Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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If they trade for his rule 5 rights they would no longer have to carry him on their 26-man roster. Discussions? I doubt they have started between teams but I'm sure Philly is eager to take a look at him, and perhaps has an ideal of what it would take for Boston to trade him. Song was a DD pick, and we know how DD is about his guys, when he wants a guy he goes out and gets him. That's the strength he has that built a championship here in Boston. I think it could also be used against him, if he really wants Song but can't afford to carry him on the 26th man, Sox may be able to get back equal value.
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I suspect competent baseball ops wouldn't think like this BUT. One downside of all this Song talk is....does this create the illusion that under similar circumstances in the future Song needs to be protected. When in reality, a guy who fits his profile probably doesn't get selected. So you waste a spot year after year and continue to lose guys who have a much higher probability of having an impact on your roster like WARD. This is a crude analogy, but we are effectively asking if we need to change our daily lives because a meteor hit our neighboring town. Out of fear of death, meanwhile, we continue to sit at our computers, drink, smoke, and down cheeseburgers all day. God damn, I really want a cheeseburger right now.
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If anyone wants an expert analysis of the Song situation check out the latest Soxprospects.com podcast. They jump right into it at the 2:55 mark https://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/26051379
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Well Whitlock is by far the greatest rule 5 pick in recent years that I can remember. Would be nice to see a list of some of the most valuable picks the past 10-15-20 years.
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Also, I think there’s a recency bias in Boston after plucking Whitlock. Whitlocks are rare, you don’t get them every year. It’s rather rare to get burned in the rule 5, but it does happen.
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The thing about this whole Song situation is this. He wasn’t the first pick, when you think about how the rule 5 typically goes, what it’s there for, and the type of guy who gets picked there were several guys to protect above Song. Such as Ward. Who really belongs in this conversation. Song wasn’t picked until he reached Philly, Ward was the #1 pick
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They also don’t have to put him on the 40 man yet, I think they have 15 days after opening day. A situation unique to Song
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I truly believe the exemption increases the odds Philly returns him to Boston. But I believe they have to put him through waivers first so would t that mean another team could claim him? I can see a scenario where Philly is in competition and can’t afford to stash Song but he gets claimed by a team that can afford to do so…like Oakland.
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I think we often fall into this trap that all prospects are boom or bust and forget that sometimes guys take time to develop. While my hopes for Duran might be shadow of what they once were I think he could develop into a useful bat first corner outfielder, maybe at the very least a speedy platoon player with pop from the left side. It's tough when your defense isn't great, because then you HAVE to hit.
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What doesn’t make sense is who they DFAd in weeks ahead instead who they protected over Ward. If anything they look dumb getting nothing for him but Idk, it’s looking like a horrible move but we shall see.
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There are also talk that song wanted to apply for an exemption back then; which he did and was denied multiple times while with the Sox. The Sox new this, which is why they rolled the dice with him in the 4th and round and not the 1st. At the time. There was legislation that if passed may have made it more likely he would have received an exemption. It did not.
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Ward was the real screw up. Players that fit his profile DO get picked all the time and it was predictable he was going to be taken. It’s not fair to blame Bloom for losing Song, and this is not defending Bloom, this would be defending any GM in that position. Losing out on WARD is the real head scratcher, and deserving of criticism. Bloom seemingly messed up big time there,
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I think it’s impossible that Song was forgotten about. The Sox figured no team was going to be bold and make an unprecedented move. If Song sticks, it will be a point of reference for Bloom and every other GM out there moving forward.
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There’s no way any GM is purposefully leaving guys unprotected with the hopes of making 50k here and there. That’s pocket change for even a small market team. I also think Ward sticks. Actually that’s the guy we SHOULD be talking about. Bloom was very wrong in leaving him unprotected. Song…not so much.
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And up until recently it looked like he was going to be in the military this year too. Which would make protecting him even a more head scratching move. This is probably partially why Philly took Song. Now they have to pitch him this year which might actually increase the chances he’s returning to the Sox
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Yes I already acknowledged this. Still, when has someone who fits Noah Songs profile been selected? I don’t think it ever happens
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Oh that's a great point, I just took young players who have played at the same level as Song. A moot point I suppose, the general theme here is the fact that guys like Song don't get picked, this is new.
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Yeah, do you seriously believe the Sox wouldn't pay 50k? also often the penny-pinching has luxury tax implications which is why decisions are made in such ways. I'm not sure this is the case here whatsoever.
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Has someone who fits Songs description ever been taken? Also, how often do players like him ever protected? I think that is an important question to ask ourselves here.
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This is an amazing point. If the people angry Song was taken had a real point, even consistently within their own wrong point they would be up in arms that Bleis was left unprotected. Bleis is a top 100 prospect in all of baseball, with more talent than Song. Where is the outrage there? Luis Perales was a top pitching prospect and wasn't added to the 40 man. Elmer Rodriguez is another top 20 prospect, a former 4th rounder just like Song with a lot of potentials and if you put stock in age curves may be very promising and up and coming and he was left off the 40 man. Where is all the outrage from these guys being left unprotected?
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He would have to stay on the active roster for 50 days next year before Philly could option him.
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I disagree, you can't make roster decisions and burn a 40 man spot because a guy might be taken who fits a profile of a guy who has NEVER been taken before. This just doesn't make sense.
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I think if someone wants to criticize this move they should have been advocating for his protection before hand. Nobody was....not even sportswriters. No one.
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Exactly, I think many of the 40 man decisions this off season were huge head-scratchers. But not leaving Song unprotected.
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Ok, but remember what happened is unprecedented. No GM would have protected Song, people who fit his profile don't get picked. Can you think of one guy who has only pitched 17 innings in A ball above rookie ball and hasn't pitched 4 years that has been picked up in a rule 5? It just doesn't happen. Protecting replacement players doesn't matter here because we are talking about the type of guy who doesn't get picked, wheres a replacement-level player is going to add more value than a kid who could get shelled at the MLB level. Teams don't protect guys like Song. This doesn't mean pitching isn't a concern, the Sox ability to draft and develop pitching has been lackluster, or it would be disheartening if the Song move worked out for Philly. Those things aren't mutually exclusive from the fact that not protecting Song made sense. Getting upset over Song being picked because of other deficiencies within the Sox system is unreasonable in my opinion and it appears the pundits who all wrote about it agree as well.