It Really Seems Like Trading Triston Casas Is a Foregone Conclusion

Not sold on the foregone conclusions aspect either…

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Doesn't seem to be any doubt they've been dangling him, but completing a deal is a whole other story.  Especially with the Sox these days, it seems...

We get a lot of foregone conclusions these days.  And not even just talking about the contributors to this site.

Google around and were trading Casas and Yoshida, and signing Bregman and Tanner Scott.  And all this before 2pm today.  
 

Of course then reality sets in and no.  We’ve actually reached that lull in the off-season where no one is going anywhere.  It’s been in December the past few seasons. This year? Apparently post-holiday.

Still over half of the MLBTR top 50 are unsigned. And less than 5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report…

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

never underestimate the stupidity and cheapness of the Sox front office.

I don’t see how trading Casas, yet to reach his arb years, constitutes cheapness.  Unless the counter argument is the Sox should just release Yoshida.  
 

As for the stupidity of it, I’d at least want to see what he gets dealt for.  But on this thread, Casas is a vital cog to the offense?  There’s another one where he’s an unreliable klutz who can’t swing a bat without ending up on the injured list…

16 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

many believe Casas has huge potential and trading him now would be selling low. but, like you said, i'd want to see what he might get dealt for. there was a rumor that the Mariners turned down a Casas for Castillo trade and i'm glad they did. stupid move on their part. but what is equally stupid is the Red Sox even making this offer -basically giving away Casas for nothing when they could have signed a FA for the same money or less. btw... Castillo's bWAR last year was the same as Pivetta. 

Seattle turned that deal down because Boston was including Yoshida and his $55.6 mill remaining on his deal…

6 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

well if adding a huge salary like Bregman to replace Casas that certainly makes the Sox dumb but certainly not cheap. I agree that Vladdy is the only player I trade Casas for but probably best to just wait till he's a FA and open the wallet { are you listening John Henry?].  That way Dever, Casas, and Vladdy can divvy up 3B, 1B, and DH. FORGET Bregman.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. has one year left on his deal and has set his contract price in the $450mill range.  Also, if Vlad was an option at 3b, Toronto would have kept him there.   They  didn’t move Guerrero to 1b to accommodate Ernie Clement…

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

never underestimate the stupidity and cheapness of the Sox front office.

But Casas is cheap and will continue to be cheap through his arb years, if he keeps missing time.

To me, he's poised for a major bust out year, if he can just stay healthy.

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You know what fans are like.  We fixate on weaknesses.  Casas's defense has been very disappointing and his durability does seem a bit in question.  On the flip side he has great power and an excellent approach at the plate.

Making him the DH or co-DH with Devers, helps improve the 1B defense but keeps his bat around.

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You know what fans are like.  We fixate on weaknesses.  Casas's defense has been very disappointing and his durability does seem a bit in question.  On the flip side he has great power and an excellent approach at the plate.

It seems like fans fixate on weaknesses they don’t like or weaknesses on players they don’t like.  I will admit when it comes to Casas, but I don’t like his defense or his durability.  But yes, he can hit…

Nobody can possible like the defense by Casas or Devers or Wong, Yoshida and Ref. Some accept it more easily than others, and when their offense is good enough to outweigh the poor or awful defense they can overlook the defense.

The problem with having 4 guys who are best utilized as a DH is obvious: only one can be the DH on any given day. Yoshida mucks up the whole works. It's hard to just dump $18M x 3 years, just to improve 1B defense by moving Casas to DH. If we knew Devers was way better on defense at 1B than Casas, adding a 3Bman could fix two corner IF defense issues with one move, but we don't know this. Also, to do this, we'd have to pay a cost to add a 3Bman (money for Bregman or Arenado or players to trade for someone else.) Plus, we'd have to find a taker for Yoshida- newsflash: there are none, or GASP... play Yoshida in LF, which now turns that position into a weak D spot.

I doubt a Yoshida for Arenado trade can happen. STL would not save enough money, and that is the whole reason they want to trade him. That forces the talk to trading Casas. To me, we won't get back what Casas is worth, so it's a no, to me. That forces running back the same corner IF issues on D. YUCK!

f*** Arenado.  He stopped hitting 2 years ago and has 3 years left.  For the last 2 years, his OPS+ is 104 and his remaining contract is $65mill.  Why would anyone trade $10mill more for league average production?  Just bench Yoshida and play Grissom at 3b, and it’s close enough while being much, much easier to undo..

And if the Sox are going to (hopefully) upgrade the 3b defense and not trade Casas, then just bench Yoshida.  We’re long past the point where his $18mill salary isn’t even considered expensive.  Teams are benching players with similar salaries around the league.  It’s not even a big deal anymore… 

13 minutes ago, notin said:

It seems like fans fixate on weaknesses they don’t like or weaknesses on players they don’t like.  I will admit when it comes to Casas, but I don’t like his defense or his durability.  But yes, he can hit…

Of course a team can get much better by seriously upgrading a position that is already pretty good, but it makes sense to assess your team, on paper, by identifying your weakest areas, identifying any in organization solutions possible, and then prioritizing which fixes are most needed and most easily fixed. That depends on who is available on the FA market or via trade.

To me, we started the winter wit these major needs, put in order by me:

1. Pen and not just replacing Jansen & Martin, because it sucked, even with them, esp 2nd half of '24.

2. Rotation and not just replacing Pivetta.

3. Catcher defense.

4. Corner IF defense

5. RHB, which could be a catcher or 3Bman that fixes #3 or #4, at the same time.

What did we do, so far?

