Hugh2

http://www.soxprospects.com/dh.htm Here is a good link for those following the signings.

I meant no one as talented as him has fallen to the Sox before, at least not in my recent memory. Guys fall all the time though. Reportedly he had a price tag of 4-5 million. With the underslot signings the Sox have already made + the 5% overage they could offer him 4 million right now. Perhaps I'm a bit optimistic but I wouldn't be surprised if they could sign him for even lower than that. 3.6-3.8 million. I'm sure the Sox have a price in mind, and will tell him take it or leave it at the deadline. They aren't going to blow up their draft for the next 2 years for one kid.

In the draft overall or the Sox top choices? Well, I suppose it doesn't matter because the answer is generally the same. Top draft picks almost always sign and I can't remember the last time the Sox failed to sign a top draft pick. There is a level of communication between teams and the guys they draft. I don't think they draft a guy with a top 10 pick unless they are sure they can sign them. Perhaps Groome is different because this is a very unique situation. I don't think anyone as talented as him as even fallen before so perhaps this is a rare case where they draft him regardless of the sign ability because the ceiling is so high? Worst case scenario is they get pick#13 next year in what is supposedly a very deep draft. And they did sign a bunch of top 100 guys past round 10 presumable as back up guys to throw money at if Groome doesn't sign. Still.....I think they will and should sign Groome.

There's a lot of different angles to look at "perspective" in the minors. Benintendis OPS was lower a few weeks ago in what will of amounted to a few bad weeks at the end of the year. He's doubled his numbers the past couple weeks. Yes it's a SSS but everything is in the minors because you can never hit too well at a level to have a very large sample size because you will inevitably be promoted. Age, making adjustments, fatigue, slumps...there are so many factors to consider. Numbers are the end game, but sometimes you have to throw the numbers out the window and look at the player. That's what you do with a guy like Benintendi, unless he ends up busting the numbers will come and we see that time and time again with elite prospects; given enough time they adjust and start owning a level.

Well I've always thought that you can't seriously consider a guy into your future plans until he is performing in AA but I happen to find everything in between the GCL and Portland interesting as well. From Greenville, to Salem to Lowell. It's pretty nice to be able to go watch a ball game too and pay $15 where it would cost $250 at Fenway and see some guys who are future all stars play, guys who are hungry and not overpaid.

I'm sorry guys, I just always assumed that people that actually enjoy watching and following prospects understand the caveat is these guys all have differing degrees of risk associated with them from being raw and far away.

Well that's because he is batting a respectable .725 vs RHP and absolutely destroying LHP.

No one

He's tipping his pitches, I think that has a lot to do with it.

Well guys.....this is a draft thread in a minor league forum, so that's what we're talking about here.

It's "teams believe" he was upset, not directly coming from him. Remember this is a kid who has had every rumor in the world float around about him this spring including that he was dead. When he was drafted one of the first things the life long Red Sox fan said was the money wasn't important If you watch the video of him being drafted his family is genuinely excited. You can hear them talking about how happy they are for him to be staying on the east coast and close to home. One thing to consider too is his agent is very new and inexperienced and rumor has it he's trying to make a name for himself and has rubbed a lot of teams the wrong way. This could easily be a stupid inexperienced agent running damage control from his client running around talking about money not mattering to try and increase his clients payday. It's also

Me too, something tells me that won't last for too much longer. Brentz strikes me as the type of guy who inevitably gets released, maybe MAYBE he's a throw in in a trade in the sense that a team just needs another body and perhaps they think they can fix his swing. But if we were taking bets, I'd wager he's not on the 40 man by the end of the year.

Sox have also signed Steve Nogosek for 250K, which is about 31K below slot. All together the savings from Chatham + Nogosek + the 5% overage means they could sign Groome for a max contract of 3.7 million. Reportedly the lower range of his asking price was 4 million so we shall see. The Sox will likely sign a few more underslot guys but I was also hoping to be able to sign a few 200K guys after round 10. I did guess Groome would sign for 3.8 but admittedly I'm very optimistic.

He's 24, not terribly young for a guy in AAA. I don't think he's a great prospect, but he was always a sleeper of mine. It's nice to see him healthy and off to a good start. I've seen him in person a few times too, he's built like defensive back. Very filled out and athletic frame. Actually the first time I saw Yoan Moncada the first player I thought of was Ramos.

