begin the season should Casas be traded away. Blaze Jordan hasn’t done enough in the minors to warrant a look, and as it stands right now the only free agent you’d even think about looking at would be Pete Alonso. That’s not a perfect fit either, although his right-handed power would play well in Boston. The other side of this is that on some level, regardless of how laid back Casas seems, having his name constantly brought up in rumors can't be helping his relationship with the team. Would you enjoy going to work every day if you kept hearing that the people above you saw you as expendable? Casas is confident in his abilities, but even the strongest-willed person would be subject to questioning themselves after months of this. I asked Maddie Landis, co-host of the Talk Sox Podcast and our resident Triston Casas super fan, to chime in on this, and I thought she brought up some incredibly valid points: “Casas has the potential to hit 40+ home runs and trading him for *insert pretty much any name that isn’t Vladdy* leaves a sizable hole in the lineup.” That’s spot on. Trading someone with the power and bat-to-ball skills as Casas leaves Rafael Devers as sole power threat currently on the roster. It makes the Red Sox a weaker team offensively, and while the pitching staff has been much improved, you can’t win games if you can’t score runs. While Alex Bregman or Nolan Arenado would improve the infield defense, they can’t replace the power that Casas would take with him elsewhere. At the end of the day, the team will do whatever it feels it has to do with Triston Casas, but selling on him when his value is at an all-time low without a ready replacement would be shortsighted. Even if the rumors that Vladamir Guerrero Jr. wants to come to Boston are true, there isn’t much in recent organizational history that points toward the deal actually getting done. If the rumors are to be believed at all, the organization seems intent to trading Casas to the highest bidder, even if that bid is a drastic underpay, and if they do it they’ll regret it by the end of the season. View full article

Craig Breslow gave both pitchers a public vote of confidence last week, but coming off internal brace procedures, what will they be able to contribute in 2025? Last week, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow met with the media over Zoom to discuss the remaining items on the team's offseason to-do list. During the call, he mentioned that both Lucas Giolito and Garrett Whitlock should be available to pitch for most or all of the season, with Whitlock pitching out of the bullpen in a "leverage bulk role." This is undoubtedly good news, but both pitchers are coming off lost seasons and will need to work back up to full strength before they can be considered integral parts of the pitching staff. What can we expect their roles to be this season? Lucas Giolito The Red Sox signed Giolito before the 2024 season hoping that he could help anchor what was then a relatively young starting rotation. He never made it out of spring training, as an elbow injury required an internal brace procedure that kept him on the IL for the entire season. Still, Giolito spent time around the team and lent a veteran ear to those around him. Coming into 2025, Giolito himself says he is on track to have a full spring training and to go into the season ready to take on a starter’s full workload. Giolito struggled mightily in 2022 and 2023, combining for a 4.89 ERA and 4.70 FIP. However, from 2019 to 2021, those numbers were 3.47 and 3.54. It's unreasonable to ask Giolito to come back as the very best version of himself, but if he can bounce back to something approximating his old form, that would be a big win for the Red Sox. Even as he struggled over his past two seasons, he ran encouraging whiff and strikeout rates. We don’t know how his elbow will respond to a starter’s workload, and the team will try to manage his innings. Giolito should be one of many beneficiaries of the rumored six-man rotation, even though he has said he prefers preparing under the standard five-rotation schedule. Look for Giolito to slot in as a back-end starter for the Red Sox this season. If he fails to reach 140 innings in 2024, Giolito's contract gives the Red Sox a team option for 2026. He'll have a lot to pitch for this season.. Garrett Whitlock What exactly is a "bulk leverage reliever?" On paper, it makes some sense for Whitlock. He has starting experience and should be used to throwing multiple innings, even out of the bullpen. In my opinion, though, that’s a waste of Whitlock's ability. He has proven to be a dominant reliever in the recent past. Whitlock has a career 4.29 ERA as a starter, compared to 2.65 as a reliever. Giving him a full offseason to work with Andrew Bailey and letting him prepare to be a reliever is the best way forward for the Red Sox here. Whitlock only has nine saves in his career, but he very easily could be the first person to take the mound in the ninth inning once the coaching staff decides that Liam Hendriks is not the closer they had once hoped he would be. Whitlock isn’t a flame-throwing, strikeout pitcher (though his career strikeout rate jumps from 22% as a starter to 28% as a reliever). He tends to pitch to contact, and with a renewed focus on infield defense and a healthy Trevor Story, that should be a more successful strategy in 2025. That should allow Whitlock to feel comfortable stepping to the mound with the game on the line in the ninth inning, and barring another injury, that’s the exact position the Red Sox should hope for him to be in at some point during the 2025 season. It's not particularly comforting that the Red Sox are relying on so many pitchers with Tommy John surgeries or internal brace procedures in their recent past. All the same, Giolito and Whitlock have had enough success in recent memory that they're good bets to contribute as the team attempts to return to contention. View full article

Really appreciate the kind words. We're working hard to carve out our own space in the Sox podcast world.

