Hugh2

I do not know what his future holds, but he's certianly one of our top trading chips. If we want to trade for a premium player there's a very short list of guys other teams are going to demand and he's on it. Or....maybe he's the starting SS in 2027?

I think it is quite possible that the Sox didn't want to part with Arias and the Reds wanted a MLB package. That doesn't mean they didn't like Arias either.

Negotiations that never came to any fruition. Did the Reds not want Arias or like him? or did the Sox make an offer and the Reds countered with "We want Tolle and Abreu" and Brez said "goodluck" and that was that. Reality is a deal never happened, and if there was enought interest on both sides to make a deal we have no ideal what that final deal may have looked like. OR DO WE???? we have an offseason coming up

I remember everyone saying the Sox were dumb and they would have drafted Meadows. Like, ya'll didn't know a darn thing about the guy you just saw his name next to Ball a few slots higher on some pre draft rankings and he played outfield. We had to draft outfielders at the time because our outfield sucked. But we were literally not far off the emergence of Betts and within a few years we had Benintendi/Betts/JBJ in the outfield by the time Meadows would have been MLB ready. Just another good example of why you don't draft for need. That was such an awful draft in hindsight.

Maybe, but they have pretty much their entire offense under team control for the next couple years with young guys like Turang under control until 2030 & Chourio until 32' This might be their peak, but they might be living on this peak for the next 2-4 years.

I think the Reds would have wanted one of those guys PLUS Arias and they also wanted an overpay for Elly too. They likley were being offered over pays and it still wasn't enough to get them to budge. Something like Abreu/Arias+ or of equal value is likely what they wanted.

Well.....perhaps we know why the deal fell apart. I certainly don't blame the Reds for demanding Arias headline the trade.

In the 2004 draft the Tigers drafted Justin Verlander with the second overall pick. The next best player drafted in the top 10 was Homer Bailey. I used to always get a kick out of people who would say "when you have a top 10 pick you can't screw that up" Like.....I'm pretty sure they're trying to draft really good players.

IDK, I don't think I'd want to include Arias in a trade unless the bat I'm getting back can play SS, because I'm done betting on Story. Actually.....I had been done but that's a whole other matter.

We don't know, but if the deal was a minor league package it's a very very short list of who it could have been, and Arias seems like the ideal candidate.

BTV accepts Wilyer Abreu and Franklin Arias for Elly De-La Cruz. Now, whether the Sox, Reds, you or I accept that is a totally different matter.

Three things have to happen to pull off a trade for a big bat. A. A big bat has to be available: Anyone can write a trade proposal for Pete Crow-Armstrong but if he's not for sale he's not for sale. B. You have to have assets to trade: Teams have increasingly become more reluctant to add any significant value to assets that are not MLB level, MLB ready or close to MLB ready. This is why someone like Franklin Arias is going to hold substantially more value than someone like Justin Gonazelz, and he probably represents the only minor league asset that could hold substantial weight in a package. All our other best assets would be MLB players like Bennett, Tolle, Abreu. C. You have to beat every other teams offer: Trades are going to sting, while the Adley Rutchmen trade certainly surprised me, I was 100% not surprised that the price was much higher than what everyone else figured it would be. Given the Sox position, farm system, and the thin free agent market, I don't think it's possible to trade for a big bat unless we are trading a guy like Payton Tolle. That price might be too high for some, I might be inclined to agree with you. Just to illustrate my point with a trade that is 100% unrealistic but to bring in a guy like Junior Caminero you are likely giving up Payton Tolle/Justin Gonzalez or a Franklin Arias/Wilyer Abreu. Again Tampa is not trading him to us, but this illustrates the type of asset package we would have to part with to bring in a premium bat.

I'm going to look for more data, and I suppose comparing 1st round to total draft could net different results, and recent drafts aren't going to show recent data. But someone did compile a list of WAR from teams draftees from 2000-2016, and the Sox were at the very top of the list. So apparently pretty good. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-the-teams-have-drafted-in-this-millennium/

And therein lies the problem, we sign free agents and evaluate them for what they've done but that often does align with what they will do. Some guys just fall off a cliff. We have our own guys who fit the bill too.

I wonder if we can get Bo Lowrance for Jarren Duran from the Dodgers in an offseason trade. They might be one of the teams in the market for an outfielder, there'd be little pressure on him there in a lineup with nothing but all stars and Lowrawnce would be a big help in replenishing the system with young talent.

I was on the Swanson train an opt out is player friendly, which likely lowers the AAV a guy is willing to accept. To entice Bogaerts to sign without a player opt out he would likely of been making 30 per year instead of 25 and of paid for the another 4 years. If that was the case, he'd at this point in time be on contract for another 2 years and probably put up a 32.1 WAR during the term of that contract. Which would make him worth about 2/3 of the contract. Honestly, probably worth it for a homegrown player and certainly worth more than Trevory Story has been.

Baez before he hit FA had 31/29/34 HR's. If he was a FA this year or last year every commenter on this board would be saying we should sign him.

I remember predicting an extension of around 217/8 and not a soul thought he could come anywhere near touching that. But that just seems to always be the MO. We constantly underpredict two things. A. The cost of free agents, and the cost of trade acquasitions. Just as a general practice we should realize any FA is going to cost much more than what we think they will. But the Bogaerts deal was just stupid on top of stupid. It might go down in history as one of the worse contracts.

I think it's blatantly obviously not signing Xander and making another move for SS was the right move. I think it's ALSO blatantly obviously that the corresponding move to sign Trevor Story was not the right move. Certianly not in hindsight.

Both sides fighting for more money.....fans will still pay more no matter who wins.

Millionaires vs. Billionaires......Do I have to take a side?

This has been the trend for a few years now. Which is why I've always been a big advocate of those early exensions before guys get too costly. I'm not sure if the Sox stink at identifying who to extend, or if they're just cursed because lately it feels like you need to flip a coin when they give someone money. I haven't given up on Anthony yet though. But the point is if you want to bring in high end talent, for the most part you either have to draft and develop it or trade for it. And we don't have much for trade chips...unless we want to start dealing from our MLB pitchers.

I like Duran, and I hope he turns it around for this team next year. But I really can't blame anyone for thinking it may be time to move on from him, it might even be what they should do.

The thing about Duran is even if he couldn’t play at a starters caliber he can still be a good 4th outfielder and a baserunner. I think that, plus the upside that he performs wells again next year is worth more than what we’d get back in a trade. The time to trade him was a year ago

Yeah but they will make it, it's all about how they play once they get in. I understand the backlash this comment may get, and I certainly agree with the anxiety created around this team with it's fanbase by not performing well. But absolutely no one will care how they played the last few weeks if they get past the first series. This should make everyone feel a little bit more optimistic. There is a much, much higher correlation between postseasn success and regular season play vs. .500 teams than there is vs. postseason success and record the last month of the season. Re-read that. It's a statistical fact that teams who beat good teams in the regular season go further than teams who didn't do so but won more games in September. Of the 12 teams slated to make the playoffs today, the Sox have the 4th best record vs. .500 teams and the 2nd best in the American league. I'd certainly feel much better about this team if they're winning more games this last week and a half. But they really do just need to get in healthy.