Alex Mayes

After dropping a four-game series in New York and a three-game series in Tampa, the Red Sox find themselves on the outside looking in, with fewer and fewer opportunities to qualify for the postseason. Still, this season should be considered a success. The team has hung around the playoff picture for longer than it did in previous years, and it did so with a patchwork starting rotation, a bullpen that punched above its weight for part of the season, and two cornerstone infielders spending the vast majority of on their time on the injured list. Let’s give Craig Breslow, Alex Cora, his staff, and even Chaim Bloom some credit. They took what many expected to be a lost season and turned it into a campaign full of fun games and meaningful September baseball. Speaking of those cornerstone infielders, it's fair to wonder what the season would have been like had Trevor Story and Triston Casas not gone down early in the year. Story injured his non-throwing shoulder on April 5 in what was described at the time as a season-ending injury. His return to the lineup on September 7 was viewed as a veteran-leader move. A left rib strain put Casas on the shelf from April 21 until August 16. While much has been made of his mental practice swings and weapon-based pain scale, the loss of a powerful left-handed bat was a big one. Rafael Devers became the team's primary power threat, with no protection behind him in the lineup. Both players have returned with varying degrees of success. They are making the plays you expect them to make at their positions, but their offense still hasn't gotten healthy. Story has been just a hair below average, but Casas is running a 91 wRC+ since his return, a far cry from the 129 he put up last season. I started wondering what the 2025 season could hold for Story and Casas. Both are expected to play huge roles in Boston for the foreseeable future, even if a certain author believes Story makes more sense as a sell-low trade chip. Can their brief returns to the lineup can tell us anything as we look to next season? Story’s lack of offense is nothing new to the Red Sox faithful. Since his return, he's batting .258 with a 98 wRC+, which makes for roughly league-average production. He’s recently found a slight power surge, though one of the homers got some help from Yankee Stadium's short porch. Still, the eye test shows a hitter who is making more soft contact than hard. He has an 85.1-mph average exit velocity and a 24.5% hard-hit rate this season, and the EV figure is even lower since his return from injury. Both of those numbers are catastrophically low, by far the worst of Story's career. His spray chart reveals very few balls hit deep into the outfield. For a second straight season, the hope is that a full offseason of workouts will get Story back in All-Star form with the bat. Sure, it’s an incredibly small sample size but the 82.6-mph average exit velocity he's run since his return — the fourth-lowest among all qualified players over that stretch — leaves you with a sense of longing rather than hope. The flip side is his glove still plays. He makes both the routine and flashy plays look easy, and that’s exactly what you want your shortstop to do. It’s no secret that shortstop has been a point of contention among Boston fans since the team signed Story and Xander Bogaerts departed for San Diego a year later. Story’s inability to stay on the field has shined a new light on just how valuable even a league-average shortstop is to a team with postseason aspirations. There has been a noticeable shift when he's been on the dirt, as his attitude and leadership have settled and calmed the infield. You know that if a ball is rocketed to short, Story will field it smoothly and make the play. His teammates don’t have to worry about whether a last-minute hop will squirt past him or that he'll airmail the throw to first. The sample of 19 games is tiny, but according to both DRS and Statcast's Feilding Run Values, he's already saved two runs, an elite pace. You can’t say that about anyone else who has played up the middle in Boston this season. There’s no reason to expect his defense to take a considerable step backward next season. I still maintain he should be traded due to the influx of youth, but you can count on him to be the Opening Day shortstop who hits .250 at best but plays borderline Gold Glove defense. Pivoting to Triston Casas, our sample size isn’t huge, but it's bigger than Story’s. In the 23 games before his injury, Casas was running a 128 wRC+, and a 30.1% strikeout rate, essentially the same production he put up last year, but with more strikeouts. In the 31 games since his return, his wRC+ has fallen nearly 30 points to 91, and his strikeout rate has climbed to a precipitous 36.7%, fifth-highest among all qualified players over that period. Alex Cora has even taken to sitting Casas against lefty starters for the last two weeks, in favor of Connor Wong. Before the injury, Casas ran a 149 wRC+ against lefties and a 128 wRC+ against righties. Since his return, those numbers are 44 and 105. He deserves some time to figure things out, and he was probably rushed back a bit to help with the playoff hunt, but it’s becoming clearer that Casas isn’t going to return to form on offense this season. He’s hit three home runs since returning from injury, but his spray chart isn't pretty. On the other hand, Casas has looked like he’s taken a step forward on defense. He looks more comfortable, and he's picking balls you wouldn't have expected him to pick at the start of the season, though he has committed two errors since his return. Casas has always been a passable defender, but he looks like he’s coming into his own at first. There’s no reason to expect that Casas won't return to form on offense next year. He should step into the All-Star potential he’s shown when completely healthy. The question of what to expect from Story and Casas is one of many that faces the Red Sox this offseason. Will they find a way to acquire a true ace? What does the bullpen look like after the departures of Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen? How do they resolve the outfield logjam? We won't get any answers until November at the earliest. However, Story and Casas will be looked at as leaders of the infield every time they are in the lineup. Let’s just hope they're out there for longer next season. Maybe that’s the push this team needs to break back into the playoff scene.

