Hugh2

Also it's worth mentioning Story had a less drastic surgery than Tommy JOhn. He didn't have Tommy John.

It's also worth stating that Tommy John itself does not ADD arm strength. And I've read other reports that the success rate to normal activities is as low as 75-80 percent and not 88-92. IDK maybe they've got better at it. But that's still a majority. The people who GAIN arm strength do so because the rehabilitation strengthens their arm up to it being stronger than before. I'd speculate that the younger and more healthy and fit you are the more likely it's for that to happen as well. Work ethic probably matters as well.

I'm actually surprised by Bello seeing how some misplays really screwed up his last start.

exactly.

SO lets both go do some research and find. Using names one way or the other is 100% meaningless, there are thousands of people who get this surgery every single year. I don't give two hoots about names like Rivera or Story or whoever, I care about the results. Bad example, but I tell it anyways. If you're at the doctor and need surgery that could save you life but might also kill you, would you care more about some celebrity that had it? or what the success rate was from EVERYONE who had it? results matter....not examples.

Runners are going to adjust how hard they throw depending on the situation. If a second baseman is on the bag trying to turn a double play he's likely throwing as hard as he can or close to it, if he's 1/2 the distance from their throwing to 1st on a routine grounder he's going to take a lot more of his throw than a SS would to 1B because.....physics.

You're not going to throw as hard as you can at 2nd on a routine play.

Did Story play 2nd or SS in 2021. WHY would we use the average velo from SS?? apples to apples people. That AND his arm may have been starting to bother him then.

And what percentage are THOSE players of everyone who has ever had TJS? probably not even .01% that's not a relevant sample size. It also said the success rate goes DOWN after 35. How many guys on that list are over 35? Also some people are just built differently, the fact that you can list 5 guys from the thousands of people who have successful TJS probably does more to make my point than yours. Look, anything can happen, his arm can come back STRONGER, WEAKER, or the Same. Odds are he will be where he was before he got injured, which was about average. If you want to believe otherwise then I say you're just being a pessimist, which is well within your right and a common theme on this board. I expect and hope his arm strength is fine for SS, and I hope the team gets a stopgap in 2024 and puts him back to 2nd too. If he's healthy, I think he will be fine there. He lost arm strength BECAUSE he was injured, it's perfectly reasonable to assume he's fine if recovered. It's ok....it won't hurt to be a little optimistic and think he will be in the majority of people who recover.

Another tidbit I found interesting is a large majority of those who DID regain their stuff and even lost velocity prior TJS are players older than 35. Trevor Story is 29. Now this is for pitchers, but they've found that TJS adds on average 4 years to their careers.

Even if he has average arm strength over at SS he'd be fine. Personally, I like him at 2nd.

The vast majority of pitchers regain their velo, some even get more. Some do get less. Maybe.....we should wait and see and not be so pessimistic. If after all 88-92% of all pitchers return to the same level as play as prior. Some lose velocity so it's entirely possible he does not have the arm strength. But there's little reason to assume that is likely.

Warning sign? that was average arm strength. And if you're concerned about the drop TO average then the fact that he was injured should spell those fears. It shows us his drop in arm strength was injury related....an injury that surgery is HIGHLY successful for. I'm about 10000000X more concerned with his ability to hit and being rusty after not playing for so long than his arm strength.

People used to be so frustrated with Erod when he was here, and he was GOOD when he was here, just not great and had a hard time going more than 6. Grass is always greener I suppose. He is off to a good start to be fair.

Yeah, he had a bunch of great runs for us too, problem was he could never do it for the long haul. He's good, but he aint' a #1.

Also, wasn't Story's arm velo down BECAUSE he was playing injured? so why would we expect his arm strength to return to 2022 levels if healthy? I'd expect something stronger. To me that would constitute "normal" level of play, if he doesn't add any velocity fine he doesn't need to if he's healthy.

https://danblewett.com/tommy-john-surgery-recovery/#:~:text=The%20success%20rate%20of%20tommy%20john%20surgery%20is%20very%20high,%2D92%25%20of%20the%20time. 88-92% of pitchers return to their normal level of play after surgery. THat's pretty f***ing successful, it's not like....an unknown thing that most Tommy John Surgeries are successful

Yes but we are talking about a position player, not a pitcher throwing 97 MPH, and ftr many, more than half of pitchers end up ADDING velocity when they make a full recovery. So, again. If recovered and healthy Story should have PLENTY of arm for short.

We should have reason to believe that if Story is recovered from his injury he has plenty of arm for SS

No, that's why I'd roll with Kike/Mondesi/Chung at this point. But how does Storys elbow look? if it's rehabbed, maybe its' fine and he's fine at SS in which case move Kike to 2nd.

They don't need the room. WIth those additions and subtractions the Portland roster stands at 28 men.

Mondesi might be the best player out of all of those guys if he can get on the field, that's the thing with him, he's one of those guys who had all the talent but is constantly bit by the injury bug and never really ever had a consistent season. But he's a plus defender and has elite speed on the bases. I really liked what Wong was doing before he got hurt. I was fine with him at SS pushing Kike to 2b. At the time I would have loved Kike back in CF when Story came back but now.....now I just want guy who can field SS.

57.5 million dollars committed in 2025 not to spend****

The Red Sox are still a big market team. They're not quiet the Dodgers and definitely not the Mets but they're top-tier spenders 95% of the time year in and year out. We know they reset this year, we know they will go back over, we know their plan was to rebuild and reset. They're not taking the slow path decades route they just aren't. I can't believe that the Sox are going to reset, be looking at another 100 million to spend next year, and not go for a real upgrade. Why? Why do you say such things Hugh, THIS IS MADNESS!!!! Well, it's simple, Resetting this year means the Sox would be ok staying over for a few years, the latest they would want to reset is in 2025. In 2025 the Sox will have only $58 million dollars COMMITTED while the Luxury tax (the 1st threshold) will be up to $241 million dollars. That leaves the Sox with $183 hypothetical dollars to spend next year. Now of course they won't go over the largest threshold and have arbitration costs and other costs to deal with but if history is a precedent and we take these numbers in the Sox are poised for a much larger splash than just Sonny Gray. I wouldn't mind the signing if it was him PLUS a better pitcher. Next year is pretty stacked. Ohtani, Urias, Nola, Giolito, Snell, Montgomery, Gray, and others. It's also widely speculated that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be posted, and he might just be the best pitcher out of that entire group. Scouts believe he is an ACE. I expect a very different rotation heading into 2025.

If you want to assume they go over the luxury tax you can look at the amount of money coming off the books In 2025/2026. From 24-25 dollars committed goes down from 116 to 57 million. If my theory is correct the Sox are set up for a massive commitment over the next two years if they so chose