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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    The problem there is it's not a true negotiation in a sense. You only have 1 team bidding on you, if a player is set on getting paid market rate then he likely has a number in mind that if a team does not meet that he's likely going to FA. Who knows what Mookie would have signed for to stay in Boston, but I think it's reasonable to say it would have been around the same number it took LA to prevent him from going to FA.
  2. Hugh2
    I'm actually pretty high on Dalbec, which is weird because I was low on him when everyone else seemingly was high on him. I think he needs time to adjust, and I think he has the talent level to justify it, if Santana can hit in replacement of Francy it's going to take a little bit of pressure off of him too. He's never going to be a .300 hitter, if his hit tool ever took that big a leap he'd be the MVP with his power potential. He's barreling up the ball when he makes contact at double league rate, normally people who hit the ball that hard have higher BABIP than .280 and his lifetime average is .315. So, to some extent, he's had bad luck. I think he's going to be a streaky hitter, in the same form that Jackie Bradley was, he's going to have months when just goes on a tear and hits 10+ home runs. Unfortunately, he's likely the odd man out in a year or two when Casas is ready.
  3. Hugh2
    I have no real way of backing this up, but my guess is the Sox would have had to offer Betts the same deal LA did to convince him NOT to go to FA. Because it was looking like Mookie was going to FA here too.
  4. Hugh2
    Money certainly comes into the equation in the draft. I actually find it interesting for all the (teams draft BPA, not for need) talk that we don't bring up the money more often. The frequent exception to BPA is often a guy who takes less money and NOT need.
  5. Hugh2
    That's what I meant when I said "at some point" no crunch yet.
  6. Hugh2
    It's unfortunate because Franchy has some of the biggest power in the big leagues, but all the power in the world means nothing if you can't barrel up the baseball. Hopefully Santana can replicate his 2019 and give this lineup a jolt.
  7. Hugh2
    Here's a thought. Just with left fielders with at least 100 PA's this year, there have been 6 starting left fielders who have a worse WAR than Francy, however, he is dead-last in OPS, but only .005 behind the next guy.......named Jackie Bradley.
  8. Hugh2
    Flip a coin, theres' a 50/50 chance we're getting a future stud with the #4 pick. Interestingly #5 picks almost ALWAYS make the big leagues, it's extremely rare that they do not. Now that could come in the form of drafting Jeffery Clement over Ryan Zimmerman, but they can't all be winners now.
  9. Hugh2
    I don't think guys like Groome and Ball have a ton of value right after they're drafted. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush. If those guys were good enough to get an elite return early in their careers they would have been #1 picks, guys like Harper. I'd also rather trade 3 lesser prospects for 1 higher ceiling guy any day.
  10. Hugh2
    Never underestimate how horrible the bottom of other teams' 40 man rosters are. I wouldn't lose any sleep if we lost Franchy for example, but he'd get scooped up somewhere. I still think he has a better chance at a productive MLB career than Ockimey does. But, lets be honest, if enough guys went down in enough time to where the Sox actually had to call a guy like Ockimey up, they've conceivably moved guys from the 40 man to the DL, so there is no issue. But, I still wouldn't want Ockimey replacing anyone on this 40 man now.
  11. Hugh2
    If I was a team, and I genuinely saw two guys equal and needed a tie-breaker, I'm drafting the player who I think I can sign for less money.
  12. Hugh2
    That's the thing, Ockimey is not on the 40 man roster. And if I'm losing a player to make room for someone, it's going to someone like Duran later this year. I'd honestly rather let it ride with Dalbec and let him give him some more time because I'd want to platoon him at 1B. There's going to be a 40 man crunch at some point, some of this stuff works itself out with injuries but I suspect some deadline moves will be made as well.
  13. Hugh2
    The impression I've been getting from what I've read is just that. It's not that Leiter or Rocker have done anything to hurt their prospect status but rather other guys have pushed themselves up into that top tier. That's good for the Sox picking #4.
  14. Hugh2
    Call it a difference of opinion but I don't think name means a thing at the top of the draft. Maybe in later rounds. You see that stuff happen in the later rounds, where a team drafts a scouts son, or something like that. That certainly happens, but not at the top. In terms of all else being equal, for me if all else was equal I'd go with Rocker because of the physique. His body just screams starting pitcher while Leiters makes you wonder if he can pitch 32 games a year for the long haul.
