I like your picks, Halladay might get in due his tragic death, I think he's borderline HOF, in normal circumstances he gets in after a few years in the ballot. I have the feeling Mussina will get the votes this year, if not, he will be very close.
Regarding the PED cheaters, I'd vote Bonds, Clemens and probably Manny, in my opinion they had HOF careers before the whole PED thing blew over.