#1  We added Chapman & Wilson and are counting on Hendriks & Whitlock and depth to make 2025 better. I'd say that is being overly optimistic, and we need to do better than just a slight improvement on paper, even if almost everything goes right.

#2 I was not thrilled with the Buehler and Sandoval signings (about $40M spent on 2024 and 2025 for one pitcher each year,) but I was pleasantly shocked that we added more than one SP'er. We essentially added Crochet, Buehler, Giolito and 1/2 Sandoval for 2025 and Crochet & Sandoval for 2025. I call this as a surprising and major improvement. A+ to Brez & Co, here.

#3, #4 and #5 have seen nothing. Maybe Narvaez can replace Jansen's defense, but we still could use a boost at any or all of these need areas as well as a closer addition. I put our needs like this, now:

1. Closer

2. RHB (since fixing defense is complicated by Yoshida's contract and entrenchment at DH.)

3. Defense at 3B, 1B and C (in that order, since I like Narvaez.)

Adding a plus RHB at C or 3B could fix #2 and part of #3 with one move or signing. Signing someone like Alfonso and trading Casas for a closer or Catcher or a catcher and decent RP'er might work, but we'll have added a ton of money to a position (1B) that was not a weak area on offense.

To me, the easiest fix might be to sign Scott and trade Abreu for a good defensive catcher or a RHB, or both, if we add more to the trade, like Abreu and Cespedes for Willson Contreras. Give the RF job to Anthony or put Rafaela out there and Anthony in CF.

11 minutes ago, notin said:

f*** Arenado.  He stopped hitting 2 years ago and has 3 years left.  For the last 2 years, his OPS+ is 104 and his remaining contract is $65mill.  Why would anyone trade $10mill more for league average production?  Just bench Yoshida and play Grissom at 3b, and it’s close enough while being much, much easier to undo..

And if the Sox are going to (hopefully) upgrade the 3b defense and not trade Casas, then just bench Yoshida.  We’re long past the point where his $18mill salary isn’t even considered expensive.  Teams are benching players with similar salaries around the league.  It’s not even a big deal anymore… 

A 104 OPS+ is not really "stopped hitting," but he is likely to keep falling, and maybe even sharply.

2023-2024 Arenado Rankings at 3B:

7th in fWAR (6.2, aided by his plus-plus D) 6th on D and 14th on O at 3B

12th in OPS .757

14th wRC+ 107 and 14th in wOBA at .257

He's been about average on offense among starting 3B. The issue is a continuing trend.

The MLB 3B average was a 97 wRC+ and a .701 OPS

1 minute ago, harmony said:

The FanGraphs projections currently assign Red Sox batters a negative 17.8 fielding score, including a negative 11 score for Connor Wong alone:

 https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL

That might help explain why FanGraphs ranks Red Sox position players 14th in the American League in projected overall 2025 WAR.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#ALL

As points of reference, FanGraphs assigns 2025 fielding scores of a positive 11.2 for the Yankees, a negative 1.8 for the Orioles, a negative 5.0 for the Astros and a positive 7.1 for the Mariners.

 

The Sox need a catcher, a 3b, and another bullpen arm wouldn’t hurt.  Unless it’s Chase Anderson…

It all comes down to the Yoshida situation. As long as we cannot or will not trade him and refuse to play him in LF (not a bad choice,) we have our hands tied. We'd have to trade Casas to move Devers to 1B.

I think the catcher position might be less complex, but it's not like teams want to trade a catcher. It is a position with very few plus-plus players. Only a handful of teams have 2 or more decent batting and defensive catchers. Wong is a plus hitting catcher, so there are not many out there that would stay even on O or improve it while being a much better defender. 

STL is looking to cut salary and has decent catcher depth in Pages and Herrera. Trading for Willson would help fix the RHB issue, but maybe only slightly improve the defense. He's owed $18M x 3, so maybe we would not have to give much up to get him. We could also try to get one of their other catchers,

HOU has a very good defensive back-up catcher in Caratini, but he only has one year of control. They will not trade Y Diaz.

Who else is out there? (I still think we should have just signed Jansen, but maybe Narvaez can impress us.)

Scott seems like the easiest fix to our major need areas. We don't have to give up anything and would still be under the tax line. It might force a Crochet extension to start in 2026 or 2027, but it looks like the best idea to me.

If the price comes down on Bregman, or he takes a 1 year deal to rebuild value, maybe he'd like to come to Fenway to boost his numbers for next winter's market. A one year deal would likely put us over the tax line.

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

A 104 OPS+ is not really "stopped hitting," but he is likely to keep falling, and maybe even sharply.

2023-2024 Arenado Rankings at 3B:

7th in fWAR (6.2, aided by his plus-plus D) 6th on D and 14th on O at 3B

12th in OPS .757

14th wRC+ 107 and 14th in wOBA at .257

He's been about average on offense among starting 3B. The issue is a continuing trend.

The MLB 3B average was a 97 wRC+ and a .701 OPS

 

After 10 years of a 123 OPS+, two years of 104 is a massive reduction in hitting.   And he’s not likely to get better from ages 34-36.

Now Bregman might make more sense.  Sure you’ll need to sign him for 3 years at the end of his deal when he goes into declined.  But at least you get the 4 years upfront when he contributes.  With Arenado, you’re just skipping to those last few unproductive years…