Also, thanks for listening to the pod! Hope you're enjoying it.

You're correct. My fingers get going faster than my eyes sometimes. Thanks for catching that.

No hatred for Rob at all. I actually like him as a player but I went with Gonzalez and Grissom on the bench because it wouldn't shock me for Grissom to get looks in the outfield as they try and find a role for him and I like the flexibility Gonzalez brings to the infield mix along with Hamilton. If the Sox keep Wilyer and Anthony ends up getting called up early in the season or possibly breaking camp with the big league club, Refsnyder is the odd man out.

The moves came quickly for the Red Sox in December and there's a very strong argument to be made that the team is in a much better position now than they were heading into the 2024 season. Let's take a quick look at the January projections before any other changes happen. There’s a lot to be excited about in 2025 for the Red Sox, but there are still some question marks and a couple of holes that need to be filled. Let’s get started by looking at the players on the team as of today. Lineup Jarren Duran, CF Rafael Devers, 3B Trevor Story, SS Triston Casas, 1B Masataka Yoshida, DH Wilyer Abreu, RF Connor Wong, C Kristian Campbell, 2B Ceddanne Rafaela, CF That’s right, I have Kristian Campbell breaking camp with the big league club. I fully believe that entering camp there will be a competition for the second base position between Campbell and Vaughn Grissom, and Campbell will light spring training on fire so thoroughly that the Red Sox have to start him on Opening Day. He will hit low in the lineup, at first, to ease him into the big leagues, but as his bat comes around he will move higher into the lineup later in the season. Trevor Story hitting third in the lineup doesn’t serve as protection for Rafael Devers at first, but as long as he stays healthy then his righty swing will end up benefiting Devers in the long run. Bench Carlos Narváez, C Vaughn Grissom, Util David Hamilton, Util Romy Gonzalez, Util That’s a lot of utility players, but in modern baseball, that’s what your bench should be stocked with. Carlos Narváez will back up Connor Wong and spell him during slumps, but he’s here for his defense and not his bat. When there’s speed on the bases late in games, Alex Cora is bound to swap catchers to give his team a better chance to get outs on the basepaths. Vaughn Grissom has played second and shortstop but should be looked at as someone who can slot into third base at times and my assumption is we will see him get some time in left field during spring training to make him more of a utility type of player. David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez can play all over the infield and add another burst of speed coming off the bench when necessary. Starting Rotation Garrett Crochet, LHP Tanner Houck, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP While there’s talk of a six-man rotation, including from Craig Breslow himself, I don’t expect that to actually happen with any regularity. There may be some long stretches without off days where the Sox go to a sixth starter to give everyone an extra day of rest, especially considering that three of the six starters are likely to have some kind of leash on them as they return to form. Still, I actually think Kutter Crawford is the odd man out here. When push comes to shove, Lucas Giolito was brought here to start and if the Red Sox go with a five-man rotation, Crawford seems the obvious candidate to head to the bullpen. There could be an argument to be made for Brayan Bello to be that guy, but Boston didn’t give him an extension and hand him the ball to start the season in 2024 for him to be relegated to the bullpen already. Bullpen Liam Hendriks, RHP Aroldis Chapman, LHP Justin Slaten, RHP Garrett Whitlock, RHP Justin Slaten, RHP Justin Wilson, LHP Luis Guerrero, RHP The bullpen is still probably the shakiest group on the roster. The team needs one more big-time, high-leverage type arm to help replace Chris Martin and Kenley Janson. Luckily, there is quite a bit to like about what we’re already seeing though. Liam Hendriks is likely your Opening Day closer because the organization thinks highly of him and that’s his natural position, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if that spot went to someone else by the end of May. Justin Slaten seems primed to take over the closer role at some point, and that seems to be the safer long-term move. Chapman should work as the seventh or eighth-inning setup man, Whitlock will be used as long relief, Guerrero showed enough at the end of last season to be trusted to get outs, and Wilson will work as a left-handed specialist when needed. There’s a lot of like in the bullpen, but additions will help to shore up the 'pen and help to settle the fanbase. We’ll have more roster projections as the offseason continues to unfold, so keep an eye out for them. For now though, what are your thoughts as the team currently stands? Should Grissom get the nod over Campbell? Does Roman Anthony deserve to break camp with the big league club too? Let us know. View full article

