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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    Maybe? or you roll with a 6 man rotation. Not for the whole season but teams employ that over a 1-2 month stretch much much more often than I realized until I looked into it. It makes sense. I mean if you're superstitious, wouldn't you be concerned with another Sox pitcher going down? pitchers go down like flies nowadays and we've ran through all our depth. We could also (or in addition to a starter) pick up another guy who has options who can go up/down.
  2. Hugh2
    Castillo has a 4.85 ERA in a down season, that's fine for a #5 guy. I don't need an ace I need innings. Having innings helps Gray/Suarez/Tolle/Bennett and the bullpen.
  3. Hugh2
    Here is a better way of looking at it. Here is our current rotation: Gray/Suarez/Tolle/Bennett/Sandoval. Whos is the next guy if one of them goes down? Bello? sure but you need an opener then who is next? Blake Wehunt? and again you have to consider these guys are going to get fatigued especially the ones pushing their innings limit. You need innings. And I would seriously consider a 6 man, which is not all too uncommon for a partial season in the big leagues nowadays.
  4. Hugh2
    Here are some facts. Since June 19th the offense. FWar - 15th HR's - 18th OBP - 16th RUNS - 8th Those are average numbers. Which is fine, because before June 19th they were dead last in every category. Pitching and defense can dominate games if the offense is good enough and not deadlast like they were in runs scored earlier this season. I'd expect the inverse to be true as well. If you have elite hitting, you don't need elite pitching, but you can't have bad pitching. I'm open to the Sox making more additions on offense if it fits the mold of the Mead trade. What does that mean? well they moved Early for another young player with 4.5 years of control; he wasn't a rental. Best place to make that upgrade is at catcher, which may be more realistic in the offseason. Pitching is what concerns me, we are witnessing how completely dominant this team can be when the hitting is good enough, but if that pitching takes a step back the team will seriously regress. Both Tolle and Bennett are either at or above their career innings pitched, Sandoval is coming off TJS, and your ace is not so young anymore. Don't get me wrong, Gray has been amazing, but the fact is he's pushing 37 and age always must be concerned when it comes to injury or fatigue risk. Your depth has been decimated, and what you have carries a TON of risk. The team doesn't need an ace, but it needs innings, it needs a serious innings eater. Crochet may be able to come back and help in the bullpen at some point, but the time has passed to be able to ramp him up to starting, unless he was coming back now (which he's not) I would entertain a rental at SS, and I would entertain a cost-controlled upgrade at Catcher, but I'd certainly be targeting pitching.
  5. Hugh2
    I don't need a stud, I need a guy to eat innings and not give up 10 runs. Castillo is still a fine BOTR guy, if the price is right I'd certainly be ok with trading for him.
  6. Hugh2
    I mean, you’re probably right, but it wouldn’t be the first time a player says one thing and by the time they’re traded and their ego takes a hit they reconsider. i figure Lindor is still a short stop, he’s fine there, but at some point his defense is going to to take a hit and he’s going to have to move. Father Time is undefeated
  7. Hugh2
    What does it matter if he was DFA’d? If he performs how he had this year so what? Every other team could have got him too but they didn’t. if he hits well, it’s a great trade, if early becomes an ACE and Mead becomes a pumpkin it will be a whole lot of egg of BreSLOWS face.
  8. Hugh2
    Yeah, I generally use it as a measuring stick. If BTV grades the trade as fair I don't think that's the end all be all because it certianly doesn't entertain how the teams feel and value the players. But if I plug the numbers in and one team is getting $60-$100 million in surplus value over the other I just know it's a trade that no team is going to entertain. It's a filter, and nothing more, and it's fun.
  9. Hugh2
    I would say the same thing MVP would, still would.....but it holds up surprisingly well. Outliers will always exist as teams value guys differently
  10. Hugh2
    I don't disagree, but when you compare the surplus value at the time of actual trades it's very much on a lot. So if someone posts a trade where one team is getting $60 surplus value it's almost certainly a bad trade. Could it happen? sure but BTV has held up better than that Lets do it with actual trades this deadline and see how much it can vary.
  11. Hugh2
    I think you're understimating how cheap the worse teams can be. Burger king was notorious for not spending a dime on market research of where to put their stores, they just looked at where McDonalds was going and set up shop as close to them as they could.
  12. Hugh2
    Ok....I mean I didn't really believe it either, but most trades match up very well or close to it on BTV. The proof is in the pudding. And remember this, a lot of you might be against all this analytic crap but we know for a fact that most front offices ARE NOT, so right or wrong we have an ideal of how they're evaluating players. So......it's not so much about whether or not it is a lopsided trade if it is perceived as such you could of got something for less.
  13. Hugh2
    The early trade was an "overpay" by btv but it was still accepted.
  14. Hugh2
    MH?
  15. Hugh2
    I think BTV is using surplus and how close in value they were when deciding when to accept or not. Outliers exist, but it's really impressive how close it is on almost all real trades.
  16. Hugh2
    I've made it a habbit of plugging real trades into BTV, it's a lot closer than you'd think the vast majority of the time and that trade was a major major major overpay for the Sox. I don't think the Mets go for that though, unless they were particularly high on Duran and Mayer.
  17. Hugh2
    It's been done, not terribly common but more so than you'd think. I can't think of a team that has ever employed a 6 man rotation year round but there are a LOT of examples of teams who have done it for a stretch of 1-2 months including the Angels, Astros, Mariners, Nationals, and the Phillies. It's not ideal, but it's probably easier to find bullpen arms ride the shuttle and ideally when you have an extra day of rest you can go an inning longer, partially negating the need for the bullpen. I'm certainly not claiming that is the only way to go, but something will give if innings are not managed with our starters. I'm open to suggestions to sway my opinion.
  18. Hugh2
    I'm very much OFF the Lindo boat. But if the Mets were to open up shop, their preference is to kick in a lot of money and get a better return.
  19. Hugh2
    This trade provides the Mets with surplus value of $68.50 million and the Sox with $8.50 Breslow should be chased out of town if he ever makes a deal like this. The deal evens out when the Mets add in $80 million. That turns Lindors contract into about $18.5 million per year. Still, I see Lindor moving to 2B sooner rather than later and we just traded for a guy who will play 2nd.
  20. Hugh2
    Tolle is at his career high for innings, Bennet is over it, Sandoval is coming off of TJS, Gray is pushing 37. What do you think happens to all these guys in Sept/Oct if they are beat up even more over the next 2 months? If the goal is to go deep in Oct, you have to start thinking about these things now.
  21. Hugh2
    I was thinking of that too. Heck I’d do it for everyone, rotate everyone with a week off so by the time mid September rolls around everyone has had 10 days off recently
  22. Hugh2
    I know people have poo poo'd this ideal before. But I think these young guys could really really benefit from a 6 man rotation, they will need to play without their arms falling off in Sept/Oct.
  23. Hugh2
    Neto is not a good fit unless you're moving him to 2nd, in which case Mead was acquired to be your DH, which in that case.....what to do with Yoshida? who has actually hit well.
  24. Hugh2
    Bello is the guy who goes to AAA, Sandoval has no options. Bello is fine when he has an opener, it's the strangest thing I've ever seen but let him start in the 2nd and he will get you 5ish quality innings every time. Start him in the first and the team is way behind right off the bat. I wonder if the Sox trade for a guy that has options, someone who they can easily move back and forth between AAA/MLB this year.
  25. Hugh2
    IDKW but this old simpsons episode just popped into my head. 96K views · 2.3K reactions | Let that be a lesson to the rest of... WWW.FACEBOOK.COM Let that be a lesson to the rest of you... nuts.
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