Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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I agree that he deserves a long look, and I think he has a higher ceiling than his stat line currently shows. I’m not convinced that he won’t always be a streaky hitter who strikes out a ton. I’m also not convinced that when he goes back into a slump people won’t be demanding a replacement for him again.
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I think if you want to compete next year you need to pick up a starter. The depth is better this year but we’re still lacking the type of star talent that can lead you into October. Having Sale back should help. Houck strikes new as a reliever, a good one though.
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2021 MLB draft
Hugh2 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
We only know what we know, and these are relatively unknown commodities. But everything I’ve read on the draft they refers to makeup grades Leiter as a high make up guy. I’m certainly not going to believe he’s anything less without specific reason to believe so. Davis is reportedly a high makeup guy too. -
To be fair Vaz plays good D at a premium position, Marwin is a bench guy, Santana is minor league depth call up, Plawecki is a backup catcher, and Kike is a utility guy getting starters reps, but he does provide plus D at premium position. Dalbec plays a bat first position, he deserves more flack.
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Dalbec has been hot/cold all year, he’s a streaky guy. He’ll be cold again in a week. Let’s just hope he gets hot when it counts.
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Ok, but my point is prospects usually don't bust into the top 100 the year after the draft unless they're top 5 guys. If we're getting those guys it means we suck, so yes I would rather have my recently drafted prospects not top 100 guys. From that vantage point of course, not that I wouldn't be thrilled if a guy we took 29th turned out to be a stud immediately.
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2021 MLB draft
Hugh2 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I think that's an unfair assessment of Leiter, he's listening to his agent, and stuff like this happens all the time to try and clients the best bonus. -
Here's a perfect example. Mookie Betts was drafted in 2011 but he didn't become a top 100 prospect until he entered the 2014 rankings @ #75
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2021 MLB draft
Hugh2 replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Yeah, there's really no such thing as being blocked as a pitcher. If you're the top catching prospect or the top short stop prospect and you're playing behind an all-star you might get blocked for a year but the team will eventually either move you, trade you, or move the guy you're replacing. Good pitching is such a sought-after commodity and you need 5 starters, not just one guy for each position and injuries happen. Guys pitch their way up into a bullpen role for a year sometimes too. If you can pitch, you're not getting blocked for very long in baseball. -
Pretty much nothing. Often times guys who play in the minors the same year they're getting drafted are getting 7 games at 2B or 10 IP if that. The way I look at it is you realistically need 5 years to judge a draft.
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But how many of those guys were players taken at the top of the draft? We're picking #4 this year, so we're going to draft a guy this year who is going to slide into the top 100 right away. Almost nobody drafting that gets a top 100 prospect until the guy has played a year or two and proven themselvs.
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Way way way too early to judge the 2020 draft and even the 2019 one. Some of these guys haven’t even played a game in the minors yet because last season was canceled. It takes several years to truly judge a draft, longer for drafts when that have more younger guys too.
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Yorke was a highschool hitter which is the riskiest pick in the draft after HS pitchers. I like the pick but it's what it's, high risk high reward. I do remember listening to a Soxprospects podcast where they had heard from the Sox F.O. that they viewed Yorke as a kid who had the potential to move up higher in the draft given more time. Last year was a weird year in that they didn't have a season. You're kind of seeing the same thing play out this year in the draft with guys like Khalil Watson getting some last-minute helium. Nice to see him turn it on, it will intriguing to follow his (hopefully) path to the majors over the next few years.
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Fair, but what is his "true value"? because his value is really low right now. If you could put his value on a 1-10 scale, where 10 is what his value could become and 0 is no value, he's probably at a 2 right now. So his value can't go much lower but it could go sky high. I'm not against trading him by any means but if he slides up that scale by the end of the year then yes he could get you more in a trade than he could right now.......but, why wouldn't we want to protect him at that point and see what we have in him. I suppose the argument I'm trying to make is IF he performs well this year, there is a good argument for protecting him and keeping him. That doesn't make it the solid correct decision by any means only that it's justifiable.
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I think you’re comparing it to an average, there’s probably another extreme too. Really big overweight players decline faster too. Unless you’re all hit first and can play 1B/DH and don’t lose match bat speed, think David Ortiz.
