Nick

Opening Thread by our esteem colleague, Moon posted on March 30th A Realistic View at 2017 Part II With opening day just around the corner, and the roster taking shape, it's time for Part II. (Part I reference: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads...at-2017-Part-I ) Here's my Red Sox positional depth chart (assuming 100% healthy): C: Leon, Vazquez, Swihart (AAA), Butler (AAA) 1B: Moreland (vs RHPs)/ Ramirez (vs LHPs- DH vs RHPs), Travis (AAA), Craig? 2B: Pedroia, Hernandez (AAA), Holt, Rutledge 3B: Sandoval, Hernandez (AAA), Rutledge, Holt SS: Bogaerts, Hernandez (AAA), Holt, Marrero (AAA) LF: Benintendi, Young (DH vs LHPs), Slesky (AAA), Moreland, Brentz (Trade/DFA) CF: Bradley, (Beni from LF), Holt RF: Betts, Young, Holt, Moreland SP: Sale, Price, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright, Pomeranz (long relief) AAA: Kendrick, Johnson, Elias, Owens, Velazquez, Haviland RP: Kimbrel, Thornburg, Smith, Kelly, Ross, Hembree 4 options at 3B is not playing for the parent team right now.....pretty amazing. And look at our relievers. I'd say to be up 3 games is pretty fortunate. Sale and Kimbrel have been lights out.

He may walk if he can get $30M for 4 years but I don't see a market for him at that price. Say what you will but he will not walk for less money. Baseball players do not get the big endorsement shoe contracts that basketball players do. NBA guys can take a cut in pay and still make money. Not so much in baseball. Ortiz endorsement is nowhere close to what NBA stars are getting.

I don't see us giving up Devers for Donaldson.

1/6 x 9/1 = 9/6 = 1.5 ERA

What's the difference between a "ready" player failing and a "not ready" player failing? Just as management make mistakes on 'ready' player, they could easily make a mistake on 'not ready' player. Is it possible that Will Middlebrooks was never cut out to be a long term major leaguer? I completely reject the notion that if you don't first succeed you're doomed? Jackie Bradley Jr. vehemently disagrees with you.

I do want to point out that Sox went 85 years without a world series ring. When you're close, do you throw kitchen sink at it?

I'd like to see him opt out. My only comment was good or bad, DD did what he had to and I understand why he did it. He didn't much have choice. That said, his $31M would certainly come into handy in keeping young kids together. I hope we opt out. As I've said, I can see DD extending Pomeranz' contract. That's his guy. ONE THING WE'VE NOT CONSIDERED IS THAT CURRENT CBA ENDS ON DEC 1, 2021. Expect luxury amount to increase.

We're the only team to have signed 3 in top 30 (2, 13, 20). Yankees signed two so far. (4, 16). 5 players remain unsigned in top 30.

Assuming we hold the 15-1 lead, here's updated record by starting pitchers. 44-26 when the BIG 5 starts. Pitcher GS W L Chris Sale 17 13-4 R Porcello 17 7-10 Pomeranz 16 10-6 Edward Rod 10 7-3 David Price 7 4-3 Brian Johnson 4 4-0 Wright 5 1-4 Vlazques 2 0-2 Kendrick 2 0-2 Fister 2 1-1 Total 82 47 35

We need to tip our hats off to the Sox scouting department. We seem to uncovered them and find a way to sign them despite constant effort to equalize the playing field by mlb.

Price's contract is what we had to do to get him. It was no one's fault other than those that put us in a back to back last place finishes. Do I need to remind anyone of Lester fiasco? Hiring of DD was a mandate by the ownership group for the baseball people to do whatever it takes to become relevant again. We don't win last year without Price pitching 200+ innings. We still had to go get Pomeranz when Kelly, Buchholtz, E Rod and Wright all went through down periods. He's only 1 1/2 years into his contract. Shouldn't we give him at least 3 years before we criticize him? Injuries are part of the game. It's not as though he gained 30lbs and got out of shape. I just don't see the hate coming at him from all angles. His fastball touched 97 mph last game. Why tear down a player? His money is not an albatross the size of Pablo's.

Daniel Flores, C, Venezuela Flores is the second-ranked player in the class according to Baseball America, and some teams reportedly have him as their number one player. The catcher is known mostly for his defensive chops, as he’s already an elite backstop. Specifically, he already gets the ball to second base at elite pop times and does well blocking pitches. Offensively, Flores is a switch-hitter who relies more on power right now but has plenty of potential to develop as an all-around force at the plate. Danny Diaz, SS, Venezuela The Red Sox are likely to stick in Venezuela for their next top-rated international prospect in Diaz. Although he is listed as a shortstop, he is almost certain to move to the hot corner and could do so as soon as he signs. Ranked as the seventh best international prospect by Baseball America, he is the anti-Flores as he’s known for his bat more than his glove. The big infielder is projected to have above-average power potential and could have an above-average hit tool as well. He’s expected to be able to stick at third base given his strong throwing arm and quick hands, but he’ll have to keep his size in check to avoid moving across the diamond. Antoni Flores, SS, Venezuela Flores is the final top-50 prospect connected to the Red Sox and comes in at number 35 on Baseball America’s rankings. He is clearly a step below the other names listed here, but scouts rave about his makeup. It’s unclear whether or not he’ll be able to stick at shortstop at this point, but he’ll probably need to stay in the middle infield to have value due to a bat that doesn’t project to grow all that much. UPDATE According to Baseball America, the Red Sox have agreed to deals with all three of the players listed above as well as shortstop Nelfy Abreu out of the Dominican Republic and shortstop Denny Daza out of Venezuela. None of the signing bonuses have been announced at this time, and the bonuses for the players out of Venezuela may take longer to be announced at the request of the family of the players. HELP IS ON THE WAY KIMMI

Red Sox trade Nick Longhi to Cincinnati for international bonus pool money It appears we picked up some talented 16 year olds in the international draft. There's now a hard cap based on team's finish from prior year but pool money slots can be traded. Sox went way over the hard cap amount (say $4.6M or so) so they needed 'additonal money'. Thus the trade.

sure would be nice to get 'good' Carson Smith back before September.

