Nick

Biggest bang for buck is Porcello but I think we will need him.

Looking at Cot's contracts and assuming Young, Moreland and Abad is gone. We have at most $23M to absorb the arbitration increases for following players. (First amounts are their salary for 2017) Assuming we'll blow by the cap by $20M but avoid the 2nd tier penalties, can we add couple of pieces and keep it under $43M from this year's pay? (I've already accounted for increases in pay for Kimbrel, Sale, etc) Pomeranz, Drew $4,450,000 a3 Kelly, Joe $2,800,000 a3 Ross, Robbie $1,825,000 a3 Bogaerts, Xander $4,500,000 a2 Bradley, Jackie Jr. $3,600,000 a2 Thornburg, Tyler $2,050,000 a2 Holt, Brock $1,950,000 a2 Leon, Sandy $1,300,000 a2 Rutledge, Josh $600,000 a2 Betts, Mookie $950,000 a1 Wright, Steve $593,500 a1 Rodriguez, Eduardo $584,500 a1 Vazquez, Christian $561,000 a1 Smith, Carson $556,750 a1 Barnes, Matt $563,500 Benintendi, Andrew $549,000 Hembree, Heath $547,000 Scott, Robby $537,000 I would assume Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly, Xander Bogaerts, JBJ, Mookie Betts and E Rod are all due for healthy raises. If those raises average $4M, that's total of $24M before Vaz and Leon. We may have to trade someone like Ross. Brock Holt maybe another candidate if Lin can play corner OF in addition to CF. Really need for Carson Smith and Thornburg to become healthy again. Moon? Bueller? Moon? Bueller? Moon? Moon?

I'm not sure if we sign Betre, we can stay under the cap.

I just hope he doesn't kill a fly with the "mother of all bombs".

Good catch........I also think it was never intended by either party to get into a long term deal. Perfect opportunity for Beltre to showcase his talents and for Red Sox to have a solid player at 3B. Little bit like Moreland for the Sox this year. Obviously Moreland isn't the player Beltre was few years ago.

Starting Pitching is just fine, unless you empty out the farm completely and go after top of the line pitcher. Obviously that ain't happening. Middle of the road starting pitching does Sox no good. Assuming E Rod comes back healthy, we should be in great shape the rest of the year. We have as much quality as anyone in the league 1-5. We also have Fiester, Johnson, etc as a back up. Relief Pitching....I'm just not a big fan of Barnes. He comes in last night and promptly walks the first batter on 4 pitches. What the HELL? Didn't he warm up properly in the pen? His pitches were not even close. To me, he does not pitch with a sense of urgency. I just don't like the way he looks on the mound. Yeah, it's personal. Where in the hell are we with Carson Smith? Is he coming back this year? I just don't understand the injury situation with our club. It just seems so unpredicable. 3B....my message is you try EVERYTHING before relinquishing prospects for a rental. DEVERS. What the f*** are we afraid of? Even in a small sample size, Lin has performed well for us. HE'S f***ING PLAYING BETTER IN MLB THAN HE WAS AT AA. It's a crapshoot. Are you telling me that NONE of you ever had someone come out of nowhere in your lifetime and exceeded your expectations? Do you think anyone in Yankee organization expected 30 FREAKING home runs from a rookie? You just need a guy at 3B playing good defense. I can't imagine Devers being any worse than Lin/Marrero. He might surprise us all. But you know what? You can't win the powerball if you don't buy a ticket.

I'm against any trade that blocks Devers from playing at Fenway next year.

I agree with you completely. This team needs help. Try Devers. If he fails go get another player. Our pitching is coming around. Why waste it? Regarding Devers. I'm reminded of a line from Animal House. "Grab a brew. Don't cost nothing." My exact sentiment on Devers.

JF didn't have an issue inserting Xander the other day in an extra inning game. JBJ one of the guys that can hit the ball out of park. Puzzling to say the least.

All he has to do is to play defense. Others are only hitting .230 or so. Give him a week and see what happens. Again, upside is far greater than downside. Supposedly his defense is solid. How much worse can he do than say Pablo?

He seem to have a higher ceiling than Porcello right now. I think his cutter will get better. Just with his easy motion, his fastballs seem to explode without touching 96-97 mph. His problem is still his control.

Jackie Bradley Jr. becomes a FA after 2019. He was worth $38.8 mil last yr and is on pace to repeat that this season. Once again, I think it is unlikely he sees that amount, but I think $22 mil per season on the open market is reasonable for a defensive whiz at a premium position who can hit for a mid .800s OPS with 20HR power Actually after 2020....He'll have 4 years of arbitration. But you're spot on. On a side note, I read somewhere while back how much it's worth for a team like Yankees to make it to the post season. I saw a figure of about $50M in additional revenue for making it to the World Series. Something that Henry should think about. Not a sure thing but it certainly helps the bottom line.

good point....Yankees probably should go after Darvish regardless? I'm assuming they will part ways with Sabathia and his $25M? (not resign him)

In regards to impending 'cliff'... Assuming Devers takes over at 3B in 2018. Yankees 29 seasons under contract for 9 position players. Red Sox 36 seasons under contract for 9 position players. If Moreland is replaced by Travis, number jumps to 41 seasons. The point I'm making is we're not in any worse shape than the Yankees. Our window of opportunity is just as big as the Yankees.

