Well, they literally were just over the cap last year so it's not like they've been sitting under the cap. I don't think they're avoiding penalties, they're just avoiding year 2 and year 3 penalties when they can. Year 2 might be easier to stomach when the onfield product is good but if the onfield product sucks it doesn't make sense to just handcuff yourself even more to make the decisions to turn the team around.
Like I said before, I'll be concerned if they stay under next year too. You should reasonably expect more production from a Bello/Whitlock/Casas/Yoshida/Duran/Devers core next year, and if Sale looks like a healthy pitcher again and the likes of Mayer/Rafaela/Yorke knocking on the door it makes more sense to start that 3 year clock next year.
Lets say the Sox need to go out and get the best pitcher on the market (for argument's sake, some will say they will never do that). What did that look like this year? Verlander or DeGrome? we are likely still in last place. Next year it's signing Ohtani. FOr arguments, sake lets say that's realistic. What team is better? 2023 with DeGrome???? or 2024 (what we can reasonably project with these guys) plus Ohtani?
not saying these are the moves, but I am saying that timing maters. This last years FA class wasn't very great. With the exception of short stops.