A guy who is not often talked about who might end up helping the big league club this year is Henry Ramos. Ramos was a 5th round pick back in 2010, and he was one of those guys who was drafted for athleticism with the hopes of taking to baseball. He was soccer player before committing to baseball. He looked like he was progressing well and having a break out season in 2014 until he was injured. He's been dealing with injuries since then off and on, but he's healthy this season and playing well in Portland/Pawtucket.

I didn't think he should have been penciled in this year. I can see a cup of coffee and he could pull an Ellsbury on us but I always thought we should start thinking about him in the 2017 line up. AB first 84 PAs in Portland .203/.241/.270 his last 23 PAs in Portland .400/.478/.800 Both small sample sizes, but it looks like he's starting to adjust to the level.

I don't think his stock every took a hit, and I'm fairly certain his stock has been higher than Sam Travis for a while. It's too bad Swihart and Travis got injured though, they would have been nice trade chips that could be used to save the killer B's and the big 4.

Back in 2007 about a month after we won the world series I met Kevin Youkilis and Manny Delcarmen. Youk had a charity even the following day and was at Mohegan sun ring side for some Muay Thai fights. Since I was cornering a fight that night I had the credentials to be in the VIP area he seemed very unexcited to talk to a fan, Manny on the other hand was very nice, he was there with his wife and kids. Since he was a rookie I think he was still excited to have people excited to know who he was. I also ended up going shot for shot with a few of the Patriots offense lineman, but at this point I was inebriated and for the life of me can't remember who.

I hope Shaw gets out of his funk, he was starting to turn me into a believer. Although I always saw some type of regression coming I was hoping he wouldn't turn back into a pumpkin. Still, I will practice the same patience I show with everyone. He deserves an earned time, even the best players in the league slump. But over the last month he is hitting .191/.232/.319

Here are some of the guys I think have a low chance of signing and most of them likely will not. Name BA/PG Nick Quintana 165/73 Tyler Fitzgerald 187/116 Christain Jones 140/173 Jeff Belge 68/168 has already confirmed his commitment to St. Johns Charter Aldrete 456/357 Austin Bergner 165/73 Jon Rave 0/470 Cam Shepard 0/154 There are all high school guys who have a ton to gain by going to college and increasing their value, and with limited resources the Sox will not be able to offer any of these player above 100K. It should be noted, that the sox could end up signing several of these guys if they fail to sign Jay Groome and have money to work with. I'm sure some of these guys are their back up plan. I'd personally rather get Groome in our system than several Devon Fisher, Marc Brakeman types. I also want to point out that I could be very wrong on Nick Quintana. He was taken after the 10th round so the Sox lose zero money for signing him and he also was regarded pretty well but it seems pretty weird for the sox to sign a sign-ability guy with a low chance of signing that high in the draft. My guess is either they now something we do not and perhaps he is more singable than perceived or he is their #1 back up plan if Groome fails to sign.

For fear of continuing to derail this thread I will respond again kindly and suggest we take the conversation over to the minor league draft thread. My fault, I take responsibility for my part. But giving me examples over the last 2-4 years again does absolutely nothing. Firstly, just going back 4 years provides for 3 more years from players in subsequent drafts being able to reach the majors within 4 years. Regardless, that is a ridiculously small sample size, and also it suggests that all things are equal and they are NOT. The strength of each draft class varies and the strengths within it varies as well. zero HS pitchers were taken in last years draft in the top 12. Three were taken the prior year in 2014, but the highest rated guy talent wise has suffered injuries (Brady Aiken). The two years prior were also considered weak years talent wise, Trey Ball would never of been a top 15 pick in this draft. And only 1 HS pitcher was taken in 2012. Now this brings us to 2016, which was considered a very talented draft on the HS pitching side, now that talent might not materialize but that is what it is. We had six high school pitchers taken in the top 12 which was 50% of the top of the draft. Now you can sit here and point out that 5 were taken before him because they most of been better, and none of us truly know were teams had guys ranked talent wise but if that is your only justification for saying Jay Groome wasn't the regarded as the most talented pitcher leading up to the draft then I'd say that you just weren't paying attention to this years draft. Now, your original point was that my hypothetical projection was outrageous and expectations should be tempered. That statement is irrelevant and not needed. My original post eluded to that "outlandish" time line with the caveats "If he's as good as everyone hopes he is" and I also said "Too far away to rule out injury, bust or trade" So I've fully excepted the fact that he could reach the majors in a longer time frame or never at all but you miss my point. Right now he is regarded as having the talent to be a true top of the rotation talent and if he IS THAT then he could easily fly through the majors much quicker than a typical prospect without those limitations and stipulations that I admitted too. You don't have to temper my expectations, I'm fully aware of what can right or wrong in prospect development. I'm not making an outlandish projection, it's not outlandish at all because I'm not projecting him to be in the majors in 2-4 years. If he reaches his ceiling or comes close to it then I think he easily could fly through the system in that time frame...there is a difference between those two statements. P.S. I like Kyle Lewis, you guys got a good steal.

