Hugh2

That was my point. I hope that 150 is on point, I'd certainly take that in Boston. I don't expect anyone to be perfect in the prediction game. From a certain perspective MLBtraderumors is fairly accurate. I'd say if they're off on the 150/6 it's because someone is going an extra year to get him. So in a bidding war maybe he's getting 7/175 +/- a few

Doesn't matter. The present day value of Mookies contract was $285 million. Regardless, $460 today is $700 million in ten years. Just like Mookies $285 million was 365 spread out over 12 years. No one talks about contracts like that, they made it a thing with Ohtani, there will never be an Ohtani again. Point was, Point is, and continues to be that most of these free agents are getting more than their predictions. In either total dollars or AAV. Montgomery is getting a heck of a lot more than 105 million.

Yeah, ok, but how many other contracts do we report in present value? even a standard 8 year contract, if you wanted the present day value you would discount back to T=0. Techinically every MLB contract is not expressed in present day value. The disparity is just a little bigger for Ohtani because you're discounting back further due to the deferments. The 528 they predicted was NOT a present day value prediction either, it was a prediction of nominal value.

And moving to connecticut where the taxes are even higher.

They were over on the years with Gray, they projected 25 million AAV for him. They were way under on Ohtani 528 million to 700 million They were under on Yamamoto 225 million to 325 million They were under on Nola who supposedly took a team friendly deal 150 million to 172 million. Montgomery is projected to get $150 million. If you look at how off they've been at the top of the market, it shouldn't be surprising if Montgomery gets somewhere in the $175-$200 range. Not really sure where this 105 million number came from.

Every single year people say the prices are too high and I always say that's the market, and then the next year salaries just keep going up and up and up. Anything, ANYTHING, is worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it. Mutliple teams offered Yamamoto over $300 million, that's the going rate for young high caliber pitchers. He's also younger, so Snell, Montgomery will probably get signinficantly less. $100 million is significantly less. I think both those guys are getting around $200 plus. Of course some will say "well lets just trade for a guy" ok....lets give up Mayer/Anthony + for a guy that we are just going to have to pay over $200 million. Corbin Burnes has publicly stated he plans on going to FA, Betts did the same thing but thats' because money talks, him and his agen have a dollar figure in mind. I wonder if anyone is willing to bet that number is less than $250 million???? This is the price of admission. Most of us aren't living on this island anymore, but no one can really be angry at the Sox for not getting any quality pitchers AND complain about the price of free agent contracts. I'm moving on to Montgomery + Giolito.

FULL THROTTLE!!!!!! with the car in park.

I mean, whose doesn't nowadays? Most pitchers, if they have long careers, are going to sustain some kind of injury at some point in there careers. Even a guy like Verlander who lasted a long time eventually got hurt. Pitching is unnatural.

A record setting contract to a pitcher over $300 million? no POBO on the planet was making that deal without the approval of ownership. Yamamoto didn't sign here because we didn't offer him the most money, Breslow can only offer what Henry approves of. If you believe he didn't want to come here because of recent track record, that's also on Henry. I think it should be painstakingly obvoius the problem here is Henry, Breslow can't make something out of nothing. no one can in one year.

I'll take the Rays track record here, he will become an ace and they will trade him in 3 years for a prospects.

https://boston.craigslist.org/gbs/acc/d/boston-sports-team-owner/7700293260.html lol

Wasn't he allegedly told that he had to put it into to laymen terms for these guys and he went right back into the board room and gave the same presentation worded differently and it went great? Supposedly the thing about Breslow is he can play both sides of the equation. He's a smarty, but he's also a ballplayer that understands all the things pros go through with or without the Yalie Jargon.

Agreed, I suppose I don't have to chance my tag line just yet with a few top teir pitchers still out there, but it ain't looking good. I will believe this team can make big moves after they actually make a couple.

