Hugh2

If the Sox trade for a front line starter, what good is that if they're unwilling to sign that guy to an extension? In an age where guys don't sign extensions unless you give them what they think they can get in FA that just doesn't seem to make much sense. It makes sense if you're a 90 win team and view that guy as the extra pieces to put you in world series championship mode for the next 3 years. Unless you think a guy would give you a team friendly deal, but why would any pitcher on earth do that in Boston right now? The allocation of resources at this point to try to build a better team today and have a brighter future, is to either draft and develop better pitchers OR go out and spend some freaking money on some pitchers AND draft and develop better pitchers.

The thing about SNell is he was two Cy Youngs, not one but two. He was the best pitcher of baseball then fell off, then came back. That makes him very risky, but it also means that if there's something in him that is fixable, he could be the biggest steal in free agency. If someone can get more of the 2023 version out of them they will be rewarded handsomely. That team is probably not the Sox, if that permutation of Snells future even exists.

For the sake of brevity let me just say yes, I completely agree with that.

You wouldn't think so, there's no smoke, and he doesn't fit the type of pitcher they like. Which isn't hard these days.

That's fair, I don't want them to spend just to spend. I want them to spend on the right guys. Maybe they see something in a guy that they think they can improve in him or get more out of him in an 8 year window. Of course to do that you have to trust your internal pitching apparatus. I wonder what Breslow and company think about Montgomery/SNell. If they don't like those guys then I wonder if they think they could get a guy like Giolito right?

I don't think it was an accident, they just made horrible decisions at building a better roster. They just came off a season in which they were 2 games away from a WS. They thought they were going to compete in 2022. They were wrong. They also could have easily shed payroll at the deadline to get under if they really wanted too.

And the year before they were 6th, a position they'd be pretty close to again in 2023 if they signed a premier guy like Judge e.g. (not that they should have). I think it's more telling to look at how much a team spends over a several year window. It's obvious the Sox are allergic to long term deals, particularly pitchers. Which is an interesting strategy to have when you don't want to draft and develop them.

No, they wait until the 4th round to take guys throwing 90 MPH.

I don't think so either, given the market, teams will compete for his services, and seeing how this may be his only real chance at a big pay day he would take the years over the higher AAV. I think someone going to 176/8 - 170/7 is the team that gets Montg. I want the Sox to grow some balls if they believe in a guy. But I think at this point they're very far into "put up or shut up" territory.

I always say, trust actions not words. They did go over the LT as recently as 2022 after resetting. The Sox are spenders, what has changed is their spending habits. They'd rather go out and pay more in AAV to sign middling guys to short term deals. They spend the money, what they do not do, is go out and sign premier free agents to long term deals. They struck gold with that strategy before. 2013, and came close in 2021. The problem with it is you're 3X more likely to have a 2022 season than you are a 2021.

The only two premier pitchers to sign so far have been OHTANI and YAMAMOTO. One is coming off a surgery and wont' pitch, and we never had a chance anyways. The other maybe things would be different if we were winners, Yama wanted to go to a winner and obviously now was using other teams as leverage to go to LA. The Sox level of interest in Snell/Montgomery will be the real tellers of how serious they are to improve this team. I'm not terribly optimistic.

He did, and it didn't involve any pitching. Had a few good drafts, but no pitchers in there. Maybe Matt Duffy looks good this year with his 88-92 MPH fastball from the right side.

Who do you trade for though? many of the top pitchers on the trading market are only 1 year away from FA. Guys go to free agency now a days, it's very rare they sign an extention and some of those names have even said they are not going to sign an extension. So why trade top prospects (that you will have to replace in free agency) just to go out and get a good pitcher for one year, that you will have to pay $200 million to keep? when you can just go spend that money this year. It's like. Do you want Mayer/Teel/Montgomery??? Or do you want Burnes/FA1/FA2???? Given the teams history and budgetary constraints, I wouldn't have confidence in FA1 and FA2 being very good. You're astronomically better with option 1. You have to spend the money trading for an ACE if you want to keep him around, so why not just spend the money now. Depleting your system when you suck is like throwing in all your chips to try and be a .500 team. I don't want to be a .500 team, I want to compete for World Series Championships.