Yes but Hill you should now by now that I'm not your typical fan that reads one paragraph on a guy they draft and then never look at them again. I follow minor league baseball more than I follow the big league team. I also follow the MLB draft as much as rabid NFL fan follows the NFL draft. I understand to most fans its very boring and they don't understand the complexities of it. Do you actually think that other teams drafted 4 pitchers ahead of Groome because they thought he was more talented than them? I mean, I'm sure it's possible but Groome was almost by consensus the most talented player in the draft. The #1 ranked guy on talent often doesn't go number one. Sometimes they slip because teams prefer college talent because the floor is higher, or they go with a guy they have a deal cut with. Sometimes players slip due to sign ability, injury, make up etc etc. Yes you take the BPA, but that is a general rule that has many caveats that are very particular to the MLB draft. Now, if you remember me from the BDC forums you would now that I know my prospects. I bet on talent, I always bet on talent, and I'm 100% aware that they don't pan out. I talk about guys potential, but I'm the first one to point out when a guy doesn't make it that there is a risk associated with prospects. I was one of the only guy to defend JBJ over the years, or Bogaerts in 2014 yet I'm fully aware that I will get burned by the Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrooks, and Allen Websters of the world but I can live with that because I know that if you bet on talent and draft and develop well you end up with Bogaerts, JBJ, Betts in your lineup. I'm 100% fully aware that Groome might not ever make it above AA ball. That doesn't mean I can't get excited about the Red Sox drafting a guy who has more perceived talent than they've ever drafted. I'm prospects fan, and a huge draft fan so stop being a draft buzz killington.

He slipped because he reportedly was telling teams he wanted top 3 money, had sign ability issues, and had make up concerns. He didn't slip because of talent and everyone is trying to figure out what the "make up" conerns are now in the after math because there don't appear to be any there. The rumor in the scouting industry now is that some teams were floating around a ton of rumors about the kid because they wanted him to drop to their pick. One scout even said when asked what the craziest rumor about Groome he heard was that he was dead.

Good job posting an article that was about 6 weeks prior to the draft, which in draft weeks is about 2 years. Boards and scouting consensus is a roller coaster leading up to the draft.

While 2-4 years is admittedly very optimistic in no way is it unrealistic for an elite pitching prospect. Your quicky analysis is just that, quick and not insightful. You can't even consider the 2015 draft because this would be 1 year later, and actually you still have to the end of this season. The 2014 draft you still have until the end of this season, but the elite pitching prospect in that draft was Brady Aiken who got injured. 2013 was an insanely weak draft, the top high school pitchers in that draft would likely have ranked towards the bottom of the first round in this years draft. Remember not all draft prospects are created equal, and the talent varies, some years a draft is loaded with college pitchers other years the talent at the top is more high school players. If you look at HS pitchers who were considered elite and in contention for the #1 pick then you are NOT going to have an apples to apples comparison every year. And some kids who did fit that Profile like Dylan Bundy did reach the majors in 1 year, but then he got injured. James Taillion made it to AAA in 3 years and was knocking on the door before he got injured. Groome was arguably the #1 talent in the draft, and was considered the #1 talent by just about every outlet out there. I believe Baseball America had him 3rd but they also historically weight college players more. It could take 6 years, he might not ever reach the majors. But if the kid is as good as everyone says he is, then saying he makes it to the majors in 4 years or less is not a stretch.