Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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Even though PEDs can drastically reduced recovery times, players can still get injured, re-injured or another acute injury. Some guys just suck at staying healthy.
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I suspect he works out.
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80% chance? That’s not much of a prediction. It’s closer to 100% for every team.
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Pepen has been wrong before, then again he’s also been on the money other times. I predict 125/6
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The only other person I want to see playing CF on this roster in Rafaela, I hope he’s with the big club if they’re trading Duran. If they trade Duran it’s presumably in a package for a front line starter. Go out and sign a guy and now things look astronomically different
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If you factor in two years inflation, giving him the Olson contract is about $140-$145 million ten years. I’d offer him 150/10 with maybe team options at the end.
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I dunno, I don’t really buy the difference between CBO and POBO, I think it’s more semantics really. I would agree though, I think Dombrowski had more autonomy than these guys but I also don’t think it’s an apples to apples comparison. Dave had a much larger resume and track record than these guys. I think that commands a certain level of autonomy no matter what your title is. He also walked into a team that largely had the core together for their next run, he did make a lot of key additions. Would Breslow be given that level of autonomy if they felt they were closer to a championship? I dunno, I think we could find out next year if they look a lot closer at the end of 2024.
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I'm going to take the lazy mans way out and say 50/50, but if I was being honest I'd call it 80/20 I don't think it's probable, but if you think there's no chance I'd like to convince you that you may be surprised. Everything comes down to dollars, if the dollars are right it makes cents. (ahhh see what I did there). I'd say there's a 20% chance the asking price goes down far enough that the Sox would look at someone like Montgomery and say, well heck we should bring him in. Maybe he will take something with an opt out after a couple years too when his wifes residency is up here. Can he be offered a QO? he wasn't because he was traded last year, so I think he could be offered one next year if he had a one year opt out and opted out. Which honestly doesn't make sense because next years market has even more competition for him. Who knows, I know nothing.
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I think Brez is still in on Jordan/Blake, although from what we can gather it sounds like it would be Jordan over Blake. Fans won't like to hear this, and have effectively already annointed Bres-slow the next Bloom but in a vaccuum I can't blame him for sitting out an offseason if the price isn't worth it. I try to look at things over the long term horizon and in a basket of seasons and not just any given year. To me, it's the aggregate effect of offseason after offseason after offseason of seemingly doing little to nothing to put together a championship caliber team. I'll pretty much withhold my judgement on him for a year. But I do think it will be interesting if he signs them, because I don't think he will do it out of panic, but rather a caclulation. To be fair, all 30 teams haven't signed these guys so far. So either something is up and we have no chance regardless, or the price is low and Breslow is doing the right thing by waiting it out.
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Human phsyiology is a fairly exact science. There's a distinct difference between an acute injury, and a chronic one. you do not develop a chronic injury in the course of a day or two, you develop it over time E.G. the wear and tear of pitching over the course of years. Acute injuries stop you in your tracks, chronic develop slow over time. If he had elbow surgery that offseason the argument would be stronger, but even then, I would still say that THAT would be a "the straw that broke the camels back" incident. But he didn't, he had it years later. You can't pinpoint one week in an 11 year career and say "this....this is what caused this chronic problem" If I develop lung cancer tomorrow, I'm not going back to a new years eve party 3 years ago where I smoked a f***-ton of pot. And let me tell you....it was a lot.
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I find it interesting that all of a sudden Law is higher on the Sox system than everyone else.
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I think it was more other people moving in front of Mayer than him falling off. When you're talking about the top 25-50 guys, if you lose a season due to injury someone somewhere is going to show something that has to put them in front of you. If Mayer comes roaring back this year he could easily be in everyones top 10 again.
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Dodgers giving Braiser 2 years 9 million, with incentives giving him the chance to earn 13 million.
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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/dodgers-to-re-sign-ryan-brasier.html why can't we get guys like this????
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There you go, Tek blew out his elbow not 3 days. Lets' blame him.
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I don't see it as black and white, I see it as chronic and acute injuries, which are two entirely different things. An acute injury isn't going to derail a guys future in several years, it's going to end it or sideline it then and there. If the injury or "3 day event" was significant enough to end his career he would not be pitching on it for years afterwards. those 3 days might have been an example of his overuse, but at the end of the day it's just some of the water in a larger bucket.
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Exaclty, that's caused by bad habits and overuse overtime, not a couple days. It's like pinpointing a couple drops in a bucket instead of one. If 3 days derailed his career, and you can pinpoint those 3 days, his elbow would have blown out the next year.
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You're describing a chronic problem. If a three day period injured a guy harshely enough to derail his career he wouldn't be throwing on it for an additional two years before having surgery, he would have developed an acute injury.
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Yes, but these guys have also all been pitching for a very long time as well. It's almost a given that a guy will have surgery at least once in his career, and nowadays it's almost a given you will recover from it as well. There's also a difference between getting the surgery and getting fixed, and pitching through it. Which, if that's the case here, Faulk waited years to fix his elbow. That's the real culprit, not 3 days, if he pitched for years on it after a "speficic event" then he made it astronomically worse.
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The Orioles literally have prospects ranked higher than all of Mayer, Anthony, Rafaela and Teel at their respective positions. Jackson Holliday #1 Marcelo Mayer #15 Samuel Basallo #15 Kyle Teel #40 Colton Cowser #19 Roman Anthony #24 Heston Kjerstad #32 Ceddanne Rafaela #76 And then one other guy in the top 50. If they start to spend, they're the new Braves, luckily Toronto and TB's window may be closing, and with the new schedule and three wildcards this team coudl still have a yearly path to the playoffs if they can get their s*** together.
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What injury did it cause? Because he pitched the next year after that, he didn't have any surgery on his elbow and it was knee injuries that sidelined him the next year or so. He didn't have surgery on his elbow until a few years later. If he blew his elbow out and had to be carted off the field in 2004 that would be something different, but even then I would argue it was still the "straw that broke the camels back". So the final straw broke his back years later? Maybe I'm misremmebering things here but that just doesn't make any sense. I don't think anyone can ever have surgery and go look back years and pinpoint it to an overuse event, if he suffered an injury that serious that he actually needed elbow surgery he wouldn't be using his elbow for years more before needing said surgery.
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The straw that broke the camels back yes. But if all it takes is a straw then something, somewhere, at any time soon is going to break it. The wear and tear from years prior is every other straw but that last one. I don't disagree with your statement at all, of course that increases the likelyhood. I'll go back to my heart attack example, if you have an insanely stressful work week and have a heart attack that amount of added stress increased the likleyhood of it happening, but it was still the years of bad habits that led there). I would blame the former and not the later on ending his career. That's my point......3 days in November didn't end his career.
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Mind.....completely blown.
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The fact that they're not mutually exclusing plays into my point that it's a chronic injury and not acute. It wasn't caused by 3 days of overuse. YOu can't be injured in 3 days from overuse unless you've been overused for a very very long time. Like a runner running a race, you're going to get tired and eventually have to stop if you try to over do it, and it will happen time and time again before you get hurt. But if you have bad form, bad shoes, etc etc etc, eventually one day you will get injured. That's a chronic problem. 3 days didn't ruin his career. But again.....I don't think Faulk will complain.
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You're basically saying the same thing, and yes I'm 100% certain.