The Red Sox awarded Brayan Bello a six-year, $55-million contract before the start of the 2024 season. While the deal was surprising, it signaled that the team believed that he could turn into a front-end starter based on last year’s starts. With Chris Sale gone and Lucas Giolito on the IL for the season, Bello was suddenly the Opening Day starter and the de facto ace of the staff. After a promising start to the season against what was supposed to be a potent Seattle offense, mid-game outbursts took over the headlines and a lack of maturity was blamed for his dip in performance. However, going into an July series in Miami, Alex Cora decided to give Bello multiple days off, in part, to reset his mind. It paid off. Bello turned in one of his best starts of the season, striking out seven Marlins over 6.2 innings and allowing seven hits, one walk, and one earned run. Although he's weathered some rough starts sin, Bello appeared to finally turn the corner that night in Miami, beginning his evolution into a potential top of the rotation piece; not an ace, but a number two starter. If we look at the numbers heading into that July 3 start, we see a starter still trying to figure it out. During that stretch, Bello started 14 games, going 7-5 with a 5.55 ERA and a 4.85 FIP. He averaged five innings a game and ran a K/9 of 8.07. Bello got knocked around a lot. When he would give up the long ball, he would sulk and slam his glove on the ground. Cora, who held Bello’s feet to the fire on more than one occasion over the last two seasons, never wavered in his belief of his young starter. Bello was held accountable, sure, but the trust was always there. Demonstrating that his strength as a personnel manager rivals his acumen as an in-game manager, Cora decided to give Bello an extra three days of rest and that proved to be the thing that locked everything into place. Beginning with that dominant performance against the Marlins, we see a vastly improved pitcher. Bello has gone 7-2, with a quality start in seven of his 14 starts. His K/9 is up to 8.63 while his ERA is down to 3.76 and his FIP to 3.82. Sure, the five walks against the Orioles were not ideal, but the command will improve with time. He’s shown flashes of the ability to combine two skills: inducing softly-hit grounders and making batters look foolish swinging at his sinker for strikeouts. A young, controlled pitcher who can do both and has the confidence of both the front office and the manager is not something to ignore. Bello is trending in the right direction. He doesn’t have to be the ace of the staff. The potential is there, but as long as the front office makes smart decisions and trades from the wealth of prospects to bolster the pitching staff this offseason, Bello can slot into the number two or three starter role and flourish. Who knows? He may just live up to the hype Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez heaped upon him this past offseason.

Ever since the reports came out Tuesday night that Rafael Devers spent 40 minutes sitting and staring at his locker, still in uniform, bat in hand, there’s been a conversation surrounding his role as the team's "leader" on and off the field. People are demanding that he be held accountable for not meeting with the media to discuss his own struggles at the plate and the struggles the team is currently facing. There are reports that even the organization is unhappy with his decision not to speak to the media. However, just because Devers is the highest-paid and best player on the roster does not mean he should be considered the vocal leader off the field. It was assumed that when Xander Bogaerts departed from free agency, his best friend on the team, Devers, would slide into his role as the vocal leader solely because of their relationship. Xander was always willing to speak to the media and had cultivated a positive relationship with them. He was also comfortable speaking to the media in English. Giving interviews and answering questions in English is not something Rafael Devers is comfortable doing. Raffy speaks English fairly comfortably, but when it comes to being on record, he prefers to use one of the translators employed by the team to ensure his thoughts are communicated clearly and correctly. Even still, we know that translators often have to make quick word substitutions, so their answers may not be the word-for-word thing they were initially told. To boot, the best player on the team has rarely been the face of the team with the media. When Mookie Betts was still here, who would the media speak to most often? Xander Bogaerts. While Xander was one of the top guys on the team, the expectation of Mookie being the one to face reporters often wasn’t there. Sure, Mookie speaks more than Raffy does, but that’s why people notice when Raffy does speak. Specifically, he sat down in February during Spring Training and said, “Everybody knows what we need. You know what we need. They know what we need.” We took notice specifically because that was not the standard Raffy response. Do we wish he would do that a bit more? Maybe. Should we demand him to? No. Rafael Devers was paid for two reasons. He hits, and he is a leader on the field. He posts almost every game. He plays through injury unless Alex Cora forces him to sit, but he is probably available off the bench in the right situation. As fans, we want to hear from our franchise’s stars, but not every star leads in the same way. Devers leads on the field, and that is all we need him to do.