I mean, it would be better to be able to draft and develop your own. The problem with that is we don't. Breslow seems to be putting together the structure, but that takes years, and I can only imagine the carnage in the streets if the next several years looks like the last several. Even if Breslow does an amazing job at building up the future of this organzaiton, without help from ownership allowing him to spend he is either going to need time.....or he will have to get lucky and be a better dumpster diver than Bloom was.

From what we know now, I think it was the Dodgers all along. Reportedly the Mets offered more money, and he still didn't go back and give them or anyone else a chance to up their offer. Sox might of never been in on it regardless, but at this point, I think it's obvious Yama just wanted to go to LA and used other teams to get the best reported deal. I think we all kind of sensed this possibility when Ohtani signed that siginificantly AAV friendly deal.

Depending on the years, Montgomery probably gets somewhere in the $22-$27 million aav range. That's my guess. 5/$135 - $176/8. I can live with that.

Exactly, I'd love to get some good pitching in here. People will complain that we paid too much, people will complain about the contract not being worth it, etc etc etc. But I'd be much happier having that debate in here, than any of the other ones we've had the past few years.

They've been under on pretty much everyone so far. But tha's fine, so is everyone, including fans. It just feels that we always complain about them not signing free agents and then when they do we complain that they pay them too much. Of course, to be fair, when is the last time we signed a top teir free agent pitcher? Id much rather have that argument in here (that a guy is overpaid) than pretty much any other one we've had.

I won't be surprised if he gets at least 6 years.

That was my point. I hope that 150 is on point, I'd certainly take that in Boston. I don't expect anyone to be perfect in the prediction game. From a certain perspective MLBtraderumors is fairly accurate. I'd say if they're off on the 150/6 it's because someone is going an extra year to get him. So in a bidding war maybe he's getting 7/175 +/- a few

Doesn't matter. The present day value of Mookies contract was $285 million. Regardless, $460 today is $700 million in ten years. Just like Mookies $285 million was 365 spread out over 12 years. No one talks about contracts like that, they made it a thing with Ohtani, there will never be an Ohtani again. Point was, Point is, and continues to be that most of these free agents are getting more than their predictions. In either total dollars or AAV. Montgomery is getting a heck of a lot more than 105 million.

Yeah, ok, but how many other contracts do we report in present value? even a standard 8 year contract, if you wanted the present day value you would discount back to T=0. Techinically every MLB contract is not expressed in present day value. The disparity is just a little bigger for Ohtani because you're discounting back further due to the deferments. The 528 they predicted was NOT a present day value prediction either, it was a prediction of nominal value.

And moving to connecticut where the taxes are even higher.

They were over on the years with Gray, they projected 25 million AAV for him. They were way under on Ohtani 528 million to 700 million They were under on Yamamoto 225 million to 325 million They were under on Nola who supposedly took a team friendly deal 150 million to 172 million. Montgomery is projected to get $150 million. If you look at how off they've been at the top of the market, it shouldn't be surprising if Montgomery gets somewhere in the $175-$200 range. Not really sure where this 105 million number came from.

Every single year people say the prices are too high and I always say that's the market, and then the next year salaries just keep going up and up and up. Anything, ANYTHING, is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it. Mutliple teams offered Yamamoto over $300 million, that's the going rate for young high caliber pitchers. He's also younger, so Snell, Montgomery will probably get signinficantly less. $100 million is significantly less. I think both those guys are getting around $200 plus. Of course some will say "well lets just trade for a guy" ok....lets give up Mayer/Anthony + for a guy that we are just going to have to pay over $200 million. Corbin Burnes has publicly stated he plans on going to FA, Betts did the same thing but thats' because money talks, him and his agen have a dollar figure in mind. I wonder if anyone is willing to bet that number is less than $250 million???? This is the price of admission. Most of us aren't living on this island anymore, but no one can really be angry at the Sox for not getting any quality pitchers AND complain about the price of free agent contracts. I'm moving on to Montgomery + Giolito.