While it's certainly true injuries can be predictable, as they can be chronic issues that fester up over time, often they're acute injuries in which a physical is going to show nothing wrong.
This is part of the sport, and it's almost expected nowadays that every pitcher is going to need some kind of surgery at some point in their career.
It just really sucks when it happen to a guy you just signed.
I think the question now is. Does Giolitos injury make (or should it make) the Sox more desperate to sign someone like Montgomery? or does it make them more likely to save their bullets for another day and say "f*** it" lets roll with what we have and see what we have with these kids, and then we might know who we want to build around for 2025 and beyond?????
I say you split the difference, you have an idea of what you think Jordan is worth, and clearly no other team has beat you to it, so you stand your ground. He can help in 2024 and beyond, but it's not worth overpaying at this point for anyone.