Hugh2

His defense also took a huge hit last year, when he was playing with injuries all year. This year he's healthy, and he looks much better out there.

I've been here before, the results are ALWAYS the same. You guys underestimate what guys will get paid. There is always an anecdotal occurrence to back up a different opinion, but most guys don't sign super team-friendly deals. You can't take rational to an irrational market. If Verdugo hits FA coming off of a great season or good and great it only takes ONE gm to think this is who he is in his prime and not the WAR he was putting up his first few years in the league. One, it only takes one. If we want to get serious about keeping guys we need honest conversations. Verdugo is NOT signing for 50 million dollars.

And here we are again. At the very least this time lets not insult the team by "low balling" verdugo. There's always an example out there of a guy taking less money, and we have yet to see Verdugo 23/24 seasons. Also, Reynolds had more arbitration years bought out than you can go for Verdugo right now. That's always going to lower AAV.

Verdugo was on pace for a 6 WAR season a few years ago and then get all fancy and tried to change his physique last year. Even his down years were decent. Just coming into his prime, if he has a good season this year AND next he's getting paid a f*** ton of money. Not Betts money obviously but if a guy is in the middle of his prime a team is going to weigh his last 1-2 years more than what he did years prior. Listen, we play this game EVERY time. When we were talking about extending Bogey, EVERYONE in here was throwing numbers around like 6/130 or less. I was the only ******* who said "ya'll are crazy, he's asking for 10/300 and it's going to take something in that ballpark to stop him from getting to free agency" I didn't think he would get that much, my prediction was 7/215, in the end it was closer than what anyone else was throwing around. As a general rule, whatever you think a guy is worth, DOUBLE it, that's what he's getting in FA. If you don't like it, well you can complain about trading him or let him walk and get a draft pick.

I'd start at 5/90 buying out his last arby year and see if he bites on that. He might, Verdugo strikes me as the type of guy who does not start slacking once he gets paid. I think he rewards the team.

Omg no, I don't even know if 5/100 gets it done. What do we think Dugo would get in FA right now? he's going into his prime.

f*** it, lets go for a sweep. I mean, we already won the Kluber start.

It would be a really good look for these Sox if they can take a series win vs. Toronto.

That’s often the case, which is why a lot of guys elect to go to FA pretty much no matter what they’re offered. Not surprised that people who are the best of the best at what they do in the world might have that “bet on themselves” mentality.

So you're surprised a guy with one year left before FA would sign an extension? WHy? it was said in here that the Sox should do the same with Bogaerts. But if our perception with players is that they're just going to go to FA then....well every player is different. Some are more willing to extensions than others. Bogaerts was also on his last payday chance. Making an extension for him less likely.

I will say this. I think we could both be right here. I’m 99% certain he won’t jump past Perales in the next rankings, and probably not June either. But proximity to the majors matters, if Drohan ceiling changes, and he’s projected as a solid #3 type or more then maybe he could leap frog Perales. But knowing Soxprospects they’re going to want to see a much larger sample of work and the uptick in stuff…and I just don’t see that happening in a couple months. They did say about him “ Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Even that projection might be light as there is a chance he takes another step forward with his stuff in the future” I think it’s plausible, my only criticism is I just don’t think they will be quick to do so. And it won’t be because Perales is struggling, it will be because Drohan takes another step forward and continues to show it for a few months

Problem is guys get off to slow starts, sometimes non prospects get off to hot starts. If Perales is a guy who has all the talent in the world but is struggling with consistency and command (because what 20-year-old doesn't) and they bump him down only to bump him back up a month later when he regains his stuff then rankings lose their legitimacy. It becomes all about the stats, anybody can rank any system just by looking at numbers. Rankings take into account so much more than stats, and Soxprospects tries to honor that as well as anyone else. Walter is a great example of that, as was Yorke, they barely nudged him and it's looking to pay dividends this year.