With the St. Louis Cardinals looking to unload Nolan Arenado, the Red Sox should answer their call. According to Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of Masslive.com, the Boston Red Sox are a ‘preferred destination’ for third baseman Nolan Arenado. The Red Sox and Arenado have been linked since the start of the offseason, when the Cardinals decided to make him available for trade as they began an organizational overhaul. But does Nolan Arenado actually make sense for the Red Sox? In 2024 Arenado slashed .272/.322/.394, which is a respectable slash line for anyone, but with a 102 wRC+, it makes him almost exactly a league-average hitter. In his age-33 season, he put up the lowest slugging percentage, lowest hard-hit rate, and lowest average exit velocity of his entire career. That said, the decline might not be as big an issue as it seems at first blush. When we overlay his 2024 spray chart on Fenway Park, a new story emerges. All of a sudden, those long outs turn into home runs and doubles off the Green Monster. All of a sudden, instead of talking about an aging hitter with limited power, we’re talking about someone with a swing tailor-made for Fenway Park. We're talking about a player who can revitalize his career playing next to former teammate Trevor Story, because you wouldn’t trade for a 10-time Gold Glover only to shift him into a position he’s never professionally played, right? Right? However, the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily be bringing Arenado in for his bat. They'd bring him in to bolster the infield defense, and that would mean moving Rafael Devers off third base. In order for an Arenado trade to make any kind of sense, one player in particular would have to be headed back to St. Louis: Masataka Yoshida. Moving Yoshida would allow Devers to slide over to DH and focus on what he does well: mashing. The price would be steep. To get it done, the Red Sox would have to be fine with alienating the face of the franchise with nine years left on his contract, and they'd have to be fine with overpaying Arenado for three decline years. Beacuse the Cardinals are looking to shed salary and pick up prospects, the Red Sox would likely have to pay part of Yoshida's contract down, which means they'd essentially be paying Arenado even more than the $74 million currently left on his contract. However, I would argue that the price is worth paying for massive upgrades at DH and on defense at third base. It might even be worth attaching someone like Wilyer Abreu or Ceddanne Rafaela to Yoshida, especially with Roman Anthony likely awaiting an early season call-up, if he doesn’t make a case to be on the big league roster in spring training. Trading for three years of Arenado makes far more sense than signing free agent Alex Bregman to a seven-year deal, but it has to be the right deal to bring him to Boston. The wrong deal could make the team worse, and it could create yet another gaping hole elsewhere on the diamond. View full article

Alex Bregman would seem to solve some issues for the Red Sox, but do they actually need him? At this point, the name most often connected to the Red Sox on the free agent market is two-time World Series champion Alex Bregman. He’s a Gold Glove third baseman, a position where the Red Sox could use improvement, and he’s willing to move to second base should a team need him there. That sounds great on paper, but do the Red Sox actually need to sign Alex Bregman? First, let’s look at the rumored preferred contract for Bregman. The prevailing rumor is that he’s seeking a contract of seven years worth at least $200 million. That’s quite a large ask for someone going into their age-31 season. There’s no doubt that Bregman would be worth the first part of that contract if he were able to play his primary position, third base, for that entire span, but as the roster is currently constructed, third base still belongs to Rafael Devers for the foreseeable future. However, the back half of the contract would saddle the Red Sox with an aging star who very likely will fail to live up to expectations, potentially keeping the Red Sox from bringing in other big-name free agents down the line. Second, we want to look at Bergman’s numbers over the last few seasons. First, in 2024, Bregman ran his highest strikeout rate since 2020, coming in at 13.6%. That’s not an insane strikeout percentage, but the numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Even more concerning is his 6.9% walk rate, which is a disastrously big drop-off from the rates he's run every year since 2018. He's still got elite bat-to-ball skills, but he's chasing more, which is a worrisome trend. Bregman has never crushed the ball, but he's succeeded by pulling the ball in the air and running excellent walk and strikeout rates. If he can't do that anymore, then he'll burn up a lot of his margin for error. Moreover, pitchers seem to be less afraid of him, as he just ran one of the highest zone rates of his entire career. If the Red Sox are investing seven years in a player, that player needs to be trending upwards for the majority of the contract, not downwards. Last, there’s a decent case to be made for letting Kristian Campbell and Vaughn Grissom compete for the starting second base spot in spring training. Campbell moved through the organization very quickly, but of all the high-level prospects in the system, Campbell seems the most ready to make the jump to the majors. If the Red Sox are serious upgrading their infield defense, there are ways to do it, but Bregman would represent a serious investment with serious risk. Although he brings an impressive amount of hardware and World Series experience with him, the Red Sox would be better served to look elsewhere for a defensive upgrade. View full article

