Hugh2

This year I think is harder to project than other years. There doesn't seem to be that one stand out guy at the top, there are 5-7 guys who conceivably could go #1, also Covid really screwed things up for players and scouting departments, but I think that may play out more in the back of the first round which may end up being ever harder to project.

I'm fairly certain MLB drafts are 100% BPA, with that said some teams might be more comfortable with College Bats over HS bats etc etc.

Maybe not, a lot of people have the Rangers and Pirates nabbing the top HS short stops at the top, if that happens one of Leiter and Rocker would fall to the Sox. We could see guys cut a deal at the top too, so someone like House could go off the board too. I think there's a very good chance at least one of them is still there.

That's a pretty good guess as they're two of the best prospects in this entire draft, it would be hard to pass on them there. But, I do think the Sox are going to take BPA, and that could easily be Lawler or Mayer if they fall there, and maybe even Brady and house too.

Oh I'm sorry, what I meant to say was you have to go back 5-10 years until you can even start looking. If I want to see how good the "top 5" picks are, I'll start in 2016 and start working my way backwards.

You mean that we can't start looking at the hit rate for young draftees unless we go back at least 5 years? I'd agree, I think that's what you kind of have to do because even top prospects who excel can easily spend 2-3 years in the minors, and sometimes even all-star caliber players need a year or two in the majors to adjust.

Remember the return for Mookie = Verdugo + Jeter Downs. You could add in how the spend the cash Mookie is getting now, but that will be almost impossible to quantify over the next several years.

Someone over on the Soxprospects forum went back and looked at top 5 picks for a couple of decades and found only two players who did reach the MLB level. This high in the draft, busts are unlikely (if you judge boom/bust by a player being a big leaguer). Personally, I'd prefer someone who is a little bit more than that picking so high.

It sounds more like guys are rising rather than other players are dropping. It makes sense, Covid changes a lot and scouting departments have been playing catch up all spring.

I never really bought into the ideal that we don't draft pitchers because they're risky and we had a bad track record. If you feel you're scouting, and developing pitchers poorly compared to other teams the solution isn't to draft hitters but rather make changes to your scouting and development department. While I've always thought a lot of the problem was just bad luck (developing pitchers is hard), I've always found it tough to assess. It could take you 4-6 years to develop a guy to a point to where he's an everyday contributor so any time you're looking at a lack of pitching depth it's really an indictment from the organization's past. I would honestly be ok with a hitter or a pitcher, I feel like one of the top college arms is going to fall to us, and I won't be upset if it was Kumar or Leiter. Interesting to see what Bloom does, not just with the 4th pick but with the depth in this draft.

I don't think the Sox are ready to move on yet, but if Santana hits at the MLB their hand might be forced. I don't think they're going to rush Duran, if they're getting absolutely nothing in LF and they're still competitive come August. Kind of like when Will Middlebrooks became a black hole in the Sox lineup and they rushed Bogaerts to the majors. It happens, but Santana could make everyone life easier if he can just repeat 2019 and then no one has to get rushed.

I think people don't see the potential he has which causes some of the upset. But, what's potential? Trey Ball had potential, Will Middlebrooks had potential, at a certain point you have to perform. I think the Sox line of thinking is Cordero has already spent enough time at the AAA level and hit it pretty well, if he's going to make the adjustments to tap into potential as a power hitter he's got to do it at the MLB level. I think there's a point where they give up on Cordero and he plays his way down, but I think they'd rather have someone else be the up/down guy until they're ready to give up on him. It would be a lot easier to give him some more rope if the Sox weren't so darn competitive this year!!!

Maybe, but maybe a terrible track record for developing pitchers is an argument for drafting a hitter and developing him. If your system is loaded with hitting prospects you can always trade for pitching. I mean, if you count Buccholz the Sox haven't drafted a viable starter since 2005. To at least some extent, one has to think that's luck, and I'm sure the personnel in the Sox system is different today than it was 10 years ago because when it comes down to it you should trust your scouting and development personnel. I think they go BPA, hard to pass up a high school shortstop if you think they will be the next Manny Machado. I think if one of Mayer, Lawler, or House makes it to Boston there is a decent chance they go for the upside there. Couldn't be too upset with one of the Vandy boys though, both could be middle of the rotation starters relatively soon in the majors with a chance to be slightly better.