The price for those guys was always going to be above $200 in my opinion. And no one else was able to sign them up until now either, so we can deduce it would have taken a substantial offer to get them to break their "wait and see" mode, that price tag was over $200 million. Always was. Honestly, they could be fine with Montgomery + Giolito. Jordan won't cost you a draft pick, and if Breslow/Bailey think they can fix Giolito he could be the pickup of the offseason. I honestly believe that we have more of a chance of signing Montgomery with Yamamoto going to LA opposed to NYY, if the Yankees signed Yamamoto they'd probably be ok with letting Cole opt out and walk. Why not? you can replace him with a 25 year old ace and take that money and try to resign Soto. (they couldn't have all three and avoid being over the threshold for a 4th year!!!!!) The Yankees won't have the same mentality with Montgomery, but LA would have made a strong run at him if the Yankees landed Yamamoto EDIT: just because they hypothetically have the best position to sign Montgomery doesn't mean they will. As a matter of fact they've put us in a position to believe they will not. I truly believe this, but I'm also starting to realize that all this means jack squat if ownership won't give Breslow the checkbook. I actually really like Breslow a lot, from his philosophy and focus on pitching and the guys he has brought in like Bailey. But the reality is, without allowing him the ability to go out and sign real pitching talent, it's going to take a few years for his system to get pitchers developed and into the majors. He doesn't have that with this fan base, they are going to do to Breslow what the Patriots did to Mac Jones. That's me being cynical perhaps, and assuming Breslow can't sign guys because of ownership is pure conjecture on my part. But I think I have very good reason to make that latter assumption. We are a big market team, and our biggest free agent signing the past ten years have been David Price and Trevor Story. And one of those guys signing is almost a decade apart from today.

Exactly, I'd rather suck for another year and do things right than freak out and overpay. The last thing I want to do is see this organization make a bunch of freaks out moves to turn this organization into decades of being the the Angels. Get a few stars and never go anywhere with them.

Honeslty, I don't even want a big trade. Whats the point? to try to become the Los Angeles Angels? Look at the best teams, they don't have a guy or two, they are STACKED!!!! Trading in all your chips to become 1/2 of a good team instead of 1/4 is the most futile thing ever. They needed to spend money. If Breslow is competent, he won't freak out and blow his load just because his boss is cheap.

I like Breslow, but it should be 100000000% obvious that his hands are already tied, and so will anyone else who comes in to do his job. His only path to building a winner is through the draft, and it's going to take years to hit on and gets some pitchers to the MLB level. Could circumnavigate that wait period if they actually wanted to spend money on pitching. But they wont.

I don't fully disagree, but you have to spend the money. Montgomery/Snell are the two best pitchers on the market and they're going to get $200 million plus. If we are not willing to stomach those financial committments as a fan base then we don't have a right to complain. We should be happy trying to be the Braves but only being the Athletics.

Sox ownership is officially on put up or shut up. And they're not putting anything up. Last year was the first year in almost 20 years I didn't go to a game, this year is looking like the second year. I like 2.5 hours from Fenway, it's a whole day/event to take time off from work, spend the gas, money on parking, food, tickets for me and GF/kids etc etc. All to see a last place team lose. To be fair, the offseason the Sox need to have is still there for the taking. They can sign Montgomery + plus add another #3type pitcher and a RHH 2nd baseman. I will retract my comments if they can do that, but as I said in the beginning. It's officially put up or shut up season and I've lost faith in this organization having the balls to compete. I'm going to take out an ad in Boston "fan base seeks wealthy ownership who actually cares about winning" I'll drop my money on that before I drop it on tickets.

Several years ago the Angels drafted 100% pitchers. That draft has been an absolute monumental bust for them. A. Pitchers are riskier B. If you can’t develop pitchers, you’re just wasting your picks. Sox obviously can’t develop pitchers, or at least have a very poor track record at it. If they went pitcher heavy the last several year the state of the organization would likely be much much worse If you want to draft and develop more pitchers, you should build a system to do so FIRST and simply not just take pitchers. Breslow is apparently doing just this

A second year of control is also a hedge on both Yorke and Mayer, and Story staying healthy for that matter. I'm a prospect homer, I have faith in all these guys, but the probability that one of those two is not much more than replacement level OR takes an extra year to develop is high. If you end up with a log jam because people are healthy and performing it's a good problem to have

A 1 year rental would come at a more reasonable price. I wouldn't hate a guy with an extra year of control.

^^^ Add - Sox are expected to make an upgrade at 2nd. Now maybe that's a big yawn move with plugging the hole with an aging Whit Merrifield, but they could trade for a guy who could easily be better than that. If the Sox add a good RHH 2nd baseman and get two good starters.....I don't think anyone would feel bad about the offense heading into the season.

Roki Sasaki is 22 years old, where is Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 25 and considered a free agent. Because he is under 25 years old Sasaki is subjected to the IFA rules. A team that lands him likely trades for as much IFA pool money as they can and maybe he gets around $10 million.

I think it helps to look at the long term horizon at times. Perhaps this isn't the year for the Sox, maybe they see their window starting in 2025, but if you like a pitcher in this years market better than what may come next year why not go out and make that move now? Yamamoto is going to improve this team in 2024, but beyond that as well. Now maybe it's Montgomery/Snell/Burnes etc.