Is it safe to assume that Tanaka will opt out of his contract this fall? He's got $67M remaining through 2020. I'm assuming he can do better? or Not?

Bullpen...FA year Kimbrel 2019 Kelly 2019 Thornburg 2020 Smith 2021 Barnes 2022 Hembree 2022 Scott 2023 Starters Pomeranz 2019 (I predict he'll be extended before 2019, maybe similar to Porcello, announced on Opening Day 2018 his final arb year, 4 yr $80M should do it) C Sale 2020 Porcello 2020 Wright 2021 Ed Rod 2022 D Price 2023 Xander 2020 Betts 2021 JBJ 2021 Leon 2021 Vazquez 2021 Pedroia 2022 Beni 2023 Travis 2024 Devers 2024 at the earliest Keep in mind that there will be a new CBA for 2022, Conceivably 2021 maybe the rough year from luxury tax penalties. Basically we'll have the same team for 3 years with extension of Pom and Kimbrel. It's 4 years with Xander extension or we may be okay without him. I'm assuming we sign Sale. I still say we're in good shape. You can't ask for much more than a 4 year window in today's climate.

We can probably keep Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross for 2019 and beyond, but with rising arb costs and an option raise for Sale (add $6M to his AVV) and possible extensions to one or two of our young studs, we may be pushing the maximum penalty phase by going $20M over the luxury limit. Moon We can survive without Kelly and Ross. Bullpen is an easy fix. We're turning 80% of minor league starters into relievers. Smith and Thornburg eventually will get healthy. I also like to think that by 2020 someone other than Groome will come to surface from current crop of college pitchers in our system. I agree with you on HanRam. Stats don't always lie....platooning is not a bad idea except for JBJ. We need his D in CF and he hitting lefthanders well. It's a long season. A guy like Moreland needs to sit from time to time just to keep fresh.

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/29/searching-for-a-spark/ Good read on Sox lack of power (yeah I know they hit 3 last night). Going forward (2018) we need better power production from 3B, 1B and DH. Devers will take care of 3B. Hanley needs to get healthy. Our starting pitching and bullpen can only get better. (Porcello can anti-regress from his regression year). We just need some depth. Hopefully Wright can return to his early 2016 form. Smith, Thornburg and plethora of viable options in our farm system bode well for the pen next year. Final contract year for Kimbrel. Bullpen...FA year Kimbrel 2019 Kelly 2019 Thornburg 2020 Smith 2021 Barnes 2022 Hembree 2022 Scott 2023 Starters Pomeranz 2019 (I predict he'll be extended before 2019, maybe similar to Porcello, announced on Opening Day 2018 his final arb year, 4 yr $80M should do it) C Sale 2020 Porcello 2020 Wright 2021 Ed Rod 2022 D Price 2023 We need 1 starter to emerge from the farm by 2020, that's not asking for much is it? Flip side of having so many young players is that arbitration cost will get extremely high over next three years. But with luxury tax reset this year, Sox will not be afraid to break through it next few years. We just need to get the $40M off the books in 2020 with Hanley and Pablo. Throw in another $20M for Porcello. $60M to sign Sale and Xander plus 'hangover' from whatever it took to sign Kimbrel the previous year. Then, how do you sign Betts and JBJ? We may need to rotate DH position by regulars and utility players.

Boston Red Sox sign 4th-round draft pick Jake Thompson, a righty who went 14-1 for Oregon State The Red Sox signed fourth-round draft pick Jake Thompson who went 14-1 with a 1.96 ERA in 20 outings (19 starts) for Oregon State this spring. The Red Sox selected him 131st overall when MLBPipeline.com ranked him the No. 71 prospect entering the draft. Baseball America ranked him the No. 83 prospect. He has been assigned to Short Season Lowell. I believe today was the deadline.

Very good day for Red Sox. Beat Rays. Toronto lost. Orioles lost. Yankees are down 4-9 in 8th. I'm impressed with Lin. He has a quick bat. Good glove. Lin and Marrero are better defenders than Pablo at 3B. Key hit was Lin's, then Marrero's sacrifice. It's always good to score first. (And score that magical 4 runs) Looking at other box scores, despite all the consternation, our pitching is superior to those of our division rivals. For now at least, Lin and Marrero are very productive.

On the other hand, we've had success over the years making starters throw tons of pitches to get them out of there. I'm not sure if it's as critical taking pitches against relievers unless they are having trouble throwing strikes. (Barnes comes to mind for us).

S Leon 46 games 154 AB Vazquez 45 games 154 AB

But my point was especially in case of Crawford, that was a poker hand we should not have ever played.

He heard me....Hey I have no pride...I'm all about Sox winning...lol

Benintendi needs to pick up his defense. He is so nonchalant. Dropped a routine fly ball the other day. He should had the ball in the foul territory. Hell it was almost a fair ball. He ain't no JBJ nor Betts.