A former All-Star and two-time World Series champion is headed to Boston. The Red Sox continue to add to the pitching depth of the organization and likely have rounded out the starting rotation for 2025. According to Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports, the team has signed Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05-million contract with incentives that could push its value higher. Buehler was one of the postseason heroes for the Los Angeles Dodgers, closing the door on the New York Yankees in Game 5. He looks to build on that performance with a one-year prove-it deal in Boston. The deal is currently pending a physical. From 2018 to 2021, Buehler was a dominant arm for the Dodgers. Over that period, he went 39-13, running with a 2.82 ERA and 3.16 FIP while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. He earned two All-Star selections and was named to All-MLB First Team in 2021. However, injuries derailed his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2022 (his second, after a 2016 UCL tear). He missed all of the 2023 season and returned in 2024, missing an additional 56 games due to hip inflammation. His combined numbers from before the injury in 2022 and 2024 are not as pretty. He went 7-9 and posted a 4.75 ERA and 4.74 FIP. His strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate all fell off. Toward the end of the season, though, Buehler seemed to figure things out. He was electric during the postseason, running a 3.60 ERA and allowing just one home run over four appearances. The Red Sox are hoping that they're getting that most recent version of Buehler. Adding Buehler to the rotation gives the Red Sox a pitcher with playoff experience, an important consideration considering the team's goals this season. In fact, in 19 postseason appearances and nearly 100 innings, Buehler is 4-1 with a 3.04 ERA. Buehler also represents another arm with injury concerns to go with Garrett Crochet. He represents yet another upside play, and another instance of the Red Sox betting on their training and pitching development staffs to get the best out of a player who has struggled recently. We will have much more on this deal later today and tomorrow. View full article

Connor Wong turned in the best offensive season of his career in 2024. Has he come into his own as a hitter or was he the beneficiary of good luck? With Kyle Teel headed to Chicago, Connor Wong is the catcher of both the present and the future for the Boston Red Sox. In 2024, he had a full-on breakout season. In 2023, Wong's first full season in the big leagues, he slashed .235/.288/.385 for a wRC+ of 78. In 2024, Wong blew those numbers out of the water, slashing .280/.333/.425 with a 110 wRC+. Not only was that an enormous improvement, but it made him the seventh-best hitting catcher in baseball (minimum 400 plate appearances). While he had a couple of dry spells throughout the season, Wong could be counted on when he stepped to the plate. He peppered the Green Monster with doubles, and all but one of his 13 home runs were to the pull side. His 11.9% pulled fly ball rate put him in the 77th percentile, which made him a great fit for Fenway Park. What caused this offensive surge? Let’s take a look, keeping an eye out for indications that it will or won't be sustainable as we head into 2025. The first thing we notice when we compare the two seasons is that Wong lowered his strikeout rate by nearly 10 points from 2023 to 2024, going from 33.3% to 23.5%. His 29.5% chase rate is also uncomfortably high, but it's a drop of five percentage points from last season, and that's an enormous improvement. Wong also increased his contact rate on pitches in the zone. Those kinds of gains in plate discipline are extremely encouraging; they speak to seeing the ball better and making better swing decisions, and they tend to carry over from one season to the next. Wong is being more selective, and that allows him to get deeper into counts and to swing at pitches that give him a better chance to do damage. That’s the type of hitter the Red Sox hope Wong can be throughout his tenure in Boston. However, the strikeout rate doesn’t tell the entire story. Swinging at better pitches and making more contact in the zone is usually a recipe for hitting the ball harder, but Wong's contact quality numbers fell off in a big way. His average exit velocity fell all the way to the 11th percentile and his 34.% hard-hit rate put him in the 20th. He just didn't seem to have the top-end power that he flashed in previous seasons, and that is a very concerning development. Wong also appeared to get very lucky in 2024. His .348 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), was the seventh-highest in baseball. In fact, over the past five seasons, only one catcher has run a higher BABIP. Wong's .330 wOBA was also a whopping 41 points higher than his .289 xwOBA. Among batters who made at least 400 plate appearances, that was the second-highest gap in baseball. Look how far he is into the lucky side of this graph. If he's any closer to the dotted line that shows his expected performance, Wong's season looks very, very different. That kind of overperformance just isn't sustainable. Counting on luck to continue season after season is something that can’t happen on a major league baseball team. That’s not to say that Wong won’t be a contributing member of the team and counted on to come through in big situations, but his luck is bound to run out at some point. It's important to note that by most metrics, Wong made great strides at the plate in 2024. That's huge, and if his exit velocity numbers bounce back up, there's genuine reason to expect him to keep improving. All the same, it wouldn't be reasonable to expect him to keep outperforming his underlying numbers by so much. The hope should be that last season's success inspires Wong to continue being selective with his swings and keep abusing the Green Monster. However, we should expect him to regress season in 2025. That’s something the Red Sox, who are serious about contending, can’t afford. Let’s all hope that Wong believes in his offensive breakout from 2024 and does everything necessary to make it look like the first in a long line of successful seasons behind the dish in Boston. View full article