  15. Hugh2
    Personally, I think there's very little chance that two fall that far, but admittedly I know nothing. I read what guys say who talk to scouts who for all we know has an opinion not in line with the head decision-maker come draft day. These boards change every week too. Still, I don't think any team would be unhappy with a top catching prospect in their organization, even if it was another top catching prospect.
  16. Hugh2
    If we decide to trade any star players at the deadline this year, can we please do it to a contender who doesn't have money? that way we have a chance to bring them back in FA.
  17. Hugh2
    Maybe at one point, at this point there's been so many eyes on these guys at the top of the draft his name means nothing. He's where he is because he has real talent.
  18. Hugh2
    Keep in mind cathers take longer to develop, and Ford is a high school catcher. By the time Ford is MLB ready Rutschmann could be close to a FA, he also could get injured, Ford is also an elite athlete who scouts say could play other positions. With a very strong arm and a 1.8 pop time I don't think the O's would let Rutschmann stop them from taking Ford. If, they're interested in Ford, I'm assuming Law isn't just throwing darts at a board. It could very well be that the O's have guys who they would take there but have a deal in place for a guy like Ford if the draft doesn't develop how they'd like.
  19. Hugh2
    This is the highest anyone has House, one has to wonder why Law put him there. Good chance he's being scouted by teams and there's some talk of him cutting a deal there.
  20. Hugh2
    7 At bats is a pretty small sample size this year. If you look at his career Milb spits the best he's ever done VS. LHP was a .786 OPS back in 2017 in Salem. Also, his defense is 1B only, and he's not really even that great at 1B. I think Ockimey is more of an emergency depth option at this point. If the Sox were looking at needing Ockimey to stay up in the bigs, they'd likely make a move and sign someone else. I also think Casas would pass Ockimey on the depth chart very soon, some time this year.
  21. Hugh2
    Callis has. 1.Marcello Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS 2. Jack Leiter, RHP Vanderbilt 3. Jordan Lawlar, SS Jesuit Prep HS 4. Henry Davis, C, Lousville 5. Brady House, SS, Windor-Barrow HS 6. Kumar Rocker, RHP Vanderbilt 7. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS 8. Jacson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS 9. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA 10. Sal Fredrick, OF, Boston College. There's been some talk of teams in the top 10 cutting deals and saving money to spread around in the later rounds. Someone above the Sox is bound to do that so it's highly probable that not only one of the top college pitchers from Vanderbilt, but also the top college bat or one of the top 2 HS SS will fall to us at #4. If the Sox cut a deal, I think they go college bat, I'm not sure if Davis would take slot or slightly under but they could like Fredrick at #4. I'd be happy with anyone from the Davis/Lawlar/Mayer/Rocker/Leiter/House list as that seems to be the top tier on most boards.
  22. Hugh2
    Keith Law's first mock: 1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Henry Davis, C, Louisville 2. Texas Rangers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Prep (TX) 3. Detroit Tigers: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake (CA) High School 4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt The Red Sox seem to be on Rocker, Leiter, and Davis, and seem extremely likely to get one of them — or perhaps even have a choice among them. 5. Baltimore Orioles: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb (GA) High School 6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt 7. Kansas City Royals: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow (GA) High School 8. Colorado Rockies: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall (OK) High School 9. Los Angeles Angels: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS 10. New York Mets: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA Interesting take by Law having Rocker above Leiter. It has felt like Leiter is above Rocker but people have also been saying that's not a 100% consenus. Callis at MLBPipline has us taking the college catcher, Davis at #4.
  23. Hugh2
    It all comes down to who the Sox like. I think there's a decent chance they get a Leiter/Rocker, but they could easily like a guy like House, or maybe even Davis if they really believe in the bat. If they think Davis would be a better MLB hitter one day than those guys would be a pitcher......then you'd draft the hitter.
  24. Hugh2
    I mean, if all else was equal maybe, but I'd suspect most of the time, particularly at the top of the draft you have player A ranked over player B. The draft is such a crapshoot, and unlike other sports, you're not getting everday value out of these guys for 4-6 years. The team doesn't draft on need, nor do most. I think when you get to the bottom of the draft, and with undrafted free agents you see teams filling in rosters for their affiliates, otherwise, you can always trade hitting for pitching.
  25. Hugh2
    But even in a normal year I think the MLb is a little tougher to project.
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