Where the Red Sox Stand After the Arbitration Deadline

On Thursday, the Boston Red Sox avoided arbitration by agreeing to 2025 salaries for three of their four arb-eligible players: Garrett Crochet ($3.8 million), Tanner Houck ($3.95 million), and Kutter Crawford ($2.75 million). This means that the entire starting rotation is locked into deals for the 2025 season. However, the Red Sox are headed to arbitration with Jarren Duran. Before we dive into what this means for each player, a quick refresher on arbitration:

The arbitration system is spelled out in the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the owners and the Players Association, and it is a way of artificially suppressing salaries for younger players. This appeals both to veteran players (who make up most of the union reps and who feel that they have earned the right to make more) and to owners (who never want to pay anyone). According to the CBA, any player with three years of service time may submit the issue of the Player’s salary to final and binding arbitration without the consent of the club. In simpler terms, the player comes to the team with a number they want to be paid and the team has a number they want to pay the player. If they can find common ground between the two numbers, then they sign a one-year deal and everyone moves on. If they can't agree to terms, both sides submit a number and present a case to an independent arbitrator, who picks one of the two numbers. It doesn’t always come to this though. Even if the team and player do not agree on a number before the deadline, they can agree at any point before the hearings begin later this month.

Back to the Red Sox, according to MLB Trade Rumors Tanner Houck was projected to receive $4.49 million, Kutter Crawford was projected for $3.5 million, and Garrett Crochet was projected for $2.9 million. Unsurprisingly, Crochet was paid more than his projection, likely as a sign of good faith as the two sides begin negotiations for a possible extension. Houck and Crawford both came in under their projections though. Obviously, the Red Sox value both pitchers very highly and Houck became the de facto ace of the staff last season, so it’s a bit surprising to see his actual number come in below his projection. Crawford’s number is more in line with his production, especially considering that he led the league in home runs allowed in 2024. The difference between Duran’s ask and the team's number is $500,000. Duran came in at $4 million and the Red Sox came in at $3.5 million. Haggling over such a small amount from the best player on the 2024 team isn’t a good look, but it’s not all bad news, as an agreement can still be reached before the two sides head to a hearing. It's important to keep in mind just how underpaid Duran will be either way. Last year, Duran made $760,000 despite the fact that, according to FanGraphs, his on-field value came to a staggering $53.9 million.

These agreements obviously have impacts on the payroll moving forward. According to FanGraphs, the Red Sox currently have a projected payroll of $171 million after the agreements, coming in at $13 million less than their 2024 mark. This leaves plenty of room for the Red Sox add an impact bullpen arm or a right-handed hitter without a year-over-year increase in payroll. It also puts them third in the AL East in terms of money spent, leading both the small market teams of Baltimore and Tampa Bay, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Lastly, it leaves them nearly $40 million shy of the first luxury tax threshold, which the team publicly said it would not be afraid to cross.

The front office has been extremely clear about its desire to compete, and the best way to do that is to spend money when necessary. It’s now necessary. There is ample room in the payroll to add both a right-handed bat and a high-leverage bullpen arm. Agreeing to terms with three of the four arbitration-eligible players is great, but haggling with Duran is decidedly less so. Here’s to hoping the Red Sox and Duran can come to an agreement before the arbitration hearings later this month.

Many thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, FanGraphs, Cot’s Baseball Contracts, for being invaluable resources.