I doubt we will ever see Workman again in Boston, I hope I'm wrong. I think you see Brennan this year, I don't expect much from him as I see him as an emergency up/down guy, but you're going to need that at least once this year. Wish Chavis had a position, I think he will hit eventually, but I'm not sure how much teams can hold on for ok offense when the defense is subpar everywhere.

That 474 foot Home Run was a nice reminder of why the Sox have Francy out there. The potential is huge, getting pretty tough to defend the guy with his performance at this point but it's there.

Just goes to show you how all over the place this can be. There are about 6 guys now who have projected as #1 over the past couple of months now. It will be interesting to see 3 straight high school short stops taken giving the Red Sox the first crack at the college arms. But you have to wonder if the Sox really like one of Mayer/Lawlar and would take them if they fall to them. If that was the case I guess you have to throw House in there too. Actually mlb.com has House mocked to Boston but we will see. Most mock drafts have those two guys going #1 and #2 but there's also a LOT of talk about no one separating themselves at the top this year. There is not a consensus #1 pick in this draft, but rather a tier of 5-6 guys, so things could get very interesting on draft day. Apparently, Henry Davis has established himself as the best college bat in the lineup, Catchers don't go in the top 10 often, they turn out pretty good when they do so I guess I should be more excited if the Sox take him but for some reason drafting a good catcher who's #1 tool is his arm strength just isn't that sexy to me at #4.

He's not getting called up because he might not be ready. He's played 18 games above AA ball where he put up .646 ops. I know he's made adjustments, but that doesn't mean he's ready to make the next jump. There's a very large list of players who get rushed and struggle at the MLB level, even studs like Xander Bogaerts came up and put up pedestrian numbers, and Duran is not Xander. Duran has also only faced 2 pitching staff in his 18 games above AA (Buffalo and Syracuse). I think we will see him up at some point this year, but I'm sure the Sox still has some things they want him to work on, and if Santana plays well it makes the decision to wait easier.

The whole Sale/Greenville switch is still messing with my head.

You would think a pitcher who fits that profile would maximize the value of good defense behind him.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/podcast-whos-no-1-breaking-down-the-most-uncertain-draft-in-years/

The only reason I like Rocker over Leiter is his size and workhorse frame. Lot of people ilke Leiter over Rocker for good reason. When he's been on he's the more dominant pitcher and his velocity I believe has started to tick back up. I just like to dream on the upside of him if his consistency take even a small tick up.

BA came out with a podcast 2 days ago called "who's No. 1?" There's some great stuff in there. It's a weird draft year, not as strong at the top buy extremely deep, a ton of players who didn't go into last years pool will be on the board this year. The fact that there was no Cape Code league, no season the year prior, and no national circuits mean a lot of scouts have been playing catch up. This leaves the possibility for a lot of movement in this draft. There will be guys who really rise/fall over the next month. There does not really seem to be a consensus #1 there and we could see a few teams cut deals with players at the top. Despite past performance of drafted pitchers I'd prefer Rocker then Leiter, some people are saying Brady House is the exact top of prospect Bloom likes. High School SS seems to be a strength in this draft.

Forgot all about the Brentz leg shot, oh man what a bad look. Shout out to Thunder, going to take a long hard look at taking that 45-minute drive up to Hartford this weekend.

Honestly, if we could play that stretch @ .500 I'd be happy.

College bat vs. High School bat. Although, we know college bats are usually a much safer bet than a high school bat. Still, Brentz was selected 36th in the 2010 draft and Casas was taken about 10 spots earlier as a high school bat. Brentz was heralded as a more safe offense-ready player and Casas is someone you can dream on. Well.........we all know how that worked out. Any whooooo Casas is now 21 and although the sample size is pretty small he's handling AA pretty well (after a loss season), when Brentz was 21 he was .598 OPSing it in Low A. Brentz ended up putting some decent numbers up at the AAA level, but he was never able to take his game to the next level. Brentz was an outfielder while Casas was a 1B, at 1B you have to hit, if he had played a premium position (such as SS) he might have been one of the first HS players taken in the 2018 draft. But, lets be fair here, there's till plenty of time for Casas to flame out, but I'd say there's more reason to be hopeful in his future than we ever had for Brentz at this point. I think the offense potential from Casas is more than it ever was from Brentz, and certainly so at this point, but as a corner infielder he's going to have to hit and hit well to be a regular. Interesting factoid, the kid threw mid 90's in HS, too bad, that arm will be wasted at 1B but if he reaches his potential with the bat who cares.