Based on their latest take on him, I highly doubt that happens. They’d need to see a prolonged period of not just bad stats but his “stuff” being down. Perales is ranked purely on his stuff, and it looks like they really like his stuff http://news.soxprospects.com/2023/04/notes-from-field-luis-perales-and-elmer.html?m=1

This is the thing, that's NOT why they're ranking him. They talk to scouts, and player development personnel, and the money soxprospects raises goes towards sending their scouts out and seeing these guys. They're looking at mechanics, arm slots, velocity, seeing what they're working on or not working on, who they're playing. There are SO many variables that go into account. Perales jump had everything to do with his raw stuff, what the scouts see in him, and very little to do with his stats. The older he gets and the more developed he becomes the more that stuff matters in the end. But right now there's so much stuff behind the scenes that we don't even see. They talk about this stuff often on their podcasts, and I'm basing this on their philosophy not my own. I happen to agree with it. July? IDK, maybe, that's a little bit more realistic but I still think no. But they jumped Drohan by a LOT because they thought he could do what he is already doing. That's what you would expect from a 24 year old in AA, it's not like he's doing additional things. I don't think they even care what the box score is on Perales right now. Lots of good information in their podcasts.

They usually update 1st of every month, but they’ve been late by a day or two before. Casas will graduate with the next update.

You're talking about a 20-year-old kid in A ball who has never pitched more than 35 innings in a season. He's not being ranked because of his stats right now, I highly doubt anyone considers this a "major concern" Moon I think you're letting your personal bias on scouting box scores on players cloud your judgment here. I don't think the ceiling or projection has changed one thread on Perales. It's going to take a lot more than one month of results to move them. He was not ranked because of his stats, he is ranked where he is because of his raw stuff is, it's very natural to have raw stuff, a high ceiling but very poor results because you're very young and just learning a routine. I'd be VERY VERY VERY surprised if they drop him below Drohan right now. He's probably #7 on the next rankings. I've been following soxprospects for a long time, I'm basing my opinions off of how I see them evaluate, rank, and move players. They're not and never have been quick to move guys based on SSS. Yorke had an entire lost season and they barely dropped him in their rankings. It took an ENTIRE lost season to drop him just 3 spots, and I'd say he only really dropped on two of those guys....Bleis just popped. THey really like Perales, they love his stuff, and they know he's a young guy who has a lot of development and I know they're not looking at the box score right now.

They don't cast such a large shadow when the guys you sign perform e.g. Story, Duval, Yoshida, Sale, Paxton, Kluber, etc etc.

Again, I understand the point people are trying to make here. And I think that when you dive that deep you're evaluating the organization, the GM, or the president (whatever title for whoever handles the role). But it still doesn't change the value of said return. If you trade player X for player Y, and it opens up a hole to trade for player B. it doesn't make player Y any better. Maybe the totality of the moves equals a better roster and the organization can be judged by that, but it does NOT change the value of said trade. Maybe I'm stretching this next point a little bit here, but it almost feels like a cop out to not say "hey maybe the return in the Betts trade wasn't that bad" Because thats one of the guys we got for Mookie, and no one is saying that trade looks a little better now.

Casas will graduate in the next rankings.

This almost kind of feels like a back handed compliment. If Sale is healthy, and his command is on, and he can be more consistent, I don't care if it's the Guardians, the Twins, or the Rays, he's going to give us a chance to win the game.

And Verdugo/Wong doesn't make it so? If a completely different trade. I just don't think it's a good ideal of getting in the habit of weighing two completely different trades against each other in terms of evaluating them. It just opens up pandora's box, and makes evaluating things convoluted. And it's just not accurate, they were two different trades at two different times.

That's just the thing, scouts over at soxprospects and other places know a LOT more about him than me or you. My opinion on this matter is 100% conjecture to be fair but based on my experience following soxprospects. Moving a guy like Perales down after a month as a 20 year old in his first full season of ball seem 100% against their typical moves.

Would we have liked the Mookie Betts trade better if Franchy Cordero turned into a stud?

Ok, I disagree, however I understand your point now and what you meant. I think it's a good look for the organization overall, but I can't evaluate one trade based entirely on another one. To me, you're evaluating Vasquez vs. Valdez/Abreau and that's it....It might be a good thing, better for the organization, and a good look that Wong/McGuire look great filling that hole but that doesn't change the trajectory of Valdez/Abreu

They have to weigh so much. If a guy has talent, but can't get results because command and control suck, or he has trouble with his mechanics etc etc etc. and he's 23/24 and in the high minors he's going to drop in value. But a 20-year-old? that's not very uncommon at all to struggle with those things. If his stuff is still there I highly doubt he moves much at all unless he REALLY stinks all year and there's a tick down in his stuff. etc. velocity drop etc etc.