The hiring of Andrew Bailey helped signal a change of guard with Red Sox pitching. Dave Bush was okay at best, and when looking at the successful pitchers that he could get nothing out of (I’m looking at you, Ryan Brasier) it was obvious that there was a disconnect somewhere in the pitcher's meetings and routines. The tandem of Bailey and Craig Breslow gave hope to the Sox faithful that maybe a focus on pitching was on the day one agenda. Although the second half of this season has been filled with once-reliable starters sprinting past their career innings high and bullpen implosion after bullpen implosion, there’s a reason for hope going into the 2025 season. We are looking at the season numbers, and we can see that despite the second-half issues, Bailey’s impact has been profound on the staff. With 22 games left in the season, there’s room for these numbers to change, but overall, we see positive growth from Dave Bush's last year to Andrew Bailey's first year. While there are some declines in performance, notably the drop in K/9 and WAR, BABIP is down, and the ERA has improved even with the second-half numbers factored in. To at least some degree, the Bailey lab is working. This led me to examine Bailey’s first two years as a pitching coach with the San Francisco Giants courtesy of FanGraphs' stat library. Although one was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, I was hoping the data from those two seasons could help provide the blueprint for the 2025 season in Boston. Taking into account a 60-game season in 2020, if we compare the 2019 pre-Bailey numbers to that season, we notice a decrease in WAR and an increase in ERA, K/9, and BB/9. However, from 2020 to 2021, the Giants had one of the best baseball pitching staffs, sporting a 22 WAR, a massively improved ERA, a lower BB/9, and a higher K/9. This shows that when surrounded by pitchers who buy into the system, there have been some rumblings of certain guys in the pen not fully believing in Bailey’s system. When given an entire off-season with a rotation intact, Bailey can indeed make magic on the pitching mound. Keeping in mind that the Sox went into the season with Lucas Giolito projected to be the actual number one pitcher of the staff, Tanner Houck fighting for a rotation spot, Brayan Bello stepping up into his brand new contract, and Garrett Whitlock being shuttled from the rotation to the pen. Back between injuries, it is no real surprise that Bailey's plans for the season went off the rails before the season could even get underway. Give him time to work his magic fully, he picked the Red Sox job over higher-profile offers for a reason. He sees something with the Red Sox pitching staff and believes reinforcements are coming. No one expected Houck to take a giant leap forward this season and force the conversation that his name should be in the rotation for as long as he is in Boston, but imagine this step with a healthy Giolito to help anchor the rotation. Looking at the blueprint, the future of the pitching staff looks bright with Andrew Bailey at the helm. As long as Craig Breslow is allowed to deal from Boston's prospect capital for young, controllable arms and Bailey has an entire offseason program to work his magic with the arms currently in the rotation, there’s reason to be optimistic about the future of this staff coming along at the same time the young core finally reaches the majors together. Hopefully, that paves the way back to AL East titles and World Series championships for many years to come.

There was some excitement when Trevor Story's deal was announced, even though the contract length looked maybe a year or two too long, and there were concerns about Story's numbers outside of Colorado. Writing about those feels like beating a dead horse, though. He’s here, and with how quickly news went from "we will see him with a full offseason to prepare for 2025" to "he could be here in September," it suddenly begs the question: how does he fit into a crowded infield for the remainder of this season and through the end of his contract in 2027, assuming his club option for 2028 is not picked up? Story’s base stats since he signed with the Red Sox don’t offer a full overview of what type of player he is. In 2022, the first year of the deal, he suited up for 94 games and hit .238 while battling hand and foot injuries throughout the season. In 2023, Tommy John's surgery limited him to just 43 games, in which he hit .203. Finally, this year, Story was on the field for eight games before a diving play resulted in a fracture to the glenoid in his left shoulder that required surgery. The typical timeline for recovery from such an injury is around six months. Before his deal in Boston, he was considered a top shortstop in the game. Many middle infielders have stepped up in the wake of Story’s injury. Notably, David Hamilton is manning a middle infield spot while Ceddanne Rafaela has been shuttled between center and shortstop. Add Vaughn Grissom, who is hanging out in Worcester, and Romy Gonzalez. You suddenly find yourself with multiple options for two positions, not counting Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell, who could be pushing for a roster spot in spring training next year. So where will this leave Trevor Story when he can return from his shoulder injury? If that is this season, you can’t put him at DH. His numbers from the last two seasons prove that Story’s best offering to this club is on the defensive side of the ball. The easy answer is to play him at his natural position, shortstop, and allow Ceddanne to shift back to his platinum glove position in center. However, it’s not easy because of his poor offensive performance. As long as Tyler O’Neill stays healthy enough to trot out to right field most days of the week, keeping Ceddanne at shortstop through the end of the season makes the most sense. Given this, Trevor Story should be used in a second-base platoon split with David Hamilton. Traditionally, Story has hit left-handed pitchers better than right-handed pitchers, so allowing him to platoon with Hamilton would play to his strengths while allowing him to ease back into the grind of the rest of the major league season. Beyond the end of this year, though, where Trevor Story fits on this roster is even cloudier. An aging shortstop who has noticeably lost offensive firepower and has questions surrounding his arm strength doesn’t fit with the emerging young core the Red Sox currently have. Designating him for assignment is out of the question, and his trade market during the offseason is currently non-existent. However, allowing him to platoon second and showcase that he still has some value in the trade market is, I think, the current plan here. If Story can get back on the field this season and prove he’s still got something left in the tank, there will be suitors. Not a lot, but some. The Red Sox will have to eat a chunk of that salary, which they should be okay with doing, to move on from a player who no longer fits the team's timeline. Who would those interested teams be? It's hard to predict this early in the process, but someone somewhere should be willing to take on Trevor Story at a discounted rate. Should those phone calls start coming in, Craig Breslow would be crazy not to answer them.