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The problem is when we try a thought experiment we think of individual players. Oh hey player x is short and he played a long time, or I remember player y who was a tall athletic guy and he couldn't do anything after age 29. Exceptions don't make the rule, the whole picture does. I'd like to see a sample size comparing such between thousands of players over the past couple of decades. This I do not have, so until I have this I will withdraw my argument that smaller players age worse, I still believe they do based on what I feel I've read in the past but I can't really make an argument over it right now.
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Heres a good way of looking at it. Jason Groomes trade value now, vs. his potential trade value in the future. Scenario A: Groome is finally healthy, and can string together a full season of development he could restore his status as one of the more promising pitching talents in the minors. His value is sky-high. Scenario B: Groome gets injured again, or never gains back the potential he flashed as the top-ranked prospect in the 2016 draft. He has no value. The difference between value of what Groome is now and scenario A is astronomically high. The difference in value between what Groome is now and scenario B is negligible. At this point, you are better off sticking with him throughout the 2021 season and seeing what he becomes now that it appears he might finally be healthy and actually give you some innings to see what he can become.
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If Groome sucked for 4 years then it’s an easy decision to release him. But he’s had an insane amount of bad luck added to a Missed Covid hear that has delayed his development. At one point he was the top pitching prospect in a draft, with TOTR potential and a workhorse frame you dream on. If he’s showing signs that he can stay healthy you let him pitch for a year and see what he can show you. There’s still a ton of upside there. Outside of a trade for top talent would we want to add to the 40 man right now who has more potential than Groome if he is finally putting it together.
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He walked 2 guys on 8 straight pitches yesterday, the pitching coach came to the mound and he then proceeded to strike out the side. Whatever he was dealing with appears to be fixable. Young pitchers struggling with control is not rare, he’s never had a full season developmentally, so let’s see what happens.
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If he pitches all year and stays healthy they’ll call him up to Portland. If he legit takes a turn for the better he’ll be knocking on the door at some point next year.
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I mean it's a two-way street, how well can a guy who is overweight age? I'd guess if they can hit the offensive production drop off is less because they can move to 1b/DH.
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Why has his ceiling changed? what do we have to go on? it's not like he's sucked, he's literally been injured. I say you give him until the end of the year and why not? he doesn't have to be added right now. Groome is probably the one prospect in the entire Red Sox system whos value can shoot right back up or crater to nothing depending on what he does this year. He was the consensus top talent in the 2016 draft, if he can put it all together and have a good season why not take that chance? or at least entertain it. Groome will not be protected unless he climbs a steep hill, I will admit that, and if he rebuilds some value he can be part of a trade too. But, I don't think keeping him if he starts to show promise is a bad idea either.
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Problem is if you buy into that and put Bogaerts second who leads off? I'm a firm believer in putting a high OBP guy, but here are our leaders for OBP: Bogaerts JDM Verdugo Devers That's literally 4 guys you don't want leading off because there power plays up better in the 2-5 positions, but look there's no silver bullet for this problem outside of acquiring outside talent. So just for argument's sake, I'll go with this lineup. Verdugo Bogaerts JDM Devers Renfroe Dalbec Vasquez Arroyo Kike I thought about keeping Dalbec lower, but his OPS is actually higher than Vas, and Kike and he's been hitting very well lately. I like Kike #9 because it gives you someone with a little bit more consistency to hit in front of Verdugo 2nd time through.
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There are many who say you should bat your best overall hitter second. I share your opinion, I love Cora but I'm not happy with the leadoff issue. Still wouldn't trade him for another manager but I wish he would try something different there. He doesn't want to hurt production in the middle of the lineup? the #1 hitter is going to see more at-bats than anyone else so why put a guy there who isn't that great? I get that you suffer a little in the middle by moving a guy like Verdugo into the #1 hole, but you gain that back at the top of your lineup.
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Another take I took from that fact and the Bogaerts/Betts comparison is the bet that a guy like Bogaerts is going to age better than Betts. He will probably be a better player at 35 than Mookie is. Again, this is a guestimate. But you have decisions to make as a team. Extend Bogaerts, Extend JDM, replace those guys with big money if they walk, extend Devers, you need pay a pitcher if you want to compete in a year or two and no matter how much people want to spend other peoples money the Sox are just not going to go over the luxury tax. Not for more than a year or two at least. If you consider all that, and the reality that hard choices have to be made and you think there's a really good chance Mookie is going to walk in a year you're not competing, you'd be stupid not to trade him.