Yes....that in itself will determine the depth of the impending cliff that we're all going down on!!!!!

Hopefully that someone will be better than Aaron Hill.

I would first wait and see where E Rod is. I then would wait and see how close C Smith is to returning. I suppose Fister could fill in for E Rod. I still think we need another bullpen arm. I would try our guys in the minors first. I think we have some options there. I'd still like to see us give Devers a look. This is sort of 'freebie' year for Devers. We will still have him under team control for 2018-2023. He's NOT going to need all of his 'options'. I doubt he'll run into using up all of his option years. All he needs to do is to play some defense. I just can't see him hitting worse than Marrero. I just hate to give up top talent at this point for a rental. Say what you will but Kimbrel had three years, Pomeranz, two and a half years and Sale had three years left on their contract at the time of the trade. Ziegler was the only rental, and we needed him.

this! (basically we should have just written a check for $95M and cut him so his bwar would be 0.0)

I wasn't talking about you or your recent post. Perfect scenario is for us to win in both 2017 and 2018 with Price having great years, then opting out. We could use that money and use it to keep Xander, JBJ, Betts and Chris Freakin' Sale. I just want the Sox to win. Fans will be there if we're winning. Let's see where Sale is in two years. Who the freak knows, he may be declining by then.

Here's the team record by starting pitchers. Pitcher W-L Sale 13-4 Porcello 7-10 Pomeranz 9-6 E Rod 7-3 Price 4-3 Johnson 4-0 Wright 1-4 Fister 1-1 Vlazques 0-2 (his win came as a reliever, not a starter) Kendrick 0-2 Total 81 46 35 Sale accounts for +9 of +11 win margins for the Sox. Despite spring training woes, Pomeranz has been more durable than E Rod and Price. Johnson has negated crappy pitching out of Wright and Kendrick. We are 14-7 in games where the starter is not on the record as a winning/losing pitcher. Perhaps indication of good bullpen? I hope we retain Fister. He competes on the mound. Nice back up as #7 pitcher/long reliever. We are +14 from our BIG 5 starters. They just need to get healthy as a group. It's a quality starting unit.

Ok, I will have a conversation with myself. Take a quick look at Sox/Yankees comparison. According to Moon, Yanks have outscored us by 68 runs despite having played 2 less games. Yet we led by a full game before today's games. Here are the records of two teams by run differentials. Sox Evil Empire 1 11-8 9-15 2 16-15 13-18 (cumulative, +1 and +2 combined) 3 28-23 17-25 (cumulative +1, +2, +3 combined) 4 33-24 22-30 (cumulative, +1 through +4 combined) 5+ 12-11 21-5 Basically we won with pitching. We are 33-24 in games decided by 4 runs or less, Yankees are 22-30. Yankees have out hit their way to 21-5 record in games decided by 5 runs or more. Sox are only 12-11. This makes sense as to why the Yankees have outscored us by a ton yet trail the Sox in standings. Yankees need pitching. DD was right in trading for Sale and passing on Encarnacion during the off season. You can't fault him for trading for Thornburg either. Pitching still wins championships. Brilliant.

I'd like to see a stat by each team, how many different run differential games are won or lost. Losing a 7-8 game gives us very rosy run production picture but we lost. On the other hand, winning 1-0 shows us as being bad offensively. So anyone out there with tons of free time? Analyze games won by run differential of 1, 2, 3 etc. Then analyze games lost by run differential of 1, 2, 3 etc. Where do good teams fall? Bad teams. Is it simply that 'good' teams have more +1, +2 run differential games than 'bad' teams? I thought Kansas City had been outscored this year but has a winning record? I'm not sure gross runs scored means winning.

I just don't think we can evaluate his and Kimbrel's signings in a vaccum. New guy in charge with DD. Just coming off back to back last place finishes. The team has spoiled us with 3 World Championships in this century and we think we're entitle to more. We now hate losing and we don't accept it. DD wanted top of the line starting pitcher. Sure it's easy to second guess the amount and the length but we paid what we thought was market value to get Price. And we did get into the playoffs. Let's wait and see how he does. We're only 1 1/2 years into his contract. But this is why you draft a kid like Groome and develop him. I think having to spend $210M on a 30 year old pitcher says more about Sox's inability to develop pitchers than anything else. What was DD suppose to do? He delivered.

Moon, how long do we hang on to Blake Swihart? I'm getting more and more comfortable with the tandem we have now. Can he be the 4th OF or the 3rd catcher? What trade value does he have? If and when Devers moves up, I'm comfortable with middle of the road offensive catchers with superior defensive skills.

If we win the world series in 2017, 2018 or 2019, I can care less. He can't be any worse than Pablo tenure we've had to endure. $18M for NOTHING. 200+ quality innings for $31M. BTW, we don't win last year without him. I suppose you